# Sharks v Titans — NRL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 50 – 10 Titans

_Sharks run riot over Titans._

Half time: 34 – 0 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 80% / Titans 20% · Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney · Sat, 07 Mar, 05:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: William Kennedy (2' 1st), Briton Nikora (10'), Jesse Ramien (19'), Braydon Trindall (22'), Braydon Trindall (29'), Nicho Hynes (38'), Jesse Ramien (42'), Sione Katoa (71'), Nicho Hynes (77') · Titans: Sam Verrills (48'), Siale Faeamani (54')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 80% | Won |
| Titans | 20% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.5 predicted → 40 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Gold Coast Titans Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Mar 2026, 08:19 am · Last updated: 7 Mar 2026, 09:08 pm_

Sharks 50–10 Titans in NRL Round 1 at Ocean Protect Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Half-time at Ocean Protect Stadium read Sharks 34, Titans 0, and there wasn't much left to debate. Six tries in, none conceded, and the only live question was whether the Titans could find some pride after the break. They did, just not enough of it.

Sharks had put the game away before Titans troubled the scoreboard. William Kennedy opened the account inside the first minute, Briton Nikora followed at the 9th, Jesse Ramien crossed at 19', and Braydon Trindall doubled up at 21' and 29' before Nicho Hynes got over just before the break. That's six different names on the scoresheet inside 40 minutes, which tells you this wasn't one player carrying the load. It was the whole side taking turns.

The second half opened with more of the same. Ramien grabbed his second early to push it to 38-0, and by that point the Titans were chasing a scoreboard that had already run away from them. They did respond, Sam Verrills at 48' and Sialetili Faeamani at 53' getting the visitors on the board with back-to-back tries, the only real spell of the match where Titans looked like the team playing footy. It brought them to 40-10 and, briefly, some respectability. Sharks shut that down fast, with Sione Katoa finishing one off at 70' and Hynes claiming his second at 76' to push it out to the final 50-10.

The stat sheet backs up what the scoreboard already said. Sharks ran for 1,632 metres to the Titans' 1,187, and were 508 metres up in post-contact metres to 392, the kind of gap that comes from repeatedly getting over the advantage line and dragging defenders with it. Seven line breaks to three, 37 tackle busts to 23, and 11 offloads to 7 all point the same direction: Sharks had the ball doing more work every time they touched it.

Defensively it was just as lopsided. Titans missed 37 tackles to the Sharks' 23, and an effective tackle rate of 86.7% against 90.1% doesn't sound like much until you watch it translate into eight tries conceded. Sharks were the tidier side too, with fewer errors (8 to 10) despite holding more of the ball, 53% to 47%.

None of this should come as a shock given what both sides brought into the game. Sharks held the stronger rating across the park, forwards 1080 to 927, backs 1065 to 915, halves 1065 to 903, and that gap showed up exactly where you'd expect: go-forward and go-forward again. Titans arrived off four straight losses conceding an average of 34 points a game, and this one didn't buck that trend, it confirmed it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 34 | 16 | 50 |
| Titans | 0 | 10 | 10 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,632** | Run metres | 1,187 |
| **508** | Post-contact metres | 392 |
| **7** | Line breaks | 3 |
| **37** | Tackle breaks | 23 |
| **11** | Offloads | 7 |
| **90.1%** | Effective tackle % | 86.7% |
| **23** | Missed tackles | 37 |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| 8 | Penalties conceded | **5** |
| **443** | Kick metres | 429 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 80% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 8.5 but the actual margin was 40 points. The model went 1/4 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiated this match (78 career games). The combined score of 60 points was 18 points above Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's career average of 42. Sharks's victory aligns with Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski's historical trend, Sharks have a 62% win rate under this referee. Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averaged 13.3 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 71% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 1' Try — William Kennedy (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 9' Try — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 19' Try — Jesse Ramien (Sharks) — 16-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 21' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 20-0 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 29' Try — Braydon Trindall (Sharks) — 26-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 38' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 32-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 42' Try — Jesse Ramien (Sharks) — 38-0 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 48' Try — Sam Verrills (Titans) — 40-4 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 53' Try — Siale Faeamani (Titans) — 40-10 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 70' Try — Sione Katoa (Sharks) — 44-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 48-10 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.26 (edge +4.1%) — model probability 79.7% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Titans +11.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sharks 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 9 · Predicted total: 48

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 80% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 133 ELO points clear, 1548 to 1415. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Sharks by 8.5, with the two sides combining for about 48. Sharks to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Sharks have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Sharks took the most recent meeting 30-22 in 2026 Round 25.

