NRL | Round 11

Sharks are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bulldogs. The model sees Sharks ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 146-point ELO rating advantage (1509 vs 1363). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Bulldogs. The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.9 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Sharks to Win @1.57

Edge

+5.4%

Line / Spread

Bulldogs +5.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Sharks 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 50.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Sharks	W W W L L	35.6
Bulldogs	W L L L L	20.0

Avg Conceded

26.8

Sharks

29.2

Bulldogs

Avg Margin

8.8

Sharks

-9.2

Bulldogs

Run Metres

1721

Sharks

1654

Bulldogs

Line Breaks

6.4

Sharks

3.8

Bulldogs

Referee Indicator

Favours Sharks

Gerard Sutton

366 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)

Sharks

25W – 21L

54%

Bulldogs

15W – 25L

38%

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Sharks have won 25 of 46 games (54%) — significantly stronger than Bulldogs's 15 from 40 (38%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Avg Total

41.9 pts

Home Win %

56%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

11.8

Sin Bins / Gm

0.12

SB Away %

61%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams5.7

vs Away Teams6.1

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Sharks

-0.3

Bulldogs

-0.6

Sharks get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Bulldogs's -0.6. 61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.

H2H History (Last 5)Sharks lead 3-2

Sep 2025CRO 24 - 6 CBY

Mar 2025CRO 6 - 20 CBY

Jul 2024CRO 14 - 15 CBY

Mar 2024CRO 25 - 6 CBY

Jun 2023CRO 48 - 10 CBY

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

CRO

1509Overall1363

CBY

ELO difference: +146 in favour of Sharks

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1031Forwards886

CRO +145

991Backs835

CRO +156

995Halves846

CRO +149

1015Hooker895

CRO +120

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

CRO

Stat

CBY

3.0

Wins (Last 5)

1.0

35.6pts

Avg Score

20.0pts

26.8pts

Avg Conceded

29.2pts

8.8pts

Avg Margin

-9.2pts

1721.4m

Run Metres

1653.6m

6.4

Line Breaks

3.8

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Sharks

Forward Pack12.0%

Sharks

Backline Quality10.0%

Sharks

Halves Control9.0%

Sharks

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Sharks

Referee Tendency7.0%

Sharks

Venue Advantage7.0%

Sharks

Model Confidence

66%

Sharks predicted to win by 5 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: +4.9

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

KL IroSharks

backFair 1.162+ 59%

$1.93

+34.7% edge

Model

86%

Market

52%

Confidence

86%

Ronaldo MulitaloSharks

backFair 1.262+ 47%

$1.85

+25.4% edge

Model

79%

Market

54%

Confidence

79%

Lachlan GalvinBulldogs

halfFair 1.782+ 20%

$2.90

+21.7% edge

Model

56%

Market

34%

Confidence

56%

William KennedySharks

backFair 2.172+ 13%

$2.65

+8.4% edge

Model

46%

Market

38%

Confidence

46%

Jesse RamienSharks

backFair 2.532+ 9%

$2.70

+2.4% edge

Model

39%

Market

37%

Confidence

39%

Bronson XerriBulldogs

backFair 3.292+ 5%

$2.80

-5.3% edge

Model

30%

Market

36%

Confidence

30%

Stephen CrichtonBulldogs

backFair 4.432+ 3%

$2.55

-16.6% edge

Model

23%

Market

39%

Confidence

23%

Jonathan SuaBulldogs

backFair 3.622+ 4%

$2.25

-16.8% edge

Model

28%

Market

44%

Confidence

28%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

KL IroSharks

backFair 4.572+ 59%

$9.50

+11.3% edge

Model

22%

Market

11%

Confidence

22%

Ronaldo MulitaloSharks

backFair 5.772+ 47%

$9.00

+6.2% edge

Model

17%

Market

11%

Confidence

17%

Jacob PrestonBulldogs

forwardFair 8.052+ 9%

$14.00

+5.3% edge

Model

12%

Market

Confidence

12%

Bronson XerriBulldogs

backFair 11.052+ 5%

$14.00

+1.9% edge

Model

Market

Confidence

Jonathan SuaBulldogs

backFair 12.392+ 4%

$12.00

-0.3% edge

Model

Market

Confidence