Win Probability
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 61% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 60 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 41. Warriors led 22–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 1/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (46 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 10 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 63% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 61% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
39%
Roosters
61%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 71-point ELO rating advantage (1544 vs 1472). Recent form favours Roosters with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.8 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.51
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.4%
Line / Spread
Warriors +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 41.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | R2025-R24W R2025-R25W R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2025-R28L older → newer | 20.4 |
Roosters | R2025-R24W R2025-R25L R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2025-R28L | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
21.0
Warriors
15.6
Roosters
Avg Margin
-0.6
Warriors
10.0
Roosters
Run Metres
1743
Warriors
1532
Roosters
Line Breaks
4.4
Warriors
5.4
Roosters
Referee Indicator
Favours WarriorsWyatt Raymond
46 career games · since 2024
Win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 5 of 8 games (63%), significantly stronger than Roosters's 1 from 3 (33%). Games average 49.9 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (3 games for Roosters).
Avg Total
49.9 pts
Home Win %
61%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
9.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
50%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Warriors get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Roosters's -1.3.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Roosters predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -2.8
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