# Sharks v Eels — NRL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Sharks 28 – 18 Eels

_Sharks devour Eels._

Half time: 12 – 6 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Sharks 67% / Eels 33% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 02 May, 06:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Sharks: KL Iro (10' 1st), Briton Nikora (38' Tipped ⚡), Samuel Stonestreet (49' Tipped ⚡), Cameron McInnes (57'), Samuel Stonestreet (71' Tipped ⚡) · Eels: Josh Addo-Carr (34' Tipped ⚡), Josh Addo-Carr (60' Tipped ⚡), Dylan Brown (62')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 67% | Won |
| Eels | 33% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 4.7 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 3/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Cronulla Sharks vs Parramatta Eels Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Sharks 28–18 Eels in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

The Eels did plenty right and still lost by ten. Parramatta broke the line six times to the Sharks' four, offloaded 13 times to the Sharks' seven, and their defence was actually the more accurate of the two sides, an effective tackle rate of 89.5% against 84.7%. On another day that's the sort of sheet that wins you a game. It didn't here.

What undid them was the ball itself. Ten errors to the Sharks' eight doesn't sound like much, but combined with only 45% possession and a completion rate of 78% against 85%, the Eels simply spent more of the match without the football. Territory told the same story. Cronulla out-kicked them by nearly 200 metres, 710 to 514, which meant Parramatta kept starting sets deeper than they'd have liked.

Josh Addo-Carr was the closest thing the Eels had to a wrecking ball, crossing twice, either side of the hour mark, at the 33rd and 60th minutes. Dylan Brown got in on it too at the 62nd, and for about ten minutes after that the margin was six points and the game was very much alive. But that was as close as it got.

Cronulla had answered every push before it mattered. KL Iro opened the scoring in the 9th minute, and by half-time the Sharks led 12-6 off a Briton Nikora try in the 37th. Samuel Stonestreet then took over, scoring in the 49th and again in the 71st, either side of Cameron McInnes crossing in the 56th, and it was that stretch, three tries in 22 minutes either side of a Jesse Colquhoun sin bin at the 52nd, that turned a manageable margin into a comfortable one.

The forward pack ratings going in were dead level, 1040 to 1041, and the game reflected that: Cronulla's edge came from elsewhere. Their backline rating of 1065 against the Eels' 1000 showed up in the post-contact numbers, 634 metres to 536, second effort that Parramatta's forwards couldn't match despite winning the tackle-break count 32 to 30. Oddly enough it was the Eels' halves pairing, rated well ahead of Cronulla's at 1176 to 985, and their hooker stocks that were supposed to be the difference. Instead it was Cronulla's completion rate and discipline, seven penalties conceded to eight, that let them play with the ball far more than their opponents.

Form lines pointed to a tight one. The Eels had been leaking nearly 27 points a game across their last five, Cronulla closer to 19, and that gap showed up again here. Alphr's model had the Sharks at 67% and predicted a 4.7-point win in a game totalling 43. The final gap was ten, the total 46. Not a bad read, just a touch conservative on how well the home side would finish it off.

For the Eels, the shape was there. Line breaks, offloads, better tackling. It just wasn't enough ball, and not enough of it in the right parts of the field.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 12 | 16 | 28 |
| Eels | 6 | 12 | 18 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Sharks | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| **55%** | Possession | 45% |
| **85%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,826** | Run metres | 1,652 |
| **634** | Post-contact metres | 536 |
| 4 | Line breaks | **6** |
| 30 | Tackle breaks | **32** |
| 7 | Offloads | **13** |
| 84.7% | Effective tackle % | **89.5%** |
| 32 | Missed tackles | **30** |
| **8** | Errors | 10 |
| **7** | Penalties conceded | 8 |
| **710** | Kick metres | 514 |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Sharks to win at 67% probability. The predicted margin of 4.7 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. Total score prediction of 43 was close to the actual 46, within 3 points. The model went 6/16 on this match. Sharks covered the 5.5-point line. The under 46.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Peter Gough officiated this match (189 career games). The 46-point combined total was right in line with Peter Gough's career average of 44. Sharks's victory aligns with Peter Gough's historical trend, Sharks have a 74% win rate under this referee. Peter Gough averaged 12.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 9' Try — KL Iro (Sharks) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 33' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 6-4 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 37' Try — Briton Nikora (Sharks) — 10-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 49' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 16-6 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 52' Sin Bin — Jesse Colquhoun (Sharks) — 16-6 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 56' Try — Cameron McInnes (Sharks) — 20-6 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 60' Try — Josh Addo-Carr (Eels) — 22-10 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 62' Try — Dylan Brown (Eels) — 22-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 71' Try — Samuel Stonestreet (Sharks) — 26-18 · win-prob swing +4 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Sharks to win @ $1.48 (edge -1.4%) — model probability 66.6% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Sharks -5.5 @ $1.91 (edge -1.4%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 46.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.4%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Sharks by 5 · Predicted total: 43

