# Wests Tigers v Dragons — NRL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Wests Tigers 34 – 28 Dragons

_Wests Tigers hold off a fast-finishing Dragons._

Half time: 26 – 10 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Wests Tigers 54% / Dragons 46% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 03 May, 07:45 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Wests Tigers: Charlie Staines (10' Tipped ⚡), Sunia Turuva (20' Tipped ⚡), Charlie Staines (28' Tipped ⚡), Samuela Fainu (32'), Jahream Bula (40' Tipped ⚡), Adam Doueihi (71') · Dragons: Dylan Egan (6' 1st), Valentine Holmes (15' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Liddle (52' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Liddle (56' Tipped ⚡), Hamish Stewart (77')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 54% | Won |
| Dragons | 46% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 2.3 predicted → 6 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Wests Tigers vs St George Illawarra Dragons Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Wests Tigers 34–28 Dragons in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Wests Tigers played the patient game. Dragons played the loose, ambitious one, backing themselves to bust the line and offload their way through trouble. Both approaches worked, in patches. Wests Tigers won 34-28 at Suncorp Stadium, and the split in styles explains almost everything about how a big first-half lead still finished as an arm-wrestle.

The completion numbers tell the control story. Wests Tigers finished at 78%, Dragons at 76%, with possession dead even at 50-50. Not a huge gap, but it mattered in the moments that counted. Where the split gets stark is in what each side did once they actually had the ball. Dragons ran for 1,718 metres to 1,618, broke the line 12 times to 2, and busted 42 tackles to 16. Those are the numbers of a team happy to play with ambition and back its footwork. Wests Tigers, by contrast, looked content to hold the ball, complete their sets and let field position do the work rather than force it through traffic.

That contrast showed up early. Dylan Egan opened the scoring in the 5th minute for the Dragons, and it looked like the visitors might ride that line-busting game all night. But Wests Tigers responded through Charlie Staines in the 10th, and from there it was one-way traffic. Sunia Turuva levelled things at 10-10 in the 20th minute, then Staines crossed for his second in the 28th, Samuela Fainu added another in the 31st and Jahream Bula grabbed one right on the stroke of half-time. Wests Tigers led 26-10 at the break, built almost entirely from moments when patience turned into points rather than raw metres turning into tries.

The Dragons came out swinging in the second half. Jacob Liddle scored twice in three minutes, in the 52nd and 55th, to drag the margin back to six points at 26-20. It was exactly the kind of comeback their line-break and tackle-bust numbers suggest they were capable of. Wests Tigers steadied through Adam Doueihi in the 71st minute to push the lead back out, but Hamish Stewart's try in the 77th made it 34-28 and ensured a nervy finish.

Defensively, the ledger flips the other way entirely. Wests Tigers missed 42 tackles to the Dragons' 16, and their effective tackle rate of 82.5% was well below the Dragons' 91.1%. That's a huge gap, and it's a big reason the Dragons kept finding ways back into the contest despite trailing by 24 at one stage. Errors were close, 11 to 12, and penalties were even at 4 apiece, so neither side was giving away cheap field position through ill-discipline. The differences were in execution with the ball and, more glaringly, in defensive execution without it.

