# Warriors v Cowboys — NRL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Warriors 30 – 26 Cowboys

_Warriors survive a scare against Cowboys._

Half time: 28 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Warriors 46% / Cowboys 54% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 03 May, 05:30 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Warriors: Luke Metcalf (7' 1st Tipped 🎯), Edward Kosi (11' Tipped ⚡), Chanel Harris-Tavita (22'), Luke Metcalf (28' 1st Tipped 🎯), Adam Pompey (40') · Cowboys: Jaxon Purdue (14' Tipped ⚡), Tom Dearden (32'), Robert Derby (55' Tipped ⚡), Murray Taulagi (59' Tipped ⚡), Jeremiah Nanai (63')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Cowboys | 54% | Lost |
| Warriors | 46% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 4 actual · Markets hit: 0/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**New Zealand Warriors vs North Queensland Cowboys Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Warriors 30–26 Cowboys in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The model had Cowboys by 3.9 points before kick-off, backing them at 54%. The Warriors won 30-26. Close enough on the margin, wrong on the winner, and that's the story of this one in a nutshell.

Where the read really came unstuck was the opening quarter. Luke Metcalf scored inside six minutes, Edward Kosi added a second by the 11th, and by the time Chanel Harris-Tavita crossed in the 22nd the Warriors were sitting on a lead nobody had them down for. Metcalf's second try in the 27th and Adam Pompey's just before the break had the Warriors up 28-12 at half-time. Cowboys had replies through Jaxon Purdue and Tom Dearden in that same period, but they were chasing the whole way.

The Warriors built that lead the tidy way. They completed at 80% against the Cowboys's 73%, and gave up just 10 errors to the Cowboys's 13. Against a Cowboys forward pack rated only marginally ahead pre-match (1100 to 1125), that discipline with the footy mattered early, and it's a fair chunk of why the Warriors led by 16 at the break despite doing far less of the actual work with the ball.

Because the Cowboys did plenty of that work. They had 55% of possession, ran for 1,818 metres to the Warriors's 1,559, and punished contact for 614 post-contact metres against 483. Their backline, rated well clear of the Warriors's before kick-off (1142 to 971), showed up in the tackle-bust column too: 36 to 25. That's the kind of gap that normally drags a game away from you, and it very nearly did.

The second half was the Cowboys clawing back through exactly that forward and outside-back pressure. Robert Derby went over in the 55th, Murray Taulagi in the 58th, Jeremiah Nanai in the 62nd, and suddenly a 16-point margin was down to six. Three tries in seven minutes will do that to a scoreboard. The Warriors just had enough in the bank from that first-half burst to survive it, with no further scoring after Nanai's try to close it out.

What actually held the Warriors up wasn't the collision stats, because they lost most of those. It was the kicking game, 718 metres to the Cowboys's 478, and it was defence when it counted most, an 89.5% effective tackle rate that, while below the Cowboys's 91.3%, still did the job in the moments that mattered even as they missed 36 tackles to the Cowboys's 25. Line breaks were dead level at five apiece, offloads went the Cowboys's way three to six, but none of it added up to enough tries to get past four early ones from Metcalf's boot and boot alone.

Form-wise this was the Cowboys's kind of game on paper, a side averaging 28.4 points a game against a Warriors outfit averaging 20, with an average margin of plus-8.8 against the Warriors's minus-0.4. On the day the form line and the ratings pointed one way and the scoreboard went the other. The model's margin was close. The winner wasn't. Nights like this are exactly why the tracker exists.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 28 | 2 | 30 |
| Cowboys | 12 | 14 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Warriors | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| **80%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| 1,559 | Run metres | **1,818** |
| 483 | Post-contact metres | **614** |
| 5 | Line breaks | 5 |
| 25 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 3 | Offloads | **6** |
| 89.5% | Effective tackle % | **91.3%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **25** |
| **10** | Errors | 13 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 5 |
| **718** | Kick metres | 478 |

**Model Report Card**

Warriors defied the model's 54% prediction for Cowboys, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 4-point result. The model went 6/16 on this match.

