# Storm v Eels — NRL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 52 – 4 Eels

_Storm blow away Eels._

Half time: 18 – 4 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 72% / Eels 28% · AAMI Park, Melbourne · Thu, 05 Mar, 08:00 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Will Warbrick (10'), Harry Grant (15'), Jack Howarth (26'), Joe Chan (46'), Harry Grant (51'), Moses Leo (56'), Sualauvi Faalogo (63'), Ativalu Lisati (67'), Sualauvi Faalogo (77') · Eels: Sean Russell (5' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 72% | Won |
| Eels | 28% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.7 predicted → 48 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Mar 2026, 08:19 am · Last updated: 5 Mar 2026, 09:57 pm_

Storm 52–4 Eels in NRL Round 1 at AAMI Park, Melbourne. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model liked Storm here, 72% probability, rated them 1565 to the Eels' 1491, and pegged the margin at 5.7 points. Storm won by 48. That's not a near miss, that's a different sport.

The scoreline was Storm 52, Eels 4, and the shape of it was set early. J'maine Hopgood was sin-binned inside the first minute, and Sean Russell scored out of that to put the Eels up 0-4 by the 4th. It was the only lead they'd hold all day. Will Warbrick levelled it at the 10th, Harry Grant went over four minutes later, and by the 26th minute Jack Howarth had Storm out to 16-4. Half-time came at 18-4, which lines up neatly with the model's read of a competitive contest. Then the second half happened.

Storm scored six more tries after the break, Joe Chan, a second from Harry Grant, Moses Leo, two from Sualauvi Faalogo either side of Bailey Simonsson's sin-bin at the 65th, and Ativalu Lisati for good measure. The Eels never got the ball back long enough to do anything about it.

That's the story the stats back in full. Storm ran 59% of the possession and completed at 85% to the Eels' 63%. Field position and ball retention are the whole game in league, and Storm won both easily, coughing up just 8 errors to the Eels' 17. You can't score from ball you don't have, and the Eels spent large stretches of the match not having it.

Storm's forward pack and backline were both rated above the Eels' coming in, 1026 to 987 up front and 1085 to 1015 out wide, and it showed in the collision stats. 693 post-contact metres to 397, 38 tackle breaks to 29, 13 line breaks to 3. Storm were simply harder to stop and better at making the extra metre after contact. The Eels' defence, for all their form coming in, missed 38 tackles to Storm's 29 and that gap turned into direct points more than once.

The Eels arrived with a better recent record, four wins from five against Storm's three, and better underlying form numbers across the board, more run metres, more line breaks, better average margin. None of it showed up on the day. Their 17 errors undid whatever platform that form was meant to buy them, and conceding 52 points is nowhere near their season averages suggested they should.

So the model's win call held up fine, 72% backed the right side and Storm covered the 7.5-point line with the total sailing over 43.5 as tipped. But the margin projection of 5.7 points wasn't close to the 48-point gulf that actually opened up. Three from four isn't a bad night's work, but the size of this one would have surprised the model as much as it surprised anyone watching from the stands at AAMI Park.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 18 | 34 | 52 |
| Eels | 4 | 0 | 4 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **59%** | Possession | 41% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 63% |
| **2,178** | Run metres | 1,310 |
| **693** | Post-contact metres | 397 |
| **13** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **38** | Tackle breaks | 29 |
| 9 | Offloads | **11** |
| 86.2% | Effective tackle % | **88.5%** |
| **29** | Missed tackles | 38 |
| **8** | Errors | 17 |
| 6 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **428** | Kick metres | 280 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 48 points. Storm led 18–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 48. The model went 3/4 on this match. Storm covered the 7.5-point line. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 9 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Storm's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Storm have a 73% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 0' Sin Bin — J'maine Hopgood (Eels) — 0-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 4' Try — Sean Russell (Eels) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 10' Try — Will Warbrick (Storm) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 14' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 10-4 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 26' Try — Jack Howarth (Storm) — 16-4 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 46' Try — Joe Chan (Storm) — 22-4 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 50' Try — Harry Grant (Storm) — 28-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 55' Try — Moses Leo (Storm) — 34-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 63' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 40-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 65' Sin Bin — Bailey Simonsson (Eels) — 40-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 66' Try — Ativalu Lisati (Storm) — 46-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 50-4 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.42 (edge +5.0%) — model probability 72.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Storm 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 6 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Storm here: 72% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 73 ELO points clear, 1565 to 1491. Form leans Eels' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Storm.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 5.7, with the two sides combining for about 45. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Storm to win, not to win big.

