# Dolphins v Bulldogs — NRL Round 10 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 44 – 12 Bulldogs

_Dolphins run riot over Bulldogs._

Half time: 14 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 69% / Bulldogs 31% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Thu, 07 May, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Jamayne Isaako (20' Tipped ⚡), Selwyn Cobbo (31' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (38' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (45' Tipped ⚡), Jeremy Marshall-King (56'), Jack Bostock (60' Tipped ⚡), Kodi Nikorima (66'), Selwyn Cobbo (77' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Jaeman Salmon (8' 1st), Stephen Crichton (25')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 69% | Won |
| Bulldogs | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.5 predicted → 32 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 10 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 6 May 2026, 12:26 pm · Last updated: 7 May 2026, 09:44 pm_

Dolphins 44–12 Bulldogs in NRL Round 10 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Eight minutes in, it was the Bulldogs putting the pressure on, Jaeman Salmon crossing to make it 0-4 and Suncorp Stadium bracing for an upset. That lead didn't last. Isaako hit back at the 20th, Crichton restored the margin for the Bulldogs at 25, Cobbo levelled it up again by the half hour, and by the 37th minute Isaako had his second to tie it at 12-all. Dolphins went to the break in front 14-12, a game still very much live on the scoreboard, and nothing in the first forty suggested what was coming.

The second half is where it stopped being a contest. Isaako completed his hat-trick, then Marshall-King, Bostock and Nikorima all crossed in a run that stretched from the 56th minute through to the 65th, before Cobbo added his second late to push it out to 42-12. A Preston sin bin at 36 hurt the Bulldogs' chances of holding on, and a Finefeuiaki sin bin for the Dolphins in the 79th barely rated as a footnote by then. Final score: 44-12. Thirty-two points is not a margin, it's a statement.

The stat sheet backs up exactly what the eye saw. Dolphins ran for 1,706 metres to the Bulldogs' 1,385, broke the line nine times to three, and racked up 40 tackle breaks against 18. Completion rate told the same story: 88% for Dolphins against a leaky 75% for the Bulldogs, with just 5 errors compared to 10.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 14 | 30 | 44 |
| Bulldogs | 12 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **88%** | Completion rate | 75% |
| **1,706** | Run metres | 1,385 |
| **530** | Post-contact metres | 508 |
| **9** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **40** | Tackle breaks | 18 |
| 5 | Offloads | **6** |
| **91.6%** | Effective tackle % | 88.2% |
| **18** | Missed tackles | 40 |
| **5** | Errors | 10 |
| 10 | Penalties conceded | **8** |
| **595** | Kick metres | 373 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Dolphins to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.5 but the actual margin was 32 points. Dolphins led 14–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 32. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (316 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Jaeman Salmon (Bulldogs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 20' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 4-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 4-12 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 31' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 36' Sin Bin — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 37' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 12-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 44' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 56' Try — Jeremy Marshall-King (Dolphins) — 24-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 60' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 30-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 65' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 36-12 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 77' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 42-12 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 79' Sin Bin — Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins) — 42-12 · win-prob swing -0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.50 (edge +5.6%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +6.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 49.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 5 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Dolphins here: 69% to see off Bulldogs. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 56 ELO points clear, 1457 to 1401.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 4.5, with the two sides combining for about 46. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Dolphins to win, not to win big.

The recent history is dead even: 2 wins apiece from the last 4.

Dolphins have won 8 straight. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Dolphins 11th against Bulldogs 12th.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.50 and Bulldogs $2.59, with the line at Dolphins -6.5 and the total at 49.5.

Grant Atkins has the whistle: 16.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.5 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 4) | Dolphins 2 · Bulldogs 2 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 44-12 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 110 for, 64 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-4 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Dolphins 11th · Bulldogs 12th |
| Finals odds | Dolphins 100% · Bulldogs 0% |
| Market | Dolphins $1.50 · Bulldogs $2.59 |
| Line | Dolphins -6.5 · total 49.5 |
| Referee | Grant Atkins · 16.0 pens/g · 0.5 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 316 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 5W–6L | 45% |
| Bulldogs | 16W–17L | 48% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Dolphins 5W–6L (45%) and Bulldogs 16W–17L (48%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Bulldogs get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 26.2pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| -6.6pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 1880.4m | Run Metres | 1653.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 3.8 |
| 372.6 | Tackles | 348.4 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R4 L · R5 L · R7 L · R8 L · R9 W | 19.6 |
| Bulldogs | R5 L · R6 W · R7 L · R8 L · R9 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 3) — Bulldogs lead 2-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R12 | Bulldogs | 8 – 44 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R24 | Bulldogs | 30 – 10 | Dolphins |
| 2023 | R22 | Bulldogs | 23 – 22 | Dolphins |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the right edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked right edge attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 6th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Isaako, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the middle: NRL's 12th-ranked middle attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 9th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Galvin, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 9th) | 0.75/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 0.75/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) | 1.75/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.88/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 1.88/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 0 · 5 | 7 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 209m/g | 251m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.1/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 87.4% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 24 | 8 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 870m/g | 811m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 19.3/g | 13.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 1.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.1% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 6 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 534m/g | 461m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8/g | 6.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 1.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.46) +2% · Locks 0.1/g (lg 0.1) +0% · Wingers 1.25/g (lg 1.26) -1%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 6 in 8g | 10/10g (1·3·1·1·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 27/33g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.57 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $7.50 AI 18% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 6 in 8g | 7/10g (0·1·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·1) | 8/9g | 34/78g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 61% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' 38' 45' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 2 in 1g | 10/10g (1·0·0·1·0·1·1·4·0·2) | 1/2g | 9/19g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 79% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 27% ✗ Not first | 🏉 60' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/7g | 25/65g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.05 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 29/52g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.80 AI 41% ✓ Scored | 🏉 31' 77' |
| 6 | Bradley Schneider | RES | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/31g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/59g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Max Plath | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/15g | 14% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 7/31g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 3/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Ray Stone | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/30g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Tom Gilbert | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 2/41g | 6% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 8/11g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Jonathan Sua | WG | 1 in 4g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 30% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 1 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/2g | 2/7g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 6/17g | 18% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 5 | Enari Tuala | WG | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 5/8g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 1/4g | 30% | — | — |
| 8 | Samuel Hughes | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Sitili Tupouniua | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 1/13g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 3 in 8g | 4/10g (0·1·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 5/6g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 33% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 8% | — | 🏉 8' |
| 14 | Alekolasimi Jones | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/1g (0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Sean O'Sullivan | 5/8 | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/17g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Curran | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 2/10g | 14% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1457 · Bulldogs 1401 · ELO difference: 56 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 989 | 862 | Dolphins +127 |
| Backs | 968 | 878 | Dolphins +90 |
| Halves | 922 | 870 | Dolphins +51 |
| Hooker | 978 | 863 | Dolphins +115 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-05-07 11:44 UTC (latest tip update)