# Cowboys v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Cowboys 30 – 18 Rabbitohs

_Cowboys wrangle Rabbitohs._

Half time: 18 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Cowboys 58% / Rabbitohs 42% · Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville · Sun, 24 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Cowboys: Zac Laybutt (4' 1st), Reed Mahoney (26'), Tom Chester (34' Tipped ⚡), Liam Sutton (61'), Heilum Luki (68' Tipped ⚡) · Rabbitohs: Talanoa Penitani (15'), Talanoa Penitani (55'), Alex Johnston (76' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 58% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 42% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.4 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**North Queensland Cowboys vs South Sydney Rabbitohs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 May 2026, 04:59 pm · Last updated: 25 May 2026, 10:30 am_

Cowboys 30–18 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 12 at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, Townsville. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two ways to play a footy match were on show at Queensland Country Bank Stadium, and the Cowboys' version won 30-18.

The Rabbitohs did the hard yards. They ran for 1,855 metres to the Cowboys' 1,828, ground out 597 post-contact metres to the home side's 511, and broke the line seven times to six. On paper that's the more damaging side. But footy isn't just about making metres, it's about what you do with the ball before that, and the Cowboys held it better and looked after it far more carefully. Nine errors to Souths' 15 and a completion rate of 75% against 71% meant the home side kept getting more cracks with it, and made those cracks count.

Zac Laybutt got things moving in the 4th minute, and Souths hit straight back through Talanoa Penitani in the 14th to level it at 4-4. From there the Cowboys took over. Reed Mahoney crossed in the 25th, Tom Chester added another in the 34th, and by half-time it was 18-6. That's three tries in a 30-minute stretch while Souths managed only the one reply, and it set up everything that followed.

Souths never stopped trying to play through it. Penitani grabbed his second in the 55th to bring it to 18-10, but the Cowboys had answers ready. Liam Sutton scored in the 60th, Heilum Luki followed in the 67th, and suddenly it was 28-12 with the game put well out of reach. Alex Johnston's try in the 76th minute made the final margin look tighter than the contest actually was.

The kicking game told its own story. Cowboys booted for 711 metres to Souths' 558, a gap of 153 metres that let them dictate where the contest was played and forced the Rabbitohs to work their way out of trouble more often than they'd have liked. Add in an effective tackle rate of 87.1% against 84.6%, plus 14 offloads to nine, and the picture is of a team that controlled the parts of the game that don't show up as flashy as a line break but decide matches anyway.

Discipline flipped the other way. Souths conceded just two penalties to the Cowboys' six, the one clear area where the raw-metres side also won the composure battle. It wasn't enough to offset the errors column.

Going in, the numbers had this as a genuine coin toss, Cowboys rated 1509 to the Rabbitohs' 1497, with the model giving the home side a 58% chance and a wafer-thin projected margin of 1.4 points. The halves rating gap, 1036 to 968 in the Cowboys' favour, was arguably the biggest mismatch on the sheet, and it showed up in how cleanly the home side built pressure through the middle of the game. The final gap of 12 points was well beyond that predicted 1.4, but the model's read on the total was close, tipping 46 against an actual 48.

Souths arrived on the back of an 11.6-point average winning margin across their last five, with Penitani among the form players. His double kept them in touch. It just wasn't enough against a Cowboys side that looked after the footy when it mattered most.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 18 | 12 | 30 |
| Rabbitohs | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Cowboys | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **75%** | Completion rate | 71% |
| 1,828 | Run metres | **1,855** |
| 511 | Post-contact metres | **597** |
| 6 | Line breaks | **7** |
| **39** | Tackle breaks | 36 |
| **14** | Offloads | 9 |
| **87.1%** | Effective tackle % | 84.6% |
| **36** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| **9** | Errors | 15 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| **711** | Kick metres | 558 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Cowboys to win at 58% probability. The predicted margin of 1.4 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 48, within 2 points. The model went 5/16 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 53.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 5 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Zac Laybutt (Cowboys) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 14' Try — Talanoa Penitani (Rabbitohs) — 4-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 25' Try — Reed Mahoney (Cowboys) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 34' Try — Tom Chester (Cowboys) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 55' Try — Talanoa Penitani (Rabbitohs) — 18-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 60' Try — Liam Sutton (Cowboys) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 67' Try — Heilum Luki (Cowboys) — 28-12 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 76' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 30-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.70 (edge +2.5%) — model probability 58.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs +2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 1 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cowboys are the call at 58%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 42%.

