# Rabbitohs v Sharks — NRL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 36 – 12 Sharks

_Rabbitohs burrow past Sharks._

Half time: 18 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 60% / Sharks 40% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 09 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Alex Johnston (25' 1st Tipped 🎯), Euan Aitken (31'), Alex Johnston (35' 1st Tipped 🎯), Alex Johnston (45' 1st Tipped 🎯), Cameron Murray (68'), Campbell Graham (79') · Sharks: KL Iro (72' Tipped ⚡), Mawene Hiroti (74' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 60% | Won |
| Sharks | 40% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 May 2026, 12:26 pm · Last updated: 9 May 2026, 07:22 pm_

Rabbitohs 36–12 Sharks in NRL Round 10 at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Sharks arrived with the better numbers on paper. Forwards rated at 1035 against the Rabbitohs' 1000, backs at 1043 to 973, halves at 1068 to 992. Recent form backed that up too, Cronulla had won three of their last five, same as South Sydney, and were scoring at a healthy clip. On paper this looked like a genuine contest.

For long stretches of the stat sheet, it played out that way. Cronulla busted 35 tackles to South Sydney's 26, offloaded the ball 12 times to just 2, and tackled at 93.0% compared to the home side's 85.6%. By most of the usual measures of go-forward and physicality, this was a Sharks performance.

None of it showed up on the scoreboard. Rabbitohs won 36-12, and led 18-0 at half-time, which tells you plenty about where this game was actually decided.

The problem for Cronulla was simple: they couldn't hold onto the ball when it mattered. Eleven errors to the Rabbitohs' six, and eight penalties conceded to three, meant all that tackle-breaking and offloading kept getting undone by a mistake or a whistle. Souths completed at 88%, Cronulla at 80%. In a game with this much go-forward from both sides, that gap in discipline turned promising ball into nothing.

Rabbitohs did the simple things well and let the scoreboard take care of the rest. Alex Johnston opened the scoring in the 25th minute and kept going, finishing with a hat-trick. Euan Aitken crossed in the 31st to make it 12-0, and Johnston's third in the 34th had Souths out to 18-0 by the break. Cameron Murray added another in the 67th to push it to 28-0, by which point Cronulla's underlying numbers were academic.

The Sharks did find some late points, KL Iro crossing in the 72nd minute and Mawene Hiroti four minutes later, but two tries in the last quarter against a 28-point deficit was never going to be enough. Campbell Graham's try for the Rabbitohs in the 79th put the finishing touch on it, and the final margin landed at 24 points, well clear of anything Cronulla's second-half rally threatened.

Field position and ball use explain plenty of the gap. Rabbitohs kicked for 901 metres to the Sharks' 677, ran for 1,700 metres against 1,582, and held 53% of possession. Missed tackles went the other way, 35 to 26 in Cronulla's favour, but that leaked defence barely mattered when Souths were controlling where the ball spent most of its time. Post-contact metres were close, 486 to 491, a reminder Cronulla's forwards were competitive around the ruck even as the scoreboard ran away from them.

Alphr's model had Rabbitohs as 60% favourites and got the winner right, though the margin call of 4.5 points undersold it badly against an actual gap of 24. The total score prediction of 44 held up well against the final 48. Rabbitohs covered the 2.5-point line, and the under on 54.5 landed too. On a night when the underdog's underlying numbers looked competitive almost everywhere, ball security and discipline decided the contest well before full time.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 18 | 18 | 36 |
| Sharks | 0 | 12 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **88%** | Completion rate | 80% |
| **1,700** | Run metres | 1,582 |
| 486 | Post-contact metres | **491** |
| **6** | Line breaks | 3 |
| 26 | Tackle breaks | **35** |
| 2 | Offloads | **12** |
| 85.6% | Effective tackle % | **93.0%** |
| 35 | Missed tackles | **26** |
| **6** | Errors | 11 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **901** | Kick metres | 677 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 60% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 48, within 4 points. The model went 7/17 on this match. Rabbitohs covered the 2.5-point line. The under 54.5 total call was correct.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 25' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 6-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 31' Try — Euan Aitken (Rabbitohs) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 34' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 18-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 45' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 22-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 67' Try — Cameron Murray (Rabbitohs) — 28-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 72' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 30-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 74' Try — Mawene Hiroti (Sharks) — 30-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 79' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 34-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.66 (edge +2.8%) — model probability 60.2% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 54.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 5 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Rabbitohs are the call at 60%, but Sharks stay live at 40%. The ratings say otherwise: Sharks sit 57 ELO points clear, 1554 to 1497, so the model is backing Rabbitohs against the ratings gap.

