AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (176 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sharks's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend — Sharks have a 71% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 4.7 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 46 — within 3 points. A clean sweep — all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
Win Probability
AI Win Probability
Sharks
67%
Eels
33%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Sharks ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. Sharks carry a 181-point ELO rating advantage (1536 vs 1355). The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Line / Spread
Sharks -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | WWLLL | 20.4 |
Eels | WWLLL | 18.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Sharks
27.2
Eels
Avg Margin
1.2
Sharks
-8.6
Eels
Run Metres
1741
Sharks
1593
Eels
Line Breaks
3.6
Sharks
4.0
Eels
Each team's win rate when Peter Gough refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)
When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 12 of 17 games (71%) vs any opponent — significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 26 (38%). That's a 33‑point gap across all seasons. His games average 44.2 pts, sitting close to the league average.
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Neutral
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +4.7
Try Scorer Predictions
AI-powered try scorer predictions and player prop markets — built on our 6-model player stats engine.