# Storm v Wests Tigers — NRL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 44 – 16 Wests Tigers

_Storm put Wests Tigers to the sword._

Half time: 26 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 73% / Wests Tigers 27% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Sun, 10 May, 02:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Sualauvi Faalogo (3' 1st), Will Warbrick (6' Tipped ⚡), Cameron Munster (9'), Jahrome Hughes (12' Tipped ⚡), Harry Grant (34'), Will Warbrick (54' Tipped ⚡), Cameron Munster (71'), Ativalu Lisati (77') · Wests Tigers: Taylan May (25' Tipped ⚡), Luke Laulilii (64' Tipped ⚡), Taylan May (67' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 73% | Won |
| Wests Tigers | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.1 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Wests Tigers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 May 2026, 12:26 pm · Last updated: 10 May 2026, 05:33 pm_

Storm 44–16 Wests Tigers in NRL Round 10 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Forty seven tackle busts to 33, and Storm turned that collision count into a 44-16 demolition of Wests Tigers at AAMI Park. That single number, more than any other in the stat sheet, is where this game was won.

The opening quarter set the tone. Sualauvi Faalogo scored inside two minutes, Will Warbrick crossed at the five minute mark, Cameron Munster added one at eight and Jahrome Hughes made it four tries in twelve minutes for an 18-0 lead. Taylan May pulled one back for Wests Tigers on 25 minutes to make it 20-4, but Harry Grant restored the margin at 33 and Storm went to the sheds up 26-4.

The second half opened with more of the same. Warbrick's second try on 53 minutes stretched it to 30-4. Then Wests Tigers found some rhythm: Luke Laulilii scored on 64 minutes and Taylan May grabbed his second two minutes later, dragging the margin back to 32-16. It was the closest the contest got. Munster's second try on 70 minutes and Ativalu Lisati's effort on 77 pushed the final scoreline out to 44-16.

Here's the thing about the stat sheet: Wests Tigers were the tidier side with the ball. They completed at 90% to Storm's 83%, made just 6 errors to Storm's 9 and offloaded 21 times to Storm's 12. Possession was dead even at 50-50. On those numbers alone you'd back the Wests Tigers to control this game.

It didn't work out that way. Storm broke the line 7 times to 5, ran for 1,713 metres to 1,606 and made 509 post-contact metres to 475. The tackle bust count, 47 to 33, tells the real story: Storm kept getting go-forward after contact, and Wests Tigers's defence couldn't cope, missing 47 tackles to Storm's 33. Storm were also more disciplined, conceding just 2 penalties to Wests Tigers's 6, while Storm's kicking game found 484 metres to 417.

The result reads oddly against the pre-match numbers. Wests Tigers went in rated stronger in every positional category: forwards 975 to 850, backs 994 to 902, halves 999 to 888, hooker 961 to 879. Form lines favoured them too. Wests Tigers had three wins from their last five, averaging 25.4 points scored and conceding 25.8, while Storm had lost five straight, averaging 12.4 points scored and leaking 38. On paper this had upset written on it. On the day, Storm's go-forward game turned a side that graded out better everywhere on the depth chart into one that spent the afternoon missing tackles and chasing the ball.

Alphr's model backed Storm to win at 73% and got the result right.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 26 | 18 | 44 |
| Wests Tigers | 4 | 12 | 16 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 83% | Completion rate | **90%** |
| **1,713** | Run metres | 1,606 |
| **509** | Post-contact metres | 475 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 5 |
| **47** | Tackle breaks | 33 |
| 12 | Offloads | **21** |
| 83.1% | Effective tackle % | **84.6%** |
| **33** | Missed tackles | 47 |
| 9 | Errors | **6** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **484** | Kick metres | 417 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 73% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. The game's 60 points came in 15 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 5/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (293 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 17 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Storm's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Storm have a 67% win rate under this referee. Storm's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 5' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 8' Try — Cameron Munster (Storm) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 12' Try — Jahrome Hughes (Storm) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 20-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 33' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 24-4 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 53' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 30-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 64' Try — Luke Laulilii (Wests Tigers) — 32-8 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 66' Try — Taylan May (Wests Tigers) — 32-14 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 70' Try — Cameron Munster (Storm) — 36-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Ativalu Lisati (Storm) — 42-16 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.62 (edge +14.2%) — model probability 73.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Wests Tigers +4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Storm by 2 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 73% to see off Wests Tigers. The ratings say otherwise: Wests Tigers sit 86 ELO points clear, 1474 to 1387, so the model is backing Storm against the ratings gap. Form leans Wests Tigers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 0 for Storm.

