Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 81% probability. The margin model was sharp — predicting Roosters by 12.9 vs the actual margin of 16 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 40 — within 5 points. Roosters led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 7/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 55.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Roosters's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Roosters have a 47% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in — a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
81%
Titans
19%
AI Match Overview
Roosters are clear favourites here at 81%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Roosters ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 285-point ELO rating advantage (1627 vs 1341). Recent form favours Roosters with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Titans. The margin model predicts Roosters by 12.9 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.13
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.4%
Line / Spread
Titans +18.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 55.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | R4W R6W R7W R8W R9W older → newer | 41.0 |
Titans | R4W R5L R6W R7L R9L | 23.6 |
Avg Conceded
20.4
Roosters
21.2
Titans
Avg Margin
20.6
Roosters
2.4
Titans
Run Metres
1823
Roosters
1785
Titans
Line Breaks
5.6
Roosters
5.0
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersPeter Gough
181 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Roosters have won 7 of 15 games (47%) — significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 23 (30%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game — above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more — 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Titans get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Roosters's -0.2.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
81%
Roosters predicted to win by 13 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +12.9
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.