Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 32 points. Dolphins led 14–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 4/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (316 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in — a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
69%
Bulldogs
31%
AI Match Overview
Dolphins are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Bulldogs. The model sees Dolphins ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Dolphins carry a 56-point ELO rating advantage (1457 vs 1401). The margin model predicts Dolphins by 4.5 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Dolphins to Win @1.50
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.6%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dolphins 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 49.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | R4L R5L R7L R8L R9W older → newer | 19.6 |
Bulldogs | R5L R6W R7L R8L R9L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
26.2
Dolphins
29.2
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-6.6
Dolphins
-9.2
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1880
Dolphins
1654
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
4.6
Dolphins
3.8
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
BalancedGrant Atkins
316 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins — Dolphins 5W–6L (45%) and Bulldogs 16W–17L (48%).
Avg Total
43.1 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game — above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more — 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Bulldogs get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's +0.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Dolphins predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: +4.5
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.