# Bulldogs v Dragons — NRL Round 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 15 – 14 Dragons

_Bulldogs pip Dragons by a point._

Half time: 10 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 75% / Dragons 25% · Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas · Sun, 01 Mar, 03:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Jacob Preston (11' 1st), Jacob Kiraz (49') · Dragons: Emre Guler (14'), Setu Tu (58')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 75% | Won |
| Dragons | 25% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.8 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 2/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 4 Mar 2026, 08:19 am · Last updated: 4 Mar 2026, 09:12 am_

Bulldogs 15–14 Dragons in NRL Round 1 at Allegiant Stadium, Las Vegas. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Bulldogs winning by 7.8 points. They won by one. That's the gap between a good read and a photo finish, and it's worth sitting with before working through how it actually played out at Allegiant Stadium.

Bulldogs 15, Dragons 14, settled by a Stephen Crichton field goal in the 89th minute, deep into extra time. Take that one point away and this is a different conversation about the model missing badly. Instead it landed in the 1-12 margin band and went 2 from 4 on the wider markers, a fair return for a match decided in the last minute.

The shape of the game explains why Bulldogs went in as 75% favourites. Their forward pack, backs, halves and hooker were all rated stronger coming in, and that showed up where it mattered: 2,333 run metres to 1,752, 719 post-contact metres to 610, and five line breaks to one. Jacob Preston opened the scoring in the 10th minute, and Jacob Kiraz's try in the 49th put Bulldogs out to 14-8, the kind of scoreboard push you'd expect from the side with the bigger edge up front and out wide.

But the Dragons kept finding answers. Emre Guler levelled it at 6-6 in the 14th minute, and Setu Tu's try in the 58th brought it back to 14-12. That's not a side that folded under the collision numbers, it's one that stayed in touch despite them, and the completion rate explains how. Dragons finished at 88% with just six errors, well clear of the Bulldogs' 80% and ten errors. When you're being out-muscled up front, ball control is how you stay level, and the Dragons managed exactly that until the final minute.

Discipline was the other half of the story, and it cuts against the Dragons. Nine penalties conceded to three is a heavy concession, especially for a side controlling territory the way they were, kicking for 1,018 metres to the Bulldogs' 697.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 10 | 5 | 15 |
| Dragons | 8 | 6 | 14 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| 80% | Completion rate | **88%** |
| **2,333** | Run metres | 1,752 |
| **719** | Post-contact metres | 610 |
| **5** | Line breaks | 1 |
| 26 | Tackle breaks | **27** |
| **17** | Offloads | 9 |
| **90.7%** | Effective tackle % | 88.9% |
| 27 | Missed tackles | **26** |
| 10 | Errors | **6** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 697 | Kick metres | **1,018** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 7.8 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 2/4 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 14 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 4-2 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 14' Try — Emre Guler (Dragons) — 6-6 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 49' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 14-8 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 58' Try — Setu Tu (Dragons) — 14-12 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 89' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Stephen Crichton (Bulldogs) — 15-14 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.38 (edge +6.4%) — model probability 75.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Bulldogs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 40.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 8 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 75% to see off Dragons. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 73 ELO points clear, 1491 to 1418.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 6 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Bulldogs by 7.8, with the two sides combining for about 42. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Bulldogs have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 44-14 in 2026 Round 25.

Dragons have leaked 132 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

The market has Bulldogs favourites, Bulldogs $1.38 and Dragons $3.06, with the line at Bulldogs -7.5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 8 · Dragons 2 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 44-14 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | LWLL · 80 for, 94 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 7-5 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | WLLW · 72 for, 132 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Market | Bulldogs $1.38 · Dragons $3.06 |
| Line | Bulldogs -7.5 |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 16W–20L | 44% |
| Dragons | 15W–23L | 39% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Bulldogs 16W–20L (44%) and Dragons 15W–23L (39%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 18.4pts | Avg Score | 15.2pts |
| 24.0pts | Avg Conceded | 29.6pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | -14.4pts |
| 1652.2m | Run Metres | 1562.0m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 3.6 |
| 365.2 | Tackles | 392.2 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 8.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | R25 L · R26 W · R27 L · FW1 L · SF L | 18.4 |
| Dragons | R23 W · R24 L · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L | 15.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R25 | Dragons | 14 – 44 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R20 | Bulldogs | 20 – 18 | Dragons |
| 2025 | R1 | Dragons | 20 – 28 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R23 | Dragons | 10 – 28 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R12 | Bulldogs | 44 – 12 | Dragons |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 4th-ranked right edge attack (1.31 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 12th there (1.21 conceded/game). Key man: Preston, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the left edge: NRL's 9th-ranked left edge attack (1.21 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 7th there (1.12 conceded/game). Key man: Tuipulotu, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.92/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 7th) | 1.21/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.04/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.04/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.31/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.79/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.21/g (def 12th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 9 | 10 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 0.9/g |
| Run Metres | 205m/g | 155m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.9% | 88.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 10th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 46 · 50 | 55 · 61 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 757m/g | 723m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 13.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.2% | 81.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 15 | 10 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 448m/g | 483m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.5/g | 6.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 92.9% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · 2nd Rows 0.61/g (lg 0.46) +33% · Fullbacks 0.55/g (lg 0.42) +31%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.46) +2% · Wingers 1.29/g (lg 1.27) +2%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allegiant Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/11g | 0/0g | 12% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | no games | 7/10g (0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 3/4g | 0/0g | 46% | — | 🏉 49' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | no games | 3/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/5g | 0/0g | 34% | — | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/13g | 0/0g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Matt Burton | 5/8 | no games | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0) | 4/7g | 0/0g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Lachlan Galvin | HB | no games | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | HK | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Samuel Hughes | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 4/9g | 0/0g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | no games | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 36% | — | 🏉 11' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 7/12g | 0/1g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 17 | Josh Curran | INT | no games | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 12/20g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 2 | Christian Tuipulotu | WG | no games | 9/10g (1·3·1·0·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 4/4g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | no games | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 5/13g | 0/0g | 42% | — | — |
| 5 | Setu Tu | WG | no games | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0/0g | — | — | 🏉 58' |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | no games | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 0/0g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Daniel Atkinson | HB | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Emre Guler | PR | no games | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/0g | 8% | — | 🏉 14' |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Couchman | PR | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Luciano Leilua | 2R | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | no games | 4/10g (0·0·1·0·1·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/11g | 0/0g | 32% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Hame Sele | LK | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/0g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Josh Kerr | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Lawrie | RES | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/12g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Ryan Couchman | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1491 · Dragons 1418 · ELO difference: 73 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 985 | 954 | Bulldogs +31 |
| Backs | 1011 | 947 | Bulldogs +64 |
| Halves | 978 | 879 | Bulldogs +99 |
| Hooker | 1013 | 945 | Bulldogs +68 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Bulldogs |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-03-03 22:12 UTC (latest tip update)