# Bulldogs v Panthers — NRL Semi Finals 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Bulldogs 26 – 46 Panthers

_Panthers maul Bulldogs._

Half time: 8 – 36 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Bulldogs 59% / Panthers 41% · Accor Stadium, Sydney · Sun, 21 Sept, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Bulldogs: Lachlan Galvin (16'), Jacob Preston (57' Tipped ⚡), Bronson Xerri (62'), Jacob Kiraz (77' Tipped ⚡) · Panthers: Brian To'o (7' 1st Tipped ⚡), Paul Alamoti (12' Tipped ⚡), Nathan Cleary (21' Tipped ⚡), Brian To'o (29' 1st Tipped ⚡), Liam Henry (33'), Isaiah Papali'i (38' Tipped ⚡), Paul Alamoti (54' Tipped ⚡), Paul Alamoti (70' Tipped ⚡)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 59% | Lost |
| Panthers | 41% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.1 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 0/2

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Canterbury Bulldogs vs Penrith Panthers Prediction & Tips | NRL Semi Finals 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Bulldogs 26–46 Panthers in NRL Semi Finals at Accor Stadium, Sydney. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Panthers beat the Bulldogs 46-26 at Accor Stadium, and the scoreline makes it look like a straightforward romp. It wasn't, not in the way the final margin suggests. At half-time Penrith led 36-8, meaning they built a 28-point buffer inside the opening 40 minutes, then were outscored 18-12 over the second half. The Panthers won the match in the first half and then simply tried to survive the second.

The first half was one-way traffic. Brian To'o opened the scoring in the 7th minute, and Paul Alamoti added his first four minutes later to make it 2-10. Lachlan Galvin got the Bulldogs on the board in the 16th, but Penrith kept coming: Nathan Cleary crossed in the 21st, To'o scored his second in the 28th, Liam Henry made it four tries in half an hour with one in the 32nd, and Isaiah Papali'i rounded out the burst in the 38th. By the break it was 36-8 and the game looked over.

It nearly was, except the Bulldogs came out and played the second half like a different team. Alamoti struck again in the 53rd for his hat-trick try to push it to 40-8, but from there Canterbury clawed back. Jacob Preston scored in the 56th, Bronson Xerri in the 61st, and suddenly it was 18-40 with real questions being asked. Alamoti's third try in the 69th steadied Penrith at 44-20, but Jacob Kiraz's try in the 77th made the final gap 20 points rather than the 28 it had been at the break.

The stats back up that split personality. Panthers finished with 51% of possession and an 85% completion rate to the Bulldogs' 77%, control that mattered most in that first-half blitz. They also ran for 1,791 metres to 1,481, made 496 post-contact metres to 413, and broke the line eight times to five. Canterbury actually offloaded more, 12 to 10, but couldn't turn that ball-in-hand work into first-half points when it counted.

Defensively it was Canterbury's tackling that let them down. They missed 50 tackles to Penrith's 39, even though their effective tackle percentage of 85.5% was actually higher than Penrith's 83.8%, a reminder that raw missed-tackle counts and efficiency rates don't always tell the same story. Penrith conceded more penalties too, eight to four, which the Bulldogs used to build field position in that second-half fightback.

Individually, To'o and Alamoti did the most damage, combining for five of Penrith's eight tries. Alamoti's hat-trick either side of half-time was the difference between a competitive game and a blowout. For the Bulldogs, Preston, Xerri and Kiraz all crossed in the second half as Canterbury threw everything at closing the gap, but the first-half deficit was always going to be too much to fully overturn.

Coming in, the numbers had this closer than it looked on paper too. Penrith's halves rating of 1100 to Canterbury's 870 was always going to be telling, and so it proved. Alphr's model had Bulldogs favoured by 3.1 points on a combined total of 42, but Penrith won by 20 in a 72-point shootout, 30 points clear of the total tip. The model's now 6/15 on this fixture, and this one won't help the ledger.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 8 | 18 | 26 |
| Panthers | 36 | 10 | 46 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Bulldogs | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 49% | Possession | **51%** |
| 77% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,481 | Run metres | **1,791** |
| 413 | Post-contact metres | **496** |
| 5 | Line breaks | **8** |
| 39 | Tackle breaks | **50** |
| **12** | Offloads | 10 |
| **85.5%** | Effective tackle % | 83.8% |
| 50 | Missed tackles | **39** |
| 11 | Errors | 11 |
| **4** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| 546 | Kick metres | **562** |

**Model Report Card**

Panthers defied the model's 59% prediction for Bulldogs, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.1 but the actual margin was 20 points. The game's 72 points came in 30 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 6/15 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The combined score of 72 points was 29 points above Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Despite Ashley Klein's 60% career home-team win rate, the away side Panthers prevailed.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 7' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 2-4 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 11' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 2-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 16' Try — Lachlan Galvin (Bulldogs) — 6-12 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 21' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 8-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 28' Try — Brian To'o (Panthers) — 8-22 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 32' Try — Liam Henry (Panthers) — 8-28 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 38' Try — Isaiah Papali'i (Panthers) — 8-34 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 53' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 8-40 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 56' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 12-40 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 61' Try — Bronson Xerri (Bulldogs) — 18-40 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 69' Try — Paul Alamoti (Panthers) — 20-44 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 77' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 24-46 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.91 (edge +8.7%) — model probability 58.7% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs @ $1.91 (edge +8.7%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 3

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Bulldogs are the call at 59%, but Panthers stay live at 41%. The ratings say otherwise: Panthers sit 65 ELO points clear, 1588 to 1522, so the model is backing Bulldogs against the ratings gap. Form leans Panthers' way: 2 from their last 5, against 1 for Bulldogs.

