# Raiders v Sharks — NRL Semi Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Raiders 12 – 32 Sharks

_Sharks devour Raiders._

Half time: 6 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Raiders 61% / Sharks 39% · GIO Stadium, Canberra · Sat, 20 Sept, 07:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Raiders: Corey Horsburgh (22' 1st), Savelio Tamale (46') · Sharks: Ronaldo Mulitalo (35' Tipped ⚡), Nicho Hynes (37'), Billy Burns (53'), KL Iro (63'), Teig Wilton (73')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 61% | Lost |
| Sharks | 39% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 4.2 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canberra Raiders vs Cronulla Sharks Prediction & Tips | NRL Semi Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Raiders 12–32 Sharks in NRL Semi Finals at GIO Stadium, Canberra. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Six points at the break, and it didn't look like much of a problem. By full time it was twenty, and the Sharks had simply outscored the Raiders three tries to nil across the middle of the second half to turn a tight arm wrestle into a rout.

The scoreboard at half-time read 12-6 Sharks, built off a stretch either side of the thirty-minute mark. Corey Horsburgh had put the Raiders up 4-0 in the 22nd minute, the kind of start that suggested a home side settling in nicely. Then Ronaldo Mulitalo and Nicho Hynes crossed inside three minutes of each other to flip it, and Canberra never led again. Savelio Tamale got the margin back to two just after the resumption, 10-12, and that's about as close as the contest ever came.

From there it was one-way traffic. Billy Burns, KL Iro and Teig Wilton all crossed between the 52nd and 73rd minutes, and each try stretched the margin rather than the Raiders clawing anything back. A two-point game became an eighteen-point one in the space of twenty-one minutes. That's the passage that decided it.

The stat sheet tells a slightly odd story given the final gap. Raiders actually completed at the same 78% and conceded fewer errors, 9 to 11. They out-offloaded the Sharks 14 to 4 and won the tackle-break count 46-42, which usually points to the busier, more dangerous side with ball in hand. None of it mattered much against a Sharks side that broke the line five times to four, ran for 1,687 metres to 1,528, and controlled the boot with 753 kick metres to 624. Cronulla did the two things that count most in this sort of game: they found the line more often, and they made Canberra do more of the chasing.

Defensively it was Canberra's effective tackle rate, 87.5% to 84.7%, that kept them honest without ever being enough. Discipline wasn't the difference either, the Raiders gave away two fewer penalties, 6 to 8. This wasn't lost at the whistle. It was lost in five-try execution against two.

Going in, the placement made sense of it. The Sharks carried the stronger halves pairing by a wide margin, 1369 to 1161, and the bigger edge out back, 917 to 761, and across five tries that's exactly where the game was decided, out wide and through the pivots. Canberra's form line, an average margin of minus-1 across their last five against Cronulla's plus-15.2, wasn't just noise either.

Alphr's model had Raiders as 61% favourites and picked them by 4.2 points. Instead Cronulla won by 20, one of the sharper misses on the board, though the total score read was tidy: 43 predicted against 44 actual, and the under 44.5 call landed. Wins and misses, all of it. The margin call here was a clear miss, and Canberra's ball-control numbers made it look closer on paper than it ever was on the field.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 6 | 6 | 12 |
| Sharks | 12 | 20 | 32 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Raiders | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| 78% | Completion rate | 78% |
| 1,528 | Run metres | **1,687** |
| **560** | Post-contact metres | 552 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| **46** | Tackle breaks | 42 |
| **14** | Offloads | 4 |
| **87.5%** | Effective tackle % | 84.7% |
| **42** | Missed tackles | 46 |
| **9** | Errors | 11 |
| **6** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 624 | Kick metres | **753** |

**Model Report Card**

Sharks defied the model's 61% prediction for Raiders, a notable upset. The margin model missed here, predicting 4.2 but the actual margin was 20 points. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 44, within 1 points. Sharks led 6–12 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/16 on this match. The under 44.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The 44-point combined total was right in line with Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 22' Try — Corey Horsburgh (Raiders) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 34' Try — Ronaldo Mulitalo (Sharks) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 37' Try — Nicho Hynes (Sharks) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 45' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 10-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 52' Try — Billy Burns (Sharks) — 12-16 · win-prob swing -7 pts
- 62' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 12-24 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 73' Try — Teig Wilton (Sharks) — 12-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Raiders to win @ $1.53 (edge +4.6%) — model probability 60.8% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Raiders -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge +4.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Raiders by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Raiders are the call at 61%, but Sharks stay live at 39%. The ratings say otherwise: Sharks sit 51 ELO points clear, 1630 to 1579, so the model is backing Raiders against the ratings gap. Form leans Sharks' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Raiders.

