# Raiders v Panthers — NRL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 18 – 30 Panthers

_Panthers claw past Raiders._

Half time: 12 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 27% / Panthers 73% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sun, 10 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Ethan Sanders (9'), Sebastian Kris (23'), Kaeo Weekes (49' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Blaize Talagi (5' 1st), Blaize Talagi (17' 1st), Casey McLean (33' Tipped ⚡), Nathan Cleary (52'), Billy Phillips (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 73% | Won |
| Raiders | 27% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 12 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 May 2026, 12:26 pm · Last updated: 10 May 2026, 05:53 pm_

Raiders 18–30 Panthers in NRL Round 10 at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Panthers beat the Raiders 30-18 at GIO Stadium, and on the surface that reads like a comfortable win built on discipline and class. Except the penalty count says something stranger. Canberra gave away nothing all night, zero penalties conceded, while Penrith coughed up six. A side with a clean sheet on discipline still lost by 12. That tells you the game wasn't decided by ill-discipline at all. It was decided by what happened when both teams actually had the ball.

The scoreboard stayed tight for a long stretch. Blaize Talagi opened it inside four minutes, Ethan Sanders hit back for the Raiders at the 9th, Talagi struck again at 17', Sebastian Kris levelled it up again at 23'. Casey McLean's try on the half hour mark put Penrith up 16-12, and it stayed an 18-12 contest at the break. Kaeo Weekes got the Raiders back within two just after halftime, making it 16-18, and for a moment this looked like it could go either way. Then Nathan Cleary crossed at 51' and Billy Phillips followed at 57', and that six-minute burst turned a nail-biter into a 10-point buffer that Canberra never threatened again.

The stat sheet backs up who did the heavier lifting with the ball. Panthers ran for 1,827 metres to Canberra's 1,637, and turned that into six line breaks against the Raiders' four. Completion rate favoured Penrith too, 82% to 80%, with fewer errors, 8 to 9. Possession was almost dead even, 51-49 in Canberra's favour, which just underlines that this wasn't a game the Raiders lost through lack of the ball. They had it plenty. They just didn't do enough with it.

Some of the finer numbers were closer than the final margin suggests. Post-contact metres were nearly level, 592 to 586 in Canberra's favour, and tackle breaks were basically a coin flip, 33 to 34. Offloads were tied at 10 apiece. Defensively neither side was flash: Canberra missed 34 tackles at 88.5% effective, Penrith missed 33 at 89.0%. Canberra actually out-kicked Penrith for territory, 807 metres to 735. None of that screams a 12-point gap. The difference came down to who converted opportunity into points, and Penrith simply did that better.

The pre-match numbers had this pegged as one-sided long before kickoff.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 12 | 6 | 18 |
| Panthers | 18 | 12 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **82%** |
| 1,637 | Run metres | **1,827** |
| **592** | Post-contact metres | 586 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **34** |
| 10 | Offloads | 10 |
| 88.5% | Effective tackle % | **89.0%** |
| 34 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| 9 | Errors | **8** |
| **0** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| **807** | Kick metres | 735 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 73% probability. The predicted margin of 4.2 was reasonable against the actual 12-point result. Total score prediction of 46 was close to the actual 48, within 2 points. The model went 5/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 50.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (384 career games). The combined score of 48 points was 4 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 9' Try — Ethan Sanders (Raiders) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 17' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Sebastian Kris (Raiders) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 32' Try — Casey McLean (Panthers) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 48' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 16-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 51' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 18-22 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 57' Try — Billy Phillips (Panthers) — 18-28 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.30 (edge +0.2%) — model probability 73.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 50.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 4 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 73% to see off Raiders. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 255 ELO points clear, 1712 to 1456. Form leans Panthers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Raiders.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Panthers by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 46. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Panthers to win, not to win big.

Panthers have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 42-18 in 2026 Round 22.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Panthers have won 4 straight. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Raiders 13th against Panthers 1st.

The market has Panthers favourites, Raiders $3.55 and Panthers $1.30, with the line at Raiders +9.5 and the total at 50.5.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 13.8 penalties a game (whistle-happy), home sides win 60% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 3 · Panthers 7 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 42-18 |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders at home | 5-7 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWW · 103 for, 46 against |
| Panthers away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Raiders 13th · Panthers 1st |
| Finals odds | Raiders 0% · Panthers 100% |
| Market | Raiders $3.55 · Panthers $1.30 |
| Line | Raiders +9.5 · total 50.5 |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 13.8 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 384 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 24W–27L | 47% |
| Panthers | 28W–28L | 50% |

Avg total: 43.5 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Raiders 24W–27L (47%) and Panthers 28W–28L (50%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Raiders get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Panthers's -0.2.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 23.2pts | Avg Score | 30.2pts |
| 26.6pts | Avg Conceded | 18.4pts |
| -3.4pts | Avg Margin | 11.8pts |
| 1750.0m | Run Metres | 1875.4m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 6.8 |
| 365.0 | Tackles | 344.8 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | R5 L · R6 W · R7 W · R8 L · R9 W | 23.2 |
| Panthers | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 W | 30.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Panthers | 42 – 18 | Raiders |
| 2025 | R25 | Panthers | 16 – 20 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R25 | Raiders | 22 – 18 | Panthers |
| 2023 | R5 | Raiders | 12 – 53 | Panthers |
| 2022 | R21 | Raiders | 6 – 26 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the right edge: NRL's 8th-ranked right edge attack (1.33 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.67 conceded/game). Key man: Tamale, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.22 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 12th there (1.44 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.89/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.44/g (def 12th) | 2.22/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.78/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.22/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) | 2.44/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.89/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.33/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) | 0.89/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 9 | 8 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 186m/g | 213m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.3% | 88.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 10th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 18 · 25 | 35 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 802m/g | 859m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.1/g | 21.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.5% | 78.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 4 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.8/g |
| Run Metres | 503m/g | 532m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.4/g | 7.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.8% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.48/g (lg 0.46) +4% · Hookers 0.13/g (lg 0.13) +0% · Fullbacks 0.33/g (lg 0.43) -23%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.73) +34% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.13) +15%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·2·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 13/28g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 7/11g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 21/54g | 26% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 4 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 2 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/5g | 19/52g | 24% | — | — |
| 5 | Jed Stuart | WG | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 3/12g | 15% | — | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 11/25g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 8% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 1 in 9g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/6g | 5/49g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/61g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 10/98g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/8g | 25/65g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Simi Sasagi | 2R | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·2) | 1/4g | 5/22g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 39% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 15% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 1/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 2g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/13g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Daine Laurie | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/36g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/27g | 2% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·1·0·2·0·1·1·1·3·0) | 1/8g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.87 AI 76% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 16 in 9g | 16/10g (0·2·2·4·2·2·2·2·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.43 AI 86% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 24% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Paul Alamoti | CE | 1 in 9g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 0/1g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 44% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 6 in 9g | 6/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·2·1) | 1/6g | 0/3g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.61 AI 63% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 5' 17' |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 3 in 9g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/12g | 2/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 52' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Freddy Lussick | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/14g | 2/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Luke Garner | 2R | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Cole | RES | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 17 | Izack Tago | INT | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/5g | 2/3g | 24% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1456 · Panthers 1712 · ELO difference: 255 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 960 | 1180 | Panthers +220 |
| Backs | 919 | 1251 | Panthers +332 |
| Halves | 925 | 1197 | Panthers +272 |
| Hooker | 929 | 1240 | Panthers +312 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Panthers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Raiders |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 73%** — Panthers predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-10 07:53 UTC (latest tip update)