# Sea Eagles v Broncos — NRL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 32 – 4 Broncos

_Sea Eagles swoop on Broncos._

Half time: 16 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 66% / Broncos 34% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sat, 09 May, 07:35 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Joey Walsh (3' 1st), Lehi Hopoate (18' Tipped ⚡), Siosiua Taukeiaho (45'), Tolutau Koula (59' Tipped ⚡), Reuben Garrick (79' Tipped ⚡) · Broncos: Antonio Verhoeven (6')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 66% | Won |
| Broncos | 34% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 3.1 predicted → 28 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Manly Sea Eagles vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 May 2026, 12:26 pm · Last updated: 9 May 2026, 09:26 pm_

Sea Eagles 32–4 Broncos in NRL Round 10 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Broncos actually had the better of it early. Antonio Verhoeven crossed in the sixth minute to make it 6-4 and for a stretch of about fifteen minutes they looked like the team in the contest. That's about where the good news for Brisbane ends.

Josiah Karapani found the sin bin in the 12th minute, and whatever rhythm the Broncos had went with him. Sea Eagles hit back through Lehi Hopoate in the 17th to go 10-4 up, and Broncos never got another sniff at the lead. By half-time it was 16-4. By full-time it was 32-4. This wasn't a second-half collapse so much as a slow bleed that turned into a flood.

The stat sheet explains exactly why the fightback never came. Broncos missed 40 tackles to Sea Eagles' 13, a gap that dwarfs everything else in the box score. You can survive a rough error count, and 20 to 13 isn't flattering, but you can't survive that on top of a defence leaking like that. Sea Eagles broke the line seven times to one and racked up 40 tackle breaks to 13, which is really just the same problem described twice: repeated line breaks, repeated metres after contact, defenders getting shrugged off.

Even with the ball in hand, Broncos couldn't do much with it. A completion rate of 55% against Sea Eagles' 77% meant they kept handing back territory and possession, and with only 39% of the ball for the night there wasn't much chance to build pressure. Run metres finished 1,069 to 1,987, less than half of what the home side put together, and the kicking game told the same story: 365 metres to 518.

None of that takes anything off Sea Eagles' effort. Brandon Wakeham spent time in the sin bin in the 31st minute, meaning Sea Eagles played a stretch of the first half a man down and still led at the break by 12. Whatever that cost them clearly didn't slow things down, because they added tries through Siosiua Taukeiaho in the 45th, Tolutau Koula in the 58th and Reuben Garrick right at the death in the 79th. Joey Walsh's opener in the third minute, the one that put Sea Eagles ahead before Broncos even got on the board, ended up as just the first of five different try scorers for the home side.

Going in, the ratings had this a lot closer than it played out. Sea Eagles' forwards rated 1062 to 1051, backs 1057 to 1035, and the halves were basically a coin flip at 1054 to 1053. Broncos actually held the edge at hooker, 1054 to 1027. The form lines pointed the other way though: Sea Eagles were averaging 33.4 points scored and just 15.6 conceded across their last five games, while Broncos were leaking 23.4 a game over the same stretch. On the night, form beat the ratings sheet comfortably.

Alphr's model backed Sea Eagles at 66% and got the winner right, but had the margin at 3.1 points. It finished 28 points off the actual result. Sea Eagles covered the line, the under on 51.5 came in, and the model went 6 from 17 on the match overall.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 16 | 16 | 32 |
| Broncos | 4 | 0 | 4 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **61%** | Possession | 39% |
| **77%** | Completion rate | 55% |
| **1,987** | Run metres | 1,069 |
| **686** | Post-contact metres | 415 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 1 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 13 |
| **9** | Offloads | 5 |
| **92.1%** | Effective tackle % | 87.4% |
| **13** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| **13** | Errors | 20 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| **518** | Kick metres | 365 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sea Eagles to win at 66% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.1 but the actual margin was 28 points. Sea Eagles led 16–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 28. The model went 6/17 on this match. Sea Eagles covered the 2.5-point line. The under 51.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (365 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 6 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Sea Eagles bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 60% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Sea Eagles's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Joey Walsh (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 6' Try — Antonio Verhoeven (Broncos) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 12' Sin Bin — Josiah Karapani (Broncos) — 6-4 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 17' Try — Lehi Hopoate (Sea Eagles) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 31' Sin Bin — Brandon Wakeham (Sea Eagles) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 45' Try — Siosiua Taukeiaho (Sea Eagles) — 20-4 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 58' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 26-4 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 79' Try — Reuben Garrick (Sea Eagles) — 30-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.70 (edge +10.1%) — model probability 66.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 51.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 3 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sea Eagles here: 66% to see off Broncos. The ratings say otherwise: Broncos sit 34 ELO points clear, 1564 to 1531, so the model is backing Sea Eagles against the ratings gap. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Broncos.