**Referee Watch**

Adam Gee officiated this match (313 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 13 points above Adam Gee's career average of 43. Warriors bucked the trend, Cowboys historically win 54% of games under Adam Gee, but couldn't convert that edge today. Warriors's home victory fits Adam Gee's profile, home teams win 58% of the time under this referee. Adam Gee averaged 12 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile. 64% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 11' Try — Edward Kosi (Warriors) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 14' Try — Jaxon Purdue (Cowboys) — 10-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 22' Try — Chanel Harris-Tavita (Warriors) — 14-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 27' Try — Luke Metcalf (Warriors) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 32' Try — Tom Dearden (Cowboys) — 22-10 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 39' Try — Adam Pompey (Warriors) — 26-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 55' Try — Robert Derby (Cowboys) — 30-16 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 58' Try — Murray Taulagi (Cowboys) — 30-20 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 62' Try — Jeremiah Nanai (Cowboys) — 30-24 · win-prob swing -4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Cowboys to win @ $1.85 (edge -5.2%) — model probability 54.0% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Cowboys +1.5 @ $1.91 (edge -5.2%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.3%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Cowboys by 4 · Predicted total: 41

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Cowboys are the call at 54%, but Warriors stay live at 46%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Cowboys sit 38 ELO points clear, 1552 to 1514.

On paper Warriors shade it, ahead on 4 of 7 factors including Forward Pack, Halves Control and Referee Tendency. The model still sides with Cowboys, which says ELO Difference and Backline Quality carry the most weight. The margin model has Cowboys by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 41. Lean Cowboys, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Warriors have won 8 of the last 10 between these two, and Warriors took the most recent meeting 38-20 in 2026 Round 16.

Warriors have lost 3 straight. Cowboys have put up 120 points in four games. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Warriors 3, Cowboys 3.

On the ladder it's Warriors 4th against Cowboys 6th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Warriors 8 · Cowboys 2 |
| Last meeting | Warriors 38-20 |
| Warriors last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 95 against |
| Warriors at home | 7-6 this season |
| Cowboys last 4 | LWWL · 120 for, 89 against |
| Cowboys away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Warriors 4th · Cowboys 6th |
| Finals odds | Warriors 100% · Cowboys 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Cowboys

**Adam Gee** — 313 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Adam Gee | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 17W–20L | 46% |
| Cowboys | 22W–19L | 54% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 58% · Home bias: Leans home

Cowboys hold a 8-point edge: 22W–19L (54%) vs Warriors's 17W–20L (46%). Home teams win 58% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Adam Gee averages 12 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.5 against home vs 6.6 against away. 64% of his 124 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Warriors | Stat | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| 4.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 20.0pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 20.4pts | Avg Conceded | 19.6pts |
| -0.4pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 1801.2m | Run Metres | 1828.2m |
| 3.8 | Line Breaks | 6.6 |
| 359.8 | Tackles | 335.8 |
| 10.4 | Errors | 12.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Warriors | 4W–1L | 20.0 |
| Cowboys | 4W–1L | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Warriors lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Warriors | 38 – 20 | Cowboys |
| 2024 | R14 | Cowboys | 12 – 42 | Warriors |
| 2023 | R7 | Warriors | 22 – 14 | Cowboys |
| 2023 | R3 | Cowboys | 12 – 26 | Warriors |
| 2022 | R23 | Cowboys | 48 – 4 | Warriors |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Warriors' best path is the right edge: NRL's 6th-ranked right edge attack (1.14 tries/game) runs at a Cowboys defence ranked 15th there (1.57 conceded/game). Key man: Niukore, 2 tries in that channel this season.
- Cowboys' best path is the right edge: NRL's 1st-ranked right edge attack (1.86 tries/game) runs at a Warriors defence ranked 2nd there (0.57 conceded/game). Key man: Purdue, 6 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Warriors | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.29/g (def 10th) | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.57/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.71/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 9th) | 1.29/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1.14/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1.86/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.57/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Warriors | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 7th | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 3 | 5 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 214m/g | 209m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.7/g | 4.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 87.2% | 88.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Warriors | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 16th (weak) | 3rd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 11 · 15 | 20 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 655m/g | 737m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.4/g | 15.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.9/g | 4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 81.6% | 78.9% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Warriors | Cowboys |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 7th | 15th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 11th | 16th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 5 | 3 · 10 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.1/g |
| Run Metres | 541m/g | 457m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.6/g | 6.9/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.3% | 90% |

