# Bulldogs v Storm — NRL Round 12 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 30 – 20 Storm

_Bulldogs hit back to hound Storm from 12 down._

Half time: 6 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 54% / Storm 46% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 22 May, 08:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Enari Tuala (19'), Sitili Tupouniua (42'), Jethro Rinakama (55'), Jethro Rinakama (73'), Jacob Kiraz (77' Tipped ⚡) · Storm: Moses Leo (3' 1st Tipped ⚡), Moses Leo (13' 1st Tipped ⚡), Josh King (24')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 54% | Won |
| Storm | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Melbourne Storm Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 12 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 20 May 2026, 04:59 pm · Last updated: 22 May 2026, 10:00 pm_

Bulldogs 30–20 Storm in NRL Round 12 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bulldogs beat Storm 30-20 at Accor Stadium. Straightforward enough on paper, except the Bulldogs were down 18-6 at the break and had to find 24 points from somewhere. They found them.

Storm did everything right early. Moses Leo crossed twice inside the first quarter, at 3 minutes and again at 12, and Josh King added a third in the 23rd to push it out to 18-6. At that point this looked like exactly what the form lines suggested it would be: Storm carrying two wins from their last five against the Bulldogs' none, and a forward pack, halves and hooker all rated well clear on paper.

Then the Bulldogs simply took over. Sitili Tupouniua got one back just before half-time to make it 10-18, and from there it was one-way traffic. Jethro Rinakama scored twice, in the 55th and 72nd minutes, and Jacob Kiraz put the cap on it in the 77th. Twenty-four unanswered points across the second half, while Storm's own scoreboard stayed frozen from the 23rd minute on.

The stat sheet tells you exactly how that happened. Bulldogs ran 2,088 metres to Storm's 1,530, and 647 of theirs came after contact, a sign forwards rated well behind Storm's on paper (824 to 957) were still finding a way through bodies. They broke the line eight times to three, busted 52 tackles to 36, and threw the ball around with 17 offloads to Storm's three. That's not a team hanging on, that's a team that turned the contest into an arm-wrestle and won it.

Storm's defence was the story of the collapse. They missed 52 tackles to the Bulldogs' 36, and an effective tackle rate of 81.5% against 89.7% tells you where the second-half points came from. It's a rough look for a side whose hooker and back rows were rated the stronger units going in. Their best work came off the boot, 784 kicking metres to 664, and they were actually cleaner with discipline, conceding just one penalty to the Bulldogs' four. None of it mattered once the Bulldogs started running through arm tackles.

Completion rate mattered too. Bulldogs held the ball better, 81% to 71%, with nine errors against Storm's eleven, and had 56% of possession to work with. Add the line breaks and offloads and you've got a side that didn't just want it more in the second half, they were structurally better at holding and using the football.

Alphr's model had Bulldogs by 2.3 points off ratings of 1340 to Storm's 1476, giving them a 54% win chance. Final margin was 10, wider than tipped but the right side of the ledger, and it had them covering the 1.5-point line with the margin landing in the correct band. Given the form Storm brought in, two wins on the trot and an average margin of minus-2, this was the kind of scoreline that looked improbable at the 23-minute mark. Form lines are a start, not a guarantee.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 6 | 24 | 30 |
| Storm | 18 | 2 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 71% |
| **2,088** | Run metres | 1,530 |
| **647** | Post-contact metres | 499 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **52** | Tackle breaks | 36 |
| **17** | Offloads | 3 |
| **89.7%** | Effective tackle % | 81.5% |
| **36** | Missed tackles | 52 |
| **9** | Errors | 11 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **1** |
| 664 | Kick metres | **784** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Bulldogs trailed 6–18 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 30–20. The model went 5/17 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 1.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The 50-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Bulldogs bucked the trend, Storm historically win 75% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Bulldogs's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 12' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 18' Try — Enari Tuala (Bulldogs) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 23' Try — Josh King (Storm) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 42' Try — Sitili Tupouniua (Bulldogs) — 10-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 55' Try — Jethro Rinakama (Bulldogs) — 16-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 72' Try — Jethro Rinakama (Bulldogs) — 24-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 77' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 28-20 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.75 (edge -0.9%) — model probability 53.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 2 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 54%, but Storm stay live at 46%. The ratings say otherwise: Storm sit 135 ELO points clear, 1476 to 1340, so the model is backing Bulldogs against the ratings gap. Form leans Storm's way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Bulldogs.