Cowboys own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Cowboys by 1.4, with the two sides combining for about 46. Lean Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Rabbitohs have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Cowboys took the most recent meeting 30-18 in 2026 Round 12.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Cowboys 3, Rabbitohs 3.

On the ladder it's Cowboys 7th against Rabbitohs 5th.

The market has Cowboys favourites, Cowboys $1.70 and Rabbitohs $2.15, with the line at Cowboys -2.5 and the total at 53.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 17.5 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Cowboys 4 · Rabbitohs 6 |
| Last meeting | Cowboys 30-18 |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys at home | 7-5 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Cowboys 7th · Rabbitohs 5th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Cowboys $1.70 · Rabbitohs $2.15 |
| Line | Cowboys -2.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 17.5 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 318 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 14W–18L | 44% |
| Rabbitohs | 18W–24L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Cowboys 14W–18L (44%) and Rabbitohs 18W–24L (43%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Cowboys | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.6pts | Avg Score | 32.4pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -0.2pts | Avg Margin | 11.6pts |
| 1729.0m | Run Metres | 1785.8m |
| 6.4 | Line Breaks | 7.2 |
| 352.6 | Tackles | 298.0 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 L · R11 W | 25.6 |
| Rabbitohs | R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W · R11 L | 32.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R6 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 24 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 28 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R17 | Rabbitohs | 6 – 31 | Cowboys |
| 2022 | R24 | Rabbitohs | 20 – 10 | Cowboys |
| 2021 | R17 | Rabbitohs | 46 – 18 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Cowboys' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.55 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 13th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Luki, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.3 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 10th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Duncan, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Cowboys | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.55/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.36/g (def 10th) | 1.8/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.73/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.73/g (def 8th) | 1.4/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.36/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.27/g (def 10th) | 2.3/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.9/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Cowboys | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 11 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 223m/g | 146m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.7/g | 2.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89% | 85% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Cowboys | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 27 | 38 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 805m/g | 706m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.4/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4/g | 4.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.8% | 77% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Cowboys | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 7 | 10 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 507m/g | 596m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.6/g | 8.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.47/g (lg 0.27) +74% · Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21%
**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.3/g (lg 0.17) +76% · Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Queensland Country Bank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 7 in 11g | 7/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·1·2·0·1) | 1/7g | 24/73g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/10g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 11% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 6 in 11g | 6/10g (1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/1g | 9/23g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 3/12g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 24% ✓ Scored | 🏉 34' |
| 5 | Zac Laybutt | WG | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/17g | 20% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 6 | Liam Sutton | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 61' |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | 5 in 11g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/3g | 12/33g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Mikaele | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/14g | 2/7g | 16% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 10 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 5 in 11g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 11/34g | 30% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | 🏉 68' |
| 12 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/28g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Jason Taumalolo | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 2/56g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Viliami Vailea | RES | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/20g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Griffin Neame | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/52g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 8/56g | 8% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | RES | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 14 in 9g | 14/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·1·2·2·3) | 10/16g | 2/2g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 30% ✗ Not first | 🏉 76' |
| 3 | Latrell Siegwalt | CE | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 4 | Tallis Duncan | CE | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Talanoa Penitani | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 15' 55' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 4/12g | 1/2g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 3g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 3 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 9/15g | 3/5g | 22% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Adam Elliott | LK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 2/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/3g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 17 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Cowboys 1509 · Rabbitohs 1497 · ELO difference: 12 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Cowboys | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 986 | 1015 | Rabbitohs +29 |
| Backs | 1009 | 976 | Cowboys +33 |
| Halves | 1036 | 968 | Cowboys +67 |
| Hooker | 972 | 1009 | Rabbitohs +37 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Cowboys |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-25 00:30 UTC (latest tip update)