# Titans v Bulldogs — NRL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Titans 18 – 38 Bulldogs

_Bulldogs hound Titans._

Half time: 8 – 14 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Titans 30% / Bulldogs 70% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 04 May, 01:50 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Titans: Beau Fermor (20'), Phillip Sami (31' Tipped ⚡), Beau Fermor (60'), Alofiana Khan-Pereira (65' Tipped ⚡) · Bulldogs: Jacob Kiraz (4' 1st Tipped ⚡), Connor Tracey (12'), Jacob Kiraz (44' 1st Tipped ⚡), Jacob Preston (49' Tipped ⚡), Jacob Kiraz (55' 1st Tipped ⚡), Reed Mahoney (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Bulldogs | 70% | Won |
| Titans | 30% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 9.5 predicted → 20 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Gold Coast Titans vs Canterbury Bulldogs Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Titans 18–38 Bulldogs in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Bulldogs beat Titans 38-18 at Suncorp Stadium, a 20-point margin that puts it firmly in the blowout basket. Look at the completion numbers though and the story gets murkier. Titans finished with the better completion rate, 83% to 76%, and fewer errors, 8 to 11. They also out-kicked the Bulldogs for territory, 673 metres to 525. By the tidiness ledger, Titans were the better side. They still lost by three converted tries and change.

What actually did the damage was line breaks, and it wasn't close. Bulldogs cracked the line seven times, Titans managed one. That gap traces straight back to the positional numbers going in, where Bulldogs backs rated 999 against 750 for the Titans, a 249-point edge in the backline that isn't the kind of thing tidy completion rates paper over. It showed up on the scoreboard from the fourth minute, when Jacob Kiraz opened the account to make it 0-4. Connor Tracey stretched that to 0-10 by the 11th minute, and the Titans were chasing the game from there.

They did chase it, credit where it's due. Beau Fermor crossed in the 19th minute and Phillip Sami followed in the 30th, dragging the score to 8-12. Brian Kelly then spent 10 minutes in the bin from the 33rd, and while Titans held the line through that spell, the reprieve didn't last. Kiraz scored his second four minutes into the second half to make it 8-18, and from there the Bulldogs simply kept coming: Jacob Preston in the 48th, Kiraz completing his hat-trick in the 54th, and by that point it was 8-30 and the contest was effectively over.

Titans got two late tries, through Fermor again in the 59th and Alofiana Khan-Pereira in the 65th, but both sin bins in the closing stages, Chris Randall for the Titans in the 69th and Preston for the Bulldogs in the 75th, cancelled each other out. Reed Mahoney's try in the 78th minute put the gloss on it at 18-38.

The bigger numbers back up what the eye test suggested.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Titans | 8 | 10 | 18 |
| Bulldogs | 14 | 24 | 38 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Titans | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 45% | Possession | **55%** |
| **83%** | Completion rate | 76% |
| 1,385 | Run metres | **1,959** |
| 421 | Post-contact metres | **554** |
| 1 | Line breaks | **7** |
| 32 | Tackle breaks | **38** |
| **10** | Offloads | 7 |
| 86.8% | Effective tackle % | **86.9%** |
| 38 | Missed tackles | **32** |
| **8** | Errors | 11 |
| 5 | Penalties conceded | **4** |
| **673** | Kick metres | 525 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Bulldogs to win at 70% probability. The predicted margin of 9.5 was reasonable against the actual 20-point result. Bulldogs led 8–14 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 20. The model went 6/16 on this match. Bulldogs covered the 12.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Todd Smith officiated this match (121 career games). The combined score of 56 points was 9 points above Todd Smith's career average of 47. Bulldogs's victory aligns with Todd Smith's historical trend, Bulldogs have a 55% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 11' Try — Connor Tracey (Bulldogs) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 19' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 4-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 30' Try — Phillip Sami (Titans) — 8-12 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 33' Sin Bin — Brian Kelly (Titans) — 8-12 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 44' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 8-18 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 48' Try — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 8-24 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 54' Try — Jacob Kiraz (Bulldogs) — 8-30 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 59' Try — Beau Fermor (Titans) — 12-32 · win-prob swing +0 pts
- 65' Try — Alofiana Khan-Pereira (Titans) — 16-32 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 69' Sin Bin — Chris Randall (Titans) — 16-32 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 75' Sin Bin — Jacob Preston (Bulldogs) — 16-32 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 78' Try — Reed Mahoney (Bulldogs) — 18-36 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Bulldogs to win @ $1.24 (edge -7.7%) — model probability 70.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Bulldogs +12.5 @ $1.91 (edge -7.7%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +19.5%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Bulldogs by 10 · Predicted total: 42

