# Roosters v Cowboys — NRL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 12 – 18 Cowboys

_Cowboys wrangle a gallant Roosters._

Half time: 6 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 71% / Cowboys 29% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 16 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Cody Ramsey (9' 1st), Hugo Savala (55' Tipped ⚡) · Cowboys: Braidon Burns (22' Tipped ⚡), Scott Drinkwater (28' Tipped ⚡), Braidon Burns (31' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 71% | Lost |
| Cowboys | 29% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.0 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 May 2026, 04:08 pm · Last updated: 16 May 2026, 07:30 pm_

Roosters 12–18 Cowboys in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eighteen errors to five. That's the gap that decided this one at Suncorp Stadium, where the Cowboys held on for an 18-12 win over the Roosters despite getting beaten up all over the park in the collision stats.

Cody Ramsey opened the scoring in the ninth minute, and for two minutes the Roosters looked like the better side. Then Matthew Lodge was sin binned, and the Cowboys made the extra man count in full. Braidon Burns scored in the 22nd, Scott Drinkwater in the 27th, then Burns again in the 31st. By half-time it was 18-6 to the Cowboys. Reuben Cotter copped his own sin bin in the 54th minute, and Hugo Savala scored moments later to get the Roosters to 18-10, but that's as close as they came.

Look at the underlying numbers and the scoreline barely makes sense. The Roosters ran for 1,960 metres to the Cowboys' 1,539, put up 663 post-contact metres to 514, busted 47 tackles to 26, and offloaded 12 times to 8. They even won the line break count, 3 to 2. That's the profile of a team piling on the pressure, not one that loses by 6.

The problem was what they did with the ball once they had it. Eighteen errors is a horror number, more than triple the Cowboys' 5, and it showed up in the completion rate: 70% for the Roosters against 91% for the Cowboys. Every time the Roosters built pressure, they seemed to find a way to hand possession straight back. The Cowboys held 52% of the footy overall, nothing extreme, but enough to control the rhythm of the game while the Roosters bled ball at the wrong moments.

Add the kicking game to that. The Cowboys put boot to ball for 1,033 metres compared to the Roosters' 522. They were happy to sit off, let the Roosters carry it back, and trust their line speed and the scoreboard to do the rest.

Defensively, the ledger actually favours the Roosters, which makes the result stranger still. They tackled at 91.1% effective compared to the Cowboys' 84.3%, and missed only 26 tackles to the Cowboys' 47. Normally that gap buries a team. It didn't here, because the four Cowboys tries came in a cluster either side of the Lodge sin bin, and the Roosters were chasing a scoreboard rather than a stat sheet for most of the second half.

None of this matches what walked into the ground. The Roosters carried the stronger forward pack, 1142 to 951, the better backline at 1118 to 997, sharper halves at 1115 to 953, and a clear edge at hooker, 1170 to 980. Form favoured them too: five straight wins coming in, against a Cowboys side that had dropped two of its last five. Alphr's model had the Roosters winning 71% of the time, favoured them by 9 points, and pegged the total at 46.

None of it landed. The Cowboys covered the 15.5-point line comfortably, the total came in at 30, well under the 57.5 mark, and the model finished 5 from 17 on the night. Eighteen errors will do that to a team, no matter how good the rest of the stat sheet looks.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Cowboys | 18 | 0 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 70% | Completion rate | **91%** |
| **1,960** | Run metres | 1,539 |
| **663** | Post-contact metres | 514 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **47** | Tackle breaks | 26 |
| **12** | Offloads | 8 |
| **91.1%** | Effective tackle % | 84.3% |
| **26** | Missed tackles | 47 |
| 18 | Errors | **5** |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 522 | Kick metres | **1,033** |