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Sharks here: 67% to see off Eels. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Sharks sit 181 ELO points clear, 1536 to 1355.

Sharks own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Recent Win Rate. The margin model has Sharks by 4.7, with the two sides combining for about 43. A big number on the win and a tighter one on the scoreboard. Back Sharks to win, not to win big.

The recent history is dead even: 5 wins apiece from the last 10.

Sharks are 11-2 at home this year. Eels have won 3 straight; Eels have put up 138 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Sharks 7th against Eels 16th.

Eels come in fresher, 11 days between games against 5.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Sharks 5 · Eels 5 |
| Last meeting | Eels 38-18 |
| Sharks last 4 | WWWL · 90 for, 50 against |
| Sharks at home | 11-2 this season |
| Eels last 4 | LWWW · 138 for, 62 against |
| Eels away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Sharks 7th · Eels 16th |
| Finals odds | Sharks 100% · Eels 0% |
| Rest gap | Sharks 5d · Eels 11d |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Sharks

**Peter Gough** — 189 career games since 2016.

| Team | Record under Peter Gough | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 14W–5L | 74% |
| Eels | 10W–20L | 33% |

Avg total: 44.0 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

When Peter Gough officiates, Sharks have won 14 of 19 games (74%), significantly stronger than Eels's 10 from 30 (33%).

Peter Gough averages 12.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 5.8 against home vs 6.5 against away. Eels get a +-0.1 penalty advantage under Peter Gough vs Sharks's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Sharks | Stat | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 2.0 |
| 20.4pts | Avg Score | 18.6pts |
| 19.2pts | Avg Conceded | 27.2pts |
| 1.2pts | Avg Margin | -8.6pts |
| 1741.0m | Run Metres | 1592.8m |
| 3.6 | Line Breaks | 4.0 |
| 353.6 | Tackles | 341.4 |
| 12.0 | Errors | 11.2 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Sharks | 2W–3L | 20.4 |
| Eels | 2W–3L | 18.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Eels lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R26 | Eels | 38 – 18 | Sharks |
| 2024 | R13 | Eels | 34 – 22 | Sharks |
| 2023 | R2 | Eels | 26 – 30 | Sharks |
| 2022 | R2 | Sharks | 18 – 16 | Eels |
| 2021 | R3 | Eels | 28 – 4 | Sharks |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Sharks' best path is the left edge: NRL's 3rd-ranked left edge attack (1.88 tries/game) runs at a Eels defence ranked 16th there (1.71 conceded/game). Key man: Nikora, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Eels' best path is the right edge: NRL's 9th-ranked right edge attack (1 tries/game) runs at a Sharks defence ranked 7th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Addo-Carr, 3 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Sharks | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.88/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) | 0.71/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.71/g (def 16th (weak)) |
| Middle | 1.38/g (att 11th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 1/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 2/g (def 15th (weak)) |
| Right | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.71/g (def 16th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Sharks | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 8th | 9th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 2 · 4 | 1 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 2.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 165m/g | 171m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.4/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.3/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.8% | 83.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Sharks | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 5th (strong) | 12th |
| Defence rank | 1st (strong) | 17th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 21 · 13 | 14 · 24 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 0.6/g |
| Run Metres | 775m/g | 735m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 17.8/g | 15.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 2.3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 80.2% | 77.2% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Sharks | Eels |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 3rd (strong) | 9th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 15th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 10 · 6 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.1/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 554m/g | 410m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.5/g | 5.1/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 0.7/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 91% | 90.1% |

