# Broncos v Dragons — NRL Round 13 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Broncos 26 – 30 Dragons

_Dragons survive a scare against Broncos._

Half time: 2 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Broncos 78% / Dragons 22% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 31 May, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Broncos: Jesse Arthars (50' Tipped ⚡), Josiah Karapani (69' Tipped ⚡), Xavier Willison (74'), Jesse Arthars (80' Tipped ⚡) · Dragons: Valentine Holmes (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Daniel Atkinson (9'), Mathew Feagai (55'), Valentine Holmes (58' 1st Tipped 🎯), Setu Tu (61' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 78% | Lost |
| Dragons | 22% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.1 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Brisbane Broncos vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 13 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 2 June 2026, 07:41 pm · Last updated: 3 June 2026, 02:38 am_

Broncos 26–30 Dragons in NRL Round 13 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos finished the arm-wrestle with the better line break count, six to three, and more metres on the ground, 1,971 to 1,908. On paper that's the sharper attacking side. Problem is footy isn't decided on paper, and Broncos handed the Dragons too many easy metres by missing 36 tackles to 28, with an effective tackle rate of just 86.3% against 89.3%. Sixteen errors didn't help either, against Dragons' 11.

That completion gap tells the story of a side that had the ball plenty but couldn't do much productive with it. Broncos completed at only 68%, Dragons at 81%. Dragons also busted more tackles, 36 to 28, and offloaded more, 9 to 7, so even with less footy they made theirs count.

None of that stopped Broncos going in as clear favourites. The ratings had them well ahead across the park: forwards 976 to 744, backs 923 to 764, halves 975 to 730, hooker 981 to 707. Alphr's model had Broncos winning 78% of the time and covering by 12.1 points on a combined total of 47. Dragons arrived on the back of an 0-5 form line and were conceding 38.8 points a game. This was meant to be routine.

It wasn't. Dragons scored twice inside the first nine minutes, Valentine Holmes opening the account in the 5th and Daniel Atkinson following in the 9th, and Broncos found themselves down 14-2. From there Dragons never trailed. Broncos clawed one back through Jesse Arthars in the 50th minute to make it 6-14, but Dragons had an answer ready. Mathew Feagai crossed in the 55th, Holmes grabbed his second in the 58th, and Setu Tu made it three tries in six minutes with one in the 60th. Suddenly it was 8-30 and the contest looked done.

Broncos didn't fold, though credit where it's due, they at least made the scoreboard respectable. Josiah Karapani scored in the 68th, Xavier Willison in the 73rd, and Arthars grabbed his second in the 79th to drag it back to 24-30. It made for a nervy finish but Dragons held on, 30-26.

Penalties tell an odd side note here. Dragons conceded seven to Broncos' two, yet still won comfortably enough in the end. Sometimes field position and forward dominance just don't matter as much as what you do with the ball in hand, and Dragons did plenty with theirs.

For Alphr's model, this one's a miss to own. Backing Broncos at 78% with a 12.1-point margin looked reasonable given the positional gulf and recent form split, Broncos averaging 18.6 points a game to Dragons' 11.2. Instead Dragons won by 4 and covered a 19.5-point line with room to spare. The model finished 6 from 17 on the card. Wins and misses, all of it, and this was very much a miss.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 2 | 24 | 26 |
| Dragons | 14 | 16 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Broncos | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 68% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| **1,971** | Run metres | 1,908 |
| 535 | Post-contact metres | **551** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 28 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 7 | Offloads | **9** |
| 86.3% | Effective tackle % | **89.3%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **28** |
| 16 | Errors | **11** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 661 | Kick metres | **675** |

**Model Report Card**

Dragons defied the model's 78% prediction for Broncos, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.1 but the actual margin was 4 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. Dragons covered the 19.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (47 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 6 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Dragons bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 60% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 62% career home-team win rate, the away side Dragons prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 9' Try — Daniel Atkinson (Dragons) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 50' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 6-14 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 55' Try — Mathew Feagai (Dragons) — 8-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 58' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 8-24 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 60' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 8-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 68' Try — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 12-30 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 73' Try — Xavier Willison (Broncos) — 18-30 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 79' Try — Jesse Arthars (Broncos) — 24-30 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.11 (edge -7.9%) — model probability 77.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +19.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Broncos 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 12 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Broncos here: 78% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 212 ELO points clear, 1444 to 1232. Form leans Broncos' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Broncos by 12.1, with the two sides combining for about 47. Broncos to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Dragons have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 30-26 in 2026 Round 13.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four; Broncos are 2-10 at home this year. Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year. Broncos have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Broncos 11th against Dragons 17th.

