# Wests Tigers v Sea Eagles — NRL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 18 – 46 Sea Eagles

_Sea Eagles put Wests Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 8 – 24 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 32% / Sea Eagles 68% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 16 May, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Luke Laulilii (22' Tipped ⚡), Jeral Skelton (74'), Kai Pearce-Paul (79') · Sea Eagles: Tolutau Koula (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jason Saab (10'), Lehi Hopoate (16' Tipped ⚡), Clayton Faulalo (32'), Haumole Olakau'atu (43' Tipped ⚡), Jason Saab (56'), Taniela Paseka (59'), Jason Saab (61')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 68% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 32% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.7 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs Manly Sea Eagles Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 May 2026, 04:08 pm · Last updated: 16 May 2026, 04:53 pm_

Wests Tigers 18–46 Sea Eagles in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers actually won a few of the arm wrestles on Saturday. They completed at 74%, kicked for 585 metres to control field position, and threw the ball around with 16 offloads to the Sea Eagles' 5. None of it mattered much. Wests Tigers lost 46-18 at Suncorp Stadium, and the gap between the stats they won and the ones they lost tells you why.

The line break count says everything. Sea Eagles crossed it 14 times to Wests Tigers' 3, and you can't hold up field position and clean handling against that kind of gap forever. Wests Tigers missed 38 tackles to the Sea Eagles' 28, and plenty of those misses turned into space out wide. Manly's forward pack rated at 1074 against Wests Tigers' 951 coming into the game, and the backs gap was even wider, 1057 to 907. The scoreboard matched the ratings.

Sea Eagles were up and running inside three minutes, Tolutau Koula scoring the opener, and by the 15th minute it was 0-16 through Jason Saab and Lehi Hopoate. Wests Tigers got one back through Luke Laulilii in the 21st to make it 4-18, but Clayton Faulalo restored the buffer before the break and it was 8-24 at half-time. That's already a mountain, and the second half only piled more dirt on top of it.

Haumole Olakau'atu extended it to 8-28 early in the second half, then Sea Eagles ran off three tries in six minutes either side of the hour mark: Saab's second, Taniela Paseka, and then Saab's third, taking it out to 8-44. Wests Tigers were down to 12 men for part of that stretch after Heath Mason was sin-binned in the 58th, which didn't help a defence already leaking badly. Jeral Skelton and Kai Pearce-Paul scored late consolation tries to bring the margin back to 28, but by then the game was already decided.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| Sea Eagles | 24 | 22 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 74% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| 1,572 | Run metres | **2,114** |
| 515 | Post-contact metres | **571** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **14** |
| 28 | Tackle breaks | **38** |
| **16** | Offloads | 5 |
| **87.0%** | Effective tackle % | 84.5% |
| 38 | Missed tackles | **28** |
| **11** | Errors | 14 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **585** | Kick metres | 447 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 68% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.7 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 64 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 49. Sea Eagles led 8–24 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 5/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (317 career games). The combined score of 64 points was 21 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Sea Eagles's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Sea Eagles have a 54% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 9' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 15' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 21' Try — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 4-18 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 32' Try — Clayton Faulalo (Sea Eagles) — 6-22 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 43' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 8-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 55' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 8-34 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 58' Sin Bin — Heath Mason (Wests Tigers) — 8-34 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 58' Try — Taniela Paseka (Sea Eagles) — 8-38 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 61' Try — Jason Saab (Sea Eagles) — 8-44 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 74' Try — Jeral Skelton (Wests Tigers) — 12-46 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 78' Try — Kai Pearce-Paul (Wests Tigers) — 16-46 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.36 (edge -2.5%) — model probability 67.5% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +8.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 53.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 8 · Predicted total: 49

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 68% to see off Wests Tigers. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sea Eagles sit 155 ELO points clear, 1576 to 1421. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 7.7, with the two sides combining for about 49. Sea Eagles to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sea Eagles have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sea Eagles took the most recent meeting 46-18 in 2026 Round 11.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 6th against Sea Eagles 5th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Wests Tigers $3.18 and Sea Eagles $1.36, with the line at Wests Tigers +8.5 and the total at 53.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 18.9 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 2 · Sea Eagles 8 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 46-18 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 6th · Sea Eagles 5th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Sea Eagles 0% |
| Market | Wests Tigers $3.18 · Sea Eagles $1.36 |
| Line | Wests Tigers +8.5 · total 53.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 18.9 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sea Eagles

**Grant Atkins** — 317 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 12W–16L | 43% |
| Sea Eagles | 20W–17L | 54% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 55% · Home bias: Leans home

Sea Eagles hold a 11-point edge: 20W–17L (54%) vs Wests Tigers's 12W–16L (43%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Wests Tigers's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.2pts | Avg Score | 29.4pts |
| 30.6pts | Avg Conceded | 12.8pts |
| -6.4pts | Avg Margin | 16.6pts |
| 1761.0m | Run Metres | 1808.2m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 345.6 | Tackles | 311.4 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L | 24.2 |
| Sea Eagles | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W | 29.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 26 – 12 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R17 | Sea Eagles | 28 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R25 | Wests Tigers | 34 – 26 | Sea Eagles |
| 2023 | R27 | Sea Eagles | 54 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2023 | R8 | Wests Tigers | 16 – 22 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 8th there (1.22 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 3rd-ranked middle attack (2.22 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 8th there (1.89 conceded/game). Key man: Fogarty, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.78/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.89/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.89/g (def 8th) | 2.22/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.44/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 12th) | 0.89/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 5 | 7 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 259m/g | 166m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 83.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 24 | 26 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 734m/g | 739m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.6/g | 12.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 3.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 76.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 7 | 8 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 562m/g | 564m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.4/g | 11/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.5% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.2/g (lg 0.16) +25% · Wingers 1.31/g (lg 1.26) +4% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.22) +0%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Props 0.23/g (lg 0.16) +44% · Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.43) +42% · Five-Eighths 0.37/g (lg 0.27) +37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heath Mason | FB | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 4/6g | 3/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Patrick Herbert | CE | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 18% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Taylan May | CE | 5 in 5g | 8/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1·2) | 1/2g | 0/3g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 27% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/18g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jock Madden | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Latu Fainu | HK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 15% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Sione Fainu | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 14% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 14 | Tristan Hope | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Mavrik Geyer | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Royce Hunt | INT | 2 in 9g | 4/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/9g | 14% | — | — |

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clayton Faulalo | FB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 23% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 5/8g | 38% | — | 🏉 10' 56' 61' |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/6g | 1/4g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·1) | 5/10g | 6/11g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 8 in 9g | 10/10g (2·0·0·0·2·1·2·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.49 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 25% ✗ Not first | 🏉 16' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 0/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/10g | 6% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Ethan Bullemor | PR | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 3/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/9g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 17% ✓ Scored | 🏉 43' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/17g | 4/15g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/58g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jackson Shereb | RES | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1421 · Sea Eagles 1576 · ELO difference: 155 in favour of Sea Eagles

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Sea Eagles | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 951 | 1074 | Sea Eagles +123 |
| Backs | 907 | 1057 | Sea Eagles +151 |
| Halves | 947 | 1100 | Sea Eagles +153 |
| Hooker | 924 | 1078 | Sea Eagles +154 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 68%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 49 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-16 06:53 UTC (latest tip update)