# Panthers v Knights — NRL Preliminary Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 14 – 22 Knights

_Knights roar back to lay siege to Panthers from 8 down._

Half time: 14 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 75% / Knights 25% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 27 Sept, 04:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Blaize Talagi (12'), Lindsay Smith (38') · Knights: Francis Manuleleua (7' 1st), Dominic Young (42' Tipped ⚡), Sandon Smith (59'), Sandon Smith (80')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 75% | Lost |
| Knights | 25% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 12.9 predicted → 8 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Preliminary Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2026, 08:16 pm · Last updated: 27 Sept 2026, 06:02 pm_

Panthers 14–22 Knights in NRL Preliminary Finals at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Knights have advanced to the NRL Grand Final after defeating minor premiers Penrith Panthers 22-14 at Accor Stadium. Newcastle trailed 14-6 at half-time and played the final 45 minutes with 12 men after Phoenix Crossland was sent off for a hip-drop tackle in the 35th minute. Despite the numerical disadvantage, the Knights outscored the Panthers 16-8 from that point.

The Knights' victory was an upset, as Alphr's model had favoured the Panthers by 12.9 points, with a 75% win probability. The Knights' win puts them into their first Grand Final since their 2001 premiership, where they will face the Roosters. They are the first team from outside the top four to reach a grand final since 2017. Knights coach Justin Holbrook, in his first season, was an assistant to Trent Robinson at the Roosters before taking the job.

The match saw a significant turn in the 35th minute when Knights hooker Phoenix Crossland was sent off for a hip-drop tackle on Nathan Cleary. Referee Gerard Sutton told Crossland, "there's extreme risk of serious injury, you're off." This was the first send-off for a hip drop in NRL history. At the time of the send-off, the score was 6-6. Crossland had won the Knights' 2026 Danny Buderus Medal as their player of the year.

Panthers suffered a series of injuries throughout the game. Nathan Cleary, who started on the bench with a stress-related bone injury in his right foot, came on after 25 minutes. He was hurt about 10 minutes later while attacking the Knights line, suffering a compound fracture and dislocation of his left ankle. Cleary was taken off on the medicab and went straight to hospital for surgery. Ivan Cleary stated that Cleary's right foot is also broken and needs surgery, and the injury is likely to rule him out of the World Cup. Panthers centre Blaize Talagi went down untouched in the second half and left the field with a torn Achilles. Ivan Cleary also confirmed that Dylan Edwards tore his PCL in the first half and Isaah Yeo played with a torn pectoral.

The Knights opened the scoring in the 7th minute with a try from Francis Manuleleua, converted by Sandon Smith, making it 0-4. Blaize Talagi responded for the Panthers in the 12th minute, with Dylan Edwards converting, bringing the score to 4-6. After Crossland's send-off, Blaize Talagi kicked a penalty goal in the 36th minute, giving Panthers an 8-6 lead. Lindsay Smith then scored a try for the Panthers in the 38th minute, converted by Blaize Talagi, to make the half-time score 14-6.

The Knights began their comeback in the second half. Dominic Young scored a try in the 42nd minute, though Sandon Smith missed the conversion, making it 14-10. Sandon Smith then scored his first try in the 59th minute. This came from a quick tap after Billy Phillips was penalised for a high shot on Fletcher Sharpe. With Phillips and Moses Leota turned away, Smith tapped and ran 50 metres to score under the posts, converting his own try to level the scores at 14-14. In the final minute, Sandon Smith intercepted a Liam Martin pass and ran almost the length of the field to score, converting his own try to seal the 14-22 victory.

The Panthers had more possession, 55% to 45%, and ran for 1,965 metres compared to the Knights' 1,493. They also had more post-contact metres, 599 to 411, and broke 38 tackles to 30. Panthers also produced 9 offloads to the Knights' 2. However, the Knights were more efficient with the ball, completing at 81% to the Panthers' 76% and committing 9 errors compared to Penrith's 14. The Knights also created more attacking opportunities, with 4 line breaks to Penrith's 2. Their kicking game controlled territory, with 674 kick metres compared to Penrith's 349. The Knights conceded 6 penalties to the Panthers' 3.

