# Dolphins v Roosters — NRL Preliminary Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Dolphins 20 – 36 Roosters

_Roosters strut past Dolphins._

Half time: 6 – 16 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Dolphins 62% / Roosters 38% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 25 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Dolphins: Jamayne Isaako (33' Tipped ⚡), Jamayne Isaako (42' Tipped ⚡), Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (74'), Herbie Farnworth (76' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (17' 1st), Victor Radley (23'), Daniel Tupou (26' Tipped ⚡), Robert Toia (46' Tipped ⚡), Lindsay Collins (54'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (57' 1st), Sam Walker (66')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 62% | Lost |
| Roosters | 38% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 5.1 predicted → 16 actual · Markets hit: 0/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Preliminary Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2026, 08:16 pm · Last updated: 25 Sept 2026, 09:47 pm_

Dolphins 20–36 Roosters in NRL Preliminary Finals at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Roosters broke the Dolphins’ line eight times to their four, a statistical edge that underpinned a 36-20 victory in the NRL Preliminary Final at Suncorp Stadium. That number told the story before the final score did. The win puts the Roosters into the 2026 NRL Grand Final against Knights at Accor Stadium on Sunday 4 October, their first grand final since their 2019 premiership. They are chasing the club's 16th premiership.

The turning point arrived with the Dolphins on the attack and threatening to score. Herbie Farnworth hesitated with a pass, allowing Mark Nawaqanitawase to intercept on his own 10-metre line. He ran the length of the field for a try, a moment Kristian Woolf later described as one the Dolphins "didn't quite recover" from. Nawaqanitawase had already opened the scoring for the Roosters in the 17th minute, and his second try in the 57th minute was part of a decisive 20-point unanswered run for the Roosters in the second half.

The Roosters’ overall attacking potency was clear. Beyond the line breaks, they made 602 post-contact metres to the Dolphins’ 512, and their players busted 45 tackles compared to 33 for the Dolphins. This pressure told on the Dolphins’ defence, which missed 45 tackles to the Roosters’ 33. The Roosters also won the overall metres battle, running 1,788 to 1,549.

Despite equal possession and completion rates of 83% each, the Roosters were more clinical. Mark Nawaqanitawase was a standout performer, running for 329 metres and breaking five tackles. He will now play his final rugby league game in the Grand Final before returning to rugby union. Daniel Tupou also contributed to the Roosters’ tally, scoring his 198th career try. Sam Walker, returning from a syndesmosis injury, scored a try and was brought off early as a precaution, though Trent Robinson confirmed his fitness for the decider.

The Roosters established a strong lead early, scoring 16 unanswered points between the 17th and 26th minutes through Nawaqanitawase, Victor Radley, and Daniel Tupou. The Dolphins responded with a Jamayne Isaako try in the 33rd minute, closing the half at 16-6. Isaako scored again early in the second half, narrowing the margin to 16-10, but the Roosters then unleashed a 20-point scoring spree between the 46th and 66th minutes, with tries to Robert Toia, Lindsay Collins, Nawaqanitawase, and Sam Walker, extending their lead to 36-10.

The Dolphins managed late tries through Kulikefu Finefeuiaki and Herbie Farnworth, but it was not enough. Jamayne Isaako’s two tries saw him become only the fourth player to score 300 points in a season. Isaiya Katoa played on with an ankle injury, which Kristian Woolf later admitted hindered him. The Dolphins had entered the match with superior form over their last five games, winning all five with an average margin of 13.6 points, compared to the Roosters' one win and three losses with an average margin of -3.2 points.

The Alphr model had predicted a Dolphins win by 5.1 points, giving them a 62% win probability. The Roosters defied that read, producing a 16-point margin. The model went 4/17 on this match. The Roosters now face the Knights in the Grand Final, chasing the club's 16th premiership. Trent Robinson, aiming for his fourth premiership, noted the focus remains on winning, not just making the final.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 6 | 14 | 20 |
| Roosters | 16 | 20 | 36 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Dolphins | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 83% | Completion rate | 83% |
| 1,549 | Run metres | **1,788** |
| 512 | Post-contact metres | **602** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 33 | Tackle breaks | **45** |
| **10** | Offloads | 5 |
| 87.0% | Effective tackle % | **88.6%** |
| 45 | Missed tackles | **33** |
| 11 | Errors | **10** |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 593 | Kick metres | **632** |