Alphr's model had Dragons as narrow 2.3-point favourites going in, with a combined score of 42 points. The final margin of 6 wasn't far off that prediction, but the 62 total points blew the total out by 21. The model called the winner correctly at 54% probability, part of a 6-from-16 night for Alphr's tips. On this occasion, backing the value pick paid off, even if the shape of the game, an early avalanche followed by a nervous back half, wasn't quite what anyone had drawn up.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 26 | 8 | 34 |
| Dragons | 10 | 18 | 28 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 50% | Possession | 50% |
| **78%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| 1,618 | Run metres | **1,718** |
| **546** | Post-contact metres | 542 |
| 2 | Line breaks | **12** |
| 16 | Tackle breaks | **42** |
| 13 | Offloads | 13 |
| 82.5% | Effective tackle % | **91.1%** |
| 42 | Missed tackles | **16** |
| **11** | Errors | 12 |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| 461 | Kick metres | **481** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Wests Tigers to win at 54% probability. The predicted margin of 2.3 was reasonable against the actual 6-point result. The game's 62 points came in 21 points higher than the predicted 42. The model went 6/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Wyatt Raymond officiated this match (60 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 12 points above Wyatt Raymond's career average of 50. Wests Tigers's victory aligns with Wyatt Raymond's historical trend, Wests Tigers have a 40% win rate under this referee. Wests Tigers's home victory fits Wyatt Raymond's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 5' Try — Dylan Egan (Dragons) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 10' Try — Charlie Staines (Wests Tigers) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +7 pts
- 15' Try — Valentine Holmes (Dragons) — 6-10 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 20' Try — Sunia Turuva (Wests Tigers) — 10-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 28' Try — Charlie Staines (Wests Tigers) — 16-10 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 31' Try — Samuela Fainu (Wests Tigers) — 20-10 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 39' Try — Jahream Bula (Wests Tigers) — 24-10 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 52' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 26-14 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 55' Try — Jacob Liddle (Dragons) — 26-20 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 71' Try — Adam Doueihi (Wests Tigers) — 32-22 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 77' Try — Hamish Stewart (Dragons) — 34-26 · win-prob swing -2 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Wests Tigers to win @ $1.90 (edge -0.6%) — model probability 54.3% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Dragons -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -0.6%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +7.4%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Dragons by 2 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Wests Tigers are the call at 54%, but Dragons stay live at 46%. The ratings say otherwise: Dragons sit 24 ELO points clear, 1419 to 1396, so the model is backing Wests Tigers against the ratings gap. Form leans Dragons' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Wests Tigers.

Wests Tigers own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including Backline Quality, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The margin model has Dragons by 2.3, with the two sides combining for about 42. Lean Wests Tigers, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Dragons have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Dragons took the most recent meeting 24-22 in 2026 Round 24.

Wests Tigers have lost 3 straight. Dragons have lost 4 straight; Dragons have leaked 134 in their last four; Dragons are 2-10 on the road this year.

On the ladder it's Wests Tigers 9th against Dragons 10th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Wests Tigers 3 · Dragons 7 |
| Last meeting | Dragons 24-22 |
| Wests Tigers last 4 | WLLL · 92 for, 106 against |
| Wests Tigers at home | 5-7 this season |
| Dragons last 4 | LLLL · 54 for, 134 against |
| Dragons away | 2-10 this season |
| Ladder | Wests Tigers 9th · Dragons 10th |
| Finals odds | Wests Tigers 0% · Dragons 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Wests Tigers

**Wyatt Raymond** — 60 career games since 2024.

| Team | Record under Wyatt Raymond | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 4W–6L | 40% |
| Dragons | 2W–4L | 33% |

Avg total: 50.0 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

Wests Tigers hold a 7-point edge: 4W–6L (40%) vs Dragons's 2W–4L (33%). Games average 50.0 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style. Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg). Small sample (6 games for Dragons).

Wests Tigers get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Wyatt Raymond vs Dragons's +0.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Wests Tigers | Stat | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 22.4pts |
| 26.4pts | Avg Conceded | 22.2pts |
| -4.4pts | Avg Margin | 0.2pts |
| 1641.2m | Run Metres | 1687.4m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 315.2 | Tackles | 356.0 |
| 10.0 | Errors | 12.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Wests Tigers | 2W–3L | 22.0 |
| Dragons | 3W–2L | 22.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Dragons lead 5-0

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R24 | Wests Tigers | 22 – 24 | Dragons |
| 2026 | R18 | Dragons | 24 – 10 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R14 | Dragons | 56 – 14 | Wests Tigers |
| 2024 | R6 | Wests Tigers | 12 – 24 | Dragons |
| 2023 | R21 | Dragons | 18 – 14 | Wests Tigers |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Wests Tigers' best path is the middle: NRL's 13th-ranked middle attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Dragons defence ranked 17th there (2.29 conceded/game). Key man: Bula, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Dragons' best path is the middle: NRL's 9th-ranked middle attack (1.43 tries/game) runs at a Wests Tigers defence ranked 12th there (1.75 conceded/game). Key man: Flanagan, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Wests Tigers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) | 1.43/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.25/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.75/g (def 12th) | 1.43/g (att 9th) · concedes 2.29/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.38/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 0.5/g (def 1st (strong)) | 0.71/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.86/g (def 5th (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 8th |
| Defence rank | 9th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 5 | 4 · 6 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 243m/g | 167m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 2.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.9% | 87.5% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 4th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 5th (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 15 | 19 · 14 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 2.3/g |
| Run Metres | 641m/g | 766m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 13.6/g | 14.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 2.8/g | 4.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.6% | 79.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Wests Tigers | Dragons |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 3 | 1 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0/g |
| Run Metres | 567m/g | 483m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.1/g | 6.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 90.6% | 92.6% |

