# Knights v Eels — NRL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 28 – 22 Eels

_Knights charge down a gallant Eels._

Half time: 12 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 74% / Eels 26% · McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle · Sat, 30 May, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Dylan Lucas (3' 1st Tipped 🎯), Greg Marzhew (22' Tipped ⚡), Harrison Graham (44'), Dylan Lucas (59' 1st Tipped 🎯), Fletcher Hunt (70') · Eels: Brian Kelly (9' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Walker (29'), Jordan Samrani (63' Tipped ⚡), Isaiah Iongi (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 74% | Won |
| Eels | 26% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.2 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:41 pm · Last updated: 3 June 2026, 01:39 am_

Knights 28–22 Eels in NRL Round 13 at McDonald Jones Stadium, Newcastle. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty-one tackle breaks to 27, and it wasn't the Knights doing the missing. Newcastle beat Parramatta 28-22 at McDonald Jones Stadium, and the game turned on exactly that gap: the Knights busted the line 41 times while the Eels' defence went missing on 41 tackles of its own. Two sides trading the same number for opposite reasons tends to settle a match, and it did here.

The scoreboard moved early and kept moving. Dylan Lucas opened it inside two minutes, Brian Kelly hit back for the Eels by the 9th, and from there it was a genuine arm-wrestle: Greg Marzhew restored the Knights' buffer at 22 minutes, Dylan Walker answered before the break to leave it 12-10 at half-time. Nobody was running away with anything early. Harrison Graham's try in the 44th nudged the margin out, but it was Lucas's second, in the 58th minute, that made it a two-score game at 22-10 and gave Newcastle something to defend. Jordan Samrani and Isaiah Iongi kept clawing the Eels back late, either side of Fletcher Hunt's try in the 70th, but the Knights had banked enough.

The possession numbers tell you why this one felt tighter than the final margin suggests. Parramatta ran 54% of the ball and out-gained the Knights on the ground, 1,686 metres to 1,560, with 509 post-contact metres to 455. That's a forward pack getting go-forward. But go-forward without control doesn't win you the game, and the Eels' handling let them down where it counted: 15 offloads sounds like a side playing with ambition, except a chunk of that ball ended up back with Newcastle through missed tackles and broken plays.

Because the Knights weren't just cleaner, they were sharper. A 73% completion rate against 71%, six line breaks to four, and that 41-to-27 tackle break count all point to a team getting more out of less ball. The pre-match ratings had Newcastle well ahead in every backline department, backs at 1024 to 815 and halves at 980 to 814, and on this evidence that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect: in broken-field metres and busted tackles, not in raw possession.

Parramatta's discipline didn't help their cause either. Three penalties conceded to the Knights' six looks like an edge on paper, but it's the missed tackles that actually cost points, and 41 misses in a game decided by six is not a small number.

Alphr's model had Newcastle at 74% to win and picked the margin at 8.2, with the actual result landing at six points, ratings of 1498 to 1352 doing their job without overreaching. The under on 53.5 total points came in too, with the game finishing at 50. Not a bad reads across the board, even if this one from ten came home. The Eels, for their part, leaked in exactly the areas their form suggested they might, an average of 30.6 points conceded across their last five matching up with a night where their line simply couldn't hold.

