# Warriors v Dolphins — NRL Finals Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 16 – 26 Dolphins

_Dolphins hit back to outswim Warriors._

Half time: 12 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 58% / Dolphins 42% · Go Media Stadium, Auckland · Sat, 12 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Taine Tuaupiki (15' 1st Tipped ⚡) · Dolphins: Selwyn Cobbo (26' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (61' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (67' Tipped ⚡), Jack Bostock (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 58% | Lost |
| Dolphins | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.6 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Finals Week 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 12 Sept 2026, 06:11 pm_

Warriors 16–26 Dolphins in NRL Finals Week 1 at Go Media Stadium, Auckland. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Warriors started their NRL Finals Week 1 match at Go Media Stadium with strong possession and a lead at half-time, but ultimately fell 16–26 to the Dolphins. Despite holding 52% of possession and completing 83% of their sets, the Warriors could not maintain their advantage. They led 12–8 at the break and extended that to 16–8 early in the second half, but an 18-point surge from the Dolphins in the final quarter proved too much.

Taine Tuaupiki was central to the Warriors' scoring, opening the match with a penalty goal in the ninth minute. He followed this with a converted try in the 15th minute. Tuaupiki was responsible for all 16 of the Warriors' points, kicking six penalty goals in addition to his try and conversion. His three penalty goals in the first 13 minutes of the second half built the Warriors' biggest lead of the game, 16–8.

The Warriors showed discipline with the ball, making nine errors compared to the Dolphins' 11. They also won the yardage battle, gaining 1,552 run metres to the Dolphins' 1,501, and 553 post-contact metres against the Dolphins' 505.

However, the Warriors' defence struggled to contain the Dolphins' attack. They missed 65 tackles, significantly more than the Dolphins' 49, resulting in an effective tackle percentage of 81.6% compared to the Dolphins' 86.4%. This defensive vulnerability became a deciding factor as the game progressed.

The Dolphins, while conceding nine penalties to the Warriors' four, were more potent in attack when it mattered. They broke the line five times compared to the Warriors' two, and busted 65 tackles, making them harder to stop in contact. Selwyn Cobbo, Herbie Farnworth, Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow, and Jack Bostock all crossed for tries for the Dolphins.

The lead changed hands once in the match. After the Warriors took their lead to 16–8, Herbie Farnworth scored for the Dolphins in the 61st minute, converted by Jamayne Isaako. Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow then put the Dolphins in front for the first time in the 67th minute, also converted by Isaako. Jack Bostock sealed the win with another try in the 75th minute, converted by Isaako. This 18-point unanswered run by the Dolphins between the 61st and 77th minutes changed the game's complexion entirely, giving them a 10-point lead.

Sin-bins also featured in the match. Adam Pompey was sin-binned for the Warriors in the 28th minute for a shoulder charge, but the Dolphins did not score during that period. Selwyn Cobbo of the Dolphins was sin-binned in the 34th minute. In the same minute, Kurt Capewell for the Warriors was also sin-binned. The Warriors managed to score two points with the extra man during this period, but it was not enough to hold their lead.

The Alphr model had rated the Warriors at 1695 and the Dolphins at 1673, predicting a Warriors win by 3.6 points. The Dolphins defied this 58% win probability, turning a predicted loss into a 10-point victory. The model's total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 42, missing by one point. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 12 | 4 | 16 |
| Dolphins | 8 | 18 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **52%** | Possession | 48% |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,552** | Run metres | 1,501 |
| **553** | Post-contact metres | 505 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 48 | Tackle breaks | **65** |
| **7** | Offloads | 6 |
| 81.6% | Effective tackle % | **86.4%** |
| 65 | Missed tackles | **49** |
| **9** | Errors | 11 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 9 |
| 616 | Kick metres | **624** |

**Model Report Card**

Dolphins defied the model's 58% prediction for Warriors, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.6 but the actual margin was 10 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 42, within 1 points. Dolphins trailed 12–8 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 16–26. The model went 5/17 on this match. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (309 career games). The 42-point combined total was right in line with Adam Gee's career average of 43. Dolphins bucked the trend, Warriors historically win 47% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Adam Gee's 58% career home-team win rate, the away side Dolphins prevailed. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 15' Try — Taine Tuaupiki (Warriors) — 6-2 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 25' Try — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 10-6 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 28' Sin Bin — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 10-6 · win-prob swing -12 pts
- 33' Sin Bin — Selwyn Cobbo (Dolphins) — 10-6 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 33' Sin Bin — Kurt Capewell (Warriors) — 10-6 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 60' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 16-12 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 66' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 16-18 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 74' Try — Jack Bostock (Dolphins) — 16-24 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Warriors to win @ $1.61 (edge -0.8%) — model probability 58.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Warriors -3.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Warriors 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Warriors by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Warriors are the call at 58%, but Dolphins stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Warriors sit 22 ELO points clear, 1695 to 1673.

On paper Dolphins shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Hooker & Ruck, Halves Control and Forward Pack. The model still sides with Warriors, which says Recent Win Rate and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Warriors by 3.6, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Warriors, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dolphins have won 5 of the last 9 between these two, and Dolphins took the most recent meeting 26-16 in 2026 Round 28.

Dolphins are 10-3 on the road this year. Dolphins have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Warriors favourites, Warriors $1.61 and Dolphins $2.33, with the line at Warriors -3.5 and the total at 46.5.

