# Storm v Raiders — NRL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Storm 18 – 20 Raiders

_Raiders rally to raid Storm._

Half time: 14 – 12 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Storm 58% / Raiders 42% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 04 May, 06:25 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Storm: Grant Anderson (6' 1st Tipped ⚡), Ryan Papenhuyzen (15' Tipped ⚡), Sualauvi Faalogo (59') · Raiders: Savelio Tamale (28' Tipped ⚡), Matthew Timoko (33'), Kaeo Weekes (78')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 58% | Lost |
| Raiders | 42% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.9 predicted → 2 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Melbourne Storm vs Canberra Raiders Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Storm 18–20 Raiders in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Storm went to the break in front, 14-12, and for a while it looked like their fast start would be enough to see the job done. Grant Anderson opened the scoring inside six minutes, Ryan Papenhuyzen added a second nine minutes later, and by the 15th minute it was 10-0. That's about as good a start as you'll get against a side that had won four of its last five.

Canberra didn't fold. Savelio Tamale got them on the board in the 28th minute, Matthew Timoko followed five minutes after that, and a laugher had turned into a two-point game by half-time. All that early Storm work had been trimmed back to almost nothing.

The second half went another way again. Sualauvi Faalogo scored in the 58th to push Storm out to 18-12, and for a stretch it looked like the home side might hold the line. Then Kaeo Weekes crossed in the 77th to get Canberra within two, and from there the Raiders found enough to get over, finishing 18-20. Two late sin bins, Josh Papalii and Stefano Utoikamanu both marched in the 83rd, capped off a match that had turned scrappy by the end.

The stat sheet backs up who won the arm wrestle underneath the scoreboard. Canberra had 52% of possession and completed at 85% to Storm's 80%, a gap that tends to matter when a game's this tight. They ran for 1,668 metres to 1,563, and their post-contact figure, 585 to 518, shows they were getting over the advantage line after first contact more often. Seventeen offloads to seven says much the same thing from another angle: Canberra kept the footy alive, Storm mostly couldn't.

Discipline told as well. Canberra gave away just 6 penalties to Storm's 9, and their effective tackle rate, 90.2% against 85.4%, meant fewer easy releases for the home attack. Storm's one clear advantage was territory, 791 kicking metres to Canberra's 583, but territory without completion rarely wins these things.

Individually, Storm's night belonged to Anderson and Papenhuyzen in that opening quarter, and to Faalogo for keeping them in touch after the break. For the Raiders, Tamale and Timoko did the recovery work either side of half-time, and Weekes supplied the finish that mattered most.

Going in, Alphr's model had Storm as 58% favourites and tipped a 3.9-point win, with a combined total of 43.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Storm | 14 | 4 | 18 |
| Raiders | 12 | 8 | 20 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Storm | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 48% | Possession | **52%** |
| 80% | Completion rate | **85%** |
| 1,563 | Run metres | **1,668** |
| 518 | Post-contact metres | **585** |
| 4 | Line breaks | **5** |
| 31 | Tackle breaks | **36** |
| 7 | Offloads | **17** |
| 85.4% | Effective tackle % | **90.2%** |
| 36 | Missed tackles | **31** |
| 9 | Errors | **8** |
| 9 | Penalties conceded | **6** |
| **791** | Kick metres | 583 |

**Model Report Card**

Raiders defied the model's 58% prediction for Storm, a notable result. The predicted margin of 3.9 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 38, within 5 points. Raiders trailed 14–12 at half-time before staging a second-half comeback to win 18–20. The model went 4/16 on this match. The under 48.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Gerard Sutton officiated this match (398 career games). The 38-point combined total was right in line with Gerard Sutton's career average of 42. Raiders bucked the trend, Storm historically win 69% of games under Gerard Sutton, but couldn't convert that edge today. Despite Gerard Sutton's 57% career home-team win rate, the away side Raiders prevailed. 62% of his career sin bins go against away teams, a statistically significant away-team bias.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 6' Try — Grant Anderson (Storm) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 15' Try — Ryan Papenhuyzen (Storm) — 10-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 28' Try — Savelio Tamale (Raiders) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 33' Try — Matthew Timoko (Raiders) — 14-10 · win-prob swing -6 pts
- 58' Try — Sualauvi Faalogo (Storm) — 18-12 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 77' Try — Kaeo Weekes (Raiders) — 18-16 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 83' Sin Bin — Josh Papalii (Raiders) — 18-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 83' Sin Bin — Stefano Utoikamanu (Storm) — 18-16 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Storm to win @ $1.50 (edge -8.4%) — model probability 58.3% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Storm -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -8.4%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +14.8%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Storm by 4 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Storm are the call at 58%, but Raiders stay live at 42%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Storm sit 101 ELO points clear, 1658 to 1557. Form leans Raiders' way: 4 from their last 5, against 3 for Storm.

