# Sea Eagles v Raiders — NRL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sea Eagles 28 – 29 Raiders

_Raiders roar back to ransack Sea Eagles from 8 down._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sea Eagles 51% / Raiders 49% · Brookvale Oval, Sydney · Sat, 07 Mar, 07:35 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Sea Eagles: Tom Trbojevic (3' 1st), Haumole Olakau'atu (17'), Tolutau Koula (73'), Jamal Fogarty (75') · Raiders: Noah Martin (20'), Noah Martin (46'), Xavier Savage (49'), Xavier Savage (53'), Ethan Sanders (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 51% | Lost |
| Raiders | 49% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 1.1 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sea Eagles vs Raiders Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 1, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Mar 2026, 08:19 am · Last updated: 7 Mar 2026, 11:14 pm_

Sea Eagles 28–29 Raiders in NRL Round 1 at Brookvale Oval, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Alphr's model had this one almost dead level before kick-off, Raiders rated 1517 to the Sea Eagles' 1493, and it landed on a Sea Eagles win by 1.1 points. The final margin came in at 1 point, just the wrong way round. Raiders 29, Sea Eagles 28. Sharp on the margin, wrong on the winner, and that's the kind of split result that makes you check the ladder twice.

The shape of the game backs up why the model saw it as tight. Sea Eagles came out of the blocks fast, Tom Trbojevic opening the scoring inside three minutes and Haumole Olakau'atu following up by the 16th to make it 12-0. Noah Martin got Raiders on the board in the 19th, and at the break it was 14-6. On paper, a lead. In practice, nowhere near enough.

Raiders flipped it after halftime and didn't really stop. Martin's second try in the 45th got them within four, Xavier Savage crossed twice inside five minutes either side of the hour mark to put Raiders in front for the first time, and Ethan Sanders extended it to 26-14 in the 67th. Sea Eagles had one last surge, Tolutau Koula and Jamal Fogarty scoring in the space of a minute to get within four points at 24-28, but Sanders iced it with a field goal in the 81st. A one-point game decided by the sort of kick nobody wants to be the reason for.

The stat sheet tells you where that comeback came from. Raiders ran for 1,697 metres to the Sea Eagles' 1,512, and the post-contact numbers are the real story: 532 to 469. That's a pack that kept legs driving through the tackle all night. Add 49 tackle breaks to 36 and 12 offloads to 8, and Raiders were simply harder to put on the ground and quicker to recycle it when they were. Six line breaks to four backs it up.

Sea Eagles were the tidier side, no argument. An 81% completion rate to 80%, and just 8 errors against 10, is usually enough to win you a game like this. It wasn't, because their defence sprung leaks late, missing 49 tackles to the Raiders' 36 and conceding at an effective rate of 83.5% against 88.5%. Penalties told a similar story, 5 conceded to 8, but discipline alone doesn't stop a team running over you.

Go back to the positional ratings and it starts to make sense. Raiders held the edge in the backs (1048 to 1025) and at hooker (987 to 961), and that's exactly where this game turned, wide carries busting tackles and quick service off the back of the ruck. Sea Eagles' 563 kicking metres to 465 gave them territory, but territory without a defence that can finish sets is just a longer walk to the same result.

Form lines had Sea Eagles favourites too, three wins from five against two, and a healthier average margin. Raiders arrived on a three-game skid. None of it mattered once the second half kicked off. The model called the margin close to perfect. It just backed the wrong jersey.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 14 | 14 | 28 |
| Raiders | 6 | 23 | 29 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **81%** | Completion rate | 80% |
| 1,512 | Run metres | **1,697** |
| 469 | Post-contact metres | **532** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 36 | Tackle breaks | **49** |
| 8 | Offloads | **12** |
| 83.5% | Effective tackle % | **88.5%** |
| 49 | Missed tackles | **36** |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| **5** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **563** | Kick metres | 465 |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 51% prediction for Sea Eagles, a notable result. The margin model was sharp, predicting Sea Eagles by 1.1 vs the actual margin of 1 points. Raiders trailed 14–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 28–29. The model went 1/4 on this match. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 57 points was 10 points above Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Raiders's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Raiders have a 86% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 3' Try — Tom Trbojevic (Sea Eagles) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 16' Try — Haumole Olakau'atu (Sea Eagles) — 12-0 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 19' Try — Noah Martin (Raiders) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 45' Try — Noah Martin (Raiders) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 48' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 14-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 52' Try — Xavier Savage (Raiders) — 14-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 67' Try — Ethan Sanders (Raiders) — 14-26 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 73' Try — Tolutau Koula (Sea Eagles) — 18-28 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 74' Try — Jamal Fogarty (Sea Eagles) — 24-28 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 81' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Ethan Sanders (Raiders) — 28-29 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sea Eagles to win @ $1.91 (edge +0.3%) — model probability 50.5% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Sea Eagles -0.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Sea Eagles 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sea Eagles by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Sea Eagles and Raiders. The model can't split them, landing on Sea Eagles at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Raiders sit 24 ELO points clear, 1517 to 1493, so the model is backing Sea Eagles against the ratings gap. Form leans Sea Eagles' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Raiders.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Sea Eagles by 1.1, with the two sides combining for about 44. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have put up 128 points in four games. Raiders have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Sea Eagles favourites, Sea Eagles $1.91 and Raiders $1.93, with the line at Sea Eagles -0.5.

