# NSW Blues v QLD Maroons — State of Origin Game 1 2026 AI Prediction

Wed 28 May 2026, 8:05pm AEST · Accor Stadium, Sydney
**Final: NSW Blues 22 - 20 QLD Maroons (NSW lead series 1-0)**

Series opener in Sydney. Alphr's lineup-rating model had NSW favourites and they delivered, edging Queensland 22-20.

- **Head to Head:** New South Wales to win @ $1.55 — model probability 90.1% (edge +28.8%) — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** New South Wales -4.5 @ $1.90 (edge +26.1%) — model margin 13.0 pts — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 42.5 @ $1.90 (edge +13.5%) — model total 38.0 — result: WON

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Canonical URL: https://alphr.com.au/nrl/match/2026-blues-v-maroons-state-of-origin-game-1
Prediction JSON API: today https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/today · this week https://alphr.com.au/api/predictions/weekly
Markdown view for AI agents. Machine-readable index: https://alphr.com.au/llms.txt · full reference: https://alphr.com.au/llms-full.txt
All predictions are published before kick-off and verified after full time. Free, no login. 18+ gamble responsibly (AU).
Last updated: 2026-07-11 18:19 UTC