# Raiders v Dolphins — NRL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 22 – 30 Dolphins

_Dolphins ride the wave past Raiders._

Half time: 16 – 22 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 60% / Dolphins 40% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Thu, 21 May, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Jed Stuart (2' 1st), Corey Horsburgh (15'), Savelio Tamale (39' Tipped ⚡), Zac Hosking (65') · Dolphins: Tevita Naufahu (9'), Morgan Knowles (21'), Jamayne Isaako (24' Tipped ⚡), Ray Stone (33'), Bradley Schneider (70')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 60% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 40% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.6 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 May 2026, 04:59 pm · Last updated: 21 May 2026, 09:45 pm_

Raiders 22–30 Dolphins in NRL Round 12 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes did the damage. Raiders led 10-6 after Corey Horsburgh crossed in the 14th, and for a spell at GIO Stadium it looked like the home side's night. Then the Dolphins scored three tries in the space of 12 minutes, Morgan Knowles at 20', Jamayne Isaako at 23', Ray Stone at 32', and a two-point ledger flipped into an eight-point buffer. Raiders never got back in front.

Final score: Dolphins 30, Raiders 22. The Dolphins led 22-16 at half-time and did enough after the break to see it out, despite Zac Hosking's try in the 65th cutting it to four. Bradley Schneider's four minutes later put it back out to six, and that was the ball game.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw in that first-half stretch. Dolphins finished with 7 line breaks to 3, and turned that into 1,827 running metres against the Raiders' 1,358. Post-contact metres told the same story, 583 to 464, the sort of gap that comes from repeatedly getting a forward pack past the advantage line. That tracks with the pre-match numbers: Dolphins forwards rated at 1069 against the Raiders' 979, and it showed up in the collisions all night.

Possession sat with the Dolphins too, 53 to 47, and while completion rates were close (79% to 77%), the Raiders were the ones giving away the cheap stuff. Five penalties conceded to two is a real discipline gap, and against a side that rated stronger across the backline (1000 to 936) and in the halves (1062 to 980), that's territory and field position handed over for nothing.

Jed Stuart opened the scoring inside the first minute and added a second try later, with Horsburgh, Savelio Tamale and Hosking rounding out the Raiders' four. It wasn't a bad night in attack for Canberra, four tries is nothing to sneeze at, but the Dolphins matched them and then some, with Naufahu, Knowles, Isaako, Stone and Schneider all crossing. Five scorers to four is a fair summary of how the afternoon went.

The one number that flatters the Raiders is kick metres, 749 to the Dolphins' 544. They controlled the boot well enough, they just couldn't turn territory into points at the rate their opponents did. Missed tackles were close (25 to 23) and offloads identical at five apiece, so this wasn't a defensive horror show. It was a case of the better side in the collisions making more of its ball.

Form lines pointed to something like this being on the cards, even if the final margin surprised. The Dolphins came in on a WWW run after opening LL, averaging 28.8 points scored and just 15 conceded across their last five, with an average margin of plus-13.8. The Raiders, by contrast, were leaking 26.2 a game with a minus-1.8 average margin. Alphr's model still had Canberra as 60% favourites and picked them to win by 2.6, on a combined total of 45.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 16 | 6 | 22 |
| Dolphins | 22 | 8 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| 1,358 | Run metres | **1,827** |
| 464 | Post-contact metres | **583** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 23 | Tackle breaks | **25** |
| 5 | Offloads | 5 |
| 90.8% | Effective tackle % | **92.0%** |
| 25 | Missed tackles | **23** |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **749** | Kick metres | 544 |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 60% prediction for Raiders, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 2.6 was reasonable against the actual 8-point result. The model went 2/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 52 points was 6 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Dolphins's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Dolphins have a 70% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — Jed Stuart (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 9' Try — Tevita Naufahu (Dolphins) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 14' Try — Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 20' Try — Morgan Knowles (Dolphins) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 32' Try — Ray Stone (Dolphins) — 12-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 38' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 16-22 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 65' Try — Zac Hosking (Raiders) — 20-24 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 69' Try — Bradley Schneider (Dolphins) — 22-28 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.67 (edge +3.0%) — model probability 59.9% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Raiders 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 3 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 60%, but Dolphins stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Dolphins sit 92 ELO points clear, 1536 to 1445, so the model is backing Raiders against the ratings gap.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Raiders, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Raiders by 2.6, with the two sides combining for about 45. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 3 wins apiece from the last 6.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Raiders 3, Dolphins 5.

On the ladder it's Raiders 12th against Dolphins 8th.

The market has Raiders favourites, Raiders $1.67 and Dolphins $2.20, with the line at Raiders -2.5 and the total at 49.5.

Raiders come in fresher, 10 days between games against 5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 16.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 1.1 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Raiders 3 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 30-22 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 12th · Dolphins 8th |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Dolphins 100% |
| Market | Raiders $1.67 · Dolphins $2.20 |
| Line | Raiders -2.5 · total 49.5 |
| Rest gap | Raiders 10d · Dolphins 5d |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 16.0 pens/g · 1.1 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Dolphins

**Todd Smith** — 105 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 7W–8L | 47% |
| Dolphins | 7W–3L | 70% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Dolphins have won 7 of 10 games (70%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 7 from 15 (47%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Dolphins get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Raiders's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 24.4pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 26.2pts | Avg Conceded | 15.0pts |
| -1.8pts | Avg Margin | 13.8pts |
| 1741.8m | Run Metres | 1866.4m |
| 5.2 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 364.0 | Tackles | 353.0 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 24.4 |
| Dolphins | R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 W · R11 W | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Raiders lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R27 | Dolphins | 62 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R8 | Raiders | 40 – 28 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R13 | Dolphins | 25 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R9 | Raiders | 31 – 30 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R2 | Dolphins | 20 – 14 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1.3 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 6th there (1.1 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 8th there (1.2 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.8/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 12th) | 1.2/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.3/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.6/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.3/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 8th) | 2/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 12 | 2 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 189m/g | 210m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.9% | 87% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 26 | 37 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 794m/g | 866m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.7/g | 20.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77% | 83.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 4 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 504m/g | 510m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.9/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.73) +34% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 7 in 10g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 2/3g | 14/29g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 28% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 7/12g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 39' |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 19/53g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 3 in 5g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 19/32g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Daine Laurie | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/5g | 15% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 5/50g | 10% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 9 | Tom Starling | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 6/62g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 10/99g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Ata Mariota | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/37g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 7/20g | 14% | — | 🏉 65' |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/14g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Jordan Uta | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/28g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Jed Stuart | CE | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/13g | 11% | — | 🏉 2' |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Trai Fuller | FB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 9% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·3·0) | 2/7g | 1/2g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.81 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 24' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 4 in 3g | 11/10g (0·1·0·1·1·4·0·2·1·1) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 34% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Tevita Naufahu | WG | 0 in 4g | 6/10g (0·2·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 6 | Bradley Schneider | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/8g | 6% | — | 🏉 70' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/17g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/9g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.40 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 21' |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Oryn Keeley | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1536 vs 1445), but the market favours Raiders (@1.67). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1445 · Dolphins 1536 · ELO difference: 92 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 979 | 1069 | Dolphins +90 |
| Backs | 936 | 1000 | Dolphins +64 |
| Halves | 980 | 1062 | Dolphins +82 |
| Hooker | 938 | 1000 | Dolphins +62 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Raiders predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-21 11:45 UTC (latest tip update)