Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 1.9 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 48.8 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Ashley Klein officiated this match (386 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 44. Knights bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 45% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Knights's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Knights
51%
Cowboys
49%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Knights a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Cowboys are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Knights counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Cowboys with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 1.9 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @2.41
Winner ✓
Edge
+11.4%
Line / Spread
Cowboys -4.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Cowboys 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 48.8 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Knights | R2025-R23L R2025-R24L R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27L older → newer | 10.8 |
Cowboys | R2025-R22L R2025-R23L R2025-R24W R2025-R25W R2025-R26L | 26.4 |
Avg Conceded
47.6
Knights
24.2
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-36.8
Knights
2.2
Cowboys
Run Metres
1336
Knights
1685
Cowboys
Line Breaks
3.4
Knights
3.2
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysAshley Klein
386 career games · since 2010
Win rate when Ashley Klein refs each team (vs any opponent)
Cowboys hold a 6-point edge: 19W–23L (45%) vs Knights's 16W–25L (39%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
43.6 pts
Home Win %
60%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
8.9
Sin Bins / Gm
0.16
SB Away %
42%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Ashley Klein averages just 8.9 penalties per game, well below average. He lets the game flow. Cowboys get a +1.1 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Knights's +0.8.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Knights predicted to win by 2 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.9
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