NRL/State of Origin · Game 1
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NSW Blues
90.1%
VS
Away
QLD Maroons
9.9%
Wed 27 May · 8:05pm AEST · Accor Stadium, Sydney
AI Win Probability
90.1%
Blues
9.9%
Maroons

Derived by aggregating the recent per-game ratings of every named player in each 17-man squad — not a club-fixture model output.

Head to Head+28.8%
NSW
$1.55model 90%
Line+26.1%
NSW -4.5
$1.90model 76%
Predicted margin: NSW by 13.0
Total+13.5%
Under 42.5
$1.90model 64%
Predicted total: 38 pts

Positional Matchup

Average rating by group (higher = better recent form).

Spine (1/6/7/9)NSW edge
0.85·0.41
Starting Forwards (8/10/11/12/13)NSW edge
0.74·-0.05
Outside Backs (2/3/4/5)QLD edge
0.13·0.13
Bench (14–17)NSW edge
0.33·0.04
NSW Blues
  • 1
    James Tedesco
    Fullback
    +1.17
  • 2
    Brian To'o
    Winger
    +0.09
  • 3
    Stephen Crichton
    Centre
    +0.06
  • 4
    Kotoni Staggs
    Centre
    -0.06
  • 5
    Tolutau Koula
    Winger
    +0.44
  • 6
    Mitchell Moses
    Five-Eighth
    +0.43
  • 7
    Nathan Cleary
    Halfback
    +1.43
  • 8
    Addin Fonua-Blake
    Prop
    +0.42
  • 9
    Reece Robson
    Hooker
    +0.35
  • 10
    Mitchell Barnett
    Prop
    +0.78
  • 11
    Hudson Young
    2nd Row
    +1.00
  • 12
    Haumole Olakau'atu
    2nd Row
    +0.52
  • 13
    Isaah Yeo
    Lock
    +1.00
  • 14
    Cameron Murray
    Interchange
    +0.28
  • 15
    Victor Radley
    Interchange
    -0.49
  • 16
    Jacob Saifiti
    Interchange
    +0.21
  • 17
    Blayke Brailey
    Interchange
    +1.31
QLD Maroons
  • 1
    Kalyn Ponga
    Fullback
    +0.74
  • 2
    Selwyn Cobbo
    Winger
    -0.09
  • 3
    Robert Toia
    Centre
    +0.29
  • 4
    Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow
    Centre
    +0.87
  • 5
    Jojo Fifita
    Winger
    -0.54
  • 6
    Cameron Munster
    Five-Eighth
    -0.25
  • 7
    Sam Walker
    Halfback
    +0.08
  • 8
    Thomas Flegler
    Prop
    -0.16
  • 9
    Harry Grant
    Hooker
    +1.07
  • 10
    Tino Fa'asuamaleaui
    Prop
    +0.26
  • 11
    Reuben Cotter
    2nd Row
    +0.06
  • 12
    Kurt Capewell
    2nd Row
    -0.41
  • 13
    Max Plath
    Lock
    +0.00
  • 14
    Briton Nikora
    Interchange
    -0.44
  • 15
    Lindsay Collins
    Interchange
    -0.53
  • 16
    Patrick Carrigan
    Interchange
    +1.13
  • 17
    Trent Loiero
    Interchange
    +0.01
Scorer Markets

Anytime Try Scorer

Model probability vs Sportsbet overlay, ranked by edge.

8 Plays
Sam WalkerQLD
halfFair 2.092+ 14%
$4.80
+27.0% edge
Model
48%
Market
21%
Confidence
48%
Robert ToiaQLD
backFair 2.132+ 13%
$3.70
+19.9% edge
Model
47%
Market
27%
Confidence
47%
Cameron MunsterQLD
halfFair 2.882+ 7%
$5.00
+14.7% edge
Model
35%
Market
20%
Confidence
35%
Reece RobsonNSW
hookerFair 3.602+ 4%
$7.50
+14.4% edge
Model
28%
Market
13%
Confidence
28%
Selwyn CobboQLD
backFair 1.822+ 19%
$2.40
+13.4% edge
Model
55%
Market
42%
Confidence
55%
James TedescoNSW
backFair 2.032+ 15%
$2.70
+12.3% edge
Model
49%
Market
37%
Confidence
49%
Kurt CapewellQLD
forwardFair 3.982+ 3%
$6.50
+9.8% edge
Model
25%
Market
15%
Confidence
25%
Max PlathQLD
forwardFair 6.162+ 1%
$12.50
+8.2% edge
Model
16%
Market
8%
Confidence
16%
Scorer Markets

First Try Scorer

Team-normalised first-try share using the current lineups.

5 Plays
Sam WalkerQLD
halfFair 7.702+ 14%
$26.00
+9.1% edge
Model
13%
Market
4%
Confidence
13%
Robert ToiaQLD
backFair 7.912+ 13%
$19.00
+7.4% edge
Model
13%
Market
5%
Confidence
13%
Selwyn CobboQLD
backFair 6.262+ 19%
$11.00
+6.9% edge
Model
16%
Market
9%
Confidence
16%
James TedescoNSW
backFair 7.252+ 15%
$12.00
+5.5% edge
Model
14%
Market
8%
Confidence
14%
Cameron MunsterQLD
halfFair 11.762+ 7%
$26.00
+4.7% edge
Model
9%
Market
4%
Confidence
9%

How this tip was built

Origin matches aren't in the trained club-fixture model, so this is a transparent lineup-only scorer rather than a full XGBoost prediction.

For each player in both 17-man squads we pull their last 12 game-by-game ratings (centered around 0 — elite players average ~1.5, replacement-level ~0). Starters count at 100% weight, interchange players at 55%.

The weighted squad total difference plus a +0.30 NSW home-ground logit is passed through a logistic function (k=0.30) to produce the win probability. Margin uses the same scale (1 squad unit ≈ 2 points). The total is a flat 38-point base — Origin I historically grinds lower than club rugby league.

This model ignores combinations, Origin intangibles, debutant volatility, and weather. Gamble responsibly.