Adam Gee has the whistle: 15.6 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 9) | Warriors 4 · Dolphins 5 |
| Last meeting | Dolphins 26-16 |
| Warriors last 4 | WWLL · 103 for, 100 against |
| Warriors at home | 10-4 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | WWWL · 96 for, 84 against |
| Dolphins away | 10-3 this season |
| Market | Warriors $1.61 · Dolphins $2.33 |
| Line | Warriors -3.5 · total 46.5 |
| Referee | Adam Gee · 15.6 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Warriors

**Adam Gee** — 309 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 17W–19L | 47% |
| Dolphins | 6W–9L | 40% |

Avg total: 43.1 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Warriors hold a 7-point edge: 17W–19L (47%) vs Dolphins's 6W–9L (40%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. Warriors get a +0.3 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Dolphins's -1.1. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 5.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 5.0 |
| 38.0pts | Avg Score | 29.2pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 16.0pts |
| 16.8pts | Avg Margin | 13.2pts |
| 1728.2m | Run Metres | 1804.6m |
| 7.0 | Line Breaks | 6.2 |
| 294.2 | Tackles | 364.2 |
| 9.0 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 38.0 |
| Dolphins | R23 W · R24 W · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 29.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dolphins lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Dolphins | 26 – 24 | Warriors | Dolphins 65% ✓ |
| 2026 | R8 | Warriors | 20 – 18 | Dolphins | Warriors 63% ✓ |
| 2025 | R22 | Warriors | 18 – 20 | Dolphins | not priced |
| 2025 | R11 | Dolphins | 12 – 16 | Warriors | not priced |
| 2024 | R23 | Dolphins | 34 – 32 | Warriors | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 2 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the middle: NRL's 1st-ranked middle attack (2.46 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 6th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Harris-Tavita, 8 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the left edge: NRL's 5th-ranked left edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 4th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Cobbo, 17 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.29/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.71/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.46/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.46/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.38/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 22 · 8 | 10 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 2.2/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 168m/g | 177m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.7/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 84.2% | 88.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 70 · 49 | 80 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 1.2/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 659m/g | 869m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15/g | 20.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.5/g | 3.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.3% | 82.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 14th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 28 · 15 | 13 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.7/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 597m/g | 475m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 6.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.5/g | 0.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 91.2% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.22) +14% · Props 0.19/g (lg 0.17) +12%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Centres 0.81/g (lg 0.73) +11% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.41) +7% · Wingers 1.18/g (lg 1.28) -8%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Go Media Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Taine Tuaupiki | FB | 6 in 23g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·3) | 1/6g | 4/21g | 16% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 31% ✓ Scored | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | WG | 12 in 15g | 9/10g (0·4·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·2) | 1/5g | 12/36g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Ali Leiataua | CE | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 6/14g | 30% | — | — |
| 5 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 16 in 18g | 7/10g (0·2·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 4/5g | 5/7g | 56% | — | — |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 8 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·1·1·1·0) | 1/5g | 16/35g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.95 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Te Maire Martin | HB | 6 in 11g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 2/6g | 3/21g | 22% | — | — |
| 8 | James Fisher-Harris | PR | 3 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/20g | 14% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/5g | 3/41g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/27g | 12% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 2 in 13g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/6g | 4/23g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Laban | 2R | 8 in 24g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0) | 2/6g | 4/19g | 28% | — | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 6 in 24g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 3/22g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam Healey | INT | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Tanner Stowers-Smith | INT | 0 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 1 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/4g | 1/22g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Jackson Ford | INT | 4 in 14g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/33g | 16% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 13 in 19g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2) | 3/10g | 1/2g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.45 AI 56% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 67' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 21 in 24g | 9/10g (2·1·0·2·0·1·1·2·0·0) | 11/13g | 6/5g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 59% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Jack Bostock | CE | 5 in 14g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/1g | 32% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 13 in 23g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·2·1·1) | 10/12g | 2/2g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 58% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 61' |
| 5 | Selwyn Cobbo | WG | 17 in 18g | 14/10g (2·1·2·2·0·2·1·1·1·2) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 76% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 26' |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 4 in 20g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/13g | 1/11g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 0/3g | 10% | — | — |
| 8 | Thomas Flegler | PR | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/0g | 16% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 3 in 16g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/9g | 1/4g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Tom Gilbert | PR | 1 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/0g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Max Plath | 2R | 4 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 24% | — | — |
| 12 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 3 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/0g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Morgan Knowles | LK | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 3% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Donoghoe | INT | 2 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/2g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 3 in 19g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 18% | — | — |
| 16 | Francis Molo | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Connelly Lemuelu | INT | 6 in 22g | 5/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·2·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/3g | 30% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1695 · Dolphins 1673 · ELO difference: 22 in favour of Warriors

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1101 | 1138 | Dolphins +37 |
| Backs | 938 | 1047 | Dolphins +109 |
| Halves | 1252 | 1317 | Dolphins +65 |
| Hooker | 1121 | 1200 | Dolphins +79 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Recent Win Rate | 29.7% | Warriors |
| 2 | Hooker & Ruck | 16.3% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Halves Control | 11.7% | Dolphins |
| 4 | Forward Pack | 10.7% | Dolphins |
| 5 | Referee Tendency | 6.7% | Warriors |
| 6 | Backline Quality | 4.9% | Dolphins |
| 7 | Team ELO | 3.3% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Warriors predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-12 08:11 UTC (latest tip update)