Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 48 — within 4 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 54.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
60%
Sharks
40%
AI Match Overview
Rabbitohs hold the advantage at 60% win probability, though Sharks are far from out of this at 40%. Sharks are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Rabbitohs counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Sharks carry a 57-point ELO rating advantage (1554 vs 1497). The margin model predicts Rabbitohs by 4.5 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @1.66
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.8%
Line / Spread
Rabbitohs -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Rabbitohs 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 54.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | R5W R6L R7W R8W R9L older → newer | 36.4 |
Sharks | R4W R5W R6L R8L R9W | 35.6 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Rabbitohs
26.8
Sharks
Avg Margin
12.4
Rabbitohs
8.8
Sharks
Run Metres
1766
Rabbitohs
1721
Sharks
Line Breaks
8.0
Rabbitohs
6.4
Sharks
ELO–Market Disagreement
Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1554 vs 1497), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.66).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
60%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +4.5
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.