NRL | Round 12

Bulldogs hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Storm are far from out of this at 46%. Storm are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Bulldogs counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Storm carry a 135-point ELO rating advantage (1476 vs 1340). Recent form favours Storm with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 2.3 points with a combined total of 44.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Bulldogs to Win @1.75

Edge

-0.9%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs -1.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 47.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Bulldogs	R7L R8L R9L R10L R11L older → newer	14.4
Storm	R7L R8L R9L R10W R11W	23.2

Avg Conceded

36.0

Bulldogs

25.2

Storm

Avg Margin

-21.6

Bulldogs

-2.0

Storm

Run Metres

1567

Bulldogs

1634

Storm

Line Breaks

3.4

Bulldogs

4.8

Storm

Referee Indicator

Favours Storm

Wyatt Raymond

46 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)

Bulldogs

4W – 3L

57%

Storm

3W – 1L

75%

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 4 from 7 (57%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Storm).

Avg Total

49.9 pts

Home Win %

61%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

9.7

Sin Bins / Gm

0.43

SB Away %

50%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams4.9

vs Away Teams4.9

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Bulldogs

-1.9

Storm

-1.0

Storm get a +-1.0 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -1.9.

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 4-1

Sep 2025CBY 18 - 26 MEL

Sep 2025CBY 14 - 20 MEL

Apr 2024CBY 14 - 16 MEL

Mar 2023CBY 26 - 12 MEL

Mar 2022CBY 0 - 44 MEL

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

⚡

ELO–Market Disagreement

Storm hold the ELO advantage (1476 vs 1340), but the market favours Bulldogs (@1.75).

The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

📊Team ELO Ratings

CBY

1340Overall1476

MEL

ELO difference: -135 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

824Forwards957

MEL +133

867Backs1007

MEL +140

834Halves960

MEL +126

843Hooker1013

MEL +170

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CBY

Stat

MEL

0.0

Wins (Last 5)

2.0

14.4pts

Avg Score

23.2pts

36.0pts

Avg Conceded

25.2pts

-21.6pts

Avg Margin

-2.0pts

1566.8m

Run Metres

1633.8m

3.4

Line Breaks

4.8

357.8

Tackles

354.6

12.2

Errors

13.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Storm

Forward Pack12.0%

Storm

Backline Quality10.0%

Storm

Halves Control9.0%

Storm

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Storm

Referee Tendency7.0%

Bulldogs

Venue Advantage7.0%

Bulldogs

Model Confidence

54%

Bulldogs predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 44 · Line: +2.3

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Lachlan GalvinBulldogs

halfFair 1.702+ 22%

$2.60

+20.5% edge

Model

59%

Market

38%

Confidence

59%

Will WarbrickStorm

backFair 1.562+ 27%

$1.92

+12.1% edge

Model

64%

Market

52%

Confidence

64%

Jacob KirazBulldogs

backFair 1.492+ 31%

$1.79

+11.3% edge

Model

67%

Market

56%

Confidence

67%

Bronson XerriBulldogs

backFair 2.132+ 13%

$2.65

+9.3% edge

Model

47%

Market

38%

Confidence

47%

Nick MeaneyStorm

backFair 2.612+ 8%

$3.15

+6.5% edge

Model

38%

Market

32%

Confidence

38%

Jacob PrestonBulldogs

forwardFair 2.302+ 11%

$2.50

+3.5% edge

Model

44%

Market

40%

Confidence

44%

Moses LeoStorm

backFair 2.322+ 11%

$2.18

-2.7% edge

Model

43%

Market

46%

Confidence

43%

Jahrome HughesStorm

halfFair 3.462+ 5%

$3.15

-2.9% edge

Model

29%

Market

32%

Confidence

29%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Jacob KirazBulldogs

backFair 4.542+ 31%

$9.00

+10.9% edge

Model

22%

Market

11%

Confidence

22%

Lachlan GalvinBulldogs

halfFair 5.692+ 22%

$13.00

+9.9% edge

Model

18%

Market

Confidence

18%

Will WarbrickStorm

backFair 5.392+ 27%

$10.00

+8.5% edge

Model

19%

Market

10%

Confidence

19%

Bronson XerriBulldogs

backFair 7.972+ 13%

$13.00

+4.9% edge

Model

13%

Market

Confidence

13%

Jacob PrestonBulldogs

forwardFair 8.852+ 11%

$11.00

+2.2% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%