Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 3.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. Sea Eagles led 16–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 6/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 51.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (365 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 6 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sea Eagles bucked the trend — Broncos historically win 60% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile — home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams — a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
66%
Broncos
34%
AI Match Overview
Sea Eagles are clear favourites here at 66%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Broncos. Broncos are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Sea Eagles counter with Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Broncos carry a 34-point ELO rating advantage (1564 vs 1531). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Broncos. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 3.1 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.70
Winner ✓
Edge
+10.1%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 51.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | R5W R6W R7W R8W R9L older → newer | 33.4 |
Broncos | R5W R6L R7W R8W R9L | 26.8 |
Avg Conceded
15.6
Sea Eagles
23.4
Broncos
Avg Margin
17.8
Sea Eagles
3.4
Broncos
Run Metres
1827
Sea Eagles
1515
Broncos
Line Breaks
6.0
Sea Eagles
4.6
Broncos
Referee Indicator
Favours BroncosGerard Sutton
365 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
Broncos hold a 11-point edge: 35W–23L (60%) vs Sea Eagles's 22W–23L (49%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1564 vs 1531), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.70).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
66%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.1
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.