# Rabbitohs v Dolphins — NRL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 10 – 32 Dolphins

_Dolphins outswim Rabbitohs._

Half time: 0 – 20 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 43% / Dolphins 57% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 15 May, 08:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Bayleigh Bentley-Hape (62'), Euan Aitken (67') · Dolphins: Selwyn Cobbo (17' 1st Tipped ⚡), Max Plath (25'), Herbie Farnworth (30' Tipped ⚡), Jack Bostock (56' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (78' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 57% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 43% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.4 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 May 2026, 04:08 pm · Last updated: 15 May 2026, 09:52 pm_

Rabbitohs 10–32 Dolphins in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Dolphins beat Rabbitohs 32-10 at Suncorp Stadium, a scoreline that suggests one side was comprehensively the better outfit. Look at the collision stats and that story gets complicated fast: Rabbitohs actually won post-contact metres 602 to 558, out-broke Dolphins in the tackle 36 to 29, and doubled them on offloads, 14 to 8. By the numbers that measure who was harder to stop with the ball in hand, this was close to even. The gap on the scoreboard came from somewhere else entirely.

That somewhere else was the first half, and it was brutal. Dolphins led 20-0 at the break, and by the time Rabbitohs got on the board the game was effectively decided. Selwyn Cobbo opened the scoring in the 17th minute, Max Plath added a second in the 25th, and Herbie Farnworth made it 0-18 in the 30th. Rabbitohs didn't just fail to score, they barely threatened to. Three tries in 13 minutes against a side that couldn't buy a point set the tone for everything that followed.

Rabbitohs did find some rhythm after the break. Jack Bostock stretched the margin to 0-24 in the 56th minute, but four minutes later Bayleigh Bentley-Hape crossed to get Rabbitohs off the mark, and Euan Aitken followed in the 66th to make it 8-24. For a stretch there it looked like a genuine comeback was building. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow killed that idea in the 77th minute, finishing off the scoring at 10-28 before the final margin settled at 32-10.

The numbers behind the collapse are all about territory and control, not physicality. Dolphins completed at 79% to Rabbitohs' 70%, and the kicking game wasn't remotely close: 712 metres to 358. That's a side that spent long stretches defending its own end while Dolphins dictated field position at will. Add seven line breaks to four and it's obvious where the actual points came from, even with Rabbitohs holding their own in the collisions.

Defensively, effective tackle rates were close (Rabbitohs 87.9% to Dolphins' 85.9%), but Rabbitohs missed only 29 tackles to Dolphins' 36, another number that cuts against the final margin. Penalties were even enough to be a non-factor, five to four.

Alphr's model had Dolphins as 57% favourites and got the winner right, but nothing else about the shape of it. The margin projection of 4.4 points wasn't close to the actual 22, and while the combined total of 42 sat within five points of the 47 predicted, that was more accident than insight given how lopsided the halves were. The under on 54.5 total points landed, and Dolphins covered the 1.5-point line comfortably. Overall the model finished 7 from 17 on markets for this one, a reminder that picking the winner and reading the game correctly aren't the same thing.

Dolphins came in with the better recent form on paper, two wins from five against Rabbitohs' three, but a worse average margin and more tackles made across their sample. None of that explained a 20-0 head start. This was a match won in one brutal half-hour spell, not across four quarters, and the collision numbers suggest Rabbitohs were competitive everywhere except the only column that matters.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| Dolphins | 20 | 12 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 70% | Completion rate | **79%** |
| 1,684 | Run metres | **1,773** |
| **602** | Post-contact metres | 558 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **7** |
| **36** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **14** | Offloads | 8 |
| **87.9%** | Effective tackle % | 85.9% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 36 |
| 15 | Errors | **13** |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| 358 | Kick metres | **712** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 57% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.4 but the actual margin was 22 points. Total score prediction of 47 was close to the actual 42, within 5 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. Dolphins covered the 1.5-point line. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (294 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Dolphins bucked the trend, Rabbitohs historically win 47% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 17' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 0-6 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 25' Try — Max Plath (Dolphins) — 0-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 0-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 56' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 0-24 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 62' Try — Bayleigh Bentley-Hape (Rabbitohs) — 4-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 66' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 8-24 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 10-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.80 (edge +3.3%) — model probability 56.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 4 · Predicted total: 47

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 57%, but Rabbitohs stay live at 43%. The ratings say otherwise: Rabbitohs sit 48 ELO points clear, 1541 to 1494, so the model is backing Dolphins against the ratings gap. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Dolphins.

