# Titans v Knights — NRL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 12 – 36 Knights

_Knights charge down Titans._

Half time: 6 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 38% / Knights 62% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 17 May, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Oliver Pascoe (2' 1st), Kurtis Morrin (57') · Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (27'), Greg Marzhew (45' Tipped ⚡), Dominic Young (52' Tipped ⚡), Dominic Young (62' Tipped ⚡), Dane Gagai (66'), Fletcher Sharpe (68'), Dominic Young (73' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 62% | Won |
| Titans | 38% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.9 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 May 2026, 04:08 pm · Last updated: 17 May 2026, 03:55 pm_

Titans 12–36 Knights in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two ways to play a footy match: hang onto the ball and grind, or chuck it around and hope your metres win out. At Suncorp Stadium, the Knights did the first and the Titans were left doing a version of the second without much choice. Final score 36-12, and it wasn't as tight as the half-time board suggested.

That board read 6-6. Oliver Pascoe had the Titans away inside two minutes, first points on the night, and it took until the 26th minute for Fletcher Sharpe to level it up for the Knights. Nothing in that sequence screamed 30-point margin. Everything after it did.

The Knights scored six unanswered tries from the 45th minute, and the sequence tells the story better than any adjective could. Greg Marzhew in the 45th, Dominic Young in the 51st, then Kurtis Morrin got one back for the Titans in the 56th to make it 10-18 and suggest a contest was still alive. It wasn't. Young struck again in the 61st, Dane Gagai in the 66th, Sharpe's second in the 68th, and Young completed his hat-trick in the 72nd. Three tries in nine minutes from the same man is not a defence having a bad night, it's a defence that's stopped having nights at all.

The completion rate says why. Knights finished at 79%, Titans at 63%, and in a game with that many line breaks going around, that gap in ball control matters more than raw ambition. The Titans threw it around with 13 offloads to the Knights' 10, and still had less to show for it, because they gifted it back 17 times to 13. You can't out-offload a side when you're handing them the footy at that rate.

Territory told the same tale. Knights kicked for 589 metres to the Titans' 452, and ran for 2,000 to the Titans' 1,637. Line breaks went 7-5 their way too. The only column the Titans genuinely won was penalties conceded, 3 to 6, and even that didn't translate into field position when the boot and the ball control were both going the other way.

None of this should surprise anyone who looked at the sheet beforehand. Knights came in rated stronger everywhere that counts, forwards 919 to 832, halves 960 to 869, hooker 926 to 835. Add in a Knights side on a two-from-five run against a Titans outfit at one-from-five, and the shape of the result was there before kickoff.

Alphr's model backed the Knights at 62% and got the winner right, which is the easy bit. The margin read was the miss, tipped at 4.9 points and landing 24 out. The total was the redeeming line: picked at 48, and the game finished at 48 on the nose. Four from seventeen on the night overall, with the under on 56.5 the other correct call. Wins and misses, all of it, and the margin one's going in the ledger as a lesson on how quickly a six-all game can turn into a laugher once one side stops giving the ball back.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Knights | 6 | 30 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 63% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| 1,637 | Run metres | **2,000** |
| 508 | Post-contact metres | **540** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 26 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| **13** | Offloads | 10 |
| 87.3% | Effective tackle % | **87.5%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **26** |
| 17 | Errors | **13** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 452 | Kick metres | **589** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 62% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.9 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 48, within 0 points. The model went 4/17 on this match. The under 56.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (45 career games). The 48-point combined total was right in line with Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Knights bucked the trend, Titans historically win 33% of games under Wyatt Raymond, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Wyatt Raymond's 62% career home-team win rate, the away side Knights prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Oliver Pascoe (Titans) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 26' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 45' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 51' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 56' Try — Kurtis Morrin (Titans) — 10-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 61' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 12-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 66' Try — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 12-26 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 68' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 12-32 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 72' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 12-36 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.33 (edge -9.3%) — model probability 62.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 56.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Knights by 5 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Knights are the call at 62%, but Titans stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Knights sit 126 ELO points clear, 1456 to 1331. Form leans Knights' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Knights own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Knights by 4.9, with the two sides combining for about 48. Lean Knights, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 36-26 in 2026 Round 24.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Titans 16th against Knights 8th.