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Bulldogs here: 70% to see off Titans. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Bulldogs sit 249 ELO points clear, 1581 to 1332. Form leans Bulldogs' way: 4 from their last 5, against 1 for Titans.

Bulldogs own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. The margin model has Bulldogs by 9.5, with the two sides combining for about 42. Bulldogs to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Bulldogs have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Bulldogs took the most recent meeting 30-12 in 2026 Round 17.

Titans have leaked 150 in their last four; Titans are 3-9 at home this year. Bulldogs have lost 3 straight.

On the ladder it's Titans 14th against Bulldogs 1st.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Titans 4 · Bulldogs 6 |
| Last meeting | Bulldogs 30-12 |
| Titans last 4 | LLLW · 106 for, 150 against |
| Titans at home | 3-9 this season |
| Bulldogs last 4 | WLLL · 78 for, 100 against |
| Bulldogs away | 7-6 this season |
| Ladder | Titans 14th · Bulldogs 1st |
| Finals odds | Titans 0% · Bulldogs 100% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Bulldogs

**Todd Smith** — 121 career games since 2019.

| Team | Record under Todd Smith | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 6W–7L | 46% |
| Bulldogs | 6W–5L | 55% |

Avg total: 46.6 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Bulldogs hold a 9-point edge: 6W–5L (55%) vs Titans's 6W–7L (46%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Titans get a +1.6 penalty advantage under Todd Smith vs Bulldogs's -1.3.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Titans | Stat | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 18.8pts | Avg Score | 21.2pts |
| 33.2pts | Avg Conceded | 11.2pts |
| -14.4pts | Avg Margin | 10.0pts |
| 1531.2m | Run Metres | 1682.2m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 4.6 |
| 338.2 | Tackles | 353.2 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 8.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Titans | 1W–4L | 18.8 |
| Bulldogs | 4W–1L | 21.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Bulldogs lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R17 | Titans | 12 – 30 | Bulldogs |
| 2025 | R2 | Bulldogs | 40 – 24 | Titans |
| 2024 | R3 | Bulldogs | 32 – 0 | Titans |
| 2023 | R27 | Titans | 34 – 30 | Bulldogs |
| 2023 | R12 | Bulldogs | 20 – 18 | Titans |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Titans' best path is the left edge: NRL's 10th-ranked left edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Bulldogs defence ranked 8th there (1.14 conceded/game). Key man: Sami, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Bulldogs' best path is the right edge: NRL's 2nd-ranked right edge attack (1.57 tries/game) runs at a Titans defence ranked 17th there (1.86 conceded/game). Key man: Xerri, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Titans | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.43/g (def 12th) | 0.86/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.14/g (def 8th) |
| Middle | 1.43/g (att 10th) · concedes 1.86/g (def 12th) | 1.86/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.57/g (def 1st (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.86/g (def 17th (weak)) | 1.57/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Titans | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 14th (weak) | 1st (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 7 · 5 | 1 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.3/g |
| Run Metres | 198m/g | 157m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 5.1/g | 2.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.7/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.3% | 85.3% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Titans | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 13th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 12th | 5th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 12 · 19 | 13 · 13 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 614m/g | 762m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 10/g | 13.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.7/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 78.9% | 82.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Titans | Bulldogs |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 10 | 10 · 2 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 545m/g | 481m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 8.4/g | 9/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.2% | 89.3% |

