# Knights v Cowboys — NRL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Knights 28 – 18 Cowboys

_Knights lay siege to Cowboys._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Knights 51% / Cowboys 49% · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas · Sun, 01 Mar, 01:15 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (6' 1st), Greg Marzhew (13'), Bradman Best (45'), Dominic Young (48'), Trey Mooney (72') · Cowboys: Heilum Luki (26'), Murray Taulagi (30'), Murray Taulagi (52')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 51% | Won |
| Cowboys | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 1.9 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Newcastle Knights vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Mar 2026, 08:19 am · Last updated: 4 Mar 2026, 09:12 am_

Knights 28–18 Cowboys in NRL Round 1 at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Two minutes flipped this one. Locked at 12-12 at the break, the Knights ripped off tries through Bradman Best in the 45th and Dominic Young two minutes later, and just like that a dead-square game became a ten-point buffer. Murray Taulagi hit back for the Cowboys not long after, but the damage was done. Final score: Knights 28, Cowboys 18.

The first half had been an arm wrestle worth watching. Fletcher Sharpe opened it inside six minutes, Greg Marzhew stretched it to 10-0 by the 13th, and it looked like the Knights might run away early. The Cowboys had other ideas, Heilum Luki crossing in the 25th and Taulagi levelling it at 12-12 by the half-hour mark. Whatever was said at the break, only one team came out swinging.

Trey Mooney's try in the 72nd, with the Cowboys down to twelve men after Braidon Burns copped a sin bin in the 71st, was really just the formality. By then the Knights had already won the contest that mattered most: field position.

Kick metres tell that story on their own, 706 to 581 in the Knights' favour, and it shows up everywhere else on the sheet. Four line breaks to two, 41 tackle breaks to 37, and a dozen offloads against just seven from the Cowboys. The Knights weren't just getting to the line, they were getting through it and keeping the ball alive when they did.

Defensively it was tighter than the scoreline suggests, but the Knights still had the edge where it counts: 88.4% effective tackling against 86.4%, and 37 missed tackles to the Cowboys' 41. Errors were dead level at 12 apiece, so this wasn't won by one side falling over. It was won by the Knights doing the accurate, unglamorous stuff marginally better for eighty minutes.

Which is a fair way to describe an upset of the model's own numbers too. Alphr had the Knights as 51% favourites, on ratings of 1437 to the Cowboys' 1445, and picked them by 1.9 points against an actual margin of ten. The under on 48.8 landed, with the game finishing on 46 points against a pre-match total read of 43. Two from four isn't a flawless night for the model, but the shape of the read, close game, slight home lean, low-ish total, held up.

What makes it more interesting is the form line each side dragged into Allegiant Stadium. The Cowboys arrived with two wins from their last five and an average margin of plus 2.2, the Knights winless in five with an average margin of minus 36.8. On paper this should have been a canter for Townsville. Instead the Cowboys actually out-carried the Knights for run metres, 1,855 to 1,745, and post-contact metres, 659 to 624, without it translating to the scoreboard.

That's the bit worth sitting with. The Cowboys did plenty of the heavy lifting stat-wise and still walked away with a ten-point loss, because the Knights made their moments count and controlled the boot battle when it mattered. Form charts said one thing. The middle two minutes after half-time said another.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Knights | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| Cowboys | 12 | 6 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Knights | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 75% | Completion rate | **76%** |
| 1,745 | Run metres | **1,855** |
| 624 | Post-contact metres | **659** |
| **4** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **41** | Tackle breaks | 37 |
| **12** | Offloads | 7 |
| **88.4%** | Effective tackle % | 86.4% |
| **37** | Missed tackles | 41 |
| 12 | Errors | 12 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **706** | Kick metres | 581 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 1.9 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. The model went 2/4 on this match. The under 48.8 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Knights's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 13' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Heilum Luki (Cowboys) — 12-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 30' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 12-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 45' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 16-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 47' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 22-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 51' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 22-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 71' Sin Bin — Braidon Burns (Cowboys) — 22-16 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 72' Try — Trey Mooney (Knights) — 26-18 · win-prob swing +6 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $2.41 (edge +11.4%) — model probability 50.8% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys -4.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Cowboys 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.8 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 2 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Knights and Cowboys. The model can't split them, landing on Knights at 51%. Form leans Cowboys' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Knights.