**Model Report Card**

Cowboys defied the model's 71% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.0 but the actual margin was 6 points. The game's 30 points came in 16 points lower than the predicted 46. The model went 5/17 on this match. Cowboys covered the 15.5-point line. The under 57.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (104 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 16 points below Todd Smith's career average of 46. Cowboys bucked the trend, Roosters historically win 62% of games under Todd Smith, but couldn't convert that edge today.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — Cody Ramsey (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 11' Sin Bin — Matthew Lodge (Cowboys) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 22' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 27' Try — Scott Drinkwater (Cowboys) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 6-16 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 54' Sin Bin — Reuben Cotter (Cowboys) — 6-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 54' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 10-18 · win-prob swing +3 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.18 (edge -9.4%) — model probability 71.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +15.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 57.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 9 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 71% to see off Cowboys. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 163 ELO points clear, 1637 to 1473. Form leans Roosters' way: 5 from their last 5, against 3 for Cowboys.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 9.0, with the two sides combining for about 46. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 82-12 in 2026 Round 22.

Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Roosters 5, Cowboys 3.

On the ladder it's Roosters 3rd against Cowboys 7th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.18 and Cowboys $4.90, with the line at Roosters -15.5 and the total at 57.5.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 15.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.8 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 7 · Cowboys 3 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 82-12 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLWW · 114 for, 99 against |
| Roosters at home | 9-4 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 3rd · Cowboys 7th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Roosters $1.18 · Cowboys $4.90 |
| Line | Roosters -15.5 · total 57.5 |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 15.2 pens/g · 0.8 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Todd Smith** — 104 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 8W–5L | 62% |
| Cowboys | 6W–7L | 46% |

Avg total: 46.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

When Todd Smith officiates, Roosters have won 8 of 13 games (62%), significantly stronger than Cowboys's 6 from 13 (46%). Games average 46.2 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 40.0pts | Avg Score | 29.0pts |
| 19.6pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Margin | -0.6pts |
| 1866.8m | Run Metres | 1893.6m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 7.6 |
| 307.2 | Tackles | 351.4 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 40.0 |
| Cowboys | R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 W · R10 L | 29.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Cowboys | 12 – 82 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R16 | Roosters | 42 – 8 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R13 | Roosters | 16 – 18 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R10 | Roosters | 6 – 20 | Cowboys |
| 2022 | R22 | Roosters | 32 – 18 | Cowboys |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.56 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 10th there (1.4 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.7 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 13th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Luki, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.78/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.7/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.3/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 2.22/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 8th) | 1.8/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.9/g (def 11th) |
| Right | 2.56/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.3/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.4/g (def 10th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 4 | 8 · 11 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 192m/g | 231m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 89.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 24 | 31 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 2.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 776m/g | 823m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.6/g | 16.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.1/g | 4.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 78.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 7 | 8 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 540m/g | 507m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.2/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 89.6% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.3/g (lg 0.17) +76% · Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.27) +48% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18% · Fullbacks 0.48/g (lg 0.43) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 4/13g | 7/20g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.62 AI 60% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 8 in 9g | 8/10g (0·0·1·0·1·2·0·2·1·1) | 10/16g | 8/19g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.46 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 4 in 6g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/1g | 1/3g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 55' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/1g | 2/3g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 60% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Cody Ramsey | WG | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/4g | 22% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1·0) | 6/20g | 6/19g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·0) | 2/5g | 3/10g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 2 in 9g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/12g | 9/16g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Connor Watson | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 3/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/15g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | RES | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·1·2·0) | 3/9g | 7/14g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 59% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 19% ✗ Not first | 🏉 28' |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | 6 in 9g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·2·1·0·1·1·0) | 2/6g | 2/7g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 31' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 3/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/1g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Zac Laybutt | WG | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/6g | 20% | — | — |
| 6 | Liam Sutton | 5/8 | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/7g | 2/8g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Mikaele | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/12g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/12g | 2/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Matthew Lodge | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/40g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/3g | 2/8g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/10g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 2/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Xavier Kerrisk | RES | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 15 | Griffin Neame | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Robert Derby | RES | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 24% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/15g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1637 · Cowboys 1473 · ELO difference: 163 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1142 | 951 | Roosters +191 |
| Backs | 1118 | 997 | Roosters +121 |
| Halves | 1115 | 953 | Roosters +161 |
| Hooker | 1170 | 980 | Roosters +189 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 71%** — Roosters predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-16 09:30 UTC (latest tip update)