AI Win Probability
Titans
38%
Knights
62%
AI Match Overview
Knights hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Titans are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Knights ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Knights carry a 126-point ELO rating advantage (1456 vs 1331). The margin model predicts Knights by 4.9 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @1.33
Edge
-9.3%
Line / Spread
Titans +9.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Knights 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 56.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W W L L L | 23.6 |
Knights | W W L L L | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
21.2
Titans
34.8
Knights
Avg Margin
2.4
Titans
-8.4
Knights
Run Metres
1785
Titans
1482
Knights
Line Breaks
5.0
Titans
5.0
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours TitansWyatt Raymond
45 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Titans have won 2 of 6 games (33%) — significantly stronger than Knights's 1 from 6 (17%). Games average 50.0 pts — above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 62% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Titans).
Avg Total
50.0 pts
Home Win %
62%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.44
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Titans get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Knights's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Knights predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: -4.9
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.