# Warriors v Roosters — NRL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 42 – 18 Roosters

_Warriors conquer Roosters._

Half time: 22 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 39% / Roosters 61% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Fri, 06 Mar, 06:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Tanah Boyd (11' 1st), Adam Pompey (23'), Kurt Capewell (28'), Chanel Harris-Tavita (34'), Leka Halasima (47'), Chanel Harris-Tavita (76'), Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (79') · Roosters: James Tedesco (15'), Billy Smith (51'), Angus Crichton (55')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 61% | Lost |
| Warriors | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 2.8 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Mar 2026, 08:19 am · Last updated: 6 Mar 2026, 08:05 pm_

Warriors 42–18 Roosters in NRL Round 1 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Warriors put 42 on the Roosters at Go Media Stadium, a 24-point beating that had the game up 22-6 by half-time. Have a look at the tackle count though, because the gap tells a different story to the final margin. Roosters busted 47 tackles to the Warriors' 32 and made 87.1% of their attempted tackles against the home side's 79%. On paper that's a Roosters side that hit harder and defended better. On the scoreboard it didn't matter at all.

What actually decided it was what happened with the ball. Warriors ran for 1,727 metres to 1,501, added 635 post-contact metres, and kept hold of it with just 8 errors against 13 from the Roosters. Completion rate tells the same story: 81% to 71%. When you're finishing your sets and the other side isn't, you get more shots at the line, and Warriors took theirs, breaking through seven times to six.

The concession count backs it up too. Warriors gave away only 4 penalties to the Roosters' 11, which is the kind of discipline gap that turns field position into points on its own. Add 528 kick metres to 283 and Warriors were dictating where the game was played even while getting out-muscled in the collisions.

The scoring pattern shows how it built. Tanah Boyd opened it inside ten minutes, Tedesco hit back for the Roosters soon after to make it 6-4, and that was as close as the visitors got. Warriors ran off four straight through Adam Pompey, Kurt Capewell, Chanel Harris-Tavita and Leka Halasima to turn a four-point game into a twenty-point one by the 46th minute. Billy Smith and Angus Crichton pulled two back either side of the hour to get the margin to 12, which is when this had the shape of a genuine contest again. Harris-Tavita's second try at 75 minutes and Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad's at 78 shut the door.

Harris-Tavita finishing with a double, and a hand in the general shape of the win, lines up with the pre-match numbers. The Roosters went in rated stronger everywhere that matters on paper: forwards 1048 to 962, backs 1081 to 947, halves 1043 to 969. None of it showed up where it counted.

That's the bit worth sitting with. Alphr's model had the Roosters favoured at 61% and expected them to win by 2.8 points on a combined total near 41. Instead Warriors won by 24 and the game produced 60 points, nineteen more than tipped. The model finished 1 from 4 on this one, and Warriors covered the 5.5-point line with plenty to spare.

Form lines suggested something closer too, with the Roosters carrying three wins from their last five against the Warriors' two, and a healthy positive average margin against the Warriors' negative one. None of that travelled. Roosters could point to the collision stats and argue they were the tougher side to tackle, but tougher to tackle and better at football aren't always the same thing. Ball security and field position won this one, comfortably, whatever the tackle sheet says.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 22 | 20 | 42 |
| Roosters | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **56%** | Possession | 44% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 71% |
| **1,727** | Run metres | 1,501 |
| **635** | Post-contact metres | 452 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 6 |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **47** |
| **16** | Offloads | 12 |
| 79.0% | Effective tackle % | **87.1%** |
| 47 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| **8** | Errors | 13 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 11 |
| **528** | Kick metres | 283 |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 61% prediction for Roosters, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 2.8 but the actual margin was 24 points. The game's 60 points came in 19 points higher than the predicted 41. Warriors led 22–6 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 1/4 on this match. Warriors covered the 5.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 10 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Warriors's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Warriors have a 70% win rate under this referee. Warriors's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Tanah Boyd (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 15' Try — James Tedesco (Roosters) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Kurt Capewell (Warriors) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 33' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 46' Try — Leka Halasima (Warriors) — 26-6 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 50' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 28-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 55' Try — Angus Crichton (Roosters) — 28-16 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 75' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 34-18 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 78' Try — Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad (Warriors) — 40-18 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.51 (edge -2.4%) — model probability 60.6% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors +5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 41.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 3 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Roosters are the call at 61%, but Warriors stay live at 39%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 71 ELO points clear, 1544 to 1472. Form leans Roosters' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Warriors.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Roosters by 2.8, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Roosters, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 42-18 in 2026 Round 1.

