Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 4.2 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 48 — within 2 points. The model went 5/17 on this match. The under 50.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (384 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 4 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Raiders
27%
Panthers
73%
AI Match Overview
Panthers are clear favourites here at 73%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Raiders. The model sees Panthers ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Panthers carry a 255-point ELO rating advantage (1712 vs 1456). Recent form favours Panthers with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Panthers by 4.2 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Panthers to Win @1.30
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.2%
Line / Spread
Raiders +9.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Panthers 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 50.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Raiders | R5L R6W R7W R8L R9W older → newer | 23.2 |
Panthers | R5W R6L R7W R8W R9W | 30.2 |
Avg Conceded
26.6
Raiders
18.4
Panthers
Avg Margin
-3.4
Raiders
11.8
Panthers
Run Metres
1750
Raiders
1875
Panthers
Line Breaks
5.0
Raiders
6.8
Panthers
Referee Indicator
BalancedAshley Klein
384 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein — Raiders 24W–27L (47%) and Panthers 28W–28L (50%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.5 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game — well below average. He lets the game flow.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
73%
Panthers predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -4.2
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.