Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Warriors
39%
Roosters
61%
AI Match Overview
Roosters hold the advantage at 61% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 39%. The model sees Roosters ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Roosters carry a 71-point ELO rating advantage (1544 vs 1472). Recent form favours Roosters with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Warriors. The margin model predicts Roosters by 2.8 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.51
Lost ✗
Edge
-2.4%
Line / Spread
Warriors +5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Roosters 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 41.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | WWLLL | 21.6 |
Roosters | WWWWL | 36.4 |
Avg Conceded
22.6
Warriors
14.0
Roosters
Avg Margin
-1.0
Warriors
22.4
Roosters
Run Metres
1659
Warriors
1588
Roosters
Line Breaks
3.8
Warriors
6.4
Roosters
Each team's win rate when Wyatt Raymond refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Both sides have a similar record when Wyatt Raymond officiates — Warriors 3W–3L (50%) and Roosters 1W–1L (50%) across all their respective games. No significant bias detected. His games average 50.0 pts — above the league norm — suggesting he lets the game flow, which can benefit attacking sides. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Warriors an additional edge at home. Note: Based on a limited sample of 2 games for Roosters — interpret with caution.
Avg Total
50.0 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
61%
Roosters predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -2.8
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