The market has Knights favourites, Titans $3.36 and Knights $1.33, with the line at Titans +9.5 and the total at 56.5.

Wyatt Raymond has the whistle: 12.1 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game, home sides win 62% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 3 · Knights 7 |
| Last meeting | Knights 36-26 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLWW · 88 for, 110 against |
| Knights away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 16th · Knights 8th |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Knights 100% |
| Market | Titans $3.36 · Knights $1.33 |
| Line | Titans +9.5 · total 56.5 |
| Referee | Wyatt Raymond · 12.1 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Titans

**Wyatt Raymond** — 45 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 2W–4L | 33% |
| Knights | 1W–5L | 17% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 62% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Titans have won 2 of 6 games (33%), significantly stronger than Knights's 1 from 6 (17%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 62% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Titans).

Titans get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Knights's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 21.6pts | Avg Score | 28.8pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 34.4pts |
| -2.4pts | Avg Margin | -5.6pts |
| 1804.8m | Run Metres | 1490.0m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 6.8 |
| 347.6 | Tackles | 339.2 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R9 L · R10 L | 21.6 |
| Knights | R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 W | 28.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Knights | 36 – 26 | Titans |
| 2025 | R10 | Knights | 20 – 24 | Titans |
| 2025 | R3 | Titans | 26 – 6 | Knights |
| 2024 | R26 | Knights | 36 – 14 | Titans |
| 2024 | R11 | Titans | 24 – 28 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the middle: NRL's 15th-ranked middle attack (1.11 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.5 conceded/game). Key man: Campbell, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.2 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 4th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.11/g (att 9th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.1/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.11/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 10th) | 1.6/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.5/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.2/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.3/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 9 | 5 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 182m/g | 203m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.1/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.6% | 85.8% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 27 | 33 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 735m/g | 707m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.3/g | 20.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.3/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 75% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 5 | 9 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 492m/g | 496m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.17) +29%
**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.74/g (lg 0.43) +72% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 1/6g | 12% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 20% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Jensen Taumoepeau | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 4/6g | 2/7g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 1 in 8g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/9g | 6/14g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1·0) | 8/9g | 6/15g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.84 AI 57% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 4 in 7g | 6/10g (0·1·1·2·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/8g | 34% | — | — |
| 7 | Zane Harrison | HB | 0 in 4g | 0/4g (0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 0/20g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 4/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 3/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 5/12g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 19% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 10% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 15 | Klese Haas | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/9g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Patston | RES | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 9% | — | — |
| 17 | Arama Hau | INT | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 21% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/11g | 3/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 11 in 10g | 11/10g (1·2·0·3·2·1·0·0·0·2) | 8/5g | 5/6g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.52 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 52' 62' 73' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/19g | 7/24g | 12% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 13 in 9g | 14/10g (1·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·3·5) | 1/5g | 1/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.40 AI 86% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.00 AI 32% ✗ Not first | 🏉 45' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | CE | 2 in 8g | 5/10g (2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 3/1g | 46% | — | 🏉 27' 68' |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 1/11g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 1/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/10g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 1/4g | 0/4g | 30% | 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/20g | 1/18g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/6g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Cody Hopwood | RES | 0 in 7g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1331 · Knights 1456 · ELO difference: 126 in favour of Knights

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 832 | 919 | Knights +87 |
| Backs | 846 | 942 | Knights +96 |
| Halves | 869 | 960 | Knights +91 |
| Hooker | 835 | 926 | Knights +91 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Knights |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Knights predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-17 05:55 UTC (latest tip update)