On paper Wests Tigers shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Storm, which says Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Storm by 2.1, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Storm to win, not to win big.

Storm have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 44-16 in 2026 Round 10.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Wests Tigers are 3-9 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Storm 16th against Wests Tigers 5th.

The market has Storm favourites, Storm $1.62 and Wests Tigers $2.31, with the line at Storm -4.5 and the total at 55.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 9 · Wests Tigers 1 |
| Last meeting | Storm 44-16 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | LWLL · 67 for, 110 against |
| Wests Tigers away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 16th · Wests Tigers 5th |
| Finals odds | Storm 0% · Wests Tigers 0% |
| Market | Storm $1.62 · Wests Tigers $2.31 |
| Line | Storm -4.5 · total 55.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.2 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Adam Gee** — 293 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 29W–14L | 67% |
| Wests Tigers | 18W–21L | 46% |

Avg total: 42.8 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Storm have won 29 of 43 games (67%), significantly stronger than Wests Tigers's 18 from 39 (46%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Storm get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Wests Tigers's -0.9. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 12.4pts | Avg Score | 25.4pts |
| 38.0pts | Avg Conceded | 25.8pts |
| -25.6pts | Avg Margin | -0.4pts |
| 1371.2m | Run Metres | 1827.4m |
| 2.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 |
| 374.6 | Tackles | 350.4 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 13.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L | 12.4 |
| Wests Tigers | R5 W · R6 W · R7 L · R8 W · R9 L | 25.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R10 | Storm | 64 – 0 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R18 | Wests Tigers | 28 – 40 | Storm |
| 2023 | R16 | Wests Tigers | 6 – 28 | Storm |
| 2023 | R4 | Storm | 24 – 12 | Wests Tigers |
| 2022 | R1 | Wests Tigers | 16 – 26 | Storm |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 7th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 8th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Warbrick, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Wests Tigers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 16th there (2.11 conceded/game). Key man: Turuva, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.67/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 12th) | 0.88/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.78/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 2.13/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 2.11/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.63/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 4 | 9 · 1 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 231m/g | 256m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.7/g | 7.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.5% | 86.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 29 | 20 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 663m/g | 732m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.4/g | 15.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.2/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.9% | 79% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Wests Tigers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 12 | 6 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 475m/g | 579m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 13/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92.7% | 93% |

**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.43) +42% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.41/g (lg 1.26) +12% · Centres 0.68/g (lg 0.73) -7% · 2nd Rows 0.38/g (lg 0.46) -17%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | 11 in 9g | 12/10g (1·2·3·1·1·1·0·1·1·1) | 2/2g | 8/13g | 59% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | 7 in 9g | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·4·0·0·1·0·0) | 6/3g | 15/29g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.60 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 17% ✗ Not first | 🏉 6' 54' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/22g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 7/9g | 19/48g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 35% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Hugo Peel | WG | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 34/105g | 8% | — | 🏉 9' 71' |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/6g | 31/72g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.85 AI 13% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 19/51g | 30% | — | 🏉 34' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 7/50g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/24g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/8g | 16% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 4/50g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | RES | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Joe Chan | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/19g | 12% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/7g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Clarke | INT | 1 in 9g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/4g | 11% | — | — |

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Heath Mason | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·3·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/2g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.70 AI 60% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 17% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Patrick Herbert | CE | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/1g | 18% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Taylan May | CE | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 66% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | 🏉 25' 67' |
| 5 | Luke Laulilii | WG | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.78 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 64' |
| 6 | Jarome Luai | 5/8 | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 7 | Jock Madden | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Tristan Hope | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Sione Fainu | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Latu Fainu | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 15 | Bunty Afoa | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Alex Seyfarth | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/2g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Royce Hunt | INT | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Wests Tigers hold the ELO advantage (1474 vs 1387), but the market favours Storm (@1.62). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1387 · Wests Tigers 1474 · ELO difference: 86 in favour of Wests Tigers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Wests Tigers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 850 | 975 | Wests Tigers +125 |
| Backs | 902 | 994 | Wests Tigers +93 |
| Halves | 888 | 999 | Wests Tigers +112 |
| Hooker | 879 | 961 | Wests Tigers +83 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Storm predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-10 07:33 UTC (latest tip update)