Sea Eagles come in fresher, 183 days between games against 167.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sea Eagles 5 · Raiders 5 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 29-28 |
| Sea Eagles last 4 | LWWL · 118 for, 87 against |
| Sea Eagles at home | 6-6 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | LWLW · 128 for, 114 against |
| Raiders away | 6-6 this season |
| Market | Sea Eagles $1.91 · Raiders $1.93 |
| Line | Sea Eagles -0.5 |
| Rest gap | Sea Eagles 183d · Raiders 167d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Raiders

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | 4W–4L | 50% |
| Raiders | 6W–1L | 86% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Liam Kennedy officiates, Raiders have won 6 of 7 games (86%), significantly stronger than Sea Eagles's 4 from 8 (50%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Small sample (7 games for Raiders).

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Sea Eagles get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Raiders's -1.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sea Eagles | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 29.8pts | Avg Score | 21.6pts |
| 26.8pts | Avg Conceded | 29.8pts |
| 3.0pts | Avg Margin | -8.2pts |
| 1765.4m | Run Metres | 1596.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 323.2 | Tackles | 358.8 |
| 13.0 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sea Eagles | R23 L · R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 29.8 |
| Raiders | R25 W · R26 W · R27 L · FW1 L · SF L | 21.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sea Eagles lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R23 | Raiders | 28 – 12 | Sea Eagles |
| 2025 | R3 | Sea Eagles | 40 – 12 | Raiders |
| 2024 | R23 | Raiders | 24 – 46 | Sea Eagles |
| 2024 | R9 | Sea Eagles | 24 – 26 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R12 | Raiders | 14 – 42 | Sea Eagles |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sea Eagles' best path is the left edge: NRL's 6th-ranked left edge attack (1.42 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.77 conceded/game). Key man: Garrick, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.12 tries/game) runs at a Sea Eagles defence ranked 12th there (1.79 conceded/game). Key man: Strange, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sea Eagles | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.42/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.42/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.77/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.17/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.79/g (def 12th) | 2.12/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1.29/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 8th) | 1.04/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sea Eagles | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 18 | 20 · 7 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 192m/g | 162m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.4% | 86.6% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sea Eagles | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 60 · 51 | 57 · 65 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 716m/g | 662m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.9/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 2.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.2% | 76.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sea Eagles | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 15 | 33 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 498m/g | 597m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.2/g | 10.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 91.8% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Centres 0.87/g (lg 0.71) +23% · Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.27) +22%
**Who scores on Sea Eagles** — Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Wingers 1.35/g (lg 1.27) +6% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.42) +5%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Brookvale Oval. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sea Eagles** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tom Trbojevic | FB | no games | 5/10g (0·2·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 16/13g | 40/60g | 42% | — | 🏉 3' |
| 2 | Jason Saab | WG | no games | 3/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 22/38g | 50% | — | — |
| 3 | Tolutau Koula | CE | no games | 8/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 1/6g | 22/35g | 58% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 4 | Reuben Garrick | CE | no games | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·2·1·0·0·0·0) | 10/11g | 40/58g | 34% | — | — |
| 5 | Lehi Hopoate | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·2) | 1/2g | 10/18g | 30% | — | — |
| 6 | Luke Brooks | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 5/18g | 8/29g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 4% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 8 | Taniela Paseka | PR | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 2/47g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Jake Simpkin | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 2/17g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Siosiua Taukeiaho | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/15g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Haumole Olakau'atu | 2R | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·2·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 18/39g | 32% | — | 🏉 17' |
| 12 | Ben Trbojevic | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 10/34g | 24% | — | — |
| 13 | Jake Trbojevic | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/18g | 17/96g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Joey Walsh | RES | no games | 0/3g (0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Kobe Hetherington | INT | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 16 | Ethan Bullemor | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 4/6g | 6/37g | 16% | — | — |
| 17 | Nathan Brown | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 2/22g | 4% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | no games | 8/10g (1·3·0·1·0·0·1·0·2·0) | 2/4g | 1/10g | 40% | — | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | no games | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 35% | — | — |
| 3 | Simi Sasagi | CE | no games | 5/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 5/8g | 2/3g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 3/7g | 0/3g | 46% | — | 🏉 49' 53' |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | no games | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·3·1·1·1) | 3/4g | 0/2g | 36% | — | — |
| 7 | Ethan Sanders | HB | no games | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 0% | — | 🏉 68' |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/23g | 1/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/16g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/11g | 2/3g | 32% | — | — |
| 12 | Noah Martin | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 18% | — | 🏉 20' 46' |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Ata Mariota | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Morgan Smithies | INT | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Raiders hold the ELO advantage (1517 vs 1493), but the market favours Sea Eagles (@1.91). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sea Eagles 1493 · Raiders 1517 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Raiders

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sea Eagles | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 993 | 988 | Sea Eagles +6 |
| Backs | 1025 | 1048 | Raiders +24 |
| Halves | 985 | 992 | Raiders +7 |
| Hooker | 961 | 987 | Raiders +26 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Raiders |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sea Eagles |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sea Eagles |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Sea Eagles predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-07 12:14 UTC (latest tip update)