Win Probability
AI Game Review
Eels defied the model's 76% prediction for Cowboys — a notable upset. The margin model missed here — predicting 11.6 but the actual margin was 3 points. The game's 63 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 44. Eels trailed 12–10 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 30–33. The model went 5/17 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (64 career games). The combined score of 63 points was 17 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 46. Eels's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend — Eels have a 64% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Cowboys
76%
Eels
24%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys are clear favourites here at 76%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Cowboys ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Cowboys carry a 127-point ELO rating advantage (1504 vs 1377). Recent form favours Cowboys with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Eels. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 11.6 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.34
Lost ✗
Edge
+4.7%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -10.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Cowboys 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 55.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Cowboys | R5W R6W R7L R8W R9W older → newer | 29.4 |
Eels | R5L R6L R7W R8L R9L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
23.0
Cowboys
32.6
Eels
Avg Margin
6.4
Cowboys
-12.6
Eels
Run Metres
1927
Cowboys
1515
Eels
Line Breaks
7.8
Cowboys
3.8
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours EelsLiam Kennedy
64 career games · since 2012
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Eels have won 7 of 11 games (64%) — significantly stronger than Cowboys's 3 from 10 (30%). Games average 46.3 pts — above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.3 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.3
Sin Bins / Gm
0.41
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more — 5.2 against home vs 6 against away. Eels get a +1.2 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Cowboys's -0.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
76%
Cowboys predicted to win by 12 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +11.6
Anytime Try Scorer
Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.
First Try Scorer
Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups and opposition defence profile.