On paper Storm shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Bulldogs, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Bulldogs by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 36-22 in 2026 Round 22.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Bulldogs 14th against Storm 13th.

The market has Bulldogs favourites, Bulldogs $1.75 and Storm $2.10, with the line at Bulldogs -1.5 and the total at 47.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 17.7 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 3 · Storm 7 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 36-22 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 7-5 this season |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Bulldogs 14th · Storm 13th |
| Finals odds | Bulldogs 0% · Storm 0% |
| Market | Bulldogs $1.75 · Storm $2.10 |
| Line | Bulldogs -1.5 · total 47.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 17.7 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Wyatt Raymond** — 46 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 4W–3L | 57% |
| Storm | 3W–1L | 75% |

Avg total: 49.9 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Storm have won 3 of 4 games (75%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 4 from 7 (57%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Storm).

Storm get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Bulldogs's -2.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 14.4pts | Avg Score | 23.2pts |
| 36.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| -21.6pts | Avg Margin | -2.0pts |
| 1566.8m | Run Metres | 1633.8m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 4.8 |
| 357.8 | Tackles | 354.6 |
| 12.2 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L · R11 L | 14.4 |
| Storm | R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 W · R11 W | 23.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Storm | 22 – 36 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | FW1 | Storm | 26 – 18 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R25 | Storm | 20 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R6 | Storm | 16 – 14 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R2 | Storm | 12 – 26 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the left edge: NRL's 13th-ranked left edge attack (0.9 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 14th there (1.55 conceded/game). Key man: Kiraz, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Storm's best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.27 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 14th there (2.1 conceded/game). Key man: Faalogo, 12 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.9/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 9th) | 0.64/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.55/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.1/g (def 14th (weak)) | 2.27/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.18/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.4/g (def 11th) | 1.45/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.73/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 8 | 11 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 239m/g | 246m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.4/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 85.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 30 | 31 · 34 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Run Metres | 788m/g | 667m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.8/g | 15.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.2% | 76.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Storm |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 6 | 6 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 458m/g | 488m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 9.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 92.6% |

**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.38/g (lg 1.27) +9% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.73) -3% · 2nd Rows 0.37/g (lg 0.46) -20%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Wingers 1.33/g (lg 1.27) +5% · 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.46) +0% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | FB | 4 in 6g | 7/10g (1·0·1·1·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 4/4g | 11/33g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.79 AI 67% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 6/25g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Enari Tuala | CE | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 4/14g | 26% | — | 🏉 19' |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/9g | 16/40g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/13g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/40g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/25g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Sitili Tupouniua | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 5/17g | 22% | — | 🏉 42' |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 10/28g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/9g | 2/32g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 8/34g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/14g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Underhill | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Alekolasimi Jones | RES | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (3·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 56% | — | — |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 9 in 11g | 8/10g (1·0·4·0·0·1·0·0·2·0) | 1/3g | 4/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 7/24g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Moses Leo | WG | 3 in 6g | 3/8g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 3' 13' |
| 6 | Keagan Russell-Smith | 5/8 | no games | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 4/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Trent Toelau | HK | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 1 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 1/10g | 12% | — | 🏉 24' |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 21% | — | — |
| 13 | Cooper Clarke | LK | 2 in 11g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 14 | Gabriel Satrick | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/29g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Stanley Huen | RES | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Storm hold the ELO advantage (1476 vs 1340), but the market favours Bulldogs (@1.75). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1340 · Storm 1476 · ELO difference: 135 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Storm | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 824 | 957 | Storm +133 |
| Backs | 867 | 1007 | Storm +140 |
| Halves | 834 | 960 | Storm +126 |
| Hooker | 843 | 1013 | Storm +170 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Storm |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-22 12:00 UTC (latest tip update)