On paper Rabbitohs shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Dolphins, which says the balance of the matchup carry the most weight. The margin model has Dolphins by 4.4, with the two sides combining for about 47. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 3 wins apiece from the last 6.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Rabbitohs 3, Dolphins 5.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 4th against Dolphins 9th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Rabbitohs $2.05 and Dolphins $1.80, with the line at Rabbitohs +1.5 and the total at 54.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.5 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Rabbitohs 3 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 32-10 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 4th · Dolphins 9th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Rabbitohs $2.05 · Dolphins $1.80 |
| Line | Rabbitohs +1.5 · total 54.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.5 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Adam Gee** — 294 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 15W–17L | 47% |
| Dolphins | 4W–9L | 31% |

Avg total: 42.9 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Rabbitohs have won 15 of 32 games (47%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 4 from 13 (31%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +-0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 37.2pts | Avg Score | 26.0pts |
| 21.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Margin | 2.6pts |
| 1820.8m | Run Metres | 1794.2m |
| 8.0 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 297.8 | Tackles | 359.8 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L · R10 W | 37.2 |
| Dolphins | R5 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W · R10 W | 26.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Rabbitohs lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R1 | Dolphins | 30 – 40 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R17 | Dolphins | 50 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R1 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 14 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R19 | Dolphins | 36 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R7 | Dolphins | 14 – 36 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2.44 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 5th there (1.11 conceded/game). Key man: Mitchell, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (2.11 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 4th there (0.89 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 9 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.89/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.33/g (def 11th) | 1.11/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.22/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.56/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.44/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.89/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.78/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 2.44/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 4th (strong)) | 2.11/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 4 | 1 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 140m/g | 207m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.9/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 37 · 19 | 33 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 710m/g | 870m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.2/g | 19.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.7/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.1% | 84.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 9 · 8 | 4 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 589m/g | 514m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.7/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 91.1% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.26/g (lg 0.22) +18% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.16) +13%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.47/g (lg 0.27) +74% · Hookers 0.19/g (lg 0.14) +36% · Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.43) +19%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 1/3g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 30% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 11 in 8g | 11/10g (0·0·2·0·1·2·1·4·0·1) | 3/3g | 15/17g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.77 AI 78% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 25% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 6 in 8g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 4/4g | 11/16g | 36% | — | — |
| 5 | Edward Kosi | WG | 0 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 2/6g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 13/21g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 2g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 8 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 7/28g | 18% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1·0) | 2/4g | 3/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 52% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/15g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Matthew Dufty | INT | 2 in 4g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/9g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/7g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Adam Elliott | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 6 in 9g | 9/10g (3·1·1·1·0·2·1·0·0·0) | 6/6g | 27/34g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 53% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 78' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 9 in 9g | 10/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·1·3) | 4/13g | 37/79g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 64% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 3 in 2g | 10/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·4·0·2·1) | 1/1g | 10/20g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 22% ✗ Not first | 🏉 56' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 4 in 9g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 4/11g | 25/66g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 30' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 5 in 9g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 4/10g | 31/53g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 47% ✓ Scored | 🏉 17' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/13g | 24/85g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/32g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 4/60g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Max Plath | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/16g | 14% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 7/32g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 3/19g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/5g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Jeremy Marshall-King | INT | 1 in 1g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1) | 3/11g | 4/31g | 24% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/21g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Felise Kaufusi | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/42g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Rabbitohs hold the ELO advantage (1541 vs 1494), but the market favours Dolphins (@1.80). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1541 · Dolphins 1494 · ELO difference: 48 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1058 | 1004 | Rabbitohs +54 |
| Backs | 1004 | 1013 | Dolphins +9 |
| Halves | 1041 | 1016 | Rabbitohs +25 |
| Hooker | 1005 | 968 | Rabbitohs +37 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 57%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 47 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-15 11:52 UTC (latest tip update)