Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Storm to win at 72% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.7 but the actual margin was 48 points. Storm led 18–4 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 48. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 10 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46. Storm's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Storm have a 69% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
72%
Eels
28%
AI Match Overview
Storm are clear favourites here at 72%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Storm ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 73-point ELO rating advantage (1565 vs 1491). Recent form favours Eels with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 5.7 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.42
Winner ✓
Edge
+5.0%
Line / Spread
Storm -7.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Storm 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | R2025-R25W R2025-R26L R2025-R27L R2025-R28W R2025-R30W older → newer | 18.4 |
Eels | R2025-R23W R2025-R24L R2025-R25W R2025-R26W R2025-R27W | 31.4 |
Avg Conceded
23.2
Storm
16.0
Eels
Avg Margin
-4.8
Storm
15.4
Eels
Run Metres
1500
Storm
1694
Eels
Line Breaks
3.8
Storm
5.4
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours StormTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Storm hold a 13-point edge: 9W–4L (69%) vs Eels's 9W–7L (56%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Storm get a +0.5 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Eels's -0.5.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
72%
Storm predicted to win by 6 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.7
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