NRL | Round 12

Raiders hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Dolphins are far from out of this at 40%. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Raiders counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Dolphins carry a 92-point ELO rating advantage (1536 vs 1445). The margin model predicts Raiders by 2.6 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Raiders to Win @1.67

Edge

+3.0%

Line / Spread

Raiders -2.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Raiders 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 49.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Raiders	R6W R7W R8L R9W R10L older → newer	24.4
Dolphins	R7L R8L R9W R10W R11W	28.8

Avg Conceded

26.2

Raiders

15.0

Dolphins

Avg Margin

-1.8

Raiders

13.8

Dolphins

Run Metres

1742

Raiders

1866

Dolphins

Line Breaks

5.2

Raiders

6.4

Dolphins

Referee Indicator

Favours Dolphins

Todd Smith

105 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)

Raiders

7W – 8L

47%

Dolphins

7W – 3L

70%

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 7 of 10 games (70%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 7 from 15 (47%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Avg Total

46.1 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

10.7

Sin Bins / Gm

0.50

SB Away %

52%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.3

vs Away Teams5.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Raiders

-0.5

Dolphins

+0.6

Dolphins get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Raiders's -0.5.

H2H History (Last 5)Raiders lead 3-2

Sep 2025CAN 24 - 62 DOL

Apr 2025CAN 40 - 28 DOL

Jun 2024CAN 26 - 25 DOL

May 2023CAN 31 - 30 DOL

Mar 2023CAN 14 - 20 DOL

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1536 vs 1445), but the market favours Raiders (@1.67).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

CAN

1445Overall1536

DOL

ELO difference: -92 in favour of Dolphins

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

979Forwards1069

DOL +90

936Backs1000

DOL +64

980Halves1062

DOL +82

938Hooker1000

DOL +62

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CAN

Stat

DOL

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

24.4pts

Avg Score

28.8pts

26.2pts

Avg Conceded

15.0pts

-1.8pts

Avg Margin

13.8pts

1741.8m

Run Metres

1866.4m

5.2

Line Breaks

6.4

364.0

Tackles

353.0

9.0

Errors

11.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Dolphins

Forward Pack12.0%

Dolphins

Backline Quality10.0%

Dolphins

Halves Control9.0%

Dolphins

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Raiders

Venue Advantage7.0%

Raiders

Model Confidence

60%

Raiders predicted to win by 3 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +2.6

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Jack BostockDolphins

backFair 1.162+ 58%

$2.08

+37.9% edge

Model

86%

Market

48%

Confidence

86%

Jamayne IsaakoDolphins

backFair 1.302+ 43%

$1.81

+21.4% edge

Model

77%

Market

55%

Confidence

77%

Kaeo WeekesRaiders

backFair 1.582+ 26%

$1.85

+9.1% edge

Model

63%

Market

54%

Confidence

63%

Kulikefu FinefeuiakiDolphins

forwardFair 3.022+ 6%

$3.40

+3.7% edge

Model

33%

Market

29%

Confidence

33%

Sebastian KrisRaiders

backFair 3.142+ 6%

$2.50

-8.1% edge

Model

32%

Market

40%

Confidence

32%

Savelio TamaleRaiders

backFair 2.322+ 11%

$1.87

-10.3% edge

Model

43%

Market

53%

Confidence

43%

Xavier SavageRaiders

backFair 2.042+ 15%

$1.63

-12.3% edge

Model

49%

Market

61%

Confidence

49%

Trai FullerDolphins

backFair 11.222+ 0%

$2.45

-31.9% edge

Model

Market

41%

Confidence

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Jack BostockDolphins

backFair 2.912+ 58%

$10.00

+24.4% edge

Model

34%

Market

10%

Confidence

34%

Kaeo WeekesRaiders

backFair 3.592+ 26%

$9.50

+17.3% edge

Model

28%

Market

11%

Confidence

28%

Jamayne IsaakoDolphins

backFair 3.932+ 43%

$9.00

+14.3% edge

Model

25%

Market

11%

Confidence

25%

Xavier SavageRaiders

backFair 5.312+ 15%

$8.50

+7.1% edge

Model

19%

Market

12%

Confidence

19%

Savelio TamaleRaiders

backFair 6.342+ 11%

$10.00

+5.8% edge

Model

16%

Market

10%

Confidence

16%