# NSW Blues v QLD Maroons — State of Origin Game 3 2026 AI Prediction

Wed 8 Jul 2026, 8:05pm AEST · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane
**Final: QLD Maroons 12 - 30 NSW Blues (NSW win series 2-1)**

NSW won the decider 30-12 at Suncorp to claim the series 2-1 — one of the biggest upsets in Origin history with the market at QLD $1.55. Alphr's club-form lineup model had NSW ~91% and the call landed: Cleary scored the first try (double by 26'), halftime 18-4, and all three headline picks won (NSW H2H $2.50, NSW +5.5 $1.90, Under 44.5 $1.84 with the total at 42).

- **Head to Head:** New South Wales to win @ $2.50 — model probability 90.8% (edge +52.5%) — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New South Wales +5.5 @ $1.90 (edge +40.8%) — model margin 10.4 pts — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.84 (edge +17.4%) — model total 38.0 — result: WON

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-08-01 08:13 UTC