# Dragons v Knights — NRL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dragons 10 – 44 Knights

_Knights run riot over Dragons._

Half time: 0 – 32 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dragons 33% / Knights 67% · WIN Stadium, Wollongong · Sat, 09 May, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dragons: Hamish Stewart (43'), Setu Tu (65' Tipped ⚡) · Knights: Greg Marzhew (8' 1st Tipped 🎯), Dominic Young (17' Tipped ⚡), Greg Marzhew (24' 1st Tipped 🎯), Bradman Best (30'), Dylan Lucas (32'), Dominic Young (37' Tipped ⚡), Greg Marzhew (54' 1st Tipped 🎯), Greg Marzhew (57' 1st Tipped 🎯), Greg Marzhew (76' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 67% | Won |
| Dragons | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.6 predicted → 34 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**St George Illawarra Dragons vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 May 2026, 12:26 pm · Last updated: 9 May 2026, 04:51 pm_

Dragons 10–44 Knights in NRL Round 10 at WIN Stadium, Wollongong. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty-nine minutes was all it took. Greg Marzhew scored in the 7th, Dominic Young in the 16th, Marzhew again in the 23rd, Bradman Best in the 29th, then Dylan Lucas and Young again before the half was out. Five tries in under half an hour, and the Dragons hadn't laid a hand on the board. By the break it was 32-0, and the second half was just paperwork.

Final score: Knights 44, Dragons 10, at WIN Stadium. Nobody watching the first half needed the model to tell them where this was headed.

The line break count says everything you need to know. Knights ran in 14, the Dragons managed none. Zero. When a team can't break a line all night, it doesn't matter how the rest of the sheet looks, points are going to come from somewhere else. And they did, five different names on the Knights' scoresheet across the game, with Marzhew alone crossing five times.

The Dragons weren't blown off the park in every column. They actually won the offload count, 12 to 9, and kept the ball for 47% of it, not a disaster by NRL standards. But 35 missed tackles against 21 tells the real story. The Knights had 552 post-contact metres and 35 tackle breaks to work with, and a defence leaking that badly was never going to hold a backline that sharp. Once Hamish Stewart got one back in the 43rd minute, the margin actually looked worse by the finish than it had at the break, the Knights bolting on three more through Marzhew twice and Setu Tu's reply barely denting it.

Pre-match, the ratings had the Dragons ahead in every positional battle that matters, forwards 977 to 910, backs 1016 to 955, halves 1021 to 920. On paper it should have been closer than 34 points. The form line told a different story though, Knights arriving off two wins in their last five against the Dragons' none, and that gap showed up exactly where it usually does, in composure when the game was still there to be won.

Alphr's model backed the Knights at 67% and got the winner right, no argument there. The margin read was where it came unstuck, tipping Knights by 6.6 when the actual gap was 34. The total was the one number that held up, picking 48 against an actual 54, within six. Call it 5 from 17 on the night, wins and misses, all of it laid out plain.

The Dragons will look at the completion rate, 79% to 80%, and think it wasn't that far off. It wasn't, on paper. But rugby league doesn't hand out points for tidiness, and a defence that misses 35 tackles while conceding 14 line breaks is always going to be chasing a scoreboard that got away in the first half. The Knights didn't need the second forty to be pretty. They'd already done the job by the 36th minute.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 0 | 10 | 10 |
| Knights | 32 | 12 | 44 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dragons | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 47% | Possession | **53%** |
| 79% | Completion rate | **80%** |
| 1,416 | Run metres | **2,052** |
| 509 | Post-contact metres | **552** |
| 0 | Line breaks | **14** |
| 21 | Tackle breaks | **35** |
| **12** | Offloads | 9 |
| 87.8% | Effective tackle % | **89.4%** |
| 35 | Missed tackles | **21** |
| 13 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **601** | Kick metres | 589 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 67% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 6.6 but the actual margin was 34 points. Total score prediction of 48 was close to the actual 54, within 6 points. The model went 5/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (103 career games). The combined score of 54 points was 8 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 16' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 0-14 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 29' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 0-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 32' Try — Dylan Lucas (Knights) — 0-26 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 36' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 0-32 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 43' Try — Hamish Stewart (Dragons) — 4-32 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 53' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 4-36 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 57' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 4-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 64' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 8-40 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 75' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 10-44 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $1.35 (edge -3.6%) — model probability 66.9% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Knights 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 52.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 7 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Knights here: 67% to see off Dragons. The ratings say otherwise: Dragons sit 65 ELO points clear, 1500 to 1435, so the model is backing Knights against the ratings gap. Form leans Knights' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Dragons.