On paper Sharks shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Rabbitohs, which says Recent Win Rate and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 44. Lean Rabbitohs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Sharks have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 32-16 in 2026 Round 22.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 4th against Sharks 8th.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Rabbitohs $1.66 and Sharks $2.23, with the line at Rabbitohs -2.5 and the total at 54.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 3 · Sharks 7 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 32-16 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks away | 6-7 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 4th · Sharks 8th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.66 · Sharks $2.23 |
| Line | Rabbitohs -2.5 · total 54.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 36.4pts | Avg Score | 35.6pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 26.8pts |
| 12.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 1766.0m | Run Metres | 1721.4m |
| 8.0 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 291.2 | Tackles | 320.6 |
| 9.8 | Errors | 11.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R5 W · R6 L · R7 W · R8 W · R9 L | 36.4 |
| Sharks | R4 W · R5 W · R6 L · R8 L · R9 W | 35.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R22 | Sharks | 32 – 16 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R21 | Rabbitohs | 12 – 14 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R3 | Sharks | 27 – 12 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R22 | Sharks | 20 – 6 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R6 | Rabbitohs | 22 – 34 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.63 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 14th there (1.63 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 12th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Iro, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.63/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 12th) | 1.75/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.63/g (def 5th (strong)) | 2.13/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 2.63/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 4 | 8 · 8 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 3.5/g |
| Run Metres | 141m/g | 199m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 1.8/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.2% | 89.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 33 · 17 | 22 · 23 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 705m/g | 742m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.4/g | 18.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.8/g | 3.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 78.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 8 | 10 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 601m/g | 445m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.9/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.5% | 88.7% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.1) +60% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.13) +15% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.73) -5%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.48/g (lg 0.27) +78% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.13) +54% · Fullbacks 0.52/g (lg 0.43) +21%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/4g | 6/14g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 11 in 8g | 12/10g (1·0·1·2·1·1·1·1·2·2) | 4/12g | 91/92g | 66% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.37 AI 84% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $6.50 AI 20% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 25' 35' 45' |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 5/7g | 25/56g | 32% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 5 | Edward Kosi | WG | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (1·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/1g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·2) | 5/12g | 34/92g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | 0 in 1g | 1/7g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 11/49g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 1/23g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Euan Aitken | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/17g | 5/19g | 14% | — | 🏉 31' |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·3·1) | 0/4g | 5/22g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 16/68g | 16% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 14 | Matthew Dufty | INT | 2 in 3g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 4/5g | 2/12g | 28% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/9g | 7% | — | — |
| 17 | Tevita Tatola | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 5/64g | 6% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 3/6g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Mawene Hiroti | WG | 1 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/4g | 0/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 26% ✓ Scored | 🏉 74' |
| 3 | Siosifa Talakai | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 0/6g | 1/12g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 38% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 8 in 8g | 10/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·3·3) | 2/3g | 0/4g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 77% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 21% ✗ Not first | 🏉 72' |
| 5 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 1/4g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/9g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 1/12g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/10g | 2/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 1/7g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 5 in 6g | 6/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·3) | 3/8g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/29g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jesse Colquhoun | INT | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Billy Burns | INT | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/1g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1554 vs 1497), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@1.66). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1497 · Sharks 1554 · ELO difference: 57 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1000 | 1035 | Sharks +34 |
| Backs | 973 | 1043 | Sharks +70 |
| Halves | 992 | 1068 | Sharks +77 |
| Hooker | 984 | 1031 | Sharks +47 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 60%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-09 09:22 UTC (latest tip update)