# Dolphins v Rabbitohs — NRL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 30 – 40 Rabbitohs

_Rabbitohs hop past Dolphins._

Half time: 10 – 28 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 49% / Rabbitohs 51% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 08 Mar, 04:05 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Jake Averillo (10'), Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (25'), Herbie Farnworth (51'), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (55'), Jamayne Isaako (77') · Rabbitohs: Campbell Graham (3' 1st), Latrell Mitchell (15'), Campbell Graham (33' 1st), Jye Gray (35'), Alex Johnston (39'), Lachlan Hubner (63'), Latrell Mitchell (68')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 51% | Won |
| Dolphins | 49% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 0.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Dolphins vs Rabbitohs Prediction and Tips - NRL Round 1, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Mar 2026, 08:19 am · Last updated: 8 Mar 2026, 06:08 pm_

Dolphins 30–40 Rabbitohs in NRL Round 1 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Thirty-seven. That's how many tackles the Dolphins missed, and it's also how many tackle breaks the Rabbitohs racked up running the other way. Same number, both ends of the same problem, and it's why Souths walked out of Suncorp Stadium with a 40-30 win.

The scoreboard at the break, 28-10, tells you the damage was done early. Campbell Graham opened the account inside two minutes, and after Jake Averillo levelled things up at 4-4, the Rabbitohs simply took over. Latrell Mitchell, Graham again, Jye Gray and Alex Johnston all crossed inside a 25-minute stretch either side of that early scuffle, and by the 39th minute it was 10-28. The Dolphins were still finding their feet defensively while Souths had already banked four tries.

Look at the raw materials and it's not hard to see why. Souths ran for 1,889 metres to the Dolphins' 1,652, and post-contact they found another 504 to the home side's 405. That's a team getting go-forward after first contact, over and over, and it shows up in the 8 line breaks and 37 tackle breaks they piled up. The Dolphins missed 37 tackles trying to stop it. Numbers like that don't happen by accident, they happen because a forward pack rated at 937 going in kept getting shoved backwards by one rated at 1,003, only this time the wrong way round on the scoreboard.

To their credit, the Dolphins didn't fold. Herbie Farnworth and Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow scored in quick succession either side of the hour mark to drag it back to 20-28, and suddenly a laugher had a pulse again. But Lachlan Hubner and a second Mitchell try in the 62nd and 67th minutes put it back out to 16, and Jamayne Isaako's late four-pointer in the 77th was little more than scoreboard tidy-up. Two sin bins in the 71st minute, Tom Gilbert for the Dolphins and David Fifita for the Rabbitohs, cancelled each other out and didn't change the story.

The completion numbers back up the eye test. Souths finished at 77% to the Dolphins' 65%, and it's that sort of discipline with ball in hand that let them control territory too, 543 kick metres to 402. Fewer opportunities gifted, more use of the boot to pin territory. The penalty count, 7 to 3 against the Dolphins, didn't help their cause either.

Form-wise this lines up. The Rabbitohs came in having won three of their last five, the Dolphins two, and Souths' last-five defensive average of 26 points conceded looks a lot more credible next to the 42.8 the Dolphins had been leaking. Alphr's model had Souths as 51% favourites and picked the margin at just 0.7 points, well short of the actual 10, though the win itself was called correctly. The total was the bigger miss in the other direction: 44 points projected, 70 delivered, blown out by a scoreline that never really settled down. Three from four for the model on this one, backing a side that did exactly what its form suggested it might, just with more points scored on both sides than anyone bargained for.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 10 | 20 | 30 |
| Rabbitohs | 28 | 12 | 40 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 41% | Possession | **59%** |
| 65% | Completion rate | **77%** |
| 1,652 | Run metres | **1,889** |
| 405 | Post-contact metres | **504** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 19 | Tackle breaks | **37** |
| **14** | Offloads | 7 |
| **89.1%** | Effective tackle % | 86.9% |
| 37 | Missed tackles | **19** |
| 14 | Errors | **13** |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 402 | Kick metres | **543** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Rabbitohs to win at 51% probability. The predicted margin of 0.7 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 70 points came in 26 points higher than the predicted 44. The model went 3/4 on this match. Rabbitohs covered the 1.5-point line. The over 43.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The combined score of 70 points was 26 points above Peter Gough's career average of 44. Rabbitohs's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Rabbitohs have a 45% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 2' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 9' Try — Jake Averillo (Dolphins) — 4-4 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 14' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 4-8 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 25' Try — Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 32' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 10-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 10-22 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 39' Try — Alex Johnston (Rabbitohs) — 10-28 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 51' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 14-28 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 54' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 20-28 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 62' Try — Lachlan Hubner (Rabbitohs) — 22-32 · win-prob swing -16 pts
- 67' Try — Latrell Mitchell (Rabbitohs) — 22-38 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 71' Sin Bin — Tom Gilbert (Dolphins) — 22-38 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 71' Sin Bin — David Fifita (Rabbitohs) — 22-38 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 77' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 26-40 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $2.00 (edge +3.4%) — model probability 51.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 43.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 1 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Dolphins and Rabbitohs. The model can't split them, landing on Rabbitohs at 51%. The ratings say otherwise: Dolphins sit 54 ELO points clear, 1508 to 1454, so the model is backing Rabbitohs against the ratings gap. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Dolphins.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The model still sides with Rabbitohs, which says Recent Win Rate carry the most weight. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

The recent history is dead even: 3 wins apiece from the last 6.