**Who scores on Dragons** — Five-Eighths 0.4/g (lg 0.27) +48% · 2nd Rows 0.65/g (lg 0.45) +44% · Props 0.22/g (lg 0.16) +38%
**Who scores on Wests Tigers** — Fullbacks 0.61/g (lg 0.44) +39% · Wingers 1.68/g (lg 1.26) +33% · Five-Eighths 0.36/g (lg 0.27) +33%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Wests Tigers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jahream Bula | FB | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (0·2·1·0·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.40 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 40' |
| 2 | Sunia Turuva | WG | 8 in 8g | 9/10g (0·1·0·3·2·0·1·1·0·1) | 1/3g | 2/5g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.91 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 20' |
| 3 | Adam Doueihi | CE | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 6/9g | 26% | — | 🏉 71' |
| 5 | Brent Naden | CE | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/5g | 5/13g | 18% | — | — |
| 6 | Lachlan Galvin | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 13% | — | — |
| 7 | Jarome Luai | HB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/17g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Terrell May | PR | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 2/4g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Apisai Koroisau | HK | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 6/18g | 24% | — | — |
| 10 | Fonua Pole | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 0/6g | 16% | — | — |
| 11 | Samuela Fainu | 2R | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 15% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 12 | Alex Seyfarth | 2R | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/7g | 1/9g | 20% | — | — |
| 13 | Alex Twal | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 0/12g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Tallyn Da Silva | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 16% | — | — |
| 15 | Royce Hunt | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 16 | Jack Bird | INT | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 2/17g | 18% | — | — |
| 17 | Sione Fainu | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 13% | — | 🏉 32' |

**Dragons** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Clinton Gutherson | FB | 2 in 7g | 6/10g (0·2·2·0·0·0·2·0·0·0) | 10/17g | 6/13g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.55 AI 48% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Tyrell Sloan | WG | 7 in 6g | 9/10g (0·0·2·0·2·0·0·2·2·1) | 1/5g | 2/5g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.98 AI 71% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Moses Suli | CE | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 3/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 4 | Valentine Holmes | CE | 2 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 12/13g | 4/11g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 5 | Corey Allan | WG | no games | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 4/7g | 0/6g | 12% | — | — |
| 6 | Kyle Flanagan | 5/8 | 4 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 2/8g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.20 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 7 | Lyhkan King-Togia | HB | no games | 1/5g (0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 20% | — | — |
| 8 | Toby Couchman | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Damien Cook | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/18g | 4/20g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | David Klemmer | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 0/15g | 2% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Egan | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | 🏉 6' |
| 12 | Jaydn Su'A | 2R | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 2/26g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Hamish Stewart | LK | 0 in 6g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | 🏉 77' |
| 14 | Jacob Liddle | INT | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (0·0·1·1·0·1·0·0·1·0) | 0/3g | 1/8g | 26% | ⚡ Anytime Try $7.00 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 52' 56' |
| 15 | Jack De Belin | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/19g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Emre Guler | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Luciano Leilua | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 2/11g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dragons hold the ELO advantage (1419 vs 1396), but the market favours Wests Tigers (@1.90). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Wests Tigers 1396 · Dragons 1419 · ELO difference: 24 in favour of Dragons

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Wests Tigers | Dragons | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1061 (best 1274) | 1089 (best 1213) | Dragons +28 |
| Backs | 1046 (best 1110) | 985 (best 1070) | Wests Tigers +61 |
| Halves | 1205 (best 1205) | 985 (best 985) | Wests Tigers +220 |
| Hooker | 1123 | 1153 | Dragons +30 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Dragons |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dragons |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dragons |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Wests Tigers |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Wests Tigers predicted to win by 2 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)