NRL | Round 11

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 64 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 49. Sea Eagles led 8–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 5/17 on this match.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

🏁

AI Referee Insights

Grant Atkins officiated this match (317 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 54% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.9 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 67% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

Momentum Replay

Beta

80', Sea Eagles firmly in control (99%)

WES18

1%80'99%

46SEA

← Sea Eagles momentumMomentum +30Wests Tigers momentum →

Biggest Swings

AI Win Probability

68%Sea EaglesFavourite

Wests Tigers

32%

Sea Eagles

68%

✨

AI Match Overview

Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 68%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Wests Tigers. The model sees Sea Eagles ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sea Eagles carry a 155-point ELO rating advantage (1576 vs 1421). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 7.7 points with a combined total of 49.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sea Eagles to Win @1.36

Winner ✓

Edge

-2.5%

✓

Line / Spread

Wests Tigers +8.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 53.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Wests Tigers	R2026-R6W R2026-R7L R2026-R8W R2026-R9L R2026-R10L older → newer	24.2
Sea Eagles	R2026-R6W R2026-R7W R2026-R8W R2026-R9L R2026-R10W	29.4

Avg Conceded

30.6

Wests Tigers

12.8

Sea Eagles

Avg Margin

-6.4

Wests Tigers

16.6

Sea Eagles

Run Metres

1761

Wests Tigers

1808

Sea Eagles

Line Breaks

6.2

Wests Tigers

5.8

Sea Eagles

Referee Indicator

Favours Sea Eagles

Grant Atkins

317 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)

Wests Tigers

12W – 16L

43%

Sea Eagles

20W – 17L

54%

Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 20W–17L (54%) vs Wests Tigers's 12W–16L (43%).

Avg Total

43.1 pts

Home Win %

55%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

12.9

Sin Bins / Gm

0.10

SB Away %

67%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.5

vs Away Teams6.4

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Wests Tigers

+2.5

Sea Eagles

+6.0

Grant Atkins averages 12.9 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Sea Eagles get a +6.0 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Wests Tigers's +2.5.

H2H History (Last 5)Sea Eagles lead 3-2

Aug 2025WST 26 - 12 MAN

Jul 2025WST 10 - 28 MAN

Sep 2024WST 34 - 26 MAN

Sep 2023WST 12 - 54 MAN

Apr 2023WST 16 - 22 MAN

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

WST

1421Overall1576

MAN

ELO difference: -155 in favour of Sea Eagles

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit

951Forwards1074

MAN +123

907Backs1057

MAN +151

947Halves1100

MAN +153

924Hooker1078

MAN +154

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

WST

Stat

MAN

2.0

Wins (Last 5)

4.0

24.2pts

Avg Score

29.4pts

30.6pts

Avg Conceded

12.8pts

-6.4pts

Avg Margin

16.6pts

1761.0m

Run Metres

1808.2m

6.2

Line Breaks

5.8

345.6

Tackles

311.4

12.4

Errors

11.4

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Eagles

Forward Pack12.0%

Eagles

Backline Quality10.0%

Eagles

Halves Control9.0%

Eagles

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Eagles

Referee Tendency7.0%

Tigers

Venue Advantage7.0%

Tigers

Model Confidence

68%

Sea Eagles predicted to win by 8 points

Predicted total: 49 · Line: -7.7

1/4 match predictions correct4/13 scorer picks correct

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Taylan MayWests Tigers

backFair 1.812+ 19%

$2.10

+7.7% edge

Model

55%

Market

48%

Confidence

55%

Lehi HopoateSea Eagles

backFair 1.352+ 39%

$1.49

+6.8% edge

Model

74%

Market

67%

Confidence

74%

Reuben GarrickSea Eagles

backFair 1.742+ 21%

$1.96

+6.6% edge

Model

58%

Market

51%

Confidence

58%

Luke LauliliiWests Tigers

backFair 2.172+ 13%

$1.96

-5.0% edge

Model

46%

Market

51%

Confidence

46%

Sunia TuruvaWests Tigers

backFair 2.492+ 9%

$2.00

-9.8% edge

Model

40%

Market

50%

Confidence

40%

Tolutau KoulaSea Eagles

backFair 2.562+ 9%

$1.86

-14.7% edge

Model

39%

Market

54%

Confidence

39%

Patrick HerbertWests Tigers

backFair 5.492+ 2%

$2.70

-18.8% edge

Model

18%

Market

37%

Confidence

18%

Haumole Olakau'atuSea Eagles

forwardFair 5.882+ 2%

$1.96

-34.0% edge

Model

17%

Market

51%

Confidence

17%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Taylan MayWests Tigers

backFair 3.762+ 19%

$12.00

+18.3% edge

Model

27%

Market

Confidence

27%

Lehi HopoateSea Eagles

backFair 4.002+ 39%

$8.00

+12.5% edge

Model

25%

Market

13%

Confidence

25%

Luke LauliliiWests Tigers

backFair 4.902+ 13%

$11.00

+11.3% edge

Model

20%

Market

Confidence

20%

Sunia TuruvaWests Tigers

backFair 5.882+ 9%

$11.00

+7.9% edge

Model

17%

Market

Confidence

17%

Reuben GarrickSea Eagles

backFair 6.252+ 21%

$11.00

+6.9% edge

Model

16%

Market

Confidence

16%