NRL | Round 12

alphr.com.au

Sat 23 May7:35pm

MANMAN

GLDGLD

Sun 24 May4:05pm

NQLNQL

SOUSOU

MAN

Sea Eagles

GLD

Titans

4 PINES PARK, SYDNEY • SATURDAY 23 MAY, 7:35 PM

AI Win Probability

63%Sea EaglesFavourite

Sea Eagles

63%

Titans

37%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sea Eagles hold the advantage at 63% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 37%. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 296-point ELO rating advantage (1600 vs 1304). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 9.9 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sea Eagles to Win @1.26

Edge

-12.1%

Line / Spread

Titans +12.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 51.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Sea Eagles	R7W R8W R9L R10W R11W older → newer	33.0
Titans	R6W R7L R9L R10L R11L	21.6

Avg Conceded

12.8

Sea Eagles

26.0

Titans

Avg Margin

20.2

Sea Eagles

-4.4

Titans

Run Metres

1879

Sea Eagles

1750

Titans

Line Breaks

7.8

Sea Eagles

6.2

Titans

Referee Indicator

Favours Sea Eagles

Gerard Sutton

367 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)

Sea Eagles

23W – 23L

50%

Titans

8W – 15L

35%

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sea Eagles have won 23 of 46 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 8 from 23 (35%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

42.0 pts

Home Win %

56%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

11.8

Sin Bins / Gm

0.12

SB Away %

61%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.7

vs Away Teams6.1

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Sea Eagles

+0.4

Titans

-1.0

Sea Eagles get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Titans's -1.0. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.

H2H History (Last 5)Titans lead 3-2

Jun 2025MAN 8 - 28 GLD

Jul 2024MAN 38 - 8 GLD

Apr 2024MAN 34 - 30 GLD

May 2023MAN 10 - 26 GLD

Aug 2022MAN 24 - 44 GLD

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

MAN

1600Overall1304

GLD

ELO difference: +296 in favour of Sea Eagles

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1128Forwards799

MAN +329

1093Backs772

MAN +320

1120Halves818

MAN +301

1123Hooker803

MAN +320

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

MAN

Stat

GLD

4.0

Wins (Last 5)

1.0

33.0pts

Avg Score

21.6pts

12.8pts

Avg Conceded

26.0pts

20.2pts

Avg Margin

-4.4pts

1879.0m

Run Metres

1750.2m

7.8

Line Breaks

6.2

297.4

Tackles

349.8

11.8

Errors

13.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Eagles

Forward Pack12.0%

Eagles

Backline Quality10.0%

Eagles

Halves Control9.0%

Eagles

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Eagles

Referee Tendency7.0%

Eagles

Venue Advantage7.0%

Eagles

Model Confidence

63%

Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: +9.9

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

7 Plays

Jayden CampbellTitans

halfFair 2.362+ 11%

$3.35

+12.6% edge

Model

42%

Market

30%

Confidence

42%

Clayton FaulaloSea Eagles

backFair 2.092+ 14%

$1.99

-2.5% edge

Model

48%

Market

50%

Confidence

48%

Phillip SamiTitans

backFair 2.322+ 11%

$2.10

-4.6% edge

Model

43%

Market

48%

Confidence

43%

Reuben GarrickSea Eagles

backFair 2.062+ 14%

$1.88

-4.7% edge

Model

48%

Market

53%

Confidence

48%

AJ BrimsonTitans

backFair 4.082+ 3%

$3.10

-7.7% edge

Model

25%

Market

32%

Confidence

25%

Jason SaabSea Eagles

backFair 1.712+ 22%

$1.47

-9.4% edge

Model

59%

Market

68%

Confidence

59%

Jaylan De GrootTitans

backFair 7.922+ 1%

$3.40

-16.8% edge

Model

13%

Market

29%

Confidence

13%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Jayden CampbellTitans

halfFair 5.682+ 11%

$17.00

+11.7% edge

Model

18%

Market

Confidence

18%

Phillip SamiTitans

backFair 5.572+ 11%

$12.00

+9.6% edge

Model

18%

Market

Confidence

18%

Jason SaabSea Eagles

backFair 4.642+ 22%

$7.00

+7.3% edge

Model

22%

Market

14%

Confidence

22%

Clayton FaulaloSea Eagles

backFair 6.302+ 14%

$11.00

+6.8% edge

Model

16%

Market

Confidence

16%

Reuben GarrickSea Eagles

backFair 6.172+ 14%

$10.00

+6.2% edge

Model

16%

Market

10%

Confidence

16%