**Who scores on Eels** — Hookers 0.22/g (lg 0.14) +57% · Fullbacks 0.65/g (lg 0.44) +48% · Centres 0.98/g (lg 0.67) +46%
**Who scores on Sharks** — Hookers 0.18/g (lg 0.14) +29% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18% · Halfbacks 0.23/g (lg 0.21) +10%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Sharks** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | William Kennedy | FB | 4 in 8g | 4/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·1·1) | 4/5g | 5/10g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 55% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Samuel Stonestreet | WG | 6 in 8g | 10/10g (2·2·0·2·0·0·0·2·2·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 52% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.94 AI 78% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $8.50 AI 11% ✗ Not first | 🏉 49' 71' |
| 3 | Jesse Ramien | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/7g | 1/8g | 22% | — | — |
| 4 | KL Iro | CE | 5 in 4g | 7/10g (1·1·0·0·0·0·1·2·1·1) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 36% | — | 🏉 10' |
| 5 | Ronaldo Mulitalo | WG | 2 in 8g | 3/10g (1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 4/5g | 3/9g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 40% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Braydon Trindall | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 4/9g | 30% | — | — |
| 7 | Nicho Hynes | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 8 | Addin Fonua-Blake | PR | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/11g | 1/11g | 30% | — | — |
| 9 | Blayke Brailey | HK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/12g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Oregon Kaufusi | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Briton Nikora | 2R | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·1·1·0·2·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 1/11g | 34% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 55% ✓ Scored | 🏉 38' |
| 12 | Billy Burns | 2R | 1 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 1/5g | 12% | — | — |
| 13 | Cameron McInnes | LK | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/13g | 2/13g | 8% | — | 🏉 57' |
| 14 | Daniel Atkinson | Replacement | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/1g | 0/2g | 11% | — | — |
| 15 | Siosifa Talakai | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 3/9g | 14% | — | — |
| 16 | Braden Uele | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 1/6g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Thomas Hazelton | PR | 1 in 5g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/3g | 24% | — | — |

**Eels** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Isaiah Iongi | FB | 4 in 7g | 4/9g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·2) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.05 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Bailey Simonsson | WG | 1 in 2g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 2/6g | 2/6g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.25 AI 38% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Will Penisini | CE | 2 in 7g | 6/10g (1·1·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/3g | 2/6g | 36% | — | — |
| 4 | Sean Russell | CE | 1 in 6g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 28% | — | — |
| 5 | Josh Addo-Carr | WG | 5 in 5g | 10/10g (2·0·1·1·1·1·0·1·1·2) | 2/11g | 20/20g | 56% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.08 AI 64% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 13% ✗ Not first | 🏉 34' 60' |
| 6 | Dylan Brown | 5/8 | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/5g | 0/10g | 22% | — | 🏉 62' |
| 7 | Mitchell Moses | HB | 0 in 1g | 4/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0·0) | 6/13g | 3/14g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.60 AI 42% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 8 | Jack Williams | PR | 0 in 4g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/12g | 8% | — | — |
| 9 | Ryley Smith | HK | 0 in 7g | 0/7g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 10 | Junior Paulo | PR | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/15g | 1/16g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Charlie Guymer | 2R | 0 in 4g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 12 | Kitione Kautoga | 2R | 1 in 6g | 1/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |
| 13 | J'maine Hopgood | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/6g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Dylan Walker | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/17g | 2/17g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Luca Moretti | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Sam Tuivaiti | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/6g (0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 17% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Sharks 1536 · Eels 1355 · ELO difference: 181 in favour of Sharks

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Sharks | Eels | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1040 (best 1325) | 1041 (best 1222) | Even |
| Backs | 1065 (best 1194) | 1000 (best 1135) | Sharks +65 |
| Halves | 985 (best 985) | 1176 (best 1176) | Eels +191 |
| Hooker | 968 | 857 | Sharks +111 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Sharks |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | — |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Sharks |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Eels |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Sharks |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Sharks |

**Model Confidence: 67%** — Sharks predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 43 pts

**Record:** 3/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)