# Warriors v Broncos — NRL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 42 – 12 Broncos

_Warriors put Broncos to the sword._

Half time: 22 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 66% / Broncos 34% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 17 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (12' 1st Tipped 🎯), Erin Clark (22'), Wayde Egan (27'), Kurt Capewell (34'), Ali Leiataua (45'), Te Maire Martin (47'), Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (68' 1st Tipped 🎯) · Broncos: Adam Reynolds (41'), Adam Reynolds (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 66% | Won |
| Broncos | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.2 predicted → 30 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 May 2026, 04:08 pm · Last updated: 17 May 2026, 06:07 pm_

Warriors 42–12 Broncos in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had Warriors by 5.2 and a combined total of 43. It got the winner right, backed at 66% probability, and it got the total almost spot on at 54 points played. What it didn't see coming was the shape of the margin: Warriors by 30, not 5. That's the read holding on one front and breaking badly on another.

The gap between forecast and reality was built early. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak opened the scoring in the 12th minute, and by the 33rd, Warriors had put on four unanswered tries through Erin Clark, Wayde Egan and Kurt Capewell to lead 20-0. Patrick Carrigan's sin bin in the 26th didn't help Broncos find a foothold. By half-time it was 22-0, and a 5.2-point margin prediction was already a bad joke.

The pre-match numbers explain why Warriors were favoured, just not by how much. Warriors held the edge everywhere that matters up front: forwards rated 1102 to 1036, halves 1088 to 996, hooker 1122 to 1009. Wayde Egan's presence at dummy-half showed up exactly where you'd expect, in a Warriors offload count of 7 to Broncos' 3 and 501 post-contact metres to 386. Broncos actually won the tackle-break count 31 to 30, but it didn't translate, because Warriors kept finding the extra metre after contact and Broncos didn't have the ball often enough to make their line-breaks count, four to Warriors' six.

Discipline was where the game really got away from Broncos. Thirteen penalties conceded to Warriors' five is a shocking split, and it fed directly into a possession count that ran 55-45 the Warriors' way. Warriors' completion rate, 87% to 81%, meant they made Broncos work harder for less ball. Add in 587 kick metres to 513 and it's a side that controlled field position for long stretches without needing to force anything.

Adam Reynolds did what he could, scoring twice for Broncos either side of half-time, in the 40th and 51st minutes, to get them to 22-4 and then 34-10. Both tries came after Warriors had already built commanding leads, so they read more as scoreboard management than a fightback. Broncos' form coming in, two wins from five with an average margin of minus 5, suggested a side that could be competitive but not one built to withstand a 22-point deficit at the break.

Warriors, by contrast, arrived on the back of four wins from five and an average winning margin of 8.4. Nothing in that form line predicted a 30-point demolition either, which is really the story of this one. Dallin Watene-Zelezniak's second try in the 68th minute, Ali Leiataua's and Te Maire Martin's tries either side of it, these were a side pulling further ahead of a Broncos team that never got the ball or the field position to respond.

Alphr's model went 4 from 17 on the card this round, and Warriors covered the 2.5-point line with plenty to spare. The winner was never really in doubt. The margin was the whole ball game, and this one blew straight past it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 22 | 20 | 42 |
| Broncos | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **87%** | Completion rate | 81% |
| **1,768** | Run metres | 1,348 |
| **501** | Post-contact metres | 386 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **31** |
| **7** | Offloads | 3 |
| **89.5%** | Effective tackle % | 88.7% |
| 31 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 13 |
| **587** | Kick metres | 513 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Warriors to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.2 but the actual margin was 30 points. Warriors led 22–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 30. The model went 4/17 on this match. Warriors covered the 2.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (385 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 10 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Warriors bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 58% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 12' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 21' Try — Erin Clark (Warriors) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Sin Bin — Patrick Carrigan (Broncos) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 27' Try — Wayde Egan (Warriors) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 33' Try — Kurt Capewell (Warriors) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 37' Sin Bin — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Warriors) — 20-0 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 40' Try — Adam Reynolds (Broncos) — 22-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 44' Try — Ali Leiataua (Warriors) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 47' Try — Te Maire Martin (Warriors) — 32-6 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 51' Try — Adam Reynolds (Broncos) — 34-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 68' Try — Dallin Watene-Zelezniak (Warriors) — 40-12 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.69 (edge +9.6%) — model probability 65.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 5 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Warriors here: 66% to see off Broncos. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 77 ELO points clear, 1595 to 1518. Form leans Warriors' way: 4 from their last 5, against 2 for Broncos.

