# Dragons v Warriors — NRL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 12 – 30 Warriors

_Warriors conquer Dragons._

Half time: 6 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 39% / Warriors 61% · St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah · Sat, 23 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Setu Tu (6' 1st Tipped 🎯), Christian Tuipulotu (65' Tipped ⚡) · Warriors: Alofiana Khan-Pereira (12' Tipped ⚡), Te Maire Martin (16'), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (34' Tipped ⚡), Te Maire Martin (47'), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (62' Tipped ⚡), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (72' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 61% | Won |
| Dragons | 39% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 11.3 predicted → 18 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs New Zealand Warriors Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 May 2026, 04:59 pm · Last updated: 25 May 2026, 11:00 am_

Dragons 12–30 Warriors in NRL Round 12 at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium, Kogarah. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Dragons actually held the ball more than anyone watching cold might expect, 53% of possession, and out-offloaded the Warriors 12 to 5 with 30 tackle breaks to 25. None of it mattered much in the only column that counts.

St George Illawarra started like a side that hadn't lost five straight. Setu Tu crossed inside five minutes for a 4-0 lead, and for a moment the form line looked like it might be worth challenging. It wasn't. The Warriors hit back through Alofiana Khan-Pereira in the 11th, Te Maire Martin in the 16th and Dallin Watene-Zelezniak in the 33rd to lead 14-6 at the break, and from there the Dragons' night was mostly about limiting the damage rather than chasing the lead.

The line break count tells you most of what you need to know: Warriors 6, Dragons 2. St George Illawarra could complete sets, hold the ball, even shade the effective tackle percentage 91.8 to 89.2, but none of that stops a team that keeps finding space out wide. Khan-Pereira and Martin scored twice apiece, Watene-Zelezniak got his second in the 71st minute, and every one of those six tries came off the back of a Warriors side that simply broke the line more often when it counted.

That gap was written into the game before kick-off. The Warriors came in rated stronger in every positional group, forwards 1149 to 1008, backs 1163 to 1029, halves 1093 to 979, hooker 1145 to 960. Form lines matched the rating: five straight wins for the Warriors at an average margin of plus-17.2, against five straight losses for the Dragons at minus-26. A 12-point deficit at the whistle and 30-12 final is, if anything, closer than that form gap suggested it might be.

Christian Tuipulotu's try in the 64th minute at least meant the Dragons had something to show from the second half, cutting the margin back to 14 briefly before Watene-Zelezniak restored the buffer. Errors were level at 15 apiece, penalties even at four each, so this wasn't a case of the Dragons beating themselves. They were beaten by a side finishing its chances and defending well enough to make sure the Dragons' 91.8% effective tackle rate never turned into a genuine comeback.

Run metres were close, 1,790 to 1,689 in the Warriors' favour, post-contact metres nearly identical. Kick metres actually favoured the Dragons, 537 to 495. Strip away the line breaks and the tries and this reads like an even contest. Include them and it's an 18-point loss that never looked in serious doubt after half-time.

Alphr's model had the Warriors in at 61% and predicted an 11.3-point win. The actual margin was 18, wider than tipped but the right side of the ledger. Given the ratings gap and the form both sides brought into Jubilee Stadium, that's about as clean a read as the model could have hoped for.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Warriors | 14 | 16 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| 68% | Completion rate | **70%** |
| 1,689 | Run metres | **1,790** |
| 556 | Post-contact metres | **566** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **30** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **12** | Offloads | 5 |
| **91.8%** | Effective tackle % | 89.2% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 30 |
| 15 | Errors | 15 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **537** | Kick metres | 495 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 61% probability. The predicted margin of 11.3 was reasonable against the actual 18-point result. Warriors led 6–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 18. The model went 6/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Warriors's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Warriors have a 47% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Warriors prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 11' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Te Maire Martin (Warriors) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 33' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 46' Try — Te Maire Martin (Warriors) — 6-18 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 62' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 6-24 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 64' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 10-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 71' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 12-28 · win-prob swing -6 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.23 (edge -16.4%) — model probability 61.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +13.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 11 · Predicted total: 53

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 61%, but Dragons stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 128 ELO points clear, 1628 to 1500. Form leans Warriors' way: 5 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 11.3, with the two sides combining for about 53. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 20-12 in 2026 Round 20.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Warriors 2nd.

The market has Warriors favourites, Dragons $4.25 and Warriors $1.23, with the line at Dragons +13.5 and the total at 51.5.

Dragons come in fresher, 120 days between games against 5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 15.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Warriors 6 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 20-12 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Warriors 2nd |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Warriors 100% |
| Market | Dragons $4.25 · Warriors $1.23 |
| Line | Dragons +13.5 · total 51.5 |
| Rest gap | Dragons 120d · Warriors 5d |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 15.2 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Adam Gee** — 295 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 10W–24L | 29% |
| Warriors | 15W–17L | 47% |

Avg total: 42.9 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Warriors have won 15 of 32 games (47%), significantly stronger than Dragons's 10 from 34 (29%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Dragons get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Warriors's +0.3. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 38.4pts | Avg Conceded | 15.6pts |
| -26.0pts | Avg Margin | 17.2pts |
| 1492.8m | Run Metres | 1692.0m |
| 3.0 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 382.6 | Tackles | 319.8 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 9.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R10 L · R11 L | 12.4 |
| Warriors | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R11 W | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Warriors | 20 – 12 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R24 | Warriors | 14 – 10 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R10 | Dragons | 14 – 15 | Warriors |
| 2024 | R7 | Dragons | 30 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R26 | Warriors | 18 – 6 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 14th-ranked left edge attack (0.9 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 1st there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Stewart, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.1 conceded/game). Key man: Watene-Zelezniak, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.9/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2.2/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.1/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.6/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.7/g (def 8th) | 2.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.6/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.1/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.7/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 7 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 145m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.8% | 85.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 41 | 29 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 649m/g | 630m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.3/g | 14.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 3.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.6% | 77.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Warriors |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 9 | 16 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 529m/g | 602m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 9.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 88.8% |

**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.85/g (lg 0.73) +16% · Fullbacks 0.49/g (lg 0.43) +14% · Wingers 1.14/g (lg 1.27) -10%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.22) +50% · 2nd Rows 0.64/g (lg 0.46) +39% · Fullbacks 0.59/g (lg 0.43) +37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at St George Venues Jubilee Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/11g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/8g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 43% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 25% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 6' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 0/1g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 12% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 27% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/15g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 29% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Emre Guler | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Blake Lawrie | RES | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 10% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 12 in 10g | 12/10g (0·2·0·0·3·2·1·1·1·2) | 7/14g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.48 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 72' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 6 in 6g | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 12' 62' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 1 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 14% | — | 🏉 16' 47' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Eddie Ieremia-Toeava | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1500 · Warriors 1628 · ELO difference: 128 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Warriors | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1008 | 1149 | Warriors +141 |
| Backs | 1029 | 1163 | Warriors +133 |
| Halves | 979 | 1093 | Warriors +114 |
| Hooker | 960 | 1145 | Warriors +184 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Warriors predicted to win by 11 points · Predicted total: 53 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-25 01:00 UTC (latest tip update)