Win Probability
AI Game Review
Panthers defied the model's 56% prediction for Broncos, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. Panthers led 0–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 1/4 on this match. The under 40.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 26 points was 17 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Panthers's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Panthers have a 70% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Broncos
56%
Panthers
44%
AI Match Overview
Broncos hold the advantage at 56% win probability, though Panthers are far from out of this at 44%. The model sees Broncos ahead on 7 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Broncos carry a 20-point ELO rating advantage (1555 vs 1535). Recent form favours Broncos with 5 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Panthers. The margin model predicts Broncos by 4.1 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
Each market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Broncos to Win @1.70
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.2%
Line / Spread
Broncos -2.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Margin Band
Broncos 1-12 @2.55
Lost ✗
Edge
+0.0%
Total Points
Under 40.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+0.0%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Broncos | R2025-R25W R2025-R26W R2025-R27W R2025-R28W R2025-R30W older → newer | 31.8 |
Panthers | R2025-R26L R2025-R27W R2025-R28W R2025-R29W R2025-R30L | 25.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.6
Broncos
19.6
Panthers
Avg Margin
12.2
Broncos
6.0
Panthers
Run Metres
1796
Broncos
1676
Panthers
Line Breaks
7.2
Broncos
5.2
Panthers
Referee Indicator
Favours PanthersAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Adam Gee officiates, Panthers have won 28 of 40 games (70%), significantly stronger than Broncos's 17 from 39 (44%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Panthers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Broncos's -1.5. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
56%
Broncos predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: +4.1
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