Sea Eagles own the matchup too, leading 3 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 3.1, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sea Eagles to win, not to win big.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Broncos have leaked 136 in their last four. Broncos have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Sea Eagles 7th against Broncos 9th.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Sea Eagles $1.70 and Broncos $2.15, with the line at Sea Eagles -2.5 and the total at 51.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 15.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.7 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 5 · Broncos 5 |
| Last meeting | Sea Eagles 32-4 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | LWLW · 94 for, 136 against |
| Broncos away | 6-6 this season |
| Ladder | Sea Eagles 7th · Broncos 9th |
| Finals odds | Sea Eagles 0% · Broncos 0% |
| Market | Sea Eagles $1.70 · Broncos $2.15 |
| Line | Sea Eagles -2.5 · total 51.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 15.3 pens/g · 0.7 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Gerard Sutton** — 365 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 22W–23L | 49% |
| Broncos | 35W–23L | 60% |

Avg total: 42.0 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Broncos hold a 11-point edge: 35W–23L (60%) vs Sea Eagles's 22W–23L (49%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Sea Eagles get a +0.7 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Broncos's -0.5. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 33.4pts | Avg Score | 26.8pts |
| 15.6pts | Avg Conceded | 23.4pts |
| 17.8pts | Avg Margin | 3.4pts |
| 1827.0m | Run Metres | 1515.0m |
| 6.0 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 304.8 | Tackles | 344.2 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R5 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L | 33.4 |
| Broncos | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L | 26.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Broncos lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R13 | Sea Eagles | 34 – 6 | Broncos |
| 2024 | R11 | Sea Eagles | 12 – 13 | Broncos |
| 2023 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 6 – 32 | Broncos |
| 2022 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 0 – 38 | Broncos |
| 2021 | R10 | Sea Eagles | 50 – 6 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the middle: NRL's 4th-ranked middle attack (2.13 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 8th there (1.78 conceded/game). Key man: Brooks, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the middle: NRL's 7th-ranked middle attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 6th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Walsh, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.75/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.13/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 6th (strong)) | 2/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.78/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 11th) · concedes 0.78/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 6 · 3 | 5 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 159m/g | 131m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 2.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.8% | 86.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 23 · 17 | 20 · 20 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 738m/g | 630m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 12.9/g | 14.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 75.4% | 78% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 5 | 7 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 548m/g | 563m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.5/g | 8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 89.9% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.13) +69% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.9/g (lg 0.73) +23%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.13) +8% · Wingers 1.31/g (lg 1.27) +3%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tolutau Koula | FB | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 24/39g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 34% ✓ Scored | 🏉 59' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/2g | 23/42g | 38% | — | — |
| 3 | Clayton Faulalo | CE | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/1g | 5/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 1/7g | 41/62g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 79' |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | 7 in 8g | 9/10g (0·2·0·0·0·2·1·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 11/22g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.67 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 23% ✗ Not first | 🏉 18' |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 8/33g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 2/51g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Wakeham | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Ethan Bullemor | PR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 6/41g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 20/43g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 29% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 10/38g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 18/100g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jake Simpkin | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/21g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Nathan Brown | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 2/24g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Jackson Shereb | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/14g | 1/17g | 4% | — | 🏉 45' |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Reece Walsh | FB | 5 in 6g | 9/10g (2·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1·1) | 1/3g | 1/2g | 64% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Josiah Karapani | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jesse Arthars | CE | 2 in 4g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 3 in 9g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 38% | 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Antonio Verhoeven | WG | 0 in 2g | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 6 | Ezra Mam | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 1/1g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Thomas Duffy | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Ben Talty | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Cory Paix | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Jack Gosiewski | PR | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | 2R | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Patrick Carrigan | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Preston Riki | PR | 0 in 1g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Va'a Semu | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Aublix Tawha | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Broncos hold the ELO advantage (1564 vs 1531), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.70). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1531 · Broncos 1564 · ELO difference: 34 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1062 | 1051 | Sea Eagles +12 |
| Backs | 1057 | 1035 | Sea Eagles +21 |
| Halves | 1054 | 1053 | Sea Eagles +1 |
| Hooker | 1027 | 1054 | Broncos +27 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 66%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-09 11:26 UTC (latest tip update)