Sharks have leaked 124 in their last four. Titans have lost 6 straight; Titans have leaked 132 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 on the road this year. Titans have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Sharks favourites, Sharks $1.26 and Titans $3.90, with the line at Sharks -11.5.

Titans come in fresher, 181 days between games against 161.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 9 · Titans 1 |
| Last meeting | Sharks 30-22 |
| Sharks last 4 | LLWL · 74 for, 124 against |
| Sharks at home | 9-4 this season |
| Titans last 4 | LLLL · 90 for, 132 against |
| Titans away | 3-9 this season |
| Market | Sharks $1.26 · Titans $3.90 |
| Line | Sharks -11.5 |
| Rest gap | Sharks 161d · Titans 181d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski** — 78 career games since 2017.

| Team | Record under Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 8W–5L | 62% |
| Titans | 3W–9L | 25% |

Avg total: 41.7 pts · Home win %: 46% · Home bias: Leans away

When Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski officiates, Sharks have won 8 of 13 games (62%), significantly stronger than Titans's 3 from 12 (25%).

Ziggy Przeklasa-Adamski averages 13.3 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7 against away. 71% of his 38 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.0pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 13.2pts | Avg Conceded | 34.0pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Margin | -9.2pts |
| 1617.2m | Run Metres | 1634.6m |
| 4.2 | Line Breaks | 5.2 |
| 354.0 | Tackles | 338.0 |
| 9.6 | Errors | 13.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | R26 W · R27 W · FW1 W · SF W · PF L | 26.0 |
| Titans | R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Titans | 22 – 30 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R24 | Sharks | 54 – 22 | Titans |
| 2024 | R23 | Titans | 0 – 44 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R18 | Sharks | 16 – 20 | Titans |
| 2023 | R24 | Sharks | 36 – 6 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.59 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 14th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Iro, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Titans' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.46 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 7th there (1.07 conceded/game). Key man: Fermor, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.59/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 14th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.78/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.26/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.21/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.96/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 0.85/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.07/g (def 7th) | 1.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.58/g (def 17th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 14 | 16 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 180m/g | 189m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.9/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.4/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 85.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 62 · 55 | 56 · 75 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 736m/g | 679m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.7/g | 12.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 2.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.4% | 76.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Titans |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 26 · 18 | 17 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.4/g |
| Run Metres | 510m/g | 551m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 9.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.9% | 91% |

**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.27/g (lg 0.16) +69% · Fullbacks 0.63/g (lg 0.42) +50% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.46) +33%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.22) +9%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Ocean Protect Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 2' |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 6/8g | 0/0g | 42% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 19' 42' |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | no games | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 48% | — | — |
| 5 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | no games | 8/10g (2·0·0·0·2·2·0·2·0·0) | 2/1g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 22' 29' |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/7g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 38' 77' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Hazelton | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 12 | Billy Burns | 2R | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/10g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Toby Rudolf | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Keano Kini | FB | no games | 3/10g (2·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 15% | — | — |
| 2 | Siale Faeamani | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 54' |
| 3 | Jojo Fifita | CE | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Max Feagai | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 5 | Phillip Sami | WG | no games | 7/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·2·2·1·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 44% | — | — |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 1/8g | 0/0g | 38% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Ilias | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 10% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 10 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 11 | Arama Hau | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·1) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 13 | Chris Randall | LK | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Tukimihia Simpkins | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Klese Haas | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Cooper Bai | INT | no games | 0/2g (0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1548 · Titans 1415 · ELO difference: 133 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Titans | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1080 | 927 | Sharks +154 |
| Backs | 1065 | 915 | Sharks +151 |
| Halves | 1065 | 903 | Sharks +162 |
| Hooker | 1029 | 881 | Sharks +148 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sharks |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 80%** — Sharks predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 48 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-07 10:08 UTC (latest tip update)