Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 75% probability. The predicted margin of 7.8 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. The model went 2/4 on this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 29 points was 14 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 47% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Bulldogs
75%
Dragons
25%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 75%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Dragons. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 6 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Bulldogs carry a 73-point ELO rating advantage (1491 vs 1418). The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 7.8 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.38
Winner ✓
Edge
+6.4%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs -7.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Bulldogs 1-12 @2.55
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Over 40.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Bulldogs | R2025-R25L R2025-R26W R2025-R27L R2025-R28L R2025-R29L older → newer | 18.4 |
Dragons | R2025-R23W R2025-R24L R2025-R25L R2025-R26L R2025-R27L | 15.2 |
Avg Conceded
24.0
Bulldogs
29.6
Dragons
Avg Margin
-5.6
Bulldogs
-14.4
Dragons
Run Metres
1652
Bulldogs
1562
Dragons
Line Breaks
6.2
Bulldogs
3.6
Dragons
Referee Indicator
Favours BulldogsGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Bulldogs hold a 8-point edge: 16W–18L (47%) vs Dragons's 15W–23L (39%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Bulldogs get a +0.6 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dragons's -0.2.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
75%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 8 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: +7.8
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