Storm have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 34-8 in 2026 Round 11.

Storm have put up 126 points in four games. Eels are 3-9 on the road this year.

The market has Storm favourites, Storm $1.42 and Eels $2.89, with the line at Storm -7.5.

Eels come in fresher, 179 days between games against 159.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 8 · Eels 2 |
| Last meeting | Storm 34-8 |
| Storm last 4 | WLWW · 126 for, 82 against |
| Storm at home | 7-5 this season |
| Eels last 4 | WLWL · 108 for, 106 against |
| Eels away | 3-9 this season |
| Market | Storm $1.42 · Eels $2.89 |
| Line | Storm -7.5 |
| Rest gap | Storm 159d · Eels 179d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 11W–4L | 73% |
| Eels | 10W–8L | 56% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Todd Smith officiates, Storm have won 11 of 15 games (73%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 18 (56%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 31.4pts |
| 23.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| -4.8pts | Avg Margin | 15.4pts |
| 1500.0m | Run Metres | 1693.8m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 335.8 | Tackles | 322.4 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | R25 W · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 W · PF W | 18.4 |
| Eels | R23 W · R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 31.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Eels | 8 – 34 | Storm |
| 2025 | R22 | Eels | 10 – 16 | Storm |
| 2025 | R1 | Storm | 56 – 18 | Eels |
| 2024 | R21 | Eels | 14 – 32 | Storm |
| 2024 | R11 | Storm | 48 – 16 | Eels |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.22 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 14th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Warbrick, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 12th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 4th there (1 conceded/game). Key man: Penisini, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.37/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.11/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.08/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.04/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 8th) |
| Right | 1.22/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 14th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 6 | 16 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 234m/g | 167m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.9/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86% | 86.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 72 · 66 | 50 · 58 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.2/g |
| Run Metres | 701m/g | 734m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.7/g | 16.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.7/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.5% | 79.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 6 | 13 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 529m/g | 482m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.7/g | 7.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.4% | 90.9% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.21/g (lg 0.14) +50% · Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Centres 0.93/g (lg 0.71) +31%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.27) +6% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.71) -3% · Locks 0.09/g (lg 0.1) -10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at AAMI Park. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Sualauvi Faalogo | FB | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/9g | 34% | — | 🏉 63' 77' |
| 2 | Will Warbrick | WG | no games | 7/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 4/5g | 14/25g | 52% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 3 | Jack Howarth | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 4/18g | 15% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 4 | Moses Leo | CE | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 56' |
| 5 | Nick Meaney | WG | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 6/14g | 19/44g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 34/101g | 12% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | no games | 6/10g (2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 5/11g | 31/68g | 38% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/14g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Harry Grant | HK | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 8/10g | 17/47g | 30% | — | 🏉 15' 51' |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 7/46g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Joe Chan | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/15g | 7% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 12 | Ativalu Lisati | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/7g | 11% | — | 🏉 67' |
| 13 | Alec MacDonald | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/32g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 11/41g | 26% | — | — |
| 15 | Cooper Clarke | INT | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 5/52g | 6% | — | — |
| 17 | Davvy Moale | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 12% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 1/1g | 1/1g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Bailey Simonsson | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 6/8g | 1/3g | 34% | — | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | no games | 4/10g (0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/9g | 1/2g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Brian Kelly | CE | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2) | 6/14g | 2/5g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Sean Russell | WG | no games | 4/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 0/1g | 26% | — | 🏉 5' |
| 6 | Jonah Pezet | 5/8 | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 1/8g | 7% | — | — |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | no games | 6/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·3) | 2/19g | 1/6g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | J'maine Hopgood | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/22g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Jack Williams | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/11g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | Jack De Belin | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/3g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/7g | 4% | — | — |
| 15 | Sam Tuivaiti | RES | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Matt Doorey | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 16% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1565 · Eels 1491 · ELO difference: 73 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1026 | 987 | Storm +39 |
| Backs | 1085 | 1015 | Storm +70 |
| Halves | 1030 | 1007 | Storm +24 |
| Hooker | 1031 | 983 | Storm +48 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Storm |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Eels |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 72%** — Storm predicted to win by 6 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-05 10:57 UTC (latest tip update)