NRL | Round 11

Storm hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Eels are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Storm ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 31-point ELO rating advantage (1439 vs 1408). Recent form favours Eels with 1 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 5.9 points with a combined total of 48.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Storm to Win @1.37

Edge

-8.6%

Line / Spread

Eels +8.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Margin Band

Storm 1-12 @2.55

Edge

+0.0%

Total Points

Under 54.5 @1.91

Edge

+0.0%

Form & History

Team	Last 5	Avg Pts
Eels	W L L L L	20.0
Storm	L L L L L	12.4

Avg Conceded

32.6

Eels

38.0

Storm

Avg Margin

-12.6

Eels

-25.6

Storm

Run Metres

1515

Eels

1371

Storm

Line Breaks

3.8

Eels

2.8

Storm

Referee Indicator

Favours Storm

Peter Gough

182 career games · since 2012

AI Analysis

Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)

Eels

10W – 19L

34%

Storm

12W – 5L

71%

When Peter Gough officiates, Storm have won 12 of 17 games (71%) — significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 29 (34%).

Avg Total

44.2 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Leans home

Penalty & Discipline

Pen / Game

13.1

Sin Bins / Gm

0.43

SB Away %

60%

Avg Penalties Per Game

vs Home Teams6.1

vs Away Teams7

Penalty Advantage Under This Ref

Positive = opponent penalised more than your team

Eels

-0.3

Storm

+0.2

Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game — above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more — 6.1 against home vs 7 against away.

H2H History (Last 5)Storm lead 5-0

Mar 2026PAR 4 - 52 MEL

Aug 2025PAR 10 - 16 MEL

Mar 2025PAR 18 - 56 MEL

Aug 2024PAR 14 - 32 MEL

May 2024PAR 16 - 48 MEL

Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

PAR

1408Overall1439

MEL

ELO difference: -31 in favour of Storm

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

895Forwards956

MEL +61

925Backs925

Even

914Halves939

MEL +25

931Hooker913

PAR +17

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

PAR

Stat

MEL

1.0

Wins (Last 5)

0.0

20.0pts

Avg Score

12.4pts

32.6pts

Avg Conceded

38.0pts

-12.6pts

Avg Margin

-25.6pts

1514.8m

Run Metres

1371.2m

3.8

Line Breaks

2.8

300.0

Tackles

300.0

12.0

Errors

12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

ELO Difference14.0%

Storm

Forward Pack12.0%

Storm

Backline Quality10.0%

Storm

Halves Control9.0%

Storm

Recent Win Rate9.0%

Eels

Referee Tendency7.0%

Eels

Venue Advantage7.0%

Eels

Model Confidence

61%

Storm predicted to win by 6 points

Predicted total: 48 · Line: -5.9

Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays

Josh Addo-CarrEels

backFair 1.292+ 44%

$1.52

+11.4% edge

Model

77%

Market

66%

Confidence

77%

Jordan SamraniEels

backFair 2.512+ 9%

$3.15

+8.1% edge

Model

40%

Market

32%

Confidence

40%

Joash PapaliiEels

backFair 2.562+ 9%

$3.05

+6.2% edge

Model

39%

Market

33%

Confidence

39%

Will WarbrickStorm

backFair 1.402+ 35%

$1.51

+5.0% edge

Model

71%

Market

66%

Confidence

71%

Nick MeaneyStorm

backFair 2.372+ 10%

$2.55

+2.9% edge

Model

42%

Market

39%

Confidence

42%

Brian KellyEels

backFair 1.922+ 17%

$2.02

+2.6% edge

Model

52%

Market

50%

Confidence

52%

Sean RussellEels

backFair 2.782+ 7%

$2.85

+0.8% edge

Model

36%

Market

35%

Confidence

36%

Moses LeoStorm

backFair 2.062+ 14%

$1.85

-5.5% edge

Model

49%

Market

54%

Confidence

49%

Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.

5 Plays

Josh Addo-CarrEels

backFair 4.492+ 44%

$8.50

+10.5% edge

Model

22%

Market

12%

Confidence

22%

Will WarbrickStorm

backFair 6.162+ 35%

$8.00

+3.7% edge

Model

16%

Market

13%

Confidence

16%

Brian KellyEels

backFair 9.012+ 17%

$12.00

+2.8% edge

Model

11%

Market

Confidence

11%

Jordan SamraniEels

backFair 13.052+ 9%

$17.00

+1.8% edge

Model

Market

Confidence

Joash PapaliiEels

backFair 13.442+ 9%

$15.00

+0.8% edge

Model

Market

Confidence