Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Bulldogs led 8–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Todd Smith officiated this match (105 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 10 points above Todd Smith's career average of 46.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Titans
30%
Bulldogs
70%
AI Match Overview
Bulldogs are clear favourites here at 70%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Titans. The model sees Bulldogs ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Bulldogs carry a 249-point ELO rating advantage (1581 vs 1332). Recent form favours Bulldogs with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 1 for Titans. The margin model predicts Bulldogs by 9.5 points with a combined total of 42.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Bulldogs to Win @1.24
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.7%
Line / Spread
Bulldogs +12.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-7.7%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+19.5%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Titans | W L L L L | 18.8 |
Bulldogs | W W W W L | 21.2 |
Avg Conceded
33.2
Titans
11.2
Bulldogs
Avg Margin
-14.4
Titans
10.0
Bulldogs
Run Metres
1531
Titans
1682
Bulldogs
Line Breaks
3.2
Titans
4.6
Bulldogs
Referee Indicator
BalancedTodd Smith
105 career games · since 2019
Win rate when Todd Smith refs each team (vs any opponent)
Both sides have a similar record under Todd Smith, Titans 5W–6L (45%) and Bulldogs 4W–5L (44%). Games average 46.1 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.1 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
10.7
Sin Bins / Gm
0.50
SB Away %
52%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Titans get a +1.6 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.4.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
70%
Bulldogs predicted to win by 9 points
Predicted total: 42 · Line: -9.5
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