# Panthers v Knights — NRL Preliminary Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Who will win Panthers v Knights?

Alphr's NRL model makes Panthers a clear 75% favourite over Knights in Preliminary Finals. Predicted result: Panthers by 13 in a low-scoring game (37 total, under the 42.5 line). **Confidence: High.** Panthers lead on Team ELO, Forward Pack and Recent Win Rate. The standout value sits in the try-scorer market — Fletcher Sharpe leads at +15.7% edge.

_Alphr NRL Model v1.0 · 61.5% head-to-head accuracy across 213 verified 2025 predictions · full record at https://alphr.com.au/accuracy. Every pick published before kick-off, never edited._

### Panthers v Knights
Sun, 27 Sept, 04:00 pm AEST · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Preliminary Finals

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.29 (edge +1.2%) — model probability 75.1%
- **Line / Spread:** Panthers -10.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 13 · Predicted total: 37

### Match Preview

**Penrith Panthers vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Preliminary Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2026, 08:16 pm_

Panthers meet Knights in NRL Preliminary Finals at Accor Stadium, Sydney. The model makes Panthers the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The model has the Panthers at 75% to handle the Knights. That is a solid call, backed by a 139-point ELO gap: Panthers on 1676, Knights lagging at 1538. The Panthers have won 4 of their last 5, while the Knights have managed 3. Not a huge gap, but it is there.

In terms of positional strength, the Panthers forward pack is a powerhouse, rated 1113 against the Knights 1003. The Panthers halves are just a smidge better too, 1172 to 1170. The Knights have the edge in the backline, 1071 to 1037, but it is not enough to tip the scales.

History is on the Panthers side. They have won 9 of their last 10 against the Knights, including a 44-12 thumping in Round 8 at McDonald Jones Stadium. At Accor, it is tighter: Panthers 5, Knights 3 in the last eight meetings. Still, Panthers have the best winning record at Accor since 2019, taking 71% of their games there.

Form-wise, the Panthers are cruising. They have scored 103 and conceded just 46 in their last four games. The Knights, on the other hand, have let in 110 while scoring 88. That is a defensive gap the Panthers should exploit. Panthers have also been fast starters all season, outscoring opponents by 260 points in first halves. A quick start here could be decisive.

With the Panthers finishing first in the regular season and the Knights seventh, there is a clear ladder gap. Plus, the Panthers have a perfect record in Sunday games this year. The Knights have had their moments, but they have also been on the wrong end of heavy losses four times this season.

Nathan Cleary leads the Panthers, with Kalyn Ponga captaining the Knights. Casey McLean hits his 50th NRL game on Sunday. The Panthers have had a 13-day break, which could be a factor against the Knights 6-day turnaround. Gerard Sutton is the ref, averaging 16.5 penalties a game. The Panthers win 55% of games under him, the Knights 49%.

The model predicts the Panthers to win by nearly 13 points, with a combined total of 37. The market has Panthers at $1.29, Knights at $3.66. The line is set at Panthers -10.5, with the model seeing a slight edge of +1.2% on the Panthers head-to-head price.

For the Knights to upset the odds, they will need to punch above their weight, especially in defence. But with the numbers where they are, the model is sticking with the Panthers.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 9 · Knights 1 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 44-12 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWW · 103 for, 46 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-2 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLWW · 88 for, 110 against |
| Knights away | 8-6 this season |
| Market | Panthers $1.29 · Knights $3.66 |
| Line | Panthers -10.5 · total 42.5 |
| Rest gap | Panthers 13d · Knights 6d |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 16.5 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

**Anytime Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $3.20 — model probability 46.9% (edge +15.7%)
- Casey McLean @ $2.45 — model probability 56.0% (edge +15.2%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $2.60 — model probability 47.2% (edge +8.7%)
- Dominic Young @ $2.60 — model probability 45.5% (edge +7.1%)
- Dylan Edwards @ $3.05 — model probability 36.6% (edge +3.8%)
- Thomas Jenkins @ $1.89 — model probability 54.0% (edge +1.1%)
**First Try Scorer picks:**
- Fletcher Sharpe @ $13.00 — model probability 6.7% (edge -1.0%)
- Greg Marzhew @ $11.00 — model probability 6.7% (edge -2.4%)
- Dominic Young @ $11.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -2.7%)
- Casey McLean @ $10.00 — model probability 6.4% (edge -3.6%)
- Dylan Edwards @ $13.00 — model probability 3.5% (edge -4.1%)