On paper Cowboys shade it, ahead on 2 of 7 factors including Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The model still sides with Knights, which says Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Cowboys by 1.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Cowboys have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 28-18 in 2026 Round 1.

Knights have won 3 straight. Cowboys have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Cowboys favourites, Knights $2.41 and Cowboys $1.57, with the line at Knights +4.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Knights 3 · Cowboys 7 |
| Last meeting | Knights 28-18 |
| Knights last 4 | LWWW · 86 for, 80 against |
| Knights at home | 8-4 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWLL · 100 for, 118 against |
| Cowboys away | 6-7 this season |
| Market | Knights $2.41 · Cowboys $1.57 |
| Line | Knights +4.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 19W–27L | 41% |
| Cowboys | 19W–25L | 43% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Knights 19W–27L (41%) and Cowboys 19W–25L (43%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Cowboys get a +0.8 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Knights's +0.4.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Knights | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 0.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 10.8pts | Avg Score | 26.4pts |
| 47.6pts | Avg Conceded | 24.2pts |
| -36.8pts | Avg Margin | 2.2pts |
| 1335.8m | Run Metres | 1685.0m |
| 3.4 | Line Breaks | 3.2 |
| 369.6 | Tackles | 331.2 |
| 12.6 | Errors | 13.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L | 10.8 |
| Cowboys | R22 L · R23 L · R24 W · R25 W · R26 L | 26.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Cowboys lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | R24 | Cowboys | 38 – 4 | Knights |
| 2024 | FW1 | Cowboys | 28 – 16 | Knights |
| 2024 | R2 | Cowboys | 21 – 20 | Knights |
| 2023 | R8 | Cowboys | 18 – 16 | Knights |
| 2022 | R9 | Cowboys | 36 – 16 | Knights |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 16th-ranked left edge attack (0.92 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 16th there (1.67 conceded/game). Key man: Best, 6 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.5 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 8th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 13 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Knights | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.92/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 1.04/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.67/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 0.92/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 2.25/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 9th) |
| Right | 0.63/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 8th) | 1.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Knights | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 16 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 179m/g | 225m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.4/g | 5.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 86.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Knights | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 17th (weak) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 34 · 55 | 63 · 68 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 753m/g | 750m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 22.7/g | 15.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.9/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 74.3% | 75.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Knights | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 20 | 12 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 509m/g | 463m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.5/g | 6.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.9% | 88.8% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.25/g (lg 0.16) +56% · Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.27) +26% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23%
**Who scores on Knights** — Props 0.21/g (lg 0.16) +31% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | no games | 4/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 6/5g | 0/0g | 50% | — | 🏉 48' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/18g | 0/0g | 14% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 30% | — | 🏉 45' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | no games | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 32% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | no games | 10/10g (1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0·2·1) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 58% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 7 | Dylan Brown | HB | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Trey Mooney | PR | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 7% | — | 🏉 72' |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | no games | 4/10g (0·1·0·3·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Sandon Smith | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | LK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Thomas Cant | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Pasami Saulo | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | no games | 7/10g (2·1·0·1·1·0·0·2·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Braidon Burns | WG | no games | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 46% | — | — |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 4 | Tom Chester | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 19% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | no games | 8/10g (1·1·1·0·0·1·1·1·0·2) | 5/6g | 0/0g | 52% | — | 🏉 30' 52' |
| 6 | Jake Clifford | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 0/0g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Tom Dearden | HB | no games | 5/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·0·1·1·0) | 5/6g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 8 | Coen Hess | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/17g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Heilum Luki | 2R | no games | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 12 | Sam McIntyre | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Soni Luke | RES | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 15 | Thomas Mikaele | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Kai O'Donnell | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Knights 1437 · Cowboys 1445 · ELO difference: 7 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Knights | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 935 | 938 | Cowboys +3 |
| Backs | 937 | 960 | Cowboys +23 |
| Halves | 965 | 952 | Knights +14 |
| Hooker | 975 | 944 | Knights +31 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Knights predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-03 22:12 UTC (latest tip update)