# Dolphins v Roosters — NRL Preliminary Finals 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

### Dolphins v Roosters
Fri, 25 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Preliminary Finals

**The model's call**
- **Head to Head:** Dolphins to win @ $1.63 (edge +4.2%) — model probability 62.4%
- **Line / Spread:** Dolphins -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- **Margin Band:** Dolphins 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%)
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%)
- Predicted margin: Dolphins by 5 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview

**Redcliffe Dolphins vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Preliminary Finals 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 22 Sept 2026, 08:16 pm_

Dolphins meet Roosters in NRL Preliminary Finals at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. The model makes Dolphins the favourite. Here's the read, the win probabilities and the value it's flagging.

The call here is Dolphins at 62%, Roosters given 38%, and the model's not shy about why. Team ELO has Dolphins 99 points clear, 1702 to 1604, and that gap sits alongside Recent Win Rate and Backline Quality as the three factors doing the heavy lifting. Forward Pack goes the other way, to the Roosters. Rest Days is a wash on paper, even though the actual numbers underneath it are anything but even, more on that shortly.

Break down the positions and the picture gets interesting. Roosters have the bigger forward pack, 1126 to 1058, and a genuine edge in the halves, 1333 to 1160. That's real. But Dolphins hit back hard everywhere else: backs 1132 to 1048, and hooker 1080 to 959, which is not a close contest. The model's read is that a stronger spine at dummy half and out the back outweighs a Roosters forward and halves edge, especially with the form line sitting the way it does.

History's mostly split but recent trend is one-way traffic. Across the last 7 meetings it's Roosters 4, Dolphins 3, so nothing in it long-run. But this year the Dolphins have flogged them twice, 48-10 in Round 15 and 26-12 in Round 26, the most recent meeting at Allianz Stadium. Hosting record here is even too, 2 apiece in the last 4 at this venue. Except the Dolphins have now won 8 straight at Suncorp Stadium, so home comfort is trending firmly in their favour regardless of what the ledger says over a longer stretch.

Form is where this really tilts. Dolphins are 5 from 5, riding an 8-game winning streak, 18-7 for the season. Roosters are 1 from 5, 17-9 overall, and just squeaked a win over Sharks 46-10 last start after a rough patch. Scoring tells the story too: Dolphins averaging 26.4 points a game and conceding just 12.8 over their last five, Roosters going 22.8 for and 26 against. Dolphins have scored at least 20 in 8 straight and won 13 of 14 games they've led at half-time. Roosters have actually won all 12 they've led at half-time, so if they get in front, they know how to hold it. The problem is getting there against a Dolphins side that's outscored opponents by 178 points after the break this season, the best mark in the competition.

There's plenty on the line. This is a top-four dress rehearsal that matters: Dolphins finished 3rd at 17-7, Roosters 4th at 16-8, third meeting of the year between them.

Isaiya Katoa leads the Dolphins, James Tedesco the Roosters. Rest is lopsided even if the model calls the factor even: Dolphins have had 13 days to recover, Roosters just 6 off a midweek turnaround. Referee Adam Gee is whistle-happy at 16.0 penalties a game across 311 games, with home teams winning 58% under him. His own numbers favour Roosters strangely enough, 66% wins in 44 games against Dolphins' 44% in 16, though that's history, not a script for Friday.

Shape-wise, the model's landed on Dolphins by 5.1, with a combined total near 41. That sits under the market's total line of 44.5, hence the model leaning Under there. The line in the market has Dolphins at -3.5, priced $1.91, and the head-to-head has Dolphins at $1.63 against Roosters at $2.27. The model reckons there's a 4.2% edge on the Dolphins side of that head-to-head price. Margin market has Dolphins at $2.55, though that one's a straight pick with no priced edge attached.