**Who scores on Cowboys** — Props 0.28/g (lg 0.16) +75% · Locks 0.16/g (lg 0.11) +45% · Five-Eighths 0.3/g (lg 0.27) +11%
**Who scores on Warriors** — Halfbacks 0.22/g (lg 0.21) +5% · Fullbacks 0.43/g (lg 0.44) -2% · Wingers 1.21/g (lg 1.26) -4%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Warriors** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Charnze Nicoll-Klokstad | FB | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 2/8g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | Taine Tuaupiki | WG | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/5g | 7% | — | — |
| 3 | Rocco Berry | CE | 1 in 2g | 5/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·2·0·1·0) | 3/3g | 1/4g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Adam Pompey | CE | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 2/7g | 2/8g | 18% | — | 🏉 40' |
| 6 | Chanel Harris-Tavita | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/4g | 16% | — | 🏉 22' |
| 7 | Luke Metcalf | HB | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 39% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.90 AI 47% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $17.00 AI 7% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 7' 28' |
| 8 | Marata Niukore | PR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 1/11g | 18% | — | — |
| 9 | Wayde Egan | HK | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/9g | 1/8g | 16% | — | — |
| 10 | Mitchell Barnett | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/8g | 2/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Kurt Capewell | 2R | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/13g | 9/35g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Leka Halasima | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 29% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.20 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 13 | Erin Clark | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/9g | 1/11g | 4% | — | — |
| 14 | Te Maire Martin | Replacement | 0 in 2g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/15g | 18% | — | — |
| 15 | Jackson Ford | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Demitric Vaimauga | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/2g | 4% | — | — |
| 17 | Bunty Afoa | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/9g | 2% | — | — |

**Cowboys** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Scott Drinkwater | FB | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/7g | 5/11g | 34% | — | — |
| 2 | Robert Derby | WG | 4 in 5g | 4/6g (0·0·1·0·0·3) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 55' |
| 3 | Jaxon Purdue | CE | 6 in 7g | 6/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·1·2·1) | 0/1g | 1/1g | 43% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 62% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 14' |
| 4 | Viliami Vailea | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 1/4g | 20% | — | — |
| 5 | Murray Taulagi | WG | 6 in 7g | 9/10g (2·1·0·0·0·1·1·2·1·1) | 5/6g | 5/12g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.96 AI 72% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 10% ✗ Not first | 🏉 59' |
| 6 | Tom Dearden | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 7/21g | 26% | — | 🏉 32' |
| 7 | Jake Clifford | HB | 3 in 5g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 2/6g | 22% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.00 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 8 | Jordan McLean | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Reece Robson | HK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 2/7g | 0/11g | 10% | — | — |
| 10 | Jason Taumalolo | PR | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/17g | 0/21g | 0% | — | — |
| 11 | John Bateman | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 4% | — | — |
| 12 | Jeremiah Nanai | 2R | 2 in 6g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/5g | 7/7g | 34% | — | 🏉 63' |
| 13 | Reuben Cotter | LK | 0 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 2/10g | 16% | — | — |
| 14 | Sam McIntyre | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/3g | 0/9g | 12% | — | — |
| 15 | Harrison Edwards | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Griffin Neame | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/8g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Coen Hess | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/12g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Warriors 1514 · Cowboys 1552 · ELO difference: 38 in favour of Cowboys

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Warriors | Cowboys | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1125 (best 1320) | 1100 (best 1266) | Warriors +24 |
| Backs | 971 (best 1101) | 1142 (best 1201) | Cowboys +171 |
| Halves | 1150 (best 1150) | 1092 (best 1092) | Warriors +58 |
| Hooker | 1241 | 1200 | Warriors +41 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Cowboys |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Warriors |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Cowboys |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Warriors |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Cowboys |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Warriors |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Warriors |

**Model Confidence: 54%** — Cowboys predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 41 pts

**Record:** 0/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)