# Warriors v Dolphins — NRL Finals Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr ## Prediction coming soon Our NRL model publishes its win probability, margin and total for Warriors v Dolphins closer to kick-off. The head-to-head picture below is real historical data. ### Warriors v Dolphins Sat, 12 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Finals Week 1 ### Match Preview **Warriors vs Dolphins Prediction and Tips - NRL Finals Week 1, 2026** _By Ben Dunlop · Published: 12 Sept 2026, 04:05 pm_ Warriors meet Dolphins in NRL Finals Week 1 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland, and the model can barely split them: Warriors just edge it. Below: the read, the win split and where the value sits. **By the numbers** | | | |---|---| | H2H (last 8) | Warriors 4 · Dolphins 4 | | Last meeting | Dolphins 26-24 | | Warriors last 4 | WWWW · 162 for, 94 against | | Warriors at home | 10-2 this season | | Dolphins last 4 | WWWW · 106 for, 48 against | | Dolphins away | 9-3 this season | _Pre-match read · Alphr model_ ### Recent Form (Last 5) | Warriors | Stat | Dolphins | |---|---|---| | 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 | | 21.6pts | Avg Score | 25.2pts | | 22.6pts | Avg Conceded | 20.4pts | | -1.0pts | Avg Margin | 4.8pts | | 1659.4m | Run Metres | 1780.8m | | 3.8 | Line Breaks | 5.8 | | 339.0 | Tackles | 394.8 | | 10.0 | Errors | 11.4 | ### Form & History | Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts | |---|---|---| | Warriors | 2W–3L | 21.6 | | Dolphins | 2W–3L | 25.2 | ### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2 | Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | |---|---|---|---|---| | 2026 | R17 | Dolphins | 26 – 24 | Warriors | | 2026 | R8 | Warriors | 20 – 18 | Dolphins | | 2025 | R22 | Warriors | 18 – 20 | Dolphins | | 2025 | R11 | Dolphins | 12 – 16 | Warriors | | 2024 | R23 | Dolphins | 34 – 32 | Warriors | ### Positional Matchup _Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._ **Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes: - Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.46 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 6th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 8 tries in that channel this season. - Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 4th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 17 tries in that channel this season. | Channel | Warriors | Dolphins | |---|---|---| | Left | 1.29/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.71/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 4th (strong)) | | Middle | 2.46/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 6th (strong)) | | Right | 1.46/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.38/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) | **Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker) | | Warriors | Dolphins | |---|---|---| | Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) | | Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) | | Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 8 | 10 · 14 | | Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.8/g | | Run Metres | 168m/g | 177m/g | | Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3/g | | Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g | | Tackle Efficiency | 84.2% | 88.5% | **Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres) | | Warriors | Dolphins | |---|---|---| | Attack rank | 7th | 2nd (strong) | | Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) | | Tries scored · conceded | 70 · 49 | 80 · 51 | | Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g | | Run Metres | 659m/g | 869m/g | | Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 20.9/g | | Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.9/g | | Tackle Efficiency | 77.3% | 82.4% | **Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock) | | Warriors | Dolphins | |---|---|---| | Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) | | Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th | | Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 15 | 13 · 17 | | Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.3/g | | Run Metres | 597m/g | 475m/g | | Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 6.5/g | | Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.9/g | | Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 91.2% | **Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12% **Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.73) +11% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.41) +7% · Wingers 1.18/g (lg 1.28) -8% _Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._ **Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy --- Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-fw1-warriors-v-dolphins RSS feed: https://alphr.com.au/feed.xml Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU). Last updated: 2026-09-07 07:55 UTC (latest tip update)