Warriors own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Warriors by 5.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Warriors to win, not to win big.

Warriors have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 40-6 in 2026 Round 24.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four. Broncos have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Warriors 2nd against Broncos 11th.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.69 and Broncos $2.17, with the line at Warriors -2.5 and the total at 51.5.

Warriors come in fresher, 14 days between games against 7.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 14.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game, home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 6 · Broncos 4 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 40-6 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 2nd · Broncos 11th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Broncos 0% |
| Market | Warriors $1.69 · Broncos $2.17 |
| Line | Warriors -2.5 · total 51.5 |
| Rest gap | Warriors 14d · Broncos 7d |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 14.3 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Ashley Klein** — 385 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 12W–22L | 35% |
| Broncos | 29W–21L | 58% |

Avg total: 43.5 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

When Ashley Klein officiates, Broncos have won 29 of 50 games (58%), significantly stronger than Warriors's 12 from 34 (35%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Broncos's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 28.8pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Conceded | 27.4pts |
| 8.4pts | Avg Margin | -5.0pts |
| 1668.6m | Run Metres | 1371.6m |
| 6.6 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 321.0 | Tackles | 351.8 |
| 9.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 28.8 |
| Broncos | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 L | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Broncos | 6 – 40 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R17 | Broncos | 26 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2025 | R7 | Warriors | 20 – 18 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R17 | Warriors | 32 – 16 | Broncos |
| 2023 | PF | Broncos | 42 – 12 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.56 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 11th there (1.9 conceded/game). Key man: Ford, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 8th-ranked middle attack (1.8 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 4th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.22/g (att 7th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.2/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.8/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.9/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 1.44/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.9/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.7/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 3 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 163m/g | 127m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.3% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 18 | 21 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 625m/g | 611m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 13.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.4% | 78.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 7 | 7 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 595m/g | 545m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.6/g | 7.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.8% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.73) +23%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.86/g (lg 0.73) +18% · Fullbacks 0.5/g (lg 0.43) +16% · Wingers 1.16/g (lg 1.26) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | 10 in 9g | 10/10g (0·0·2·0·0·3·2·1·1·1) | 7/11g | 5/17g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.69 AI 73% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 23% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' 68' |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/11g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 6 in 5g | 10/10g (2·2·0·0·0·0·0·2·2·2) | 7/6g | 11/8g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.65 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 1/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/11g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 2/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/11g | 6% | — | 🏉 27' |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 5 in 9g | 6/10g (1·1·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 10/38g | 16% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/11g | 1/14g | 12% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 7% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | INT | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Laban | RES | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 9% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 7g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/3g | 23/39g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 9/20g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Arthars | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 18/53g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/6g | 13/25g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 27% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Phillip Coates | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 21/41g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 10/63g | 14% | — | 🏉 41' 52' |
| 8 | Preston Riki | PR | 0 in 2g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 6/47g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Xavier Willison | PR | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/4g | 7/35g | 22% | — | — |
| 11 | Jaiyden Hunt | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/17g | 2% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 3 in 10g | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 13/72g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/7g | 2/71g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Ben Hunt | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/24g | 26/116g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 3/9g | 23% | — | — |
| 16 | Va'a Semu | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1595 · Broncos 1518 · ELO difference: 77 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1102 | 1036 | Warriors +66 |
| Backs | 1083 | 999 | Warriors +85 |
| Halves | 1088 | 996 | Warriors +92 |
| Hooker | 1122 | 1009 | Warriors +112 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Warriors |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Warriors |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Broncos |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Warriors predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-17 08:07 UTC (latest tip update)