Win Probability
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 51% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sea Eagles by 1.1 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Raiders trailed 14–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–29. The model went 1/4 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 57 points was 10 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Raiders's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Raiders have a 86% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sea Eagles
51%
Raiders
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Sea Eagles a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Raiders are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Sea Eagles counter with Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency which tips the scales. Raiders carry a 24-point ELO rating advantage (1517 vs 1493). Recent form favours Sea Eagles with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Raiders. The margin model predicts Sea Eagles by 1.1 points with a combined total of 44.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sea Eagles to Win @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.3%
Line / Spread
Sea Eagles -0.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Sea Eagles 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sea Eagles | R2025-R23L R2025-R24L R2025-R25W R2025-R26W R2025-R27W older → newer | 29.8 |
Raiders | R2025-R25W R2025-R26W R2025-R27L R2025-R28L R2025-R29L | 21.6 |
Avg Conceded
26.8
Sea Eagles
29.8
Raiders
Avg Margin
3.0
Sea Eagles
-8.2
Raiders
Run Metres
1765
Sea Eagles
1596
Raiders
Line Breaks
5.8
Sea Eagles
4.2
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours RaidersLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 6 of 7 games (86%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 4 from 8 (50%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Raiders).
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Raiders's -1.6.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1517 vs 1493), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.91).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Sea Eagles predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +1.1
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