# Roosters v Titans — NRL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 28 – 12 Titans

_Roosters crow over Titans._

Half time: 10 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 81% / Titans 19% · Polytec Stadium, Gosford · Fri, 08 May, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Robert Toia (30' Tipped ⚡), James Tedesco (36' Tipped ⚡), Robert Toia (48' Tipped ⚡), Daniel Tupou (61' Tipped ⚡), Hugo Savala (67' Tipped ⚡), James Tedesco (76' Tipped ⚡) · Titans: Chris Randall (16' 1st), Keano Kini (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 81% | Won |
| Titans | 19% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 12.9 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 May 2026, 12:26 pm · Last updated: 8 May 2026, 08:01 pm_

Roosters 28–12 Titans in NRL Round 10 at Polytec Stadium, Gosford. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve errors to seven. That's the number that sat behind everything Roosters did at Polytec Stadium, and it's why they walked out 28-12 winners over the Titans.

The Titans actually struck first. Chris Randall got over in the 16th minute and the visitors led 4-0, a scoreline nobody watching the ratings would have picked given Roosters went in as 1627 to 1341 favourites with an expected margin of 12.9. Roosters steadied through Robert Toia in the 30th minute and James Tedesco six minutes later, and they went to the sheds up 10-6. Handy, not commanding.

Then the changing room clearly had a word about ball security. Roosters put the game away with tries in the 48th, 60th, 66th and 75th minutes, Toia grabbing his second, followed by Daniel Tupou, Hugo Savala and Tedesco's second. Keano Kini got the Titans a late one back at 77 minutes, but by then it was 26-6 and academic. Final margin: 16 points, close enough to the model's 12.9 pick that nobody's throwing the spreadsheet out.

The completion numbers tell you why the second half went the way it did. Roosters finished at 86%, Titans at 78%, and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect: 7 errors for Roosters against 12 for the Titans. You can't build pressure when you're handing the ball back that often, and the Titans spent large stretches doing just that.

Where Roosters really made their money was in contact. They ran for 2,311 metres to the Titans' 1,804, and 815 of those were post-contact, a sign forwards were finishing carries rather than getting stood up. Thirty-seven tackle breaks and 15 offloads back that up. The pre-match forward pack rating had Roosters at 1107 to the Titans' 822, and on this evidence that gap was real, not just a number on a sheet.

The Titans weren't without answers. They actually won the line-break count 6 to 4 and controlled the boot, kicking for 762 metres to the Roosters' 649, territory they never quite turned into scoreboard pressure. Their issue was defence: 37 missed tackles against 29, and against a Roosters backline rated 1152 to 875 pre-match, those gaps were always going to get found. Six penalties conceded by Roosters to the Titans' two barely mattered when the ball spent that much time in Titans territory anyway.

Form lines had flagged this gap too. Roosters arrived on a five-game winning streak averaging 41 points a game, the Titans limping in at two wins from five with an average margin of just 2.4. Nothing here contradicted that read.

Alphr's model called the winner at 81% and landed the margin within striking distance, 12.9 projected against 16 actual, with the total of 45 not far off the final 40. Titans covered the 18.5-point line and the under on 55.5 came in too. A clean tick for the model on the shape of the game, even if the Titans found more resistance in patches than the raw scoreline suggests.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 10 | 18 | 28 |
| Titans | 6 | 6 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **86%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **2,311** | Run metres | 1,804 |
| **815** | Post-contact metres | 623 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| **15** | Offloads | 11 |
| **88.9%** | Effective tackle % | 87.5% |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **7** | Errors | 12 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **2** |
| 649 | Kick metres | **762** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 81% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Roosters by 12.9 vs the actual margin of 16 points. Total score prediction of 45 was close to the actual 40, within 5 points. Roosters led 10–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 16. The model went 7/17 on this match. Titans covered the 18.5-point line. The under 55.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (181 career games). The combined score of 40 points was 4 points below Peter Gough's career average of 44. Roosters's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Roosters have a 47% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 16' Try — Chris Randall (Titans) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 30' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 36' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 8-6 · win-prob swing +18 pts
- 48' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 60' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 18-6 · win-prob swing +10 pts
- 66' Try — Hugo Savala (Roosters) — 22-6 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 75' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 77' Try — Keano Kini (Titans) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.13 (edge -3.4%) — model probability 80.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +18.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 55.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 13 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 81% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 285 ELO points clear, 1627 to 1341. Form leans Roosters' way: 5 from their last 5, against 2 for Titans.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 7 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 12.9, with the two sides combining for about 45. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 28-12 in 2026 Round 10.

Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Roosters 5, Titans 3.

On the ladder it's Roosters 3rd against Titans 14th.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.13 and Titans $6.05, with the line at Roosters -18.5 and the total at 55.5.

Peter Gough has the whistle: 16.3 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 9 · Titans 1 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 28-12 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLLW · 90 for, 105 against |
| Roosters at home | 9-4 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 3rd · Titans 14th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Titans 0% |
| Market | Roosters $1.13 · Titans $6.05 |
| Line | Roosters -18.5 · total 55.5 |
| Referee | Peter Gough · 16.3 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Peter Gough** — 181 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 7W–8L | 47% |
| Titans | 7W–16L | 30% |

Avg total: 44.2 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Leans home

When Peter Gough officiates, Roosters have won 7 of 15 games (47%), significantly stronger than Titans's 7 from 23 (30%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Titans get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Roosters's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 41.0pts | Avg Score | 23.6pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Conceded | 21.2pts |
| 20.6pts | Avg Margin | 2.4pts |
| 1823.4m | Run Metres | 1785.4m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 293.0 | Tackles | 337.0 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 12.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R4 W · R6 W · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 41.0 |
| Titans | R4 W · R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R9 L | 23.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R4 | Roosters | 12 – 30 | Titans |
| 2024 | R25 | Titans | 22 – 48 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R21 | Titans | 18 – 36 | Roosters |
| 2022 | R9 | Roosters | 44 – 16 | Titans |
| 2021 | R26 | Roosters | 25 – 24 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 12th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Tupou, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 8th-ranked left edge attack (1.13 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 15th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Hau, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.13/g (att 8th) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.25/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 2/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1.13/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 2.5/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 4 | 5 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 172m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.7% | 88.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 23 | 14 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 2.8/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 745m/g | 716m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.9/g | 15.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.5% | 78.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 8th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 6 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 522m/g | 493m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.1/g | 8.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90.2% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Fullbacks 0.71/g (lg 0.43) +65% · Props 0.23/g (lg 0.17) +35% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.27) +48% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18% · Fullbacks 0.47/g (lg 0.43) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Polytec Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 13/15g | 1/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.54 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' 76' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·2·0·2·1) | 8/12g | 2/1g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.48 AI 75% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 3 | Hugo Savala | CE | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 21% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 45% ✓ Scored | 🏉 67' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 55% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 30' 48' |
| 5 | Cody Ramsey | WG | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 3/20g | 0/0g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·2·1) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/13g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 10 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (1·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 7/7g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 4g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 2 | Jensen Taumoepeau | WG | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 32% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | AJ Brimson | CE | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·1) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 20% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Jayden Campbell | 5/8 | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·2·0·0·2·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Zane Harrison | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Klese Haas | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Oliver Pascoe | HK | 0 in 5g | 0/5g (0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cooper Bai | LK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Moeaki Fotuaika | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Patston | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Arama Hau | INT | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 21% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1627 · Titans 1341 · ELO difference: 285 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1107 | 822 | Roosters +285 |
| Backs | 1152 | 875 | Roosters +277 |
| Halves | 1156 | 877 | Roosters +279 |
| Hooker | 1110 | 827 | Roosters +282 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Roosters |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 81%** — Roosters predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-08 10:01 UTC (latest tip update)