# Rabbitohs v Knights — NRL Finals Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Prediction coming soon

Our NRL model publishes its win probability, margin and total for Rabbitohs v Knights closer to kick-off. The head-to-head picture below is real historical data.

### Rabbitohs v Knights
Fri, 11 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Finals Week 1

### Match Preview

**Rabbitohs vs Knights Prediction and Tips - NRL Finals Week 1, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 11 Sept 2026, 07:50 pm_

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Rabbitohs 26-24 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WLWW · 140 for, 93 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-3 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWLL · 122 for, 140 against |
| Knights away | 6-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 24 | Knights |
| 2026 | R9 | Knights | 42 – 38 | Rabbitohs |
| 2025 | R9 | Rabbitohs | 4 – 30 | Knights |
| 2024 | R25 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 36 | Knights |
| 2023 | R25 | Knights | 29 – 10 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 11th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.79 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 10th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 24 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.04/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) | 1.79/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.54/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 10th) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.17/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.75/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 14 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 81 · 55 | 73 · 54 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 726m/g | 743m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.7/g | 20.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.6/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.8% | 74.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 21 | 21 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 581m/g | 481m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.9/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 90% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.24/g (lg 0.14) +71% · Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.28) +50% · Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.41) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-07 07:55 UTC (latest tip update)