Storm own the matchup too, leading 5 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Storm by 3.9, with the two sides combining for about 43. Lean Storm, but it shapes as a genuine contest.

Storm have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Storm took the most recent meeting 42-20 in 2026 Round 16.

Raiders have lost 3 straight; Raiders have leaked 133 in their last four. Both sides have made a habit of half-time comebacks this season: Storm 3, Raiders 6.

On the ladder it's Storm 2nd against Raiders 3rd.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Storm 6 · Raiders 4 |
| Last meeting | Storm 42-20 |
| Storm last 4 | LWWL · 84 for, 88 against |
| Storm at home | 11-4 this season |
| Raiders last 4 | WLLL · 88 for, 133 against |
| Raiders away | 8-4 this season |
| Ladder | Storm 2nd · Raiders 3rd |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Storm

**Gerard Sutton** — 398 career games since 2011.

| Team | Record under Gerard Sutton | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 42W–19L | 69% |
| Raiders | 21W–22L | 49% |

Avg total: 41.6 pts · Home win %: 57% · Home bias: Leans home

When Gerard Sutton officiates, Storm have won 42 of 61 games (69%), significantly stronger than Raiders's 21 from 43 (49%). Home teams win 57% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Penalises away teams more, 5.3 against home vs 6 against away. 62% of his 168 career sin bins go to away teams.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Storm | Stat | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| 3.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 4.0 |
| 28.8pts | Avg Score | 32.8pts |
| 22.0pts | Avg Conceded | 22.0pts |
| 6.8pts | Avg Margin | 10.8pts |
| 1668.6m | Run Metres | 1724.4m |
| 6.2 | Line Breaks | 5.6 |
| 314.8 | Tackles | 332.6 |
| 13.6 | Errors | 9.4 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Storm | 3W–2L | 28.8 |
| Raiders | 4W–1L | 32.8 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Storm lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R16 | Storm | 42 – 20 | Raiders |
| 2026 | R7 | Raiders | 26 – 22 | Storm |
| 2024 | R17 | Storm | 16 – 6 | Raiders |
| 2023 | R24 | Storm | 48 – 2 | Raiders |
| 2022 | R26 | Storm | 20 – 28 | Raiders |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Storm's best path is the left edge: NRL's 4th-ranked left edge attack (1.71 tries/game) runs at a Raiders defence ranked 17th there (1.88 conceded/game). Key man: Coates, 7 tries in that channel this season.
- Raiders' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Storm defence ranked 12th there (1.29 conceded/game). Key man: Young, 7 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Storm | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.71/g (att 4th (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 12th) | 2.25/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.88/g (def 17th (weak)) |
| Middle | 2.57/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.29/g (def 5th (strong)) | 1.5/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.25/g (def 4th (strong)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.14/g (def 11th) | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 0.75/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Storm | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 7th |
| Defence rank | 2nd (strong) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 2 | 5 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 2.4/g | 1.6/g |
| Run Metres | 217m/g | 148m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 4.3/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 88.9% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Storm | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 1st (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 24 · 19 | 19 · 19 |
| Try Assists | 1.7/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 681m/g | 671m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 15.9/g | 19.5/g |
| Line Breaks | 4.4/g | 2.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77.2% | 77.1% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Storm | Raiders |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 4th (strong) | 1st (strong) |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 8th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 0 | 15 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.6/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 535m/g | 599m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9/g | 12.6/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 92.3% |

