Win Probability
AI Game Review
Warriors defied the model's 54% prediction for Cowboys, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. A tough result for the model, all 3 picks missed on this one.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Adam Gee officiated this match (295 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Warriors bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 53% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 57% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 13.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 69% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Warriors
46%
Cowboys
54%
AI Match Overview
Cowboys hold the advantage at 54% win probability, though Warriors are far from out of this at 46%. Warriors are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency, but Cowboys counter with ELO Difference and Backline Quality which tips the scales. Cowboys carry a 38-point ELO rating advantage (1552 vs 1514). The margin model predicts Cowboys by 3.9 points with a combined total of 41.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Cowboys to Win @1.85
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.2%
Line / Spread
Cowboys +1.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.2%
Total Points
Under 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+8.3%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Warriors | W W W W L | 20.0 |
Cowboys | W W W W L | 28.4 |
Avg Conceded
20.4
Warriors
19.6
Cowboys
Avg Margin
-0.4
Warriors
8.8
Cowboys
Run Metres
1801
Warriors
1828
Cowboys
Line Breaks
3.8
Warriors
6.6
Cowboys
Referee Indicator
Favours CowboysAdam Gee
295 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Adam Gee refs each team (vs any opponent)
Cowboys hold a 6-point edge: 21W–19L (53%) vs Warriors's 15W–17L (47%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.8 pts
Home Win %
57%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.24
SB Away %
69%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Adam Gee averages 13.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.3 against home vs 7.4 against away. Cowboys get a +0.9 penalty advantage under Adam Gee vs Warriors's +0.2. 69% of his 36 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
54%
Cowboys predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 41 · Line: -3.9
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