# Panthers v Roosters — NRL Finals Week 1 2026 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Prediction coming soon

Our NRL model publishes its win probability, margin and total for Panthers v Roosters closer to kick-off. The head-to-head picture below is real historical data.

### Panthers v Roosters
Sun, 13 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST · CommBank Stadium, Sydney · Finals Week 1

### Match Preview

**Panthers vs Roosters Prediction and Tips - NRL Finals Week 1, 2026**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 13 Sept 2026, 04:05 pm_

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 8 · Roosters 2 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 12-6 |
| Panthers last 4 | LWWW · 90 for, 46 against |
| Panthers at home | 10-2 this season |
| Roosters last 4 | WLLL · 68 for, 107 against |
| Roosters away | 8-4 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Panthers | 6 – 12 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R3 | Roosters | 4 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R7 | Roosters | 12 – 40 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R2 | Panthers | 32 – 38 | Roosters |
| 2024 | FW1 | Panthers | 30 – 10 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 9th there (1.33 conceded/game). Key man: Jenkins, 30 tries in that channel this season.
- Roosters' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.92 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 1st there (0.79 conceded/game). Key man: Nawaqanitawase, 15 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.88/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.67/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.13/g (att 12th) · concedes 1.33/g (def 9th) |
| Middle | 1.88/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.54/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 6th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 12th) · concedes 0.79/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.92/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 8th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 15 · 12 | 18 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.8/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 191m/g | 188m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 3.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.6% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 74 · 33 | 76 · 52 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 858m/g | 717m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 20.6/g | 17.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.8/g | 3.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.6% | 81.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Roosters |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 13 | 12 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.2/g |
| Run Metres | 528m/g | 561m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 9.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.3% | 90.4% |

**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.34/g (lg 0.28) +21% · Props 0.18/g (lg 0.17) +6% · Fullbacks 0.41/g (lg 0.41) +0%
**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.47/g (lg 0.47) +0% · Halfbacks 0.18/g (lg 0.22) -18% · Fullbacks 0.31/g (lg 0.41) -24%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-09-07 07:55 UTC (latest tip update)