NRL | Round 12

Warriors hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Dragons are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Warriors ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 128-point ELO rating advantage (1628 vs 1500). Recent form favours Warriors with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Warriors by 11.3 points with a combined total of 53.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warriors to Win @1.23

Edge

-16.4%

Line / Spread

Dragons +13.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warriors 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Over 51.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Dragons	R6L R7L R8L R10L R11L older → newer	12.4
Warriors	R6W R7W R8W R9W R11W	32.8

Avg Conceded

38.4

Dragons

15.6

Warriors

Avg Margin

-26.0

Dragons

17.2

Warriors

Run Metres

1493

Dragons

1692

Warriors

Line Breaks

3.0

Dragons

7.2

Warriors

Referee Indicator

Favours Warriors

Adam Gee

295 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)

Dragons

10W – 24L

29%

Warriors

15W – 17L

47%

When Adam Gee officiates, Warriors have won 15 of 32 games (47%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 10 from 34 (29%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

42.9 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

13.7

Sin Bins / Gm

0.24

SB Away %

69%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.3

vs Away Teams7.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Dragons

+1.0

Warriors

+0.2

Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Dragons get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Warriors's +0.2. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.

H2H History (Last 5)Warriors lead 4-1

Aug 2025SGI 10 - 14 NZL

May 2025SGI 14 - 15 NZL

Apr 2024SGI 30 - 12 NZL

Sep 2023SGI 6 - 18 NZL

Jul 2023SGI 18 - 48 NZL

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SGI

1500Overall1628

NZL

ELO difference: -128 in favour of Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

1008Forwards1149

NZL +141

1029Backs1163

NZL +133

979Halves1093

NZL +114

960Hooker1145

NZL +184

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SGI

Stat

NZL

0.0

Wins (Last 5)

5.0

12.4pts

Avg Score

32.8pts

38.4pts

Avg Conceded

15.6pts

-26.0pts

Avg Margin

17.2pts

1492.8m

Run Metres

1692.0m

3.0

Line Breaks

7.2

382.6

Tackles

319.8

11.6

Errors

9.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Warriors

Forward Pack12.0%

Warriors

Backline Quality10.0%

Warriors

Halves Control9.0%

Warriors

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Warriors

Referee Tendency7.0%

Dragons

Venue Advantage7.0%

Dragons

Model Confidence

61%

Warriors predicted to win by 11 points

Predicted total: 53 · Line: -11.3

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Alofiana Khan-PereiraWarriors

backFair 1.162+ 59%

$1.52

+20.4% edge

Model

86%

Market

66%

Confidence

86%

Dallin Watene-ZelezniakWarriors

backFair 1.162+ 59%

$1.48

+18.9% edge

Model

86%

Market

68%

Confidence

86%

Ali LeiatauaWarriors

backFair 1.802+ 20%

$2.35

+13.1% edge

Model

56%

Market

43%

Confidence

56%

Setu TuDragons

backFair 2.332+ 11%

$2.45

+2.2% edge

Model

43%

Market

41%

Confidence

43%

Leka HalasimaWarriors

forwardFair 2.122+ 13%

$2.18

+1.3% edge

Model

47%

Market

46%

Confidence

47%

Taine TuaupikiWarriors

backFair 3.832+ 4%

$2.40

-15.6% edge

Model

26%

Market

42%

Confidence

26%

Christian TuipulotuDragons

backFair 3.712+ 4%

$2.12

-20.2% edge

Model

27%

Market

47%

Confidence

27%

Valentine HolmesDragons

backFair 8.602+ 1%

$3.00

-21.7% edge

Model

12%

Market

33%

Confidence

12%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Setu TuDragons

backFair 3.962+ 11%

$13.00

+17.6% edge

Model

25%

Market

Confidence

25%

Alofiana Khan-PereiraWarriors

backFair 4.352+ 59%

$7.50

+9.6% edge

Model

23%

Market

13%

Confidence

23%

Dallin Watene-ZelezniakWarriors

backFair 4.302+ 59%

$7.00

+8.9% edge

Model

23%

Market

14%

Confidence

23%

Christian TuipulotuDragons

backFair 7.082+ 4%

$12.00

+5.8% edge

Model

14%

Market

Confidence

14%

Ali LeiatauaWarriors

backFair 10.582+ 20%

$12.00

+1.1% edge

Model

Market

Confidence