# Sharks v Bulldogs — NRL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 38 – 16 Bulldogs

_Sharks devour Bulldogs._

Half time: 30 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 66% / Bulldogs 34% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 15 May, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: Braydon Trindall (4' 1st), Ronaldo Mulitalo (10' Tipped ⚡), William Kennedy (16' Tipped ⚡), Hohepa Puru (23'), Nicho Hynes (33'), Ronaldo Mulitalo (71' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Jacob Preston (29' Tipped ⚡), Stephen Crichton (59' Tipped ⚡), Bronson Xerri (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 66% | Won |
| Bulldogs | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.9 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 May 2026, 04:08 pm · Last updated: 15 May 2026, 08:00 pm_

Sharks 38–16 Bulldogs in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Sharks led 22-0 before the 23-minute mark, and from there the Bulldogs were chasing a gap that never really closed. Braydon Trindall opened the scoring inside three minutes, Ronaldo Mulitalo followed at nine, William Kennedy crossed at sixteen and Hohepa Puru made it four tries to none by the 23rd minute. Four different scorers, four separate sets, and the Bulldogs hadn't touched the ball for a point.

Jacob Preston finally got the Bulldogs on the board at 29 minutes. It didn't slow the Sharks down. Nicho Hynes replied three minutes later to make it 28-6, and by half-time the score read 30-6. A two-score margin at the break, but the gap by then already looked like more than that.

The Bulldogs didn't fold in the second half. Stephen Crichton crossed at 59 minutes to cut into it, but Mulitalo grabbed his second five minutes into the final quarter's approach, at 71, to push the score to 36-12. Bronson Xerri got one back at 77 to make it 38-16, the final score. Three of the four second-half tries went to the Bulldogs, but the 24-point head start from the first half was too much to chase down.

Strip away the scoreline and the stat sheet tells a messier story than 38-16 suggests. The Bulldogs actually won plenty of the underlying battles. They had 51% of possession to the Sharks' 49%, more run metres at 1,606 to 1,536, and more than double the tackle breaks, 35 to 16. Their defence was tighter too, an effective tackle rate of 92.2% against the Sharks' 88.0%, and they conceded only 16 missed tackles to the Sharks' 35.

Where the Sharks won, they won by enough to matter. Their completion rate sat at 86% compared to the Bulldogs' 76%, and they made 517 post-contact metres to the Bulldogs' 456, grinding out extra territory after first contact. They also offloaded more, 10 to 7, and controlled the boot with 815 kicking metres to 631. Discipline was the biggest gap of all: the Sharks conceded just one penalty all match, while the Bulldogs gave away five, handing field position straight back in bunches.

Errors were close, 13 for the Sharks to 12 for the Bulldogs, so it wasn't a case of one side coughing up cheap ball. It was more that the Sharks made their opportunities count early and built a buffer the Bulldogs' improved back-half form couldn't erase, even with more line breaks (5 to 4) and clearly the better go-forward through the middle.

Alphr's model had Sharks as 66% favourites going in, with ratings of 1509 to the Bulldogs' 1363, and got the winner right. The margin was another story: the model predicted a 4.9-point win, the Sharks won by 22. It's the kind of result that shows up why margin models are the harder half of this business, sitting at 5 wins from 17 married calls this season so far.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 30 | 8 | 38 |
| Bulldogs | 6 | 10 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| 1,536 | Run metres | **1,606** |
| **517** | Post-contact metres | 456 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 16 | Tackle breaks | **35** |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| 88.0% | Effective tackle % | **92.2%** |
| 35 | Missed tackles | **16** |
| 13 | Errors | **12** |
| **1** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **815** | Kick metres | 631 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.9 but the actual margin was 22 points. The model went 5/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (366 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 12 points above Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Gerard Sutton's historical trend, Sharks have a 54% win rate under this referee. Sharks's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 9' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 16' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 23' Try — Hohepa Puru (Sharks) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 29' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 24-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 32' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 28-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 59' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 32-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 71' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 36-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 38-16 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.57 (edge +5.4%) — model probability 66.1% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 5 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 66% to see off Bulldogs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 146 ELO points clear, 1509 to 1363. Form leans Sharks' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Bulldogs.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sharks by 4.9, with the two sides combining for about 46. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sharks to win, not to win big.

Sharks have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 38-16 in 2026 Round 11.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four.

On the ladder it's Sharks 10th against Bulldogs 13th.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.57 and Bulldogs $2.42, with the line at Sharks -5.5 and the total at 50.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 16.4 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 8 · Bulldogs 2 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 38-16 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 10th · Bulldogs 13th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Bulldogs 0% |
| Market | Sharks $1.57 · Bulldogs $2.42 |
| Line | Sharks -5.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 16.4 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Gerard Sutton** — 366 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 25W–21L | 54% |
| Bulldogs | 15W–25L | 38% |

Avg total: 41.9 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sharks have won 25 of 46 games (54%), significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 15 from 40 (38%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 31.2pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 29.6pts | Avg Conceded | 31.6pts |
| 1.6pts | Avg Margin | -14.0pts |
| 1691.8m | Run Metres | 1616.0m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 334.4 | Tackles | 351.4 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R5 W · R6 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 L | 31.2 |
| Bulldogs | R6 W · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L · R10 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R27 | Bulldogs | 6 – 24 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R4 | Sharks | 6 – 20 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R17 | Bulldogs | 15 – 14 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R2 | Sharks | 25 – 6 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R16 | Sharks | 48 – 10 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.44 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 12th there (1.56 conceded/game). Key man: Wilton, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 11th-ranked middle attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 6th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Galvin, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.67/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 14th (weak)) | 0.78/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.22/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.89/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.67/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.67/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.89/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.44/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 12th) | 0.44/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.56/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 7 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 3.2/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 192m/g | 241m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.8/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.7% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 27 | 9 · 27 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 745m/g | 785m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.1/g | 12.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3/g | 1.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 78.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 7 | 7 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 441m/g | 466m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.8/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 90.6% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Wingers 1.32/g (lg 1.26) +5% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.46) +2% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.17/g (lg 0.1) +70% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 1.26) -4%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 7/12g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 16' |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 2/1g | 41% | — | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 1/10g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 39% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·0·0·0·1·1·0·3·3·1) | 1/5g | 1/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 22% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | no games | 11/10g (0·1·2·0·2·3·0·2·1·0) | 6/9g | 3/11g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.85 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 10' 71' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 4/11g | 26% | — | 🏉 4' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 2/14g | 20% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/15g | 1/13g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Jayden Berrell | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 2/13g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·3·0) | 2/9g | 2/9g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 1/12g | 4/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 14% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 8/12g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Jonathan Sua | WG | 1 in 5g | 1/7g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 28% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/8g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 5/11g | 7/18g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 23% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | WG | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 5/9g | 26% | — | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/9g | 7/17g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Sitili Tupouniua | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/14g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 3 in 9g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/7g | 36% | 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 29' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 1/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 3/14g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Alekolasimi Jones | RES | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1509 · Bulldogs 1363 · ELO difference: 146 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1031 | 886 | Sharks +145 |
| Backs | 991 | 835 | Sharks +156 |
| Halves | 995 | 846 | Sharks +149 |
| Hooker | 1015 | 895 | Sharks +120 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Sharks |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Sharks predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-15 10:00 UTC (latest tip update)