# Panthers v Roosters — NRL Finals Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 19 – 12 Roosters

_Panthers maul Roosters._

Half time: 12 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 63% / Roosters 37% · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 13 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Liam Martin (12' 1st), Dylan Edwards (36'), Brian To'o (77' Tipped ⚡) · Roosters: Robert Toia (20' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (25')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 63% | Won |
| Roosters | 37% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 6.9 predicted → 7 actual · Markets hit: 4/4

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Sydney Roosters Prediction & Tips | NRL Finals Week 1 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 8 Sept 2026, 08:14 pm · Last updated: 13 Sept 2026, 06:04 pm_

Panthers 19–12 Roosters in NRL Finals Week 1 at CommBank Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Panthers and Roosters brought clashing styles to CommBank Stadium in NRL Finals Week 1 and the patient side won out 19–12. Penrith ground through control and raw metres while the Roosters chased breaks and territory with the ball. The scoreboard settled the argument after the break.

The contest sat locked at 12–12 at half-time. Liam Martin opened the scoring in the 12th minute, converted by Nathan Cleary. Robert Toia crossed for the Roosters in the 20th minute and Mark Nawaqanitawase added another in the 25th, both converted by Hugo Savala, for a four-point lead. Dylan Edwards replied in the 36th minute, Cleary converted, and the sides went to the sheds even. The Roosters scored 12 unanswered points between the 20th and 26th minutes, followed by 13 unanswered points from the Panthers between the 36th and 79th minutes.

Nathan Cleary was sin-binned in the 40th minute for pressure on the kicker and placed on report. Neither side scored while the Panthers played with 12 men. Both teams burned unsuccessful captain's challenges, one in the 8th minute for the Roosters and one in the 49th for the Panthers. The lead changed hands twice and the biggest lead was seven points in the 79th minute.

Cleary slotted a field goal in the 71st minute to edge his side in front. Brian To'o scored in the 77th minute, converted by Dylan Edwards, and the Panthers had their seven-point buffer at the final whistle. That 13-point unanswered burst from the 36th to the 79th minute decided the contest.

Penrith controlled 55 per cent of the ball and posted a 78 per cent completion rate against the Roosters' 73 per cent. They ran for 1,835 metres to 1,513 and won the post-contact battle 554 metres to 487. Those numbers matched their recent form edge of 1638 run metres per game against the Roosters' 1569.8. The Panthers also produced 32 tackle breaks to 28 and 11 offloads to 9.

The Roosters showed sharper attacking intent with three line breaks to two and controlled territory through the boot, kicking 893 metres to 641. Yet they conceded seven penalties to two, three in the first half and four in the second, while the Panthers split their two penalties evenly across the halves. That discipline gap hurt the Roosters more than their cleaner error count of 12 to 13.

Positional ratings had told a mixed story beforehand. The Roosters held edges in forwards at 1183 to 1112 and in halves at 1183 to 1078, but the Panthers rated stronger in the backs at 1192 to 1031. Recent form also split the sides, with the Panthers winning three of their last five and posting an average margin of 5.6 points against the Roosters' minus 7.4.

Alphr's model rated the Panthers 1657 to the Roosters' 1577 and correctly picked the win at 63 per cent probability. The margin model landed almost exactly, forecasting Panthers by 6.9 against the actual margin of seven points. It went 6 out of 17 on the match overall. The Roosters covered the 9.5-point line and the under 42.5 total call proved correct.

Penrith's willingness to grind for every metre and hold their defensive shape, even a man down, proved the difference in the end.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 12 | 7 | 19 |
| Roosters | 12 | 0 | 12 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| **1,835** | Run metres | 1,513 |
| **554** | Post-contact metres | 487 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **3** |
| **32** | Tackle breaks | 28 |
| **11** | Offloads | 9 |
| 89.5% | Effective tackle % | **90.7%** |
| **28** | Missed tackles | 32 |
| 13 | Errors | **12** |
| **2** | Penalties conceded | 7 |
| 641 | Kick metres | **893** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Panthers to win at 63% probability. The margin model was sharp, predicting Panthers by 6.9 vs the actual margin of 7 points. The model went 6/17 on this match. Roosters covered the 9.5-point line. The 1-12 margin band call landed. The under 42.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (405 career games). The combined score of 31 points was 11 points below Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Panthers's home victory fits Gerard Sutton's profile, home teams win 56% of the time under this referee. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 11' Try — Liam Martin (Panthers) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 19' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 24' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 35' Try — Dylan Edwards (Panthers) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Sin Bin — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 10-12 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 70' 1 Point Field Goal-Made — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 13-12 · win-prob swing +6 pts
- 77' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 17-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Panthers to win @ $1.32 (edge -8.7%) — model probability 63.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters +9.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Margin Band:** Panthers 1-12 @ $2.55 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.91 (edge +0.0%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Panthers by 7 · Predicted total: 39

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Panthers are the call at 63%, but Roosters stay live at 37%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Panthers sit 81 ELO points clear, 1657 to 1577. Form leans Panthers' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

Panthers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Team ELO and Venue Advantage. The margin model has Panthers by 6.9, with the two sides combining for about 39. Lean Panthers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 19-12 in 2026 Round 28.