On paper Dragons shade it, ahead on 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Knights, which says Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. The margin model has Knights by 6.6, with the two sides combining for about 48. Knights to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 22-20 in 2026 Round 16.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 3-9 at home this year.

On the ladder it's Dragons 17th against Knights 10th.

The market has Knights favourites, Dragons $3.23 and Knights $1.35, with the line at Dragons +9.5 and the total at 52.5.

Dragons come in fresher, 120 days between games against 6.

Todd Smith has the whistle: 16.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Dragons 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 22-20 |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons at home | 3-9 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLWW · 88 for, 110 against |
| Knights away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Dragons 17th · Knights 10th |
| Finals odds | Dragons 0% · Knights 100% |
| Market | Dragons $3.23 · Knights $1.35 |
| Line | Dragons +9.5 · total 52.5 |
| Rest gap | Dragons 120d · Knights 6d |
| Referee | Todd Smith · 16.0 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Todd Smith** — 103 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | 2W–10L | 17% |
| Knights | 1W–6L | 14% |

Avg total: 46.1 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Dragons 2W–10L (17%) and Knights 1W–6L (14%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Knights).

Knights get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Dragons's -0.1.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dragons | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 12.0pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 34.8pts | Avg Conceded | 34.8pts |
| -22.8pts | Avg Margin | -8.4pts |
| 1517.2m | Run Metres | 1481.8m |
| 3.0 | Line Breaks | 5.0 |
| 375.2 | Tackles | 349.0 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dragons | R4 L · R5 L · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L | 12.0 |
| Knights | R5 W · R6 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W | 26.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Knights | 22 – 20 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R13 | Dragons | 20 – 6 | Knights |
| 2024 | R5 | Knights | 30 – 10 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R27 | Dragons | 12 – 32 | Knights |
| 2022 | R6 | Dragons | 21 – 16 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dragons' best path is the middle: NRL's 17th-ranked middle attack (0.75 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.78 conceded/game). Key man: Cook, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 16th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 8 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dragons | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.88/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.5/g (def 16th (weak)) | 1.67/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.11/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Middle | 0.75/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.78/g (att 10th) · concedes 2.78/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.11/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 8th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dragons | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 10th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 7 | 5 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 144m/g | 197m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.9% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dragons | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 30 | 25 · 25 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.9/g |
| Run Metres | 656m/g | 669m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 11.4/g | 20.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.8/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.1% | 75.6% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dragons | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 7 | 8 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 548m/g | 489m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.6/g | 7.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 89.5% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.17) +29% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%
**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.34/g (lg 0.22) +55% · Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.43) +42% · 2nd Rows 0.63/g (lg 0.46) +37%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at WIN Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 3/9g | 26% | — | — |
| 2 | Setu Tu | WG | 3 in 6g | 3/6g (1·0·0·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 1/2g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 50% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 18% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (2·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 15/15g | 6/7g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Mathew Feagai | WG | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/2g | 7/22g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.97 AI 15% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Kade Reed | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 6/11g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/16g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | no games | 3/9g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 2/2g | 33% | — | — |
| 12 | Ryan Couchman | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 0% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 8% | — | 🏉 43' |
| 14 | Josh Kerr | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Loko Jnr Pasifiki Tonga | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Lawrie | RES | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/38g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Jacob Halangahu | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 1/3g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 17% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 9 in 9g | 9/10g (0·1·2·0·3·2·1·0·0·0) | 4/3g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.58 AI 51% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 17' 37' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 9g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/18g | 1/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 28% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 8 in 8g | 10/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·3) | 2/3g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.55 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 22% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 8' 24' 54' 57' 76' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (0·2·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 32% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/8g | 0/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 2 in 9g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·2) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 26% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 0 in 9g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Sandon Smith | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Tyson Frizell | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/30g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Francis Manuleleua | RES | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1500 vs 1435), but the market favours Knights (@1.35). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dragons 1500 · Knights 1435 · ELO difference: 65 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dragons | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 977 | 910 | Dragons +67 |
| Backs | 1016 | 955 | Dragons +61 |
| Halves | 1021 | 920 | Dragons +101 |
| Hooker | 964 | 939 | Dragons +26 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dragons |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Dragons |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dragons |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Knights predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-09 06:51 UTC (latest tip update)