# Rabbitohs v Knights — NRL Finals Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 10 – 20 Knights

_Knights conquer Rabbitohs._

Half time: 6 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 64% / Knights 36% · Allianz Stadium, Sydney · Fri, 11 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Campbell Graham (36' Tipped ⚡), Jye Gray (75') · Knights: Jermaine McEwen (5' 1st), Dane Gagai (26'), Jermaine McEwen (61' 1st), Dominic Young (66' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 64% | Lost |
| Knights | 36% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 9.5 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 1/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Finals Week 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 11 Sept 2026, 09:52 pm_

Rabbitohs 10–20 Knights in NRL Finals Week 1 at Allianz Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Knights delivered an upset in NRL Finals Week 1, defeating the Rabbitohs 20-10 at Allianz Stadium. This outcome went against Alphr's pre-match model, which had given the Rabbitohs a 64% probability of winning with an expected margin of 9.5 points. The Knights' performance, particularly in yardage and defence, meant the model's outright winner prediction did not land.

Newcastle led 10-6 at half-time. Jermaine McEwen opened the scoring for the Knights in the fifth minute, though Sandon Smith missed the conversion. Dane Gagai added another try in the 26th minute, converted by Smith, extending the lead to 8-0. The Rabbitohs got on the scoreboard through Campbell Graham in the 36th minute, with Latrell Mitchell converting, making it 10-6 before the break. The model had favoured the Rabbitohs due to their stronger backline and halves ratings, 1079 and 1157 respectively, compared to the Knights' 1050 and 934. Their recent form also suggested a higher average score of 33.6 points to 30.4, and a better average margin of 10.2 points to 1.2 over their last five games.

The Knights extended their lead in the second half. McEwen scored his second try in the 61st minute, converted by Smith, pushing the lead to 14-6. Dominic Young added another try in the 66th minute, with Smith missing the conversion, making it 20-6. This 14-point lead was the largest of the match. The Rabbitohs managed a late try through Jye Gray in the 75th minute, but Mitchell missed the conversion, and it was not enough to close the gap.

Despite the Rabbitohs' slightly higher completion rate of 83% to the Knights' 85%, and fewer errors, 11 to 14, the Knights dominated the physical contest. They ran for 1,806 metres compared to the Rabbitohs' 1,507, and gained 589 post-contact metres to 526. This yardage advantage was a key factor in defying the model’s prediction.

The Knights also broke the line six times to the Rabbitohs' three, showing a sharper edge in attack. Their ability to generate tackle breaks was significant, busting 39 tackles while the Rabbitohs managed only 25. This pointed to the Knights' forwards, rated 1070 compared to the Rabbitohs' 1063, making a strong impact on the game.

Defensively, the Knights were more effective, with a tackle efficiency of 91.2% and only 25 missed tackles. The Rabbitohs, in contrast, missed 39 tackles and had an effective tackle rate of 85.9%. This defensive solidity from Newcastle helped them maintain their lead and proved crucial in shutting down a Rabbitohs side that the model expected to score more. The Knights also conceded fewer penalties, 6 to the Rabbitohs' 7.

While the model correctly predicted the under 48.5 total, with the combined score finishing at 30, the outright result was a miss. The Knights' ability to win the physical battle in the middle and break tackles consistently was more impactful than the Rabbitohs' cleaner ball handling and the model's positional strength read. The model went 3/17 on this match.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 6 | 4 | 10 |
| Knights | 10 | 10 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 83% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,507 | Run metres | **1,806** |
| 526 | Post-contact metres | **589** |
| 3 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **39** |
| 8 | Offloads | **11** |
| 85.9% | Effective tackle % | **91.2%** |
| 39 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| **11** | Errors | 14 |
| 7 | Penalties conceded | **6** |
| **569** | Kick metres | 492 |

**Model Report Card**

Knights defied the model's 64% prediction for Rabbitohs, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 9.5 but the actual margin was 10 points. The model went 3/17 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (420 career games). The combined score of 30 points was 13 points below Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Knights bucked the trend, Rabbitohs historically win 53% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Ashley Klein's 61% career home-team win rate, the away side Knights prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Jermaine McEwen (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 25' Try — Dane Gagai (Knights) — 0-8 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Campbell Graham (Rabbitohs) — 4-10 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 61' Try — Jermaine McEwen (Knights) — 6-14 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 65' Try — Dominic Young (Knights) — 6-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 74' Try — Jye Gray (Rabbitohs) — 10-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Rabbitohs to win @ $1.42 (edge -2.7%) — model probability 64.2% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Rabbitohs -7.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Margin Band:** Rabbitohs 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Rabbitohs by 10 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Rabbitohs are the call at 64%, but Knights stay live at 36%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Rabbitohs sit 110 ELO points clear, 1581 to 1470. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Knights.

Rabbitohs own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including Team ELO, Halves Control and Hooker & Ruck. The margin model has Rabbitohs by 9.5, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Rabbitohs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 20-10 in 2026 Round 28.

Rabbitohs have put up 128 points in four games. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Rabbitohs favourites, Rabbitohs $1.42 and Knights $2.87, with the line at Rabbitohs -7.5 and the total at 48.5.

Knights come in fresher, 12 days between games against 6.