Panthers are 11-3 at home this year. Roosters have won 3 straight. Roosters have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

The market has Panthers favourites, Panthers $1.32 and Roosters $3.42, with the line at Panthers -9.5 and the total at 42.5.

Gerard Sutton has the whistle: 15.0 penalties a game (whistle-happy), 0.6 sin bins a game.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Roosters 2 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 19-12 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 95 for, 54 against |
| Panthers at home | 11-3 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWW · 113 for, 67 against |
| Roosters away | 9-5 this season |
| Market | Panthers $1.32 · Roosters $3.42 |
| Line | Panthers -9.5 · total 42.5 |
| Referee | Gerard Sutton · 15.0 pens/g · 0.6 bins/g |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Gerard Sutton** — 405 career games since 2012.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 36W–30L | 55% |
| Roosters | 34W–27L | 56% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 56% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Gerard Sutton, Panthers 36W–30L (55%) and Roosters 34W–27L (56%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. Panthers get a +0.1 penalty advantage under Gerard Sutton vs Roosters's -1.2. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 17.6pts |
| 14.8pts | Avg Conceded | 25.0pts |
| 5.6pts | Avg Margin | -7.4pts |
| 1638.0m | Run Metres | 1569.8m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 5.4 |
| 372.0 | Tackles | 372.8 |
| 10.6 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

_Last 5 games, oldest → newest._

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | R23 L · R24 L · R25 W · R26 W · R27 W | 20.4 |
| Roosters | R23 W · R24 W · R25 L · R26 L · R27 L | 17.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away | Alphr's read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Panthers | 6 – 12 | Roosters | Panthers 60% ✗ |
| 2026 | R3 | Roosters | 4 – 40 | Panthers | Panthers 50% ✓ |
| 2025 | R7 | Roosters | 12 – 40 | Panthers | not priced |
| 2025 | R2 | Panthers | 32 – 38 | Roosters | not priced |
| 2024 | FW1 | Panthers | 30 – 10 | Roosters | not priced |

_Alphr's pre-match read was right in 1 of the last 2 decided meetings it priced._

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 9th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 30 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.92 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.79 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.88/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.88/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.54/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 7th) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.79/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.92/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 12 | 18 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 74 · 33 | 76 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 858m/g | 717m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.6/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 81.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 13 | 12 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 528m/g | 561m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.28) +21% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.41) +0%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.46/g (lg 0.47) -2% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18% · Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.41) -24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at CommBank Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 11 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 7/15g | 10/26g | 30% | — | 🏉 36' |
| 2 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 30 in 24g | 10/10g (2·3·0·1·2·0·0·0·0·2) | 4/4g | 18/20g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.76 AI 56% ✗ No try | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 11 in 18g | 8/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·1·3) | 2/4g | 15/20g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.12 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 15 in 22g | 6/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·3·0·1) | 8/14g | 12/25g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 53% ✓ Scored | 🏉 77' |
| 6 | Jack Cole | 5/8 | 0 in 14g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/10g | 7% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 6/27g | 28% | — | — |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 1/30g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Mitch Kenny | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/18g | 2% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | LK | 3 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 4/24g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 3 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 7/41g | 20% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 7 in 16g | 6/10g (1·0·0·1·2·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/16g | 7/24g | 28% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | INT | 2 in 18g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/20g | 2/24g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Freddy Lussick | RES | 4 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/13g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Scott Sorensen | INT | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 1/22g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Liam Henry | PR | 4 in 15g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/16g | 22% | — | — |
| 17 | Billy Phillips | INT | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/10g | 9% | — | — |

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2026 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 11 in 17g | 7/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·3·2·0) | 5/20g | 7/9g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 13 in 14g | 11/10g (2·0·2·1·1·0·3·1·0·1) | 10/23g | 7/12g | 60% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 46% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 12 in 14g | 10/10g (0·1·2·1·1·1·2·0·2·0) | 0/4g | 1/5g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.45 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 12 in 20g | 6/10g (0·1·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 2/4g | 1/3g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 30% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 4% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 15 in 19g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·3·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/3g | 42% | — | 🏉 25' |
| 6 | Hugo Savala | 5/8 | 8 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/3g | 22% | — | — |
| 7 | Daly Cherry-Evans | HB | 6 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0) | 7/25g | 4/11g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 0 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/4g | 2% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 3 in 19g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Collins | PR | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/11g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 3 in 24g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/3g | 14% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 1/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 1 in 16g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Connor Watson | INT | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 2/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Spencer Leniu | INT | 0 in 20g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Nat Butcher | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 2/10g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1657 · Roosters 1577 · ELO difference: 81 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Roosters | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1112 | 1183 | Roosters +71 |
| Backs | 1192 | 1031 | Panthers +160 |
| Halves | 1078 | 1183 | Roosters +105 |
| Hooker | 680 | 1121 | Roosters +441 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Halves Control | 22.6% | Roosters |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 19.5% | Roosters |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 14.2% | Panthers |
| 4 | Team ELO | 9.2% | Panthers |
| 5 | Venue Advantage | 8.4% | Panthers |
| 6 | Hooker & Ruck | 7.7% | Roosters |
| 7 | Recent Win Rate | 7.1% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 63%** — Panthers predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 39 pts

**Record:** 4/4 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-13 08:04 UTC (latest tip update)