NRL | Round 12

alphr.com.au

Sun 24 May4:05pm

NQLNQL

SOUSOU

NQL

Cowboys

SOU

Rabbitohs

QUEENSLAND COUNTRY BANK STADIUM, TOWNSVILLE • SUNDAY 24 MAY, 4:05 PM

AI Win Probability

58%CowboysFavourite

Cowboys

58%

Rabbitohs

42%

✨

AI Match Overview

Cowboys hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 1.4 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Cowboys to Win @1.70

Edge

+2.5%

Line / Spread

Rabbitohs +2.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Cowboys 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 53.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Cowboys	R7L R8W R9W R10L R11W older → newer	25.6
Rabbitohs	R7W R8W R9L R10W R11L	32.4

Avg Conceded

25.8

Cowboys

20.8

Rabbitohs

Avg Margin

-0.2

Cowboys

11.6

Rabbitohs

Run Metres

1729

Cowboys

1786

Rabbitohs

Line Breaks

6.4

Cowboys

7.2

Rabbitohs

Referee Indicator

Balanced

Grant Atkins

318 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)

Cowboys

14W – 18L

44%

Rabbitohs

18W – 24L

43%

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Cowboys 14W–18L (44%) and Rabbitohs 18W–24L (43%).

Avg Total

43.2 pts

Home Win %

54%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

14.4

Sin Bins / Gm

0.29

SB Away %

56%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.8

vs Away Teams7.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Cowboys

+0.7

Rabbitohs

+1.1

Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Cowboys's +0.7.

H2H History (Last 5)Cowboys lead 3-2

Apr 2025NQL 24 - 16 SOU

May 2024NQL 28 - 22 SOU

Jul 2023NQL 31 - 6 SOU

Aug 2022NQL 10 - 20 SOU

Jul 2021NQL 18 - 46 SOU

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NQL

1509Overall1497

SOU

ELO difference: +12 in favour of Cowboys

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

986Forwards1015

SOU +29

1009Backs976

NQL +33

1036Halves968

NQL +67

972Hooker1009

SOU +37

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NQL

Stat

SOU

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

25.6pts

Avg Score

32.4pts

25.8pts

Avg Conceded

20.8pts

-0.2pts

Avg Margin

11.6pts

1729.0m

Run Metres

1785.8m

6.4

Line Breaks

7.2

352.6

Tackles

298.0

12.4

Errors

9.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Cowboys

Forward Pack12.0%

Cowboys

Backline Quality10.0%

Cowboys

Halves Control9.0%

Cowboys

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Cowboys

Venue Advantage7.0%

Cowboys

Model Confidence

58%

Cowboys predicted to win by 1 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +1.4

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

7 Plays

Tallis DuncanRabbitohs

backFair 1.742+ 21%

$2.60

+19.1% edge

Model

58%

Market

38%

Confidence

58%

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 1.162+ 59%

$1.46

+18.0% edge

Model

86%

Market

68%

Confidence

86%

Scott DrinkwaterCowboys

backFair 1.822+ 19%

$1.78

-1.1% edge

Model

55%

Market

56%

Confidence

55%

Jaxon PurdueCowboys

backFair 2.842+ 7%

$2.03

-14.0% edge

Model

35%

Market

49%

Confidence

35%

Jye GrayRabbitohs

backFair 3.572+ 4%

$2.35

-14.5% edge

Model

28%

Market

43%

Confidence

28%

Tom ChesterCowboys

backFair 4.092+ 3%

$2.45

-16.4% edge

Model

24%

Market

41%

Confidence

24%

Robert DerbyCowboys

backFair 8.752+ 1%

$1.75

-45.7% edge

Model

11%

Market

57%

Confidence

11%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Alex JohnstonRabbitohs

backFair 3.302+ 59%

$7.00

+16.0% edge

Model

30%

Market

14%

Confidence

30%

Scott DrinkwaterCowboys

backFair 4.572+ 19%

$9.50

+11.4% edge

Model

22%

Market

11%

Confidence

22%

Heilum LukiCowboys

forwardFair 6.532+ 11%

$13.00

+7.6% edge

Model

15%

Market

Confidence

15%

Euan AitkenRabbitohs

forwardFair 7.912+ 20%

$15.00

+6.0% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%

Tallis DuncanRabbitohs

backFair 7.722+ 21%

$14.00

+5.8% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%