Dolphins have won 7 straight. Rabbitohs have put up 140 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Dolphins 4, Rabbitohs 3.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.84 and Rabbitohs $2.00, with the line at Dolphins -1.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 6) | Dolphins 3 · Rabbitohs 3 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 32-10 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 106 for, 48 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-4 this season |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WLWW · 140 for, 93 against |
| Rabbitohs away | 5-7 this season |
| Market | Dolphins $1.84 · Rabbitohs $2.00 |
| Line | Dolphins -1.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 2W–7L | 22% |
| Rabbitohs | 9W–11L | 45% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Rabbitohs have won 9 of 20 games (45%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 2 from 9 (22%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Rabbitohs get a +1.0 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Dolphins's +0.0.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 33.6pts | Avg Score | 20.0pts |
| 42.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| -9.2pts | Avg Margin | -6.0pts |
| 1611.8m | Run Metres | 1570.0m |
| 7.6 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 310.2 | Tackles | 323.6 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 8.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R23 L · R24 L · R25 L · R26 W · R27 W | 33.6 |
| Rabbitohs | R22 L · R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R27 L | 20.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R11 | Rabbitohs | 10 – 32 | Dolphins |
| 2025 | R17 | Dolphins | 50 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R1 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 14 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R19 | Dolphins | 36 – 28 | Rabbitohs |
| 2023 | R7 | Dolphins | 14 – 36 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.5 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 16th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.46 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 14th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Johnston, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.38/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) | 0.63/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.5/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 11th) | 1.08/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.13/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 14th (weak)) | 1.46/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 9th | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 16 | 7 · 26 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 222m/g | 152m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 2.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.1% | 85.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 72 · 63 | 48 · 55 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 769m/g | 647m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.1/g | 12.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.2% | 77.7% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Rabbitohs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 17 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 488m/g | 498m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.4/g | 7.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 89.4% |

**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.23/g (lg 0.14) +64% · Five-Eighths 0.39/g (lg 0.27) +44% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Centres 0.88/g (lg 0.71) +24% · Halfbacks 0.27/g (lg 0.22) +23%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | no games | 14/10g (2·1·4·2·0·0·1·0·1·3) | 5/5g | 25/29g | 58% | — | 🏉 55' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | no games | 4/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/12g | 31/74g | 36% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | no games | 6/10g (0·1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 3/9g | 12/25g | 38% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | no games | 8/10g (1·1·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 3/10g | 24/61g | 50% | — | 🏉 51' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/9g | 28/48g | 28% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | no games | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 6/12g | 23/81g | 32% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 4/27g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tom Gilbert | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/16g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Kurt Donoghoe | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/18g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Thomas Flegler | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/55g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | no games | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/6g | 7/27g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 0/14g | 8% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/5g | 1/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Oryn Keeley | INT | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 2/13g | 17% | — | — |
| 16 | Felise Kaufusi | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/14g | 2/37g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Trai Fuller | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 4/9g | 30% | — | — |

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 28% | — | 🏉 35' |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | no games | 8/10g (4·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 17/21g | 50% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 13/16g | 32% | — | 🏉 15' 68' |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | no games | 5/10g (0·2·0·1·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/11g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 9/16g | 22% | — | 🏉 3' 33' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 14/21g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Ashton Ward | HB | no games | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 17% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/18g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/32g | 22% | — | — |
| 12 | Euan Aitken | 2R | no games | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 7/27g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | no games | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 14 | Peter Mamouzelos | INT | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Tallis Duncan | INT | no games | 8/10g (0·2·2·0·0·1·0·2·1·0) | 2/3g | 3/5g | 26% | — | — |
| 16 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/6g | 6% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 17 | Sean Keppie | RES | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/10g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1508 vs 1454), but the market favours Rabbitohs (@2.00). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1508 · Rabbitohs 1454 · ELO difference: 54 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Rabbitohs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1003 | 937 | Dolphins +65 |
| Backs | 1042 | 965 | Dolphins +77 |
| Halves | 1023 | 980 | Dolphins +43 |
| Hooker | 993 | 980 | Dolphins +14 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | — |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Dolphins |

**Model Confidence: 51%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 1 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-08 07:08 UTC (latest tip update)