# Panthers v Dragons — NRL Round 11 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 28 – 6 Dragons

_Panthers maul Dragons._

Half time: 12 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 78% / Dragons 22% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 17 May, 06:25 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Thomas Jenkins (12' 1st Tipped 🎯), Thomas Jenkins (36' 1st Tipped 🎯), Isaiah Papali'i (47'), Brian To'o (69' Tipped ⚡), Luke Garner (79') · Dragons: Christian Tuipulotu (60')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 78% | Won |
| Dragons | 22% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 13.2 predicted → 22 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 11 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 May 2026, 04:08 pm · Last updated: 17 May 2026, 09:09 pm_

Panthers 28–6 Dragons in NRL Round 11 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Start with the Dragons, because there's more here than a 22-point beating suggests. They broke more tackles than Panthers, 36 to 33. They offloaded the ball better too, 12 times to 9. Their defence, on paper, held up fine: an effective tackle rate of 90.7% against Panthers' 87.6%. None of it showed up on the scoreboard until it was already too late.

The problem was territory and ball control, the unglamorous stuff that doesn't show up in the highlights package. Panthers ran for 2,042 metres to the Dragons' 1,723, and kicked for 995 metres to St George Illawarra's 788. Completion rate told the same story: Panthers finished at 85%, Dragons at 76%. You can offload and break tackles all day, but if you're not holding the ball or camped in the right part of the field, it doesn't translate to points.

It didn't help that this was a Dragons side carrying five straight losses into the game, up against a Panthers outfit that had won four of its last five. The form line matched the scoreline before a ball was kicked. Panthers came in averaging 26.2 points a game and conceding 20; Dragons were averaging 11.2 for and leaking 39.2 against. Suncorp Stadium just confirmed the trend that had already been running for weeks.

Panthers won 28-6, and did the bulk of the scoring early. Thomas Jenkins opened the account in the 11th minute, then crossed again in the 36th. Penrith led 12-0 at half-time, a lead built almost entirely without reply from St George Illawarra. Isaiah Papali'i stretched it to 16-0 just after the resumption, in the 46th minute, before Christian Tuipulotu finally got the Dragons on the board in the 59th to make it 18-4. Brian To'o crossed in the 68th and Luke Garner added a fifth Panthers try in the 79th, rounding out the 28-6 final margin.

The positional ratings going in help explain why Penrith's dominance looked so orderly rather than lucky. Their forwards rated 1206 to the Dragons' 1036, the backs 1189 to 982, the halves 1194 to 995, and at hooker it was 1257 to 986.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| Dragons | 0 | 6 | 6 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| **2,042** | Run metres | 1,723 |
| **731** | Post-contact metres | 631 |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 9 | Offloads | **12** |
| 87.6% | Effective tackle % | **90.7%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| 10 | Errors | 10 |
| 2 | Penalties conceded | 2 |
| **995** | Kick metres | 788 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 78% probability. The predicted margin of 13.2 was reasonable against the actual 22-point result. Panthers led 12–0 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 22. The model went 7/17 on this match. Dragons covered the 27.5-point line. The 13+ margin band call landed. The under 57.5 total call was correct.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 36' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 46' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 59' Try — Christian Tuipulotu (Dragons) — 18-4 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 68' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 79' Try — Luke Garner (Panthers) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.04 (edge -13.1%) — model probability 78.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +27.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 13+ @ $3.20 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 57.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 78% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 223 ELO points clear, 1723 to 1500. Form leans Panthers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 13.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 28-6 in 2026 Round 11.

Panthers have won 4 straight; Panthers are 11-2 at home this year. Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Panthers 1st against Dragons 17th.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.04 and Dragons $11.00, with the line at Panthers -27.5 and the total at 57.5.

Dragons come in fresher, 120 days between games against 7.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 9 · Dragons 1 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 28-6 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWW · 103 for, 46 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-2 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 1st · Dragons 17th |
| Finals odds | Panthers 100% · Dragons 0% |
| Market | Panthers $1.04 · Dragons $11.00 |
| Line | Panthers -27.5 · total 57.5 |
| Rest gap | Panthers 7d · Dragons 120d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 26.2pts | Avg Score | 11.2pts |
| 20.0pts | Avg Conceded | 39.2pts |
| 6.2pts | Avg Margin | -28.0pts |
| 1849.2m | Run Metres | 1476.6m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 2.8 |
| 359.6 | Tackles | 374.6 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W · R10 W | 26.2 |
| Dragons | R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R10 L | 11.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R27 | Dragons | 20 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R21 | Dragons | 10 – 46 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R13 | Panthers | 10 – 22 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R14 | Panthers | 26 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2022 | R2 | Dragons | 16 – 20 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.1 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.11 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 16 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 15th-ranked left edge attack (0.89 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.7 conceded/game). Key man: Stewart, 2 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.1/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.89/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 2.11/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.89/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 0.8/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 0.7/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.67/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.11/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 3 | 2 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 211m/g | 145m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.2/g | 3.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 36 · 16 | 12 · 38 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 861m/g | 633m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.1/g | 11.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.7/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 74.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 4 | 5 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 529m/g | 530m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.9/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.4% | 91.4% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.22) +50% · Fullbacks 0.6/g (lg 0.43) +40% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.46) +37%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.46) +2% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.14) -7% · Fullbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.43) -21%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 9 in 10g | 9/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·1·3·0·0) | 2/6g | 5/21g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.59 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 16 in 10g | 16/10g (2·2·4·2·2·2·2·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 4/3g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.37 AI 71% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.00 AI 24% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 12' 36' |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 2/7g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 4 in 9g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 2/2g | 2/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.71 AI 35% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 6 in 10g | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·1·0) | 4/5g | 7/15g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.47 AI 46% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 5 in 10g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 49% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 4 in 10g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/9g | 8/20g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/24g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 4/15g | 22% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 12 | Luke Garner | INT | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/13g | 18% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 10g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/24g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Cogger | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 1/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 10g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Izack Tago | 2R | 2 in 10g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 4/12g | 24% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 10/19g | 8/16g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/7g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 26% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 3/18g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 24% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $23.00 AI 14% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 10/12g | 6/14g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 11% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 3/3g | 32% | — | 🏉 60' |
| 6 | Daniel Atkinson | 5/8 | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 7 | Kyle Flanagan | HB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/19g | 4/23g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 0 in 1g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Hamish Stewart | 2R | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/3g | 13% | — | — |
| 13 | Ryan Couchman | LK | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Emre Guler | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Kerr | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 3/27g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Blake Lawrie | RES | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/14g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1723 · Dragons 1500 · ELO difference: 223 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1206 | 1036 | Panthers +170 |
| Backs | 1189 | 982 | Panthers +207 |
| Halves | 1194 | 995 | Panthers +200 |
| Hooker | 1257 | 986 | Panthers +271 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 78%** — Panthers predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-17 11:09 UTC (latest tip update)