**Who scores on Bulldogs** — Centres 0.8/g (lg 0.67) +19% · 2nd Rows 0.52/g (lg 0.45) +16% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.22) +5%
**Who scores on Titans** — Props 0.38/g (lg 0.16) +138% · Fullbacks 0.73/g (lg 0.44) +66% · 2nd Rows 0.69/g (lg 0.45) +53%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Titans** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jaylan De Groot | FB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 10% | — | — |
| 2 | Alofiana Khan-Pereira | WG | 2 in 2g | 10/10g (1·2·1·0·0·3·0·1·2·0) | 3/4g | 8/6g | 58% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.90 AI 70% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 16% ✗ Not first | 🏉 65' |
| 3 | Brian Kelly | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1) | 5/11g | 9/18g | 24% | — | — |
| 4 | Phillip Sami | CE | 3 in 7g | 4/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 5/7g | 5/12g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.10 AI 42% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 31' |
| 6 | AJ Brimson | 5/8 | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·1·1·1·0) | 3/9g | 5/10g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Tom Weaver | HB | 0 in 3g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 8 | Moeaki Fotuaika | PR | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/10g | 0/16g | 0% | — | — |
| 9 | Sam Verrills | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/8g | 4% | — | — |
| 10 | Reagan Campbell-Gillard | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/19g | 4/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Chris Randall | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 3/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Beau Fermor | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/6g | 3/8g | 34% | — | 🏉 20' 60' |
| 13 | Tino Fa'asuamaleaui | LK | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/8g | 4/10g | 22% | — | — |
| 14 | Klese Haas | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 2/5g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Iszac Fa'asuamaleaui | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/1g | 3% | — | — |
| 16 | Arama Hau | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 17 | Josiah Pahulu | INT | no games | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |

**Bulldogs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Connor Tracey | FB | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/7g | 7/9g | 20% | — | 🏉 12' |
| 2 | Jacob Kiraz | WG | 0 in 3g | 4/10g (0·0·2·1·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/3g | 2/5g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.75 AI 42% ✓ Scored | 🏉 4' 44' 55' |
| 3 | Bronson Xerri | CE | 5 in 7g | 6/10g (1·0·0·0·0·1·2·0·1·1) | 0/2g | 2/5g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 75% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Stephen Crichton | CE | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 2/6g | 6/15g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.03 AI 36% ✗ No try | — |
| 5 | Marcelo Montoya | WG | 3 in 7g | 5/10g (0·1·1·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/10g | 8/14g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 44% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Bailey Hayward | 5/8 | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 3% | — | — |
| 7 | Toby Sexton | HB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Max King | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/6g | 0/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Reed Mahoney | HK | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/10g | 1/12g | 16% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 10 | Daniel Suluka-Fifita | PR | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 11 | Viliame Kikau | 2R | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 2/9g | 4/19g | 16% | — | — |
| 12 | Jacob Preston | 2R | 4 in 7g | 5/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·1) | 2/3g | 4/4g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.30 AI 60% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' |
| 13 | Jaeman Salmon | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 0/8g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Kurt Mann | INT | 2 in 7g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 7/11g | 3/12g | 20% | — | — |
| 15 | Harry Hayes | INT | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 7% | — | — |
| 16 | Kurtis Morrin | INT | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Blake Taaffe | INT | 0 in 2g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 1/11g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Titans 1332 · Bulldogs 1581 · ELO difference: 249 in favour of Bulldogs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Titans | Bulldogs | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 979 (best 1284) | 972 (best 1254) | Titans +7 |
| Backs | 750 (best 829) | 999 (best 1053) | Bulldogs +248 |
| Halves | 1121 (best 1121) | 1224 (best 1224) | Bulldogs +103 |
| Hooker | 1046 | 939 | Titans +107 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Bulldogs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Bulldogs |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Bulldogs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Titans |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Titans |

**Model Confidence: 70%** — Bulldogs predicted to win by 9 points · Predicted total: 42 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)