Roosters have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Roosters favourites, Warriors $2.57 and Roosters $1.51, with the line at Warriors +5.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 2 · Roosters 8 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 42-18 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LLWW · 114 for, 99 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Market | Warriors $2.57 · Roosters $1.51 |
| Line | Warriors +5.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 7W–3L | 70% |
| Roosters | 2W–2L | 50% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Wyatt Raymond officiates, Warriors have won 7 of 10 games (70%), significantly stronger than Roosters's 2 from 4 (50%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (4 games for Roosters).

Warriors get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Roosters's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 25.6pts |
| 21.0pts | Avg Conceded | 15.6pts |
| -0.6pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1743.4m | Run Metres | 1532.2m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 359.4 | Tackles | 316.2 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 14.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R24 W · R25 W · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 L | 20.4 |
| Roosters | R24 W · R25 L · R26 W · R27 W · FW1 L | 25.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R3 | Warriors | 14 – 6 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R10 | Roosters | 38 – 18 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R9 | Warriors | 0 – 14 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R2 | Roosters | 20 – 12 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R6 | Roosters | 22 – 14 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 10th-ranked middle attack (1.48 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 10th there (1.72 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (1.6 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 15th there (1.52 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 22 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.16/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.52/g (def 15th (weak)) | 1.6/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.48/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.76/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.72/g (def 10th) |
| Right | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.16/g (att 8th) · concedes 0.72/g (def 1st (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 11 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 159m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 3.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 45 · 60 | 75 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 683m/g | 719m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.4/g | 19.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2/g | 3.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.6% | 81.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 11th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 528m/g | 494m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 9.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 91% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.31/g (lg 0.27) +15% · Locks 0.11/g (lg 0.1) +10% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.22) +0%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.71) -3% · Fullbacks 0.4/g (lg 0.42) -5% · Wingers 1.16/g (lg 1.27) -9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 6/28g | 16% | — | 🏉 79' |
| 2 | Dallin Watene-Zelezniak | WG | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/14g | 20/34g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/1g | 4/6g | 31% | — | — |
| 4 | Adam Pompey | CE | no games | 6/10g (0·1·1·0·0·2·1·1·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/33g | 32% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 5 | Roger Tuivasa-Sheck | WG | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·2·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 15/56g | 42% | — | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 12/27g | 22% | — | 🏉 34' 76' |
| 7 | Tanah Boyd | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/9g | 6% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 0/12g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 2/33g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Jackson Ford | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/28g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/18g | 12% | — | 🏉 28' |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/10g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/13g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/6g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/14g | 9% | — | — |
| 16 | Leka Halasima | INT | no games | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/1g | 7/13g | 46% | — | 🏉 47' |
| 17 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/8g | 0% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | no games | 5/10g (0·1·0·0·2·0·1·1·0·0) | 8/16g | 2/4g | 44% | — | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | no games | 12/10g (1·2·1·2·0·2·3·0·1·0) | 3/14g | 0/4g | 60% | — | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | no games | 5/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 28% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | no games | 11/10g (0·0·0·0·3·0·0·4·3·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 51% | — | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 10/23g | 3/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 1/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Benaiah Ioelu | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 2/10g | 0/4g | 32% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 12 | Nat Butcher | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 2/8g | 1/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Blake Steep | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Siua Wong | INT | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Egan Butcher | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1472 · Roosters 1544 · ELO difference: 71 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 962 | 1048 | Roosters +86 |
| Backs | 947 | 1081 | Roosters +134 |
| Halves | 969 | 1043 | Roosters +74 |
| Hooker | 989 | 1015 | Roosters +26 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Roosters |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Roosters predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-06 09:05 UTC (latest tip update)