Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 0.7 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 70 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 3/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The over 43.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 26 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 45% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Dolphins
49%
Rabbitohs
51%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Rabbitohs a marginal 51% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 6 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Rabbitohs counter with Recent Win Rate which tips the scales. Dolphins carry a 54-point ELO rating advantage (1508 vs 1454). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Dolphins.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Rabbitohs to Win @2.00
Winner ✓
Edge
+3.4%
Line / Spread
Rabbitohs +1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Dolphins 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 43.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Dolphins | R2025-R23L R2025-R24L R2025-R25L R2025-R26W R2025-R27W older → newer | 33.6 |
Rabbitohs | R2025-R22L R2025-R23W R2025-R24W R2025-R25W R2025-R27L | 20.0 |
Avg Conceded
42.8
Dolphins
26.0
Rabbitohs
Avg Margin
-9.2
Dolphins
-6.0
Rabbitohs
Run Metres
1612
Dolphins
1570
Rabbitohs
Line Breaks
7.6
Dolphins
4.2
Rabbitohs
Referee Indicator
Favours RabbitohsPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Rabbitohs have won 9 of 20 games (45%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 9 (22%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1508 vs 1454), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@2.00).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
51%
Rabbitohs predicted to win by 1 points
Predicted total: 44 · Line: +0.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets, built on our 6-model player stats engine.