NRL | Round 11

alphr.com.au

PEN
Panthers
VS
SGI
Dragons
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • SUNDAY 17 MAY, 6:25 PM

AI Win Probability

78%PanthersFavourite

Panthers

78%

Dragons

22%

AI Match Overview

Panthers are clear favourites here at 78%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Panthers ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 223-point ELO rating advantage (1723 vs 1500). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Panthers by 13.2 points with a combined total of 45.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Panthers to Win @1.04

Edge

-13.1%

Line / Spread

Dragons +27.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Panthers 13+ @3.20

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 57.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Panthers
W
W
W
W
L
30.2
Dragons
L
L
L
L
L
0.0

Avg Conceded

18.4

Panthers

0.0

Dragons

Avg Margin

11.8

Panthers

0.0

Dragons

Run Metres

1875

Panthers

0

Dragons

Line Breaks

6.8

Panthers

0.0

Dragons

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1
Sep 2025PEN 40 - 20 SGI
Aug 2024PEN 46 - 10 SGI
Jun 2024PEN 10 - 22 SGI
Jun 2023PEN 26 - 18 SGI
Mar 2022PEN 20 - 16 SGI
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PEN
1723Overall1500
SGI
ELO difference: +223 in favour of Panthers

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1206Forwards1036
PEN +170
1189Backs982
PEN +207
1194Halves995
PEN +200
1257Hooker986
PEN +271

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PEN
Stat
SGI
4.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
30.2pts
Avg Score
0.0pts
18.4pts
Avg Conceded
0.0pts
11.8pts
Avg Margin
0.0pts
1875.4m
Run Metres
0.0m
6.8
Line Breaks
0.0
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Panthers
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Panthers
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Panthers
4
Halves Control9.0%
Panthers
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Panthers
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Panthers
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Panthers

Model Confidence

78%

Panthers predicted to win by 13 points

Predicted total: 45 · Line: +13.2

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays
Blaize TalagiPanthers
halfFair 2.042+ 15%
$2.25
+4.6% edge
Model
49%
Market
44%
Confidence
49%
Setu TuDragons
backFair 2.512+ 9%
$2.60
+1.4% edge
Model
40%
Market
38%
Confidence
40%
Moses SuliDragons
backFair 4.202+ 3%
$4.10
-0.6% edge
Model
24%
Market
24%
Confidence
24%
Thomas JenkinsPanthers
backFair 1.402+ 35%
$1.37
-1.8% edge
Model
71%
Market
73%
Confidence
71%
Dylan EdwardsPanthers
backFair 1.692+ 23%
$1.59
-3.6% edge
Model
59%
Market
63%
Confidence
59%
Valentine HolmesDragons
backFair 9.392+ 1%
$3.30
-19.7% edge
Model
11%
Market
30%
Confidence
11%
Brian To'oPanthers
backFair 2.192+ 13%
$1.47
-22.4% edge
Model
46%
Market
68%
Confidence
46%
Casey McLeanPanthers
backFair 2.822+ 7%
$1.71
-23.0% edge
Model
35%
Market
58%
Confidence
35%
Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays
Setu TuDragons
backFair 3.872+ 9%
$15.00
+19.2% edge
Model
26%
Market
7%
Confidence
26%
Moses SuliDragons
backFair 7.242+ 3%
$23.00
+9.5% edge
Model
14%
Market
4%
Confidence
14%
Thomas JenkinsPanthers
backFair 4.192+ 35%
$6.00
+7.2% edge
Model
24%
Market
17%
Confidence
24%
Blaize TalagiPanthers
halfFair 7.732+ 15%
$13.00
+5.2% edge
Model
13%
Market
8%
Confidence
13%
Dylan EdwardsPanthers
backFair 5.802+ 23%
$8.00
+4.7% edge
Model
17%
Market
13%
Confidence
17%