Win Probability
AI Game Review
Raiders defied the model's 58% prediction for Storm, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. Raiders trailed 14–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–20. The model went 1/3 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Gerard Sutton officiated this match (367 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Raiders bucked the trend, Storm historically win 73% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 56% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. 61% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Storm
58%
Raiders
42%
AI Match Overview
Storm hold the advantage at 58% win probability, though Raiders are far from out of this at 42%. The model sees Storm ahead on 5 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. Storm carry a 101-point ELO rating advantage (1658 vs 1557). Recent form favours Raiders with 4 wins from their last 5 compared to 3 for Storm. The margin model predicts Storm by 3.9 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Storm to Win @1.50
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.4%
Line / Spread
Storm -5.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-8.4%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+14.8%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Storm | W W W L L | 28.8 |
Raiders | W W W W L | 32.8 |
Avg Conceded
22.0
Storm
22.0
Raiders
Avg Margin
6.8
Storm
10.8
Raiders
Run Metres
1669
Storm
1724
Raiders
Line Breaks
6.2
Storm
5.6
Raiders
Referee Indicator
Favours StormGerard Sutton
367 career games · since 2011
Win rate when Gerard Sutton refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 48 of 66 games (73%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 19 from 41 (46%). Home teams win 56% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).
Avg Total
42.0 pts
Home Win %
56%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
11.8
Sin Bins / Gm
0.12
SB Away %
61%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
61% of his 18 career sin bins go to away teams.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
58%
Storm predicted to win by 4 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +3.9
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