NRL | Round 1

alphr.com.au

NEW
Knights
VS
NQL
Cowboys
ALLEGIANT STADIUM, LAS VEGAS • SUNDAY 1 MAR, 1:15 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

51%KnightsFavourite

Knights

51%

Cowboys

49%

✨

AI Match Overview

This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Knights a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Cowboys are stronger on paper across 5 of 7 key factors — including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality — but Knights counter with Referee Tendency and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Cowboys with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Knights. The margin model predicts Cowboys by 1.9 points with a combined total of 43.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

1 ACTIVE EDGE

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Knights to Win @2.41

Winner ✓

Edge

+11.4%

✓

Line / Spread

Cowboys -4.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Cowboys 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 48.8 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Knights
WLLLL
13.6
Cowboys
WWLLL
26.4

Avg Conceded

42.0

Knights

24.2

Cowboys

Avg Margin

-28.4

Knights

2.2

Cowboys

Run Metres

1349

Knights

1685

Cowboys

Line Breaks

4.0

Knights

3.2

Cowboys

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Cowboys
Ashley Klein379 games since 2010

Each team's win rate when Ashley Klein refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

NEW
38%15W 24L
NQL
45%18W 22L

Cowboys hold a 7‑point edge: 18W–22L (45%) vs Knights's 15W–24L (38%) across all games Ashley Klein has refereed for each side. His games average 43.4 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Knights an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

43.4 pts

Home Win %

60%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Cowboys lead 5-0
Aug 2025NEW 4 - 38 NQL
Sep 2024NEW 16 - 28 NQL
Mar 2024NEW 20 - 21 NQL
Apr 2023NEW 16 - 18 NQL
May 2022NEW 16 - 36 NQL
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

NEW
1437Overall1445
NQL
ELO difference: -7 in favour of Cowboys

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

935Forwards938
Even
937Backs960
NQL +23
965Halves952
NEW +14
975Hooker944
NEW +31

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

NEW
Stat
NQL
1.0
Wins (Last 5)
2.0
13.6pts
Avg Score
26.4pts
42.0pts
Avg Conceded
24.2pts
-28.4pts
Avg Margin
2.2pts
1349.3m
Run Metres
1685.0m
4.0
Line Breaks
3.2
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Cowboys
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Cowboys
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Cowboys
4
Halves Control9.0%
Cowboys
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Cowboys
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Knights
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Knights

Model Confidence

51%

Knights predicted to win by 2 points

Predicted total: 43 · Line: -1.9

2/4 match predictions correct
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