### Referee Indicator — Favours Panthers

**Gerard Sutton** — 406 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 37W–30L | 55% |
| Knights | 17W–18L | 49% |

Avg total: 41.5 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Panthers hold a 6-point edge: 37W–30L (55%) vs Knights's 17W–18L (49%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 21.8pts | Avg Score | 24.8pts |
| 11.6pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 10.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.4pts |
| 1719.6m | Run Metres | 1595.4m |
| 5.0 | Line Breaks | 7.4 |
| 361.8 | Tackles | 340.8 |
| 10.8 | Errors | 12.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · FW1 W | 21.8 |
| Knights | R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · FW1 W · SF W | 24.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R8 | Knights | 12 – 44 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R23 | Knights | 12 – 48 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R12 | Panthers | 6 – 25 | Knights |
| 2024 | R22 | Panthers | 22 – 14 | Knights |
| 2024 | R15 | Knights | 18 – 26 | Panthers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.84 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 17th there (2.04 conceded/game). Key man: Edwards, 12 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.35 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.84 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 22 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.8/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.64/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.73/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.84/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 12th) · concedes 2.04/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.08/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.84/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.35/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 12 | 15 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 190m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.2/g | 4.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 76 · 35 | 76 · 57 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 859m/g | 751m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.6/g | 21.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.6/g | 4.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 74.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 13 | 23 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 527m/g | 484m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.22) +32% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.47) -2% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18% · Centres 0.53/g (lg 0.72) -26%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 12 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 6/10g | 5/18g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 37% Great value +3.8%; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 4% Market priced |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 30 in 25g | 8/10g (3·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/4g | 2/3g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.89 AI 54% Fair odds |
| 3 | Blaize Talagi | CE | 5 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/4g | 2/4g | 14% | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 11 in 19g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·3·0) | 3/4g | 0/4g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 56% Great value +15.2%; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 16 in 23g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·1·1) | 8/9g | 13/16g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 42% Market priced |
| 6 | Jack Cole | 5/8 | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 7% | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 6 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 8/12g | 6/19g | 26% | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/20g | 4% | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/14g | 0% | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 3 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 1/9g | 14% | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 3 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/15g | 3/16g | 20% | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 8 in 17g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2·0·1) | 0/7g | 4/15g | 30% | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/16g | 1/25g | 8% | — |
| 14 | Jack Cogger | INT | 1 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 4/19g | 6% | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/12g | 4% | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | INT | 4 in 16g | 4/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/4g | 22% | — |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 9% | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 17g | 4/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/7g | 18% | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 22 in 25g | 8/10g (0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1·1·1) | 2/10g | 6/6g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 46% Great value +7.1%; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 6 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0) | 5/26g | 15/41g | 18% | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 16g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/8g | 5/6g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 15% Market priced |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 24 in 25g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·0·2·1·2·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 47% Great value +8.7%; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 13 in 24g | 6/10g (0·0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·1) | 2/4g | 1/4g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 47% Great value +15.7%; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% Market priced |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/6g | 6% | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 7/24g | 4% | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 3 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/6g | 8% | — |
| 10 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 4 in 22g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 18% | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 13% | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/7g | 6% | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/3g | 11% | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 11g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 17g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 0% | — |
| 17 | Dylan Lucas | INT | 10 in 17g | 7/10g (1·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/5g | 42% | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1676 · Knights 1538 · ELO difference: 139 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1113 | 1003 | Panthers +109 |
| Backs | 1037 | 1071 | Knights +35 |
| Halves | 1172 | 1170 | Panthers +1 |
| Hooker | 820 | 919 | Knights +98 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 39.6% | Panthers |
| 2 | Halves Control | 13.0% | — |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 12.4% | Panthers |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 7.1% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 5.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 75%** — Panthers predicted to win by 13 points · Predicted total: 37 pts

### Common questions

**What's the predicted score?** A low-scoring Panthers win, around 25–12 (total ~37 — under the 42.5 line).

**Who's most likely to score first?** Greg Marzhew (6.7%), then Fletcher Sharpe (6.7%).

**Will it be high-scoring?** Unlikely — the model leans under the 42.5 line (model projects 37). Referee Gerard Sutton's games average 41.5.

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-22 10:16 UTC (latest tip update)