NRL | Round 11

alphr.com.au

Sun 17 May4:05pm

NZLNZL

BRIBRI

Sun 17 May6:25pm

PENPEN

SGISGI

NZL

Warriors

BRI

Broncos

SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • SUNDAY 17 MAY, 4:05 PM

AI Win Probability

66%WarriorsFavourite

Warriors

66%

Broncos

34%

✨

AI Match Overview

Warriors are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Broncos. The model sees Warriors ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Warriors carry a 77-point ELO rating advantage (1595 vs 1518). The margin model predicts Warriors by 5.2 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Warriors to Win @1.69

Edge

+9.6%

Line / Spread

Warriors -2.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Warriors 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 51.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Warriors	W W W L L	24.4
Broncos	W W W L L	26.8

Avg Conceded

24.0

Warriors

23.4

Broncos

Avg Margin

0.4

Warriors

3.4

Broncos

Run Metres

1601

Warriors

1515

Broncos

Line Breaks

5.6

Warriors

4.6

Broncos

Referee Indicator

Favours Broncos

Ashley Klein

385 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)

Warriors

12W – 22L

35%

Broncos

29W – 21L

58%

When Ashley Klein officiates, Broncos have won 29 of 50 games (58%) — significantly stronger than Warriors's 12 from 34 (35%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

43.5 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

8.9

Sin Bins / Gm

0.16

SB Away %

42%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams4.3

vs Away Teams4.6

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Warriors

-0.3

Broncos

-0.3

Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game — well below average. He lets the game flow.

H2H History (Last 5)Broncos lead 3-2

Jul 2025NZL 12 - 26 BRI

Apr 2025NZL 20 - 18 BRI

Jul 2024NZL 32 - 16 BRI

Oct 2023NZL 12 - 42 BRI

Jun 2023NZL 22 - 26 BRI

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NZL

1595Overall1518

BRI

ELO difference: +77 in favour of Warriors

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1102Forwards1036

NZL +66

1083Backs999

NZL +85

1088Halves996

NZL +92

1122Hooker1009

NZL +112

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NZL

Stat

BRI

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

3.0

24.4pts

Avg Score

26.8pts

24.0pts

Avg Conceded

23.4pts

0.4pts

Avg Margin

3.4pts

1601.2m

Run Metres

1515.0m

5.6

Line Breaks

4.6

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Warriors

Forward Pack12.0%

Warriors

Backline Quality10.0%

Warriors

Halves Control9.0%

Warriors

Recent Win Rate9.0%

—

Referee Tendency7.0%

Warriors

Venue Advantage7.0%

Warriors

Model Confidence

66%

Warriors predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: +5.2

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Dallin Watene-ZelezniakWarriors

backFair 1.362+ 38%

$1.69

+14.1% edge

Model

73%

Market

59%

Confidence

73%

Alofiana Khan-PereiraWarriors

backFair 1.462+ 32%

$1.65

+7.7% edge

Model

68%

Market

61%

Confidence

68%

Leka HalasimaWarriors

forwardFair 2.512+ 9%

$2.40

-1.9% edge

Model

40%

Market

42%

Confidence

40%

Reece WalshBroncos

backFair 2.012+ 15%

$1.85

-4.3% edge

Model

50%

Market

54%

Confidence

50%

Jesse ArtharsBroncos

backFair 3.302+ 5%

$2.80

-5.4% edge

Model

30%

Market

36%

Confidence

30%

Adam PompeyWarriors

backFair 3.362+ 5%

$2.85

-5.4% edge

Model

30%

Market

35%

Confidence

30%

Gehamat ShibasakiBroncos

backFair 3.732+ 4%

$2.75

-9.6% edge

Model

27%

Market

36%

Confidence

27%

Josiah KarapaniBroncos

backFair 2.642+ 8%

$1.99

-12.3% edge

Model

38%

Market

50%

Confidence

38%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Dallin Watene-ZelezniakWarriors

backFair 4.312+ 38%

$8.50

+11.4% edge

Model

23%

Market

12%

Confidence

23%

Alofiana Khan-PereiraWarriors

backFair 4.952+ 32%

$8.50

+8.4% edge

Model

20%

Market

12%

Confidence

20%

Reece WalshBroncos

backFair 5.912+ 15%

$10.00

+6.9% edge

Model

17%

Market

10%

Confidence

17%

Josiah KarapaniBroncos

backFair 8.532+ 8%

$10.00

+1.7% edge

Model

12%

Market

10%

Confidence

12%

Jesse ArtharsBroncos

backFair 11.272+ 5%

$14.00

+1.7% edge

Model

Market

Confidence