Ashley Klein has the whistle: 13.7 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game, home sides win 61% of his games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 20-10 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | LWWL · 128 for, 107 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Knights last 4 | WWWL · 72 for, 53 against |
| Knights away | 9-7 this season |
| Market | Rabbitohs $1.42 · Knights $2.87 |
| Line | Rabbitohs -7.5 · total 48.5 |
| Rest gap | Rabbitohs 6d · Knights 12d |
| Referee | Ashley Klein · 13.7 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Rabbitohs

**Ashley Klein** — 420 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 32W–28L | 53% |
| Knights | 17W–27L | 39% |

Avg total: 43.5 pts · Home win %: 61% · Home bias: Leans home

Rabbitohs hold a 14-point edge: 32W–28L (53%) vs Knights's 17W–27L (39%). Home teams win 61% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 33.6pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 23.4pts | Avg Conceded | 29.2pts |
| 10.2pts | Avg Margin | 1.2pts |
| 1754.6m | Run Metres | 1567.8m |
| 8.6 | Line Breaks | 8.8 |
| 313.4 | Tackles | 328.4 |
| 8.4 | Errors | 10.0 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | R23 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 W · R27 W | 33.6 |
| Knights | R22 W · R23 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R19 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 24 | Knights | Knights 51% ✗ |
| 2026 | R9 | Knights | 42 – 38 | Rabbitohs | Rabbitohs 55% ✗ |
| 2025 | R9 | Rabbitohs | 4 – 30 | Knights | not priced |
| 2024 | R25 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 36 | Knights | not priced |
| 2023 | R25 | Knights | 29 – 10 | Rabbitohs | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 0 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.75 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 11th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Graham, 13 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.79 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 10th there (1.38 conceded/game). Key man: Marzhew, 24 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 2.04/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 10th) | 1.79/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.54/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 10th) | 1.58/g (att 8th) · concedes 2.17/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.75/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 1.33/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 13th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 14 | 14 · 18 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 161m/g | 205m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.1/g | 4.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 86.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 81 · 55 | 73 · 54 |
| Try Assists | 2/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 726m/g | 743m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 16.7/g | 20.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.6/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.8% | 74.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 25 · 21 | 21 · 22 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 581m/g | 481m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.9/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.2/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.4% | 90% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.1) +40% · Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.22) +36% · Props 0.21/g (lg 0.17) +24%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Hookers 0.24/g (lg 0.14) +71% · Five-Eighths 0.42/g (lg 0.28) +50% · Fullbacks 0.51/g (lg 0.41) +24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Allianz Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Matthew Dufty | FB | 3 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/4g | 14% | — | — |
| 2 | Alex Johnston | WG | 30 in 21g | 15/10g (4·0·1·1·1·3·1·2·1·1) | 17/11g | 15/22g | 78% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.63 AI 86% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Latrell Mitchell | CE | 12 in 11g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·4·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 24/42g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 62% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Jack Wighton | CE | 4 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 8/22g | 2/10g | 22% | — | — |
| 5 | Campbell Graham | WG | 13 in 18g | 7/10g (0·0·1·0·2·1·1·0·0·2) | 2/8g | 4/7g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 64% ✓ Scored | 🏉 36' |
| 6 | Cody Walker | 5/8 | 9 in 23g | 5/10g (2·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 7/10g | 3/17g | 28% | — | — |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 1 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/4g | 1/3g | 6% | — | — |
| 8 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 2 in 24g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 1/11g | 12% | — | — |
| 9 | Brandon Smith | HK | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 3/10g | 4/20g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Keaon Koloamatangi | PR | 2 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | David Fifita | 2R | 6 in 16g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 8/10g | 1/5g | 30% | — | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 12 in 21g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·0·1·1·2) | 3/5g | 2/5g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.65 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Cameron Murray | LK | 5 in 19g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/8g | 1/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 14 | Jye Gray | INT | 4 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/5g | 22% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Sean Keppie | INT | 1 in 18g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/6g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Jamie Humphreys | INT | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/4g | 10% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 5 in 15g | 4/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 2 | Dominic Young | WG | 20 in 23g | 6/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·1·2·0·1) | 5/7g | 16/15g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.10 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 66' |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 5 in 22g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 2/13g | 0/7g | 14% | — | 🏉 26' |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 4 in 14g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 0/0g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.50 AI 26% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 2% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 24 in 23g | 9/10g (0·0·0·2·0·2·0·2·1·2) | 7/7g | 0/1g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 12 in 22g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·2·0·0) | 4/4g | 0/1g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.90 AI 74% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Sandon Smith | HB | 1 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 4/20g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Tyson Frizell | PR | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/19g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 3 in 22g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Cody Hopwood | PR | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | Jermaine McEwen | 2R | 2 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 15% | — | 🏉 5' 61' |
| 12 | Francis Manuleleua | 2R | 2 in 18g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/1g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Mat Croker | LK | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Harrison Graham | INT | 2 in 19g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/1g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Crouch | INT | 0 in 9g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Pasami Saulo | INT | 0 in 15g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Cant | INT | 0 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1581 · Knights 1470 · ELO difference: 110 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1063 | 1070 | Knights +6 |
| Backs | 1079 | 1050 | Rabbitohs +29 |
| Halves | 1157 | 934 | Rabbitohs +224 |
| Hooker | 994 | 896 | Rabbitohs +99 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Team ELO | 37.9% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Halves Control | 12.3% | Rabbitohs |
| 3 | Hooker & Ruck | 7.6% | Rabbitohs |
| 4 | Backline Quality | 7.2% | Rabbitohs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 4.4% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Forward Pack | 3.5% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 2.3% | Knights |

**Model Confidence: 64%** — Rabbitohs predicted to win by 10 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-11 11:52 UTC (latest tip update)