# Roosters v Knights — NRL Grand Final 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Grand Final build-up

The Knights finished last in 2025. One win on Sunday and they are premiers.

Roosters got here the orthodox way. Fourth on the ladder, 16-8, then a wobble against the Panthers in week one of the finals, 12-19. They steadied against the Sharks, 46-10, then went to a sold-out Suncorp Stadium and beat a Dolphins side that had won eight straight, 36-20. Trent Robinson is into his fourth grand final in 14 seasons at the club. He has won the previous three.

Knights got here the hard way, and then some. Seventh, 14-10, into the finals. Past the Rabbitohs, past the Warriors, then into a preliminary final against minor premiers Penrith where Phoenix Crossland was sent off for a hip-drop tackle that broke Nathan Cleary's ankle, and the Knights spent more than 40 minutes with 12 men. They trailed 14-6 at half-time. They won 22-14.

Neither club has won this fixture in a grand final before, because they have never met in one. Knights have two premierships to their name, 1997 and 2001, and have not been back to a decider since. Roosters have 15, chasing a 16th, last one in 2019, back-to-back, at the same ground.

The head-to-head since 2010 is lopsided: 26 meetings, Roosters 21, Knights 5. Roosters have won the last six in a row. Knights have not beaten them since 2022. This year they have met twice already: Roosters won 38-24 in Round 7 after the Knights led 24-12 at half-time, and won again 23-22 in Round 21, settled by a Daly Cherry-Evans field goal in the 77th minute. This is the third meeting of 2026, and the one that counts.

Team news carries weight. Jacob Saifiti is suspended for the Knights after a four-match ban stemming from a Round 26 send-off. Phoenix Crossland's spot depends on the match review of his own send-off, which had not been ruled on by Sunday 27 September. He is the club's 2026 player of the year and led the competition in tackles (1,055) and 40/20s (4), so his availability matters either way. For the Roosters, Victor Radley is cleared to play after an early guilty plea to a Grade 1 dangerous contact charge, Sam Walker is fit after his return from a syndesmosis injury, and Connor Watson is a doubt after failing a HIA in the preliminary final, an 11-day stand-down unless the club is granted an exemption.

A few threads are worth following individually. Sandon Smith, let go by the Roosters last year, scored twice for the Knights against Penrith, including the match-sealing intercept. His line afterwards was simple enough: "I can't wait to go up against them on the biggest stage." Justin Holbrook, in his first year as Knights coach, was a Roosters assistant under Robinson before taking the job, and made his own NRL debut at the Knights as Andrew Johns' understudy, so there is history in the opposing coach's box too. Daly Cherry-Evans plays his last NRL game before joining Hull FC, having already won a Clive Churchill Medal on the losing side in Manly's 2013 grand final loss to the Roosters. Mark Nawaqanitawase plays his last game of rugby league before returning to rugby union.

On the numbers, Roosters have led at half-time 13 times this season and won every one of those games. Knights have five wins by 20 points or more this year, but also four losses by 20 or more, the same tally of blowout defeats as the Roosters. Form lines are close heading in: Roosters have won two straight, Knights three.

It is on at Accor Stadium, Sunday 4 October, kick-off 7:30pm AEDT, with daylight saving starting in New South Wales that morning. The Roosters also have the NRLW grand final against the Broncos earlier that day, at 4pm, giving the club sides in both deciders. There is no headline pre-match act this year: the money set aside for that instead goes to grassroots football. Grand final team lists are due on Tuesday 29 September, and Alphr's model will publish its prediction once those sides are named.

## Prediction coming soon

Our NRL model publishes its win probability, margin and total for Roosters v Knights closer to kick-off. The head-to-head picture below is real historical data.

### Roosters v Knights
Sun, 04 Oct, 07:30 pm AEDT · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Grand Final

### Match Preview

**Sydney Roosters vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Grand Final 2026**

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Roosters 9 · Knights 1 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 23-22 |
| Roosters last 4 | LLWW · 114 for, 99 against |
| Roosters at home | 9-4 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LWWW · 86 for, 80 against |
| Knights away | 9-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R21 | Knights | 22 – 23 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R7 | Roosters | 38 – 24 | Knights |
| 2025 | R15 | Knights | 8 – 12 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R6 | Knights | 20 – 22 | Roosters |
| 2023 | R16 | Knights | 16 – 18 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (2.07 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 9th there (1.19 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 20 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.67 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 8th there (1.26 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 24 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.26/g (def 8th) | 1.67/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.85/g (def 2nd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.37/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.52/g (att 11th) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 2.07/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.37/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.19/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 9th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 13 | 17 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 183m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.7% | 86% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 87 · 59 | 77 · 58 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 725m/g | 750m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.4/g | 21.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.7% | 75.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 19 | 24 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.2/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 545m/g | 482m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.7/g | 8.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.5/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.3% | 90% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.29/g (lg 0.22) +32% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Props 0.2/g (lg 0.17) +18%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.33/g (lg 0.28) +18% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.41) +0%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-27 11:19 UTC