Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 80% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.5 but the actual margin was 40 points. The model went 1/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (75 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 18 points above Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Sharks have a 62% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.5 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 70% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
80%
Titans
20%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 80%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Sharks ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Sharks carry a 133-point ELO rating advantage (1548 vs 1415). Recent form favours Sharks with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Sharks by 8.5 points with a combined total of 48.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.26
Winner ✓
Edge
+4.1%
Line / Spread
Titans +11.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sharks 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2025-R28W R2025-R29W R2025-R30L older → newer | 26.0 |
Titans | R2025-R23L R2025-R24L R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27W | 24.8 |
Avg Conceded
13.2
Sharks
34.0
Titans
Avg Margin
12.8
Sharks
-9.2
Titans
Run Metres
1617
Sharks
1635
Titans
Line Breaks
4.2
Sharks
5.2
Titans
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksZiggy Przeklasa-Adamski
75 career games · since 2017
Win rate when Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Sharks have won 8 of 13 games (62%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 12 (25%).
Avg Total
41.7 pts
Home Win %
45%
Home Bias
Leans away
Pen / Game
13.5
Sin Bins / Gm
0.49
SB Away %
70%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.5 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.4 against home vs 7.1 against away. 70% of his 37 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
80%
Sharks predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 48 · Line: +8.5
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