Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Storm
72%
Eels
28%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 73-point ELO rating advantage (1565 vs 1491). The margin model predicts Storm by 5.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Line / Spread
Storm -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | WWWLL | 18.4 |
Eels | WWWLL | 20.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Storm
17.2
Eels
Avg Margin
-5.6
Storm
3.0
Eels
Run Metres
1496
Storm
1582
Eels
Line Breaks
3.8
Storm
3.8
Eels
Each team's win rate when Todd Smith refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
Storm hold a 7‑point edge: 8W–4L (67%) vs Eels's 9W–6L (60%) across all games Todd Smith has refereed for each side. His games average 45.8 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
45.8 pts
Home Win %
55%
Home Bias
Leans home
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Storm predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.