The Knights' win was their first grand final appearance since their 2001 premiership. They finished last in 2025 and seventh in 2026. Before this game, Panthers had won 9 of their last 10 against Knights. Panthers went out at the preliminary-final stage for the second year in a row. The crowd for the match was 57,102.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 14 | 0 | 14 |
| Knights | 6 | 16 | 22 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| 76% | Completion rate | **81%** |
| **1,965** | Run metres | 1,493 |
| **599** | Post-contact metres | 411 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **4** |
| **38** | Tackle breaks | 30 |
| **9** | Offloads | 2 |
| **91.2%** | Effective tackle % | 88.7% |
| **30** | Missed tackles | 39 |
| 14 | Errors | **9** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 6 |
| 349 | Kick metres | **674** |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 75% prediction for Panthers, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 12.9 but the actual margin was 8 points. Total score prediction of 37 was close to the actual 36, within 1 points. Knights trailed 14–6 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 14–22. The model went 2/17 on this match. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (406 career games). The combined score of 36 points was 6 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Knights bucked the trend, Panthers historically win 55% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Knights prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Francis Manuleleua (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 11' Try — Blaize Talagi (Panthers) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 38' Try — Lindsay Smith (Panthers) — 12-6 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 41' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -13 pts
- 58' Try — Sandon Smith (Knights) — 14-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 79' Try — Sandon Smith (Knights) — 14-20 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.29 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 75.1% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Panthers here: 75% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 139 ELO points clear, 1676 to 1538. Form leans Panthers' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Knights.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 3 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Panthers by 12.9, with the two sides combining for about 37. Panthers to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 22-14 in 2026 Round 30.

Panthers are 11-3 at home this year.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.29 and Knights $3.66, with the line at Panthers -10.5 and the total at 42.5.

Panthers come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 16.5 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Knights 2 |
| Last meeting | Knights 22-14 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-3 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights away | 9-7 this season |
| Market | Panthers $1.29 · Knights $3.66 |
| Line | Panthers -10.5 · total 42.5 |
| Rest gap | Panthers 13d · Knights 6d |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 16.5 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Gerard Sutton** — 406 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 37W–30L | 55% |
| Knights | 17W–18L | 49% |

Avg total: 41.5 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Panthers hold a 6-point edge: 37W–30L (55%) vs Knights's 17W–18L (49%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 10.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 1719.6m | Run Metres | 1595.4m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 7.4 |
| 361.8 | Tackles | 340.8 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · FW1 W | 21.8 |
| Knights | R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · FW1 W · SF W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Knights | 12 – 44 | Panthers | Panthers 65% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | Knights | 12 – 48 | Panthers | not priced |
| 2025 | R12 | Panthers | 6 – 25 | Knights | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Panthers | 22 – 14 | Knights | not priced |
| 2024 | R15 | Knights | 18 – 26 | Panthers | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in the one decided meeting it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.84 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.04 conceded/game). Key man: Edwards, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.35 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.84 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 22 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.8/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.73/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.84/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 11th) · concedes 2.04/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.08/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.35/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 12 | 15 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 190m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 76 · 35 | 76 · 57 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 859m/g | 751m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.6/g | 21.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 74.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 13 | 23 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 527m/g | 484m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.22) +32% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.47) -2% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18% · Fullbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.41) -27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 12 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/10g | 5/18g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 30 in 25g | 8/10g (3·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 2/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 54% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Blaize Talagi | CE | 5 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/4g | 14% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 11 in 19g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·0) | 3/4g | 0/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 16 in 23g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·1) | 8/9g | 13/16g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Jack Cole | 5/8 | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 7% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | INT | 6 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 6/19g | 26% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/14g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | INT | 3 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/9g | 14% | — | 🏉 38' |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | INT | 3 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 3/16g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 8 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/7g | 4/15g | 30% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/25g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Jack Cogger | HB | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/19g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | PR | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 22 in 25g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·1·1) | 2/10g | 6/6g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 46% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 42' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 6 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 5/26g | 15/41g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 5/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 15% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 24 in 25g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·0·2·1·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 13 in 24g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/6g | 6% | — | 🏉 59' 80' |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 7/24g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 3 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 4 in 22g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — | 🏉 7' |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/3g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Lucas | INT | 10 in 17g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/5g | 42% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1676 · Knights 1538 · ELO difference: 139 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1113 | 1003 | Panthers +109 |
| Backs | 1037 | 1071 | Knights +35 |
| Halves | 1172 | 1170 | Panthers +1 |
| Hooker | 820 | 919 | Knights +98 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 39.6% | Panthers |
| 2 | Halves Control | 13.0% | — |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 12.4% | Panthers |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 7.1% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 5.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Panthers predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 08:02 UTC (latest tip update)