**Model Report Card**

Roosters defied the model's 62% prediction for Dolphins, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 5.1 but the actual margin was 16 points. The model went 4/17 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (311 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Roosters have a 66% win rate under this referee. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Roosters prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 17' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 23' Try — Victor Radley (Roosters) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 26' Try — Daniel Tupou (Roosters) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 33' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 4-16 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 42' Try — Jamayne Isaako (Dolphins) — 10-16 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 45' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 10-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 54' Try — Lindsay Collins (Roosters) — 10-26 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 56' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 10-32 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 66' Try — Sam Walker (Roosters) — 10-36 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 74' Try — Kulikefu Finefeuiaki (Dolphins) — 14-36 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 76' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 18-36 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.63 (edge +4.2%) — model probability 62.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 5 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Dolphins are the call at 62%, but Roosters stay live at 38%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Dolphins sit 99 ELO points clear, 1702 to 1604. Form leans Dolphins' way: 5 from their last 5, against 1 for Roosters.

Dolphins own the matchup too, leading 3 of 5 factors including Team ELO, Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality. The margin model has Dolphins by 5.1, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Dolphins, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Roosters have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 36-20 in 2026 Round 30.

Roosters have won 3 straight. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Dolphins 5, Roosters 6.

The market has Dolphins favourites, Dolphins $1.63 and Roosters $2.27, with the line at Dolphins -3.5 and the total at 44.5.

Dolphins come in fresher, 13 days between games against 6.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 16.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Dolphins 3 · Roosters 5 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 36-20 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-5 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Market | Dolphins $1.63 · Roosters $2.27 |
| Line | Dolphins -3.5 · total 44.5 |
| Rest gap | Dolphins 13d · Roosters 6d |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.0 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Adam Gee** — 311 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 7W–9L | 44% |
| Roosters | 29W–15L | 66% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 29 of 44 games (66%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 7 from 16 (44%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Roosters get a +-0.7 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.4pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 1757.0m | Run Metres | 1584.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 377.8 | Tackles | 377.4 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · FW1 W | 26.4 |
| Roosters | R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 L · SF W | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Roosters | 12 – 26 | Dolphins | Roosters 62% ✗ |
| 2026 | R15 | Dolphins | 48 – 10 | Roosters | Dolphins 59% ✓ |
| 2025 | R23 | Dolphins | 12 – 64 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2025 | R9 | Roosters | 36 – 26 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2024 | R22 | Dolphins | 34 – 40 | Roosters | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.72 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 8th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 3rd there (0.96 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.72/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.56/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.36/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 14 | 19 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 174m/g | 186m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 84 · 52 | 83 · 56 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 865m/g | 718m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.7/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.5% | 81.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 17 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 468m/g | 544m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.28) +18% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.41) +0%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 14 in 20g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2·1) | 6/10g | 30/39g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 69% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 21 in 25g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 44/85g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 54% ✓ Scored | 🏉 33' 42' |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 11/25g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 33% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 14 in 24g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·1) | 4/8g | 31/72g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 60% ✓ Scored | 🏉 76' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 18 in 19g | 13/10g (1·2·2·0·2·1·1·1·2·1) | 6/9g | 36/58g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 77% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 25/91g | 26% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/37g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/65g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 5/37g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/26g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Max Plath | 2R | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 5/21g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/24g | 8% | — | 🏉 74' |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/24g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 2/35g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/26g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 6 in 23g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 11/37g | 26% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·2·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 7/22g | 40% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 14 in 16g | 10/10g (2·1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0·1) | 4/5g | 8/20g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 12 in 16g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 37% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 14 in 22g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 3/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 36% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 46' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 18 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 5/3g | 5/4g | 46% | — | 🏉 17' 57' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 7 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 6/22g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 10 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 4/12g | 24% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 14% | — | 🏉 54' |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 3 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 25g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 5/16g | 10% | — | 🏉 23' |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 3/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Angus Crichton | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/18g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/18g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | RES | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/18g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1702 · Roosters 1604 · ELO difference: 99 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1058 | 1126 | Roosters +67 |
| Backs | 1132 | 1048 | Dolphins +84 |
| Halves | 1160 | 1333 | Roosters +173 |
| Hooker | 1080 | 959 | Dolphins +121 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 35.6% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 10.3% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 7.7% | Roosters |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 4.6% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Rest Days | 2.1% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-25 11:47 UTC (latest tip update)