AI Win Probability
Roosters
71%
Cowboys
29%
AI Match Overview
Roosters are clear favourites here at 71%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Cowboys. The model sees Roosters ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 163-point ELO rating advantage (1637 vs 1473). Recent form favours Roosters with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 4 for Cowboys. The margin model predicts Roosters by 9.0 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.18
Edge
-9.4%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +15.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 57.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W W W W | 41.0 |
Cowboys | W W W W L | 29.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.4
Roosters
23.0
Cowboys
Avg Margin
20.6
Roosters
6.4
Cowboys
Run Metres
1823
Roosters
1927
Cowboys
Line Breaks
5.6
Roosters
7.8
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersTodd Smith
104 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Todd Smith officiates, Roosters have won 8 of 13 games (62%) — significantly stronger than Cowboys's 6 from 13 (46%). Games average 46.2 pts — above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.48
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
71%
Roosters predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +9.0
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.