Newcastle's forward and hooker edges, 984 to 829 and 1032 to 883 pre-match, translated into a performance that didn't need to dominate the ball to win the game. Just the moments that mattered, and enough of them.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| Eels | 10 | 12 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 46% | Possession | **54%** |
| **73%** | Completion rate | 71% |
| 1,560 | Run metres | **1,686** |
| 455 | Post-contact metres | **509** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **41** | Tackle breaks | 27 |
| 9 | Offloads | **15** |
| **84.7%** | Effective tackle % | 82.7% |
| **27** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| **12** | Errors | 13 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 536 | Kick metres | **571** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 74% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Knights by 8.2 vs the actual margin of 6 points. The model went 10/17 on this match. Eels covered the 14.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 9' Try — Brian Kelly (Eels) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 22' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 28' Try — Dylan Walker (Eels) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 44' Try — Harrison Graham (Knights) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 58' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 22-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 63' Try — Jordan Samrani (Eels) — 24-14 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 70' Try — Fletcher Hunt (Knights) — 28-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 73' Try — Isaiah Iongi (Eels) — 28-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.22 (edge -4.5%) — model probability 73.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Eels +14.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 8 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Knights here: 74% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 146 ELO points clear, 1498 to 1352. Form leans Knights' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Eels.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Knights by 8.2, with the two sides combining for about 44. Knights to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Eels have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 28-22 in 2026 Round 13.

Eels are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Knights 5th against Eels 14th.

The market has Knights favourites, Knights $1.22 and Eels $4.35, with the line at Knights -14.5 and the total at 53.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 2 · Eels 8 |
| Last meeting | Knights 28-22 |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Knights 5th · Eels 14th |
| Finals odds | Knights 100% · Eels 0% |
| Market | Knights $1.22 · Eels $4.35 |
| Line | Knights -14.5 · total 53.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 31.6pts | Avg Score | 22.2pts |
| 28.4pts | Avg Conceded | 30.6pts |
| 3.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.4pts |
| 1627.4m | Run Metres | 1594.4m |
| 7.4 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 3W–2L | 31.6 |
| Eels | 2W–3L | 22.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R27 | Eels | 66 – 10 | Knights |
| 2025 | R11 | Knights | 6 – 28 | Eels |
| 2024 | R17 | Knights | 34 – 26 | Eels |
| 2023 | R9 | Eels | 43 – 12 | Knights |
| 2022 | R7 | Knights | 2 – 39 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (2.09 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.91 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 14 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.45 conceded/game). Key man: Silva, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.09/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.09/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.91/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.64/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.45/g (def 17th (weak)) | 2/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2.36/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.45/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 8th) | 0.82/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 16th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 13 | 8 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 210m/g | 131m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 81.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 40 · 26 | 23 · 35 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 734m/g | 673m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.1/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75% | 77.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 10 | 6 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 500m/g | 483m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 8.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 89% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Centres 1.07/g (lg 0.73) +47% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43%
**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.22) +50% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at McDonald Jones Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 31/60g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 14 in 11g | 13/10g (2·0·3·2·1·0·0·0·2·3) | 4/3g | 28/34g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.37 AI 82% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 9/17g | 26/112g | 16% | — | — |
| 4 | Fletcher Sharpe | CE | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 14/14g | 47% | — | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 14 in 10g | 14/10g (1·1·1·0·2·0·0·3·5·1) | 4/5g | 27/34g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.36 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 4/82g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 8/58g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 0/1g | 7/29g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 3' 59' |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 2/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/47g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 9% | — | 🏉 44' |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 10/57g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/20g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cody Hopwood | RES | 0 in 8g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 2 in 4g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 27% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $18.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 74' |
| 2 | Brian Kelly | WG | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/15g | 1/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 51% ✓ Scored | 🏉 9' |
| 3 | Jordan Samrani | CE | 1 in 4g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 45% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 63' |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0) | 14/16g | 7/7g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Joash Papalii | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 7 | Ronald Volkman | HB | 3 in 6g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Luca Moretti | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 4 in 11g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kelma Tuilagi | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 15% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 9/16g | 1/5g | 10% | — | 🏉 29' |
| 15 | Charlie Guymer | RES | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Toni Mataele | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Harrison Edwards | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1498 · Eels 1352 · ELO difference: 146 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 984 | 829 | Knights +155 |
| Backs | 1024 | 815 | Knights +209 |
| Halves | 980 | 814 | Knights +166 |
| Hooker | 1032 | 883 | Knights +149 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 74%** — Knights predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-02 15:39 UTC (latest tip update)