Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 54 — within 6 points. The model went 5/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (103 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 8 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dragons
33%
Knights
67%
AI Match Overview
Knights are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. Dragons are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Knights counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Dragons carry a 65-point ELO rating advantage (1500 vs 1435). Recent form favours Knights with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Dragons. The margin model predicts Knights by 6.6 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @1.35
Winner ✓
Edge
-3.6%
Line / Spread
Dragons +9.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Knights 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 52.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dragons | R4L R5L R6L R7L R8L older → newer | 12.0 |
Knights | R5W R6L R7L R8L R9W | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
34.8
Dragons
34.8
Knights
Avg Margin
-22.8
Dragons
-8.4
Knights
Run Metres
1517
Dragons
1482
Knights
Line Breaks
3.0
Dragons
5.0
Knights
Referee Indicator
BalancedTodd Smith
103 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith — Dragons 2W–10L (17%) and Knights 1W–6L (14%). Games average 46.1 pts — above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Knights).
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.49
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Knights get a +1.4 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Dragons's -0.6.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1500 vs 1435), but the market favours Knights (@1.35).
The model sides with the market — other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Knights predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: -6.6
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.