# Roosters v Knights — NRL Grand Final 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 19 – 18 Knights

_Roosters roar back to crow over Knights._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 69% / Knights 31% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 04 Oct, 07:30 pm AEDT

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Mark Nawaqanitawase (36'), Billy Smith (47' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (59') · Knights: Francis Manuleleua (16' 1st), Kalyn Ponga (30'), Greg Marzhew (77' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 69% | Won |
| Knights | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 8.3 predicted → 1 actual · Markets hit: 3/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Grand Final 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 30 Sept 2026, 08:39 am · Last updated: 4 Oct 2026, 09:33 pm_

Roosters 19–18 Knights in NRL Grand Final at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve all to six at the break, and the Knights were the ones doing the damage. Francis Manuleleua went over in the 16th minute, Kalyn Ponga followed it up in the 30th, and by the 31st minute Newcastle held a 12-point lead, the biggest of the match. Mark Nawaqanitawase got the Roosters on the board just before the break, but Grand Final day was shaping as a Knights story at that point.

Positional ratings leaned Roosters' way everywhere but hooker, where Newcastle held an edge, 1200 to 1005. Roosters were rated stronger in the forwards (1209 to 1080), the backs (1086 to 1045) and the halves (1361 to 1317). Form coming in was close too: Roosters had won two of their last five to the Knights' three, averaging 25.2 points a game to Newcastle's 22, though the Knights carried the stronger recent trend, closing out their past five with three straight wins against the Roosters' two.

It didn't stay a Knights story. The Roosters scored 19 unanswered points from the 36th minute through to the 70th, turning a six-point deficit into a seven-point lead almost entirely on their own terms. Billy Smith crossed in the 47th, Sam Walker slotted a penalty goal in the 55th, Nawaqanitawase grabbed his second in the 59th, and Daly Cherry-Evans iced it with a field goal in the 70th. Greg Marzhew's try in the 77th minute pulled the Knights back within one, but the clock ran out on them. Final score: Roosters 19, Knights 18. The lead changed hands just once all afternoon, and it happened at the moment that mattered.

The stat sheet backs up what the eye saw. Roosters ran for 2,055 metres to the Knights' 1,330, with 709 of those coming after contact to Newcastle's 382. Sixty-one tackle breaks to 19 tells you who was harder to put down, and 11 offloads to 6 says the ball stayed alive in Roosters hands when it needed to. That forward dominance lines up with the pre-match numbers too, Roosters rated 1209 to 1080 up front, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the collisions.

Defensively, the gap was just as wide. Roosters tackled at 92.0% effective to the Knights' 84.4%, and missed only 22 tackles against Newcastle's 61. That's a defensive line that held when it was under the pump in the second half, after copping 12 unanswered points in the first.

Newcastle weren't without their moments. They conceded just 8 errors to the Roosters' 14, the tidier side with the ball in hand even while being physically outmuscled. They also controlled the air, kicking for 808 metres to the Roosters' 580, which kept them in field position long enough to have a real crack at the finish. It just wasn't enough once the Roosters found their rhythm through the middle of the park.

Alphr's model had Roosters favourites at 69%, with a projected margin of 8.3 and a combined total of 41. The result landed at a one-point win and a 37-point total, so the shape of the game, a Roosters win in a low-scoring arm-wrestle, was there in the numbers well before kickoff. The actual margin ran a fair way under the projection, which is no shock given how deep the Knights dug in the first half. The model went 5 from 17 on the finer detail of this one, but it had the right side winning, the right kind of margin band, and the under on the total. Not a bad read for a game that came down to the last few minutes.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 6 | 13 | 19 |
| Knights | 12 | 6 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **57%** | Possession | 43% |
| **90%** | Completion rate | 77% |
| **2,055** | Run metres | 1,330 |
| **709** | Post-contact metres | 382 |
| **3** | Line breaks | 2 |
| **61** | Tackle breaks | 19 |
| **11** | Offloads | 6 |
| **92.0%** | Effective tackle % | 84.4% |
| **22** | Missed tackles | 61 |
| 14 | Errors | **8** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 580 | Kick metres | **808** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 69% probability. The predicted margin of 8.3 was reasonable against the actual 1-point result. Total score prediction of 41 was close to the actual 37, within 4 points. Roosters trailed 6–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 19–18. The model went 5/17 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 37 points was 6 points below Adam Gee's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Adam Gee's historical trend, Roosters have a 67% win rate under this referee. Roosters's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Francis Manuleleua (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 29' Try — Kalyn Ponga (Knights) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 47' Try — Billy Smith (Roosters) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 59' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 69' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Daly Cherry-Evans (Roosters) — 19-12 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 76' Try — Greg Marzhew (Knights) — 19-16 · win-prob swing -5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.45 (edge +3.5%) — model probability 69.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Roosters 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 8 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Roosters here: 69% to see off Knights. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Roosters sit 72 ELO points clear, 1646 to 1574. Form leans Knights' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