On paper Panthers shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Halves Control. The model still sides with Bulldogs, which says Backline Quality and Referee Tendency carry the most weight. The margin model has Bulldogs by 3.1, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Bulldogs, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Panthers have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Panthers took the most recent meeting 24-10 in 2026 Round 26.

Bulldogs have lost 3 straight. Panthers have put up 124 points in four games.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Bulldogs 2 · Panthers 8 |
| Last meeting | Panthers 24-10 |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs at home | 9-4 this season |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers away | 9-6 this season |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Balanced

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 23W–18L | 56% |
| Panthers | 30W–28L | 52% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Both sides have a similar record under Ashley Klein, Bulldogs 23W–18L (56%) and Panthers 30W–28L (52%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Bulldogs | Stat | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 15.6pts | Avg Score | 20.4pts |
| 21.2pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -5.6pts | Avg Margin | 0.8pts |
| 1585.6m | Run Metres | 1706.6m |
| 5.6 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 364.0 | Tackles | 403.6 |
| 11.6 | Errors | 11.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 1W–4L | 15.6 |
| Panthers | 2W–3L | 20.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Panthers | 24 – 10 | Bulldogs |
| 2026 | R6 | Bulldogs | 32 – 16 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R26 | Bulldogs | 28 – 4 | Panthers |
| 2025 | R17 | Panthers | 8 – 6 | Bulldogs |
| 2024 | R10 | Panthers | 16 – 10 | Bulldogs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 5th-ranked right edge attack (1.24 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 6th there (1.04 conceded/game). Key man: Preston, 11 tries in that channel this season.
- Panthers' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.52 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 4th there (1.08 conceded/game). Key man: McLean, 14 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Bulldogs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.96/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1.08/g (def 4th (strong)) | 1.52/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.12/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.52/g (att 9th) · concedes 0.96/g (def 1st (strong)) | 1.64/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.16/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 1.24/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.92/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.92/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.04/g (def 6th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Bulldogs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 12th |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 13 · 8 | 12 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 0.8/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 209m/g | 202m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.6/g | 3.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.8% | 84.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Bulldogs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 7th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 44 · 45 | 61 · 45 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 762m/g | 792m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.2/g | 17.2/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.1/g | 3.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.8% | 80.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Bulldogs | Panthers |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 13th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 27 · 15 | 16 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 445m/g | 500m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.2/g | 7.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 91.3% |

**Who scores on Panthers** — 2nd Rows 0.44/g (lg 0.44) +0% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0% · Fullbacks 0.38/g (lg 0.42) -10%
**Who scores on Bulldogs** — 2nd Rows 0.51/g (lg 0.44) +16% · Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Centres 0.7/g (lg 0.69) +1%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Accor Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 4 in 23g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 3/21g | 12% | — | — |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 10 in 18g | 6/10g (0·0·1·2·1·0·0·1·0·1) | 1/5g | 8/29g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 37% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 77' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 8 in 23g | 2/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 5/21g | 32% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 4 | Matt Burton | CE | 6 in 20g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 3/6g | 14/35g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 34% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jethro Rinakama | WG | 3 in 8g | 3/8g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 2/3g | 38% | — | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 4 in 23g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/3g | 3/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 16' |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 3 in 17g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 2 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/36g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Bailey Hayward | INT | 1 in 25g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/20g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh Curran | INT | 4 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 4/22g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 6 in 21g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 8/29g | 26% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 11 in 21g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·3·0·0) | 4/3g | 8/23g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 57' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 2 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/27g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 21g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/13g | 8/29g | 8% | — | — |
| 15 | Sitili Tupouniua | PR | 3 in 11g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 3/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 16 | Harry Hayes | INT | 1 in 22g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/12g | 5% | — | — |
| 17 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 3 in 24g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/11g | 5/47g | 12% | — | — |

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 6 in 18g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/11g | 4/16g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 12 in 22g | 5/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/3g | 4/12g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.20 AI 39% ✓ Scored | 🏉 12' 54' 70' |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 7 in 23g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/10g | 28% | — | — |
| 4 | Casey McLean | CE | 16 in 23g | 10/10g (0·0·2·1·1·2·0·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.35 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Brian To'o | WG | 6 in 14g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 4/7g | 11/14g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 38% ✓ Scored | 🏉 7' 29' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 6 in 21g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/2g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 5 in 20g | 4/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 2/12g | 5/17g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 28% ✓ Scored | 🏉 21' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 24g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/18g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 4 in 24g | 4/10g (0·1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/4g | 1/7g | 22% | — | — |
| 11 | Scott Sorensen | 2R | 3 in 16g | 3/10g (0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 1/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 3 in 19g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/8g | 4/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 19g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/15g | 1/23g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Bradley Schneider | INT | 2 in 23g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 2/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Liam Henry | INT | 2 in 21g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 10% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 16 | Isaiah Papali'i | INT | 6 in 21g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·1) | 0/8g | 2/14g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.25 AI 41% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $41.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | 🏉 38' |
| 17 | Luke Garner | INT | 5 in 21g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 7/10g | 4/12g | 22% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Panthers hold the ELO advantage (1588 vs 1522), but the market favours Bulldogs (@1.91). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Bulldogs 1522 · Panthers 1588 · ELO difference: 65 in favour of Panthers

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Bulldogs | Panthers | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1057 (best 1224) | 1140 (best 1303) | Panthers +82 |
| Backs | 1121 (best 1359) | 1032 (best 1150) | Bulldogs +89 |
| Halves | 870 (best 870) | 1100 (best 1100) | Panthers +230 |
| Hooker | 1200 | 847 | Bulldogs +353 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Panthers |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Panthers |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Bulldogs |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Bulldogs |

**Model Confidence: 59%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 0/2 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)