For Roosters to flip this, the forward pack and halves edge need to actually show up on the scoreboard early, because if it turns into a slog past half-time, the numbers say the Dolphins pull away. Line-ball it isn't, not with an 8-game streak and a 99-point ratings gap in the mix. But 38% isn't nothing either, and Roosters have form doing exactly what favourites hate: winning ugly, then finding out how to hold a lead when they get one.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 7) | Dolphins 3 · Roosters 4 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 26-12 |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 110 for, 64 against |
| Dolphins at home | 8-4 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LLLW · 90 for, 105 against |
| Roosters away | 8-5 this season |
| Market | Dolphins $1.63 · Roosters $2.27 |
| Line | Dolphins -3.5 · total 44.5 |
| Rest gap | Dolphins 13d · Roosters 6d |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 16.0 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Adam Gee** — 311 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | 7W–9L | 44% |
| Roosters | 29W–15L | 66% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 29 of 44 games (66%), significantly stronger than Dolphins's 7 from 16 (44%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Roosters get a +-0.8 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.3. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Dolphins | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 1.0 |
| 26.4pts | Avg Score | 22.8pts |
| 12.8pts | Avg Conceded | 26.0pts |
| 13.6pts | Avg Margin | -3.2pts |
| 1757.0m | Run Metres | 1584.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 6.4 |
| 377.8 | Tackles | 377.4 |
| 12.4 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Dolphins | R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W · FW1 W | 26.4 |
| Roosters | R25 L · R26 L · R27 L · FW1 L · SF W | 22.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Roosters | 12 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R15 | Dolphins | 48 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R23 | Dolphins | 12 – 64 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R9 | Roosters | 36 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2024 | R22 | Dolphins | 34 – 40 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.72 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 8th there (1.27 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 18 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 3rd there (0.96 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 18 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.72/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.04/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.27/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.56/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.48/g (def 6th (strong)) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.42/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.36/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 2/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 14 | 19 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.7/g |
| Run Metres | 174m/g | 186m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.2/g | 3.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.3% | 87.7% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 84 · 52 | 83 · 56 |
| Try Assists | 1.6/g | 2.2/g |
| Run Metres | 865m/g | 718m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 21.7/g | 17.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.5% | 81.8% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Dolphins | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 17 | 13 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 468m/g | 544m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.4/g | 9.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.28) +18% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.41) +0%
**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.12/g (lg 0.1) +20% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 14 in 20g | 7/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2·1) | 6/10g | 30/39g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 69% Great value +23.8%; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 8% Market priced |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 21 in 25g | 7/10g (1·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·0·0) | 7/14g | 44/85g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 54% Great value +5.2% |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 6 in 15g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 1/4g | 11/25g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 33% Market priced |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 14 in 24g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·1·1) | 4/8g | 31/72g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 60% Great value +14.9% |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 18 in 19g | 13/10g (1·2·2·0·2·1·1·1·2·1) | 6/9g | 36/58g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.93 AI 77% Great value +25.0%; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 10% AI's first pick — no price edge |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/19g | 25/91g | 26% | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 21g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 5/37g | 10% | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/65g | 14% | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/12g | 5/37g | 16% | — |
| 10 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/26g | 6% | — |
| 11 | Max Plath | 2R | 4 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 2/2g | 5/21g | 24% | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/24g | 8% | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/11g | 3% | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 2 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/24g | 12% | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 2/35g | 16% | — |
| 16 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 0/26g | 2% | — |
| 17 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 6 in 23g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 11/37g | 26% | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 12 in 19g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·0·3·2·0·0·1) | 2/6g | 7/22g | 40% | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 14 in 16g | 10/10g (2·1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0·1) | 4/5g | 8/20g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.18 AI 44% Market priced; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 6% Market priced |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 12 in 16g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·2·0·2·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 5/6g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 37% Great value +8.4%; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 5% Market priced |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 14 in 22g | 7/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1) | 3/3g | 3/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 36% Fair odds; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 5% Market priced |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 18 in 21g | 6/10g (0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·2) | 5/3g | 5/4g | 46% | — |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 7 in 25g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 6/22g | 18% | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 10 in 21g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0) | 2/4g | 4/12g | 24% | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/10g | 2% | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/15g | 10% | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 1/11g | 14% | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 3 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/6g | 14% | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 25g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/7g | 18% | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 5/16g | 10% | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 2 in 26g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/5g | 3/17g | 12% | — |
| 15 | Angus Crichton | INT | 2 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 9/18g | 16% | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/18g | 8% | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/18g | 2% | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Dolphins 1702 · Roosters 1604 · ELO difference: 99 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Dolphins | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1058 | 1126 | Roosters +67 |
| Backs | 1132 | 1048 | Dolphins +84 |
| Halves | 1160 | 1333 | Roosters +173 |
| Hooker | 1080 | 959 | Dolphins +121 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 35.6% | Dolphins |
| 2 | Recent Win Rate | 10.3% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Forward Pack | 7.7% | Roosters |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 4.6% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Rest Days | 2.1% | — |

**Model Confidence: 62%** — Dolphins predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-22 10:16 UTC (latest tip update)