The market has Broncos favourites, Broncos $1.11 and Dragons $6.70, with the line at Broncos -19.5 and the total at 54.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 16.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 1.0 sin bins a game, home sides win 62% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Broncos 2 · Dragons 8 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 30-26 |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos at home | 2-10 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Broncos 11th · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Broncos 0% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Broncos $1.11 · Dragons $6.70 |
| Line | Broncos -19.5 · total 54.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 16.2 pens/g · 1.0 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Wyatt Raymond** — 47 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 60% |
| Dragons | 1W–4L | 20% |

Avg total: 49.9 pts · Home win %: 62% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Broncos have won 3 of 5 games (60%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 1 from 5 (20%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 62% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (5 games for Broncos).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Broncos | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 18.6pts | Avg Score | 11.2pts |
| 28.8pts | Avg Conceded | 38.8pts |
| -10.2pts | Avg Margin | -27.6pts |
| 1292.4m | Run Metres | 1497.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 2.4 |
| 300.0 | Tackles | 300.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 2W–3L | 18.6 |
| Dragons | 0W–5L | 11.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dragons lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R11 | Broncos | 26 – 30 | Dragons |
| 2024 | R19 | Broncos | 26 – 30 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R3 | Broncos | 40 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2022 | R25 | Dragons | 22 – 12 | Broncos |
| 2022 | R17 | Broncos | 32 – 18 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 13th-ranked left edge attack (0.91 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.18 conceded/game). Key man: Karapani, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 13th-ranked left edge attack (0.91 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 6th there (1.09 conceded/game). Key man: Stewart, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Broncos | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.91/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.09/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.91/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 2.18/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.82/g (att 7th) · concedes 2/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.55/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.82/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.64/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.09/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Broncos | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 10 | 2 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 130m/g | 147m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.1% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Broncos | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 26 | 15 · 45 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 605m/g | 643m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.5/g | 12/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 74.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Broncos | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 6 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 536m/g | 538m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.2% | 92.3% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.36/g (lg 0.22) +64% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.46) +37% · Fullbacks 0.58/g (lg 0.43) +35%
**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Locks 0.15/g (lg 0.1) +50% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.72) +25%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 23/40g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.45 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 9/21g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.42 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 8/8g | 48/85g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 13/26g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 18/54g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.53 AI 56% ✓ Scored | 🏉 50' 80' |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/4g | 21/42g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·2) | 6/20g | 12/64g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Preston Riki | PR | 0 in 3g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 6/48g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 9/84g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/30g | 12% | — | — |
| 12 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 3 in 11g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 7/36g | 20% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/72g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/12g | 26/117g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/10g | 23% | — | — |
| 16 | Va'a Semu | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jack Gosiewski | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/20g | 14% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 11/16g | 8/17g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/9g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 3/10g | 3/19g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 18% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $20.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/14g | 6/15g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 11% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' 58' |
| 5 | Mathew Feagai | WG | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 2/6g | 12% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 6% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 4/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 0 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 27% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Blake Lawrie | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/15g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 3/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Luciano Leilua | RES | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 2/15g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Broncos 1444 · Dragons 1232 · ELO difference: 212 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Broncos | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 976 | 744 | Broncos +232 |
| Backs | 923 | 764 | Broncos +159 |
| Halves | 975 | 730 | Broncos +245 |
| Hooker | 981 | 707 | Broncos +274 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Broncos |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Broncos predicted to win by 12 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-06-02 16:38 UTC (latest tip update)