NRL | Round 1

alphr.com.au

BRI
Broncos
VS
PEN
Panthers
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • FRIDAY 6 MAR, 8:00 PM

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

56%BroncosFavourite

Broncos

56%

Panthers

44%

✨

AI Match Overview

Broncos hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Panthers are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1555 vs 1535). Recent form favours Broncos with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Broncos by 4.1 points with a combined total of 40.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Broncos to Win @1.70

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.2%

✗

Line / Spread

Broncos -2.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Margin Band

Broncos 1-12 @2.55

Lost ✗

Edge

+0.0%

✗

Total Points

Under 40.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+0.0%

✓

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Broncos
WWWWW
36.2
Panthers
WWWLL
26.0

Avg Conceded

22.4

Broncos

20.4

Panthers

Avg Margin

13.8

Broncos

5.6

Panthers

Run Metres

1801

Broncos

1665

Panthers

Line Breaks

8.0

Broncos

5.0

Panthers

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Panthers
Adam Gee287 games since 2013

Each team's win rate when Adam Gee refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

BRI
46%17W 20L
PEN
68%26W 12L

When Adam Gee officiates, Panthers have won 26 of 38 games (68%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Broncos's 17 from 37 (46%). That's a 22‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 42.7 pts, sitting close to the league average. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg), which could give Broncos an additional edge at home.

Avg Total

42.7 pts

Home Win %

57%

Home Bias

Leans home

H2H History (Last 5)Panthers lead 4-1
Oct 2025BRI 16 - 14 PEN
May 2025BRI 8 - 32 PEN
Jul 2024BRI 6 - 14 PEN
Mar 2024BRI 12 - 34 PEN
May 2023BRI 4 - 15 PEN
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

BRI
1555Overall1535
PEN
ELO difference: +20 in favour of Broncos

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1051Forwards1027
BRI +24
1022Backs1060
PEN +38
1067Halves1060
Even
1090Hooker1003
BRI +87

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

BRI
Stat
PEN
5.0
Wins (Last 5)
3.0
36.2pts
Avg Score
26.0pts
22.4pts
Avg Conceded
20.4pts
13.8pts
Avg Margin
5.6pts
1801.2m
Run Metres
1665.4m
8.0
Line Breaks
5.0
300.0
Tackles
300.0
12.0
Errors
12.0

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Broncos
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Broncos
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Broncos
4
Halves Control9.0%
Broncos
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Broncos
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
Broncos
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Broncos

Model Confidence

56%

Broncos predicted to win by 4 points

Predicted total: 40 · Line: +4.1

1/4 match predictions correct
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