On paper Sharks shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The model still sides with Raiders, which says Forward Pack and Venue Advantage carry the most weight. The margin model has Raiders by 4.2, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Raiders, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four; Raiders are 11-3 at home this year. Raiders have won 6 games this season after trailing at half-time.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Raiders 5 · Sharks 5 |
| Last meeting | Raiders 24-20 |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders at home | 11-3 this season |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks away | 6-8 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 28W–20L | 58% |
| Sharks | 19W–15L | 56% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Grant Atkins, Raiders 28W–20L (58%) and Sharks 19W–15L (56%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Sharks get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Raiders's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Raiders | Stat | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 24.8pts | Avg Score | 30.4pts |
| 25.8pts | Avg Conceded | 15.2pts |
| -1.0pts | Avg Margin | 15.2pts |
| 1568.0m | Run Metres | 1657.4m |
| 4.4 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 361.4 | Tackles | 337.8 |
| 11.4 | Errors | 11.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Raiders | 3W–2L | 24.8 |
| Sharks | 4W–1L | 30.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Sharks lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Sharks | 20 – 24 | Raiders |
| 2026 | R4 | Raiders | 22 – 34 | Sharks |
| 2025 | R5 | Raiders | 24 – 20 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R8 | Raiders | 0 – 40 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R4 | Sharks | 36 – 22 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Raiders' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.16 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 5th there (1.24 conceded/game). Key man: Weekes, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked left edge attack (1.56 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.72 conceded/game). Key man: Mulitalo, 16 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.48/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.72/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.56/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 2.16/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.96/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.88/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.24/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.04/g (att 10th) · concedes 0.96/g (def 4th (strong)) | 0.8/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 9th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 20 · 6 | 18 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 2.1/g |
| Run Metres | 162m/g | 183m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.6/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.9% | 87.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 56 · 63 | 57 · 51 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 664m/g | 737m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.2/g | 17.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 76.3% | 80.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Raiders | Sharks |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 6th (strong) | 11th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 32 · 16 | 24 · 17 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 597m/g | 513m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10.2/g | 8.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91.7% | 90.3% |

**Who scores on Sharks** — Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.1) +30% · Hookers 0.17/g (lg 0.14) +21% · Centres 0.75/g (lg 0.69) +9%
**Who scores on Raiders** — Centres 0.99/g (lg 0.69) +43% · Props 0.24/g (lg 0.17) +41% · 2nd Rows 0.49/g (lg 0.44) +11%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at GIO Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 11 in 24g | 8/10g (0·1·3·0·1·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/3g | 12/24g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 43% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 6 in 17g | 3/10g (1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 32% | — | 🏉 46' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 10 in 24g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·2·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 18/50g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.25 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 9 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/8g | 21/50g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.00 AI 24% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jed Stuart | WG | 5 in 14g | 5/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 3/8g | 31% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 24% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 2 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 3/38g | 4% | — | — |
| 8 | Josh Papalii | PR | 3 in 23g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/26g | 30/132g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/11g | 6/57g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 5 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/18g | 10/94g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 11 in 21g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 6/12g | 24/61g | 34% | — | — |
| 12 | Zac Hosking | 2R | 5 in 20g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 7/16g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Corey Horsburgh | LK | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/6g | 3/45g | 8% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 2 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Simi Sasagi | 5/8 | 7 in 23g | 5/10g (0·1·0·1·1·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/6g | 4/18g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.20 AI 31% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 16 | Morgan Smithies | INT | 1 in 24g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/23g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 25g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/32g | 4% | — | — |

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 8 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 2/5g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Sione Katoa | WG | 5 in 13g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 8/11g | 3/4g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 3 in 22g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 5/11g | 3/7g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 10 in 12g | 7/10g (1·1·1·1·1·1·1·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/1g | 44% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 16 in 24g | 10/10g (0·0·0·1·2·0·2·3·0·2) | 9/12g | 2/5g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 35' |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 7 in 24g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 2/7g | 0/2g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 34% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 7 in 25g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/5g | 20% | — | 🏉 37' |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 6 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/16g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 3 in 25g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 3/11g | 2/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 10 | Toby Rudolf | PR | 1 in 15g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Billy Burns | 2R | 3 in 20g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/6g | 0/2g | 14% | — | 🏉 53' |
| 12 | Teig Wilton | 2R | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/3g | 16% | — | 🏉 73' |
| 13 | Jesse Colquhoun | LK | 1 in 17g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 5% | — | — |
| 14 | Briton Nikora | INT | 7 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 6/12g | 4/6g | 30% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 2 in 22g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/8g | 0/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Braden Uele | INT | 2 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0) | 1/11g | 1/6g | 12% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Sharks hold the ELO advantage (1630 vs 1579), but the market favours Raiders (@1.53). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Raiders 1579 · Sharks 1630 · ELO difference: 51 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Raiders | Sharks | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1093 (best 1327) | 1074 (best 1240) | Raiders +19 |
| Backs | 761 (best 868) | 917 (best 976) | Sharks +156 |
| Halves | 1161 (best 1161) | 1369 (best 1369) | Sharks +208 |
| Hooker | 1090 | 903 | Raiders +187 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Raiders |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Raiders |

**Model Confidence: 61%** — Raiders predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)