Roosters own the matchup too, leading 4 of 6 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Forward Pack. The margin model has Roosters by 8.3, with the two sides combining for about 41. Roosters to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Roosters have won 9 of the last 10 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 19-18 in 2026 Round 31.

Roosters have won 3 straight. Roosters have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Roosters favourites, Roosters $1.45 and Knights $2.80, with the line at Roosters -7.5 and the total at 42.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 15.2 penalties a game (whistle-happy).

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 9 · Knights 1 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 19-18 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters at home | 10-4 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights away | 9-7 this season |
| Market | Roosters $1.45 · Knights $2.80 |
| Line | Roosters -7.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 15.2 pens/g · 0.4 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 30W–15L | 67% |
| Knights | 9W–21L | 30% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

When Adam Gee officiates, Roosters have won 30 of 45 games (67%), significantly stronger than Knights's 9 from 30 (30%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 25.2pts | Avg Score | 22.0pts |
| 25.0pts | Avg Conceded | 24.8pts |
| 0.2pts | Avg Margin | -2.8pts |
| 1587.2m | Run Metres | 1556.6m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 6.8 |
| 375.2 | Tackles | 356.0 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 12.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | R26 L · R27 L · FW1 L · SF W · PF W | 25.2 |
| Knights | R25 L · R26 L · FW1 W · SF W · PF W | 22.0 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Knights | 22 – 23 | Roosters | Roosters 55% ✓ |
| 2026 | R7 | Roosters | 38 – 24 | Knights | Roosters 60% ✓ |
| 2025 | R15 | Knights | 8 – 12 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2024 | R6 | Knights | 20 – 22 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2023 | R16 | Knights | 16 – 18 | Roosters | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 12 in 20g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·3·2·0·0·1·0) | 11/15g | 26/39g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 15 in 17g | 9/10g (1·1·0·3·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 13/18g | 12/21g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 58% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 12 in 17g | 7/10g (1·1·1·2·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/5g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 47' |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 15 in 23g | 7/10g (1·0·1·0·0·1·1·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 58% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 20 in 22g | 8/10g (0·0·3·0·0·0·0·1·2·2) | 2/3g | 3/2g | 50% | — | 🏉 36' 59' |
| 6 | Daly Cherry-Evans | 5/8 | 7 in 26g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/23g | 7/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 7 | Sam Walker | HB | 11 in 22g | 6/10g (0·1·0·0·3·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 1/4g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 26g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 3 in 20g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 0/6g | 1/9g | 18% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | 2R | 3 in 27g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 26g | 2/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 3/13g | 1/14g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 2 in 27g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 2/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Angus Crichton | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 8/39g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/12g | 0/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/10g | 2% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 18g | 4/10g (2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 2/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 30' |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 23 in 26g | 9/10g (1·0·1·1·2·0·1·1·1·1) | 4/5g | 7/7g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 65% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 6 in 25g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·0·0) | 2/23g | 15/42g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 17g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/5g | 5/7g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 26% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 24 in 26g | 9/10g (2·0·2·0·2·1·2·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/7g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 13 in 25g | 6/10g (0·0·2·1·2·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 41% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 3 in 26g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/2g | 3/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 2 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 7/25g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 4 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 3 in 21g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 1/2g | 19% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 27g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 0/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 2 in 22g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/4g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 12g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Dylan Lucas | INT | 10 in 18g | 6/10g (0·2·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/6g | 38% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1646 · Knights 1574 · ELO difference: 72 in favour of Roosters

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1209 | 1080 | Roosters +129 |
| Backs | 1086 | 1045 | Roosters +41 |
| Halves | 1361 | 1317 | Roosters +44 |
| Hooker | 1005 | 1200 | Knights +195 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 30.7% | Roosters |
| 2 | Halves Control | 13.9% | Roosters |
| 3 | Recent Win Rate | 11.2% | Knights |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 8.8% | Roosters |
| 5 | Hooker & Ruck | 6.8% | Knights |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 6.4% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Roosters predicted to win by 8 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 3/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-10-04 10:33 UTC (latest tip update)