AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
43%
Dolphins
57%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins hold the advantage at 57% win probability, though Rabbitohs are far from out of this at 43%. Rabbitohs are stronger on paper across 7 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Dolphins counter with overall balance which tips the scales. Rabbitohs carry a 48-point ELO rating advantage (1541 vs 1494). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Dolphins. The margin model predicts Dolphins by 4.4 points with a combined total of 47.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.80
Edge
+3.3%
Line / Spread
Dolphins -1.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dolphins 1-12 @2.55
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 54.5 @1.91
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W W L L | 36.4 |
Dolphins | W L L L L | 19.6 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Rabbitohs
26.2
Dolphins
Avg Margin
12.4
Rabbitohs
-6.6
Dolphins
Run Metres
1766
Rabbitohs
1880
Dolphins
Line Breaks
8.0
Rabbitohs
4.6
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsAdam Gee
294 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Rabbitohs have won 15 of 32 games (47%) — significantly stronger than Dolphins's 4 from 13 (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.9 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game — above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more — 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Dolphins get a +0.0 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Rabbitohs's -0.9. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Rabbitohs hold the ELO advantage (1541 vs 1494), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.80).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
57%
Dolphins predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 47 · Line: -4.4
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.