Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 4.7 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. A clean sweep, all 3 model picks hit for this match.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Peter Gough officiated this match (183 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sharks's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Sharks have a 72% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 13.1 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Sharks
67%
Eels
33%
AI Match Overview
Sharks are clear favourites here at 67%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Eels. The model sees Sharks ahead on 3 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Venue Advantage. Sharks carry a 181-point ELO rating advantage (1536 vs 1355). The margin model predicts Sharks by 4.7 points with a combined total of 43.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.48
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Line / Spread
Sharks -5.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
-1.4%
Total Points
Under 46.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.4%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Sharks | W W L L L | 20.4 |
Eels | W W L L L | 18.6 |
Avg Conceded
19.2
Sharks
27.2
Eels
Avg Margin
1.2
Sharks
-8.6
Eels
Run Metres
1741
Sharks
1593
Eels
Line Breaks
3.6
Sharks
4.0
Eels
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksPeter Gough
183 career games · since 2016
Win rate when Peter Gough refs each team (vs any opponent)
When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 13 of 18 games (72%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 30 (33%).
Avg Total
44.2 pts
Home Win %
53%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
13.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.43
SB Away %
60%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Peter Gough averages 13.1 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.1 against home vs 7 against away. Eels get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sharks's -0.7.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
67%
Sharks predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 43 · Line: +4.7
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