# Sea Eagles v Titans — NRL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 12 – 10 Titans

_Sea Eagles survive a scare against Titans._

Half time: 4 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 63% / Titans 37% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sat, 23 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Blake Wilson (18' 1st), Clayton Faulalo (46' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: Phillip Sami (66' Tipped ⚡), AJ Brimson (79' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 63% | Won |
| Titans | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 May 2026, 04:59 pm · Last updated: 25 May 2026, 10:53 am_

Sea Eagles 12–10 Titans in NRL Round 12 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sea Eagles beat Titans 12-10 at Brookvale Oval, and on the sheet that's a two-point squeaker. Look at the numbers that went into it and it should have been a lot more comfortable than that. Sea Eagles forwards rated 1128 against 799, the halves 1120 to 818, the hooker spot 1123 to 803. Every position group favoured the home side by more than 300 points. This wasn't a coin flip on paper, it was a mismatch that somehow finished in a one-score game.

The scoreboard tells a tidier story than the stat sheet does. Sea Eagles led 4-0 at half-time and never trailed, but the gap between how dominant they were and how close it finished is the real headline here. They ran for 1,636 metres to 1,548, only marginally ahead. Their post-contact metres were 600 to 585, barely a difference at all for a side rated so much stronger up front.

Blake Wilson got the Sea Eagles going in the 17th minute, finishing his own work to make it 4-0. Clayton Faulalo doubled the lead in the 46th, taking it to 8-0 and looking like the start of a runaway. Instead the Titans hit back through Phillip Sami in the 65th minute, then AJ Brimson crossed in the 78th, dragging the margin back to a nervy finish that matched the final scoreline.

Where Sea Eagles actually won this was with the ball in hand, not with it. They completed at 86% to the Titans' 68%, and coughed up just 10 errors to 18. That completion rate is the number that decided the game. Field position and possession, 53% to 47%, gave them more chances, but it was the ball security that let them use those chances instead of handing momentum straight back.

The Titans were the more dangerous side on the numbers that measure aggression. They out-offloaded Sea Eagles 14 to 8, broke more tackles (28 to 24) and made more line breaks per opportunity feel likely, even though Sea Eagles edged actual line breaks 3 to 2. Titans also tackled better in raw percentage terms, 90.7% effective to 87.5%, and missed fewer tackles, 24 to 28. On defence they were arguably sharper. It just didn't translate to points until the back half of the second half.

Kicking metres tell part of the territory story: Sea Eagles put boot to ball for 753 metres against 612 for the Titans, and that extra territory likely fed into the scoreboard even if it doesn't show up as a highlight-reel stat.

Form coming in made this look like a mismatch too. Sea Eagles had won four of their last five, averaging 33 points a game while conceding just 12.8. The Titans had won only one of five, leaking 26 points a game on average. Alphr's model had Sea Eagles at 63% to win and predicted a 9.9-point margin. The actual result, 12-10, undershot that by almost eight points, and the combined total of 22 landed 26 points under the model's forecast of 48.

Read the ledger closely and this was Sea Eagles doing enough, not doing plenty. They won the completion battle, won the error count comfortably, and got just enough out of the boot and the ball to survive a Titans side that hit harder in contact and offloaded more but couldn't find the extra polish to finish the job.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 4 | 8 | 12 |
| Titans | 0 | 10 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 68% |
| **1,636** | Run metres | 1,548 |
| **600** | Post-contact metres | 585 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| 24 | Tackle breaks | **28** |
| 8 | Offloads | **14** |
| 87.5% | Effective tackle % | **90.7%** |
| 28 | Missed tackles | **24** |
| **10** | Errors | 18 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| **753** | Kick metres | 612 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 63% probability. The predicted margin of 9.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. The game's 22 points came in 26 points lower than the predicted 48. The model went 7/16 on this match. Titans covered the 12.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The combined score of 22 points was 20 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 50% win rate under this referee. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 17' Try — Blake Wilson (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 46' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 65' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 78' Try — AJ Brimson (Titans) — 12-8 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.26 (edge -12.1%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 10 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Sea Eagles are the call at 63%, but Titans stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 296 ELO points clear, 1600 to 1304. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 9.9, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Sea Eagles, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sea Eagles have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Titans took the most recent meeting 38-32 in 2026 Round 20.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 4th against Titans 16th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Sea Eagles $1.26 and Titans $3.90, with the line at Sea Eagles -12.5 and the total at 51.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 15.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 6 · Titans 4 |
| Last meeting | Titans 38-32 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 4th · Titans 16th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Titans 0% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $1.26 · Titans $3.90 |
| Line | Sea Eagles -12.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 15.2 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Gerard Sutton** — 367 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 23W–23L | 50% |
| Titans | 8W–15L | 35% |

Avg total: 42.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sea Eagles have won 23 of 46 games (50%), significantly stronger than Titans's 8 from 23 (35%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Sea Eagles get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Titans's -0.6. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 33.0pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| 20.2pts | Avg Margin | -4.4pts |
| 1879.0m | Run Metres | 1750.2m |
| 7.8 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 297.4 | Tackles | 349.8 |
| 11.8 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W | 33.0 |
| Titans | R6 W · R7 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Titans lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Titans | 38 – 32 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R15 | Titans | 28 – 8 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R20 | Sea Eagles | 38 – 8 | Titans |
| 2024 | R7 | Titans | 30 – 34 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R9 | Sea Eagles | 10 – 26 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.2 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 11th there (1.9 conceded/game). Key man: Fogarty, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 13th-ranked right edge attack (0.9 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 11th there (1.3 conceded/game).

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.8/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.8/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.2/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.9/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.2/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 11th) | 0.9/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.9/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 3 | 6 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 170m/g | 186m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3/g | 2.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 83.7% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 19 | 15 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 1.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 760m/g | 733m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.2/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.4% | 78.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 6 | 6 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 574m/g | 491m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.1/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 90.5% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.72/g (lg 0.43) +67% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.17) +29% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18% · Wingers 1.3/g (lg 1.27) +2% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.22) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Faulalo | FB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/1g | 5/14g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 48% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3) | 7/9g | 23/43g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.47 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Josh Feledy | CE | 0 in 4g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1·0) | 12/10g | 42/63g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Blake Wilson | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 19% | — | 🏉 18' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 8/34g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 3/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 2/52g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Ethan Bullemor | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 6/42g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Jackson Shereb | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 10/39g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 18/101g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 2/25g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Simione Laiafi | RES | 0 in 4g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 2 | Jensen Taumoepeau | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaylan De Groot | CE | 0 in 5g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 13% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 5/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 25% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 2/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (1·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Zane Harrison | HB | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Klese Haas | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Luke Sommerton | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Adam Christensen | RES | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1600 · Titans 1304 · ELO difference: 296 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1128 | 799 | Sea Eagles +329 |
| Backs | 1093 | 772 | Sea Eagles +320 |
| Halves | 1120 | 818 | Sea Eagles +301 |
| Hooker | 1123 | 803 | Sea Eagles +320 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-25 00:53 UTC (latest tip update)