**Who scores on Raiders** — Props 0.26/g (lg 0.16) +63% · Centres 0.95/g (lg 0.67) +42% · Five-Eighths 0.35/g (lg 0.27) +30%
**Who scores on Storm** — Wingers 1.3/g (lg 1.26) +3% · Centres 0.69/g (lg 0.67) +3% · 2nd Rows 0.33/g (lg 0.45) -27%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Storm** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ryan Papenhuyzen | FB | 7 in 7g | 9/10g (0·2·0·2·1·1·1·0·1·1) | 3/8g | 10/15g | 62% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 63% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | 🏉 15' |
| 2 | Sualauvi Faalogo | WG | 0 in 2g | 5/10g (2·1·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/5g | 31% | — | 🏉 59' |
| 3 | Grant Anderson | CE | 5 in 7g | 5/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·3·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/7g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 6' |
| 4 | Nick Meaney | CE | 1 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 3/14g | 16% | — | — |
| 5 | Xavier Coates | WG | 7 in 7g | 7/10g (0·0·0·2·1·0·0·2·1·1) | 3/4g | 12/26g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.86 AI 61% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Cameron Munster | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 4/10g (1·2·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/16g | 6/23g | 24% | — | — |
| 7 | Jahrome Hughes | HB | 1 in 6g | 7/10g (3·0·3·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/13g | 12/19g | 32% | — | — |
| 8 | Stefano Utoikamanu | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 1/4g | 1/9g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Bronson Garlick | HK | 1 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Josh King | PR | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/10g | 1/14g | 14% | — | — |
| 11 | Shawn Blore | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Eliesa Katoa | 2R | 3 in 7g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/7g | 3/11g | 40% | — | — |
| 13 | Trent Loiero | LK | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 14 | Tyran Wishart | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/7g | 30% | — | — |
| 15 | Alec MacDonald | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/5g | 4% | — | — |
| 16 | Tui Kamikamica | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 3/14g | 2% | — | — |
| 17 | Joe Chan | INT | 0 in 3g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |

**Raiders** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kaeo Weekes | FB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/3g | 0/3g | 22% | — | 🏉 78' |
| 2 | Savelio Tamale | WG | 4 in 8g | 4/9g (0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 44% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 43% ✓ Scored | 🏉 28' |
| 3 | Matthew Timoko | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/9g | 22% | — | 🏉 33' |
| 4 | Sebastian Kris | CE | 7 in 8g | 7/10g (0·0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·1) | 1/4g | 3/9g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 53% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Xavier Savage | WG | 4 in 7g | 8/10g (2·1·1·2·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 0/4g | 3/5g | 54% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.15 AI 45% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Ethan Strange | 5/8 | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 20% | — | — |
| 7 | Jamal Fogarty | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/6g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 8 | Corey Horsburgh | PR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Tom Starling | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/7g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Joseph Tapine | PR | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0) | 1/18g | 0/13g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Hudson Young | 2R | 7 in 8g | 8/10g (0·1·0·0·1·0·2·2·2·0) | 1/8g | 5/11g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 63% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 9% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Matty Nicholson | 2R | 5 in 7g | 5/7g (2·0·0·1·1·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 57% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.10 AI 50% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 13 | Morgan Smithies | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 0% | — | — |
| 14 | Owen Pattie | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Zac Hosking | INT | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 1/2g | 0/4g | 15% | — | — |
| 16 | Josh Papalii | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/23g | 4/16g | 12% | — | — |
| 17 | Ata Mariota | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/3g | 4% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Storm 1658 · Raiders 1557 · ELO difference: 101 in favour of Storm

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Storm | Raiders | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1178 (best 1323) | 1162 (best 1378) | Storm +15 |
| Backs | 1106 (best 1180) | 1032 (best 1164) | Storm +74 |
| Halves | 1168 (best 1168) | 1269 (best 1269) | Raiders +100 |
| Hooker | 922 | 1200 | Raiders +278 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Storm |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Storm |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Storm |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Raiders |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Storm |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Storm |

**Model Confidence: 58%** — Storm predicted to win by 4 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)