# Roosters v Dolphins — NRL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Roosters 36 – 26 Dolphins

_Roosters crow over Dolphins._

Half time: 14 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Roosters 53% / Dolphins 47% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Fri, 02 May, 08:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Roosters: Robert Toia (11' 1st), Victor Radley (17'), Mark Nawaqanitawase (22' Tipped ⚡), Mark Nawaqanitawase (43' Tipped ⚡), Victor Radley (48'), Connor Watson (50'), Robert Toia (72' 1st) · Dolphins: Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (37' Tipped ⚡), Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (66' Tipped ⚡), Herbie Farnworth (69' Tipped ⚡), Kodi Nikorima (75')

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 53% | Won |
| Dolphins | 47% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 5.2 predicted → 10 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Sydney Roosters vs Redcliffe Dolphins Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Roosters 36–26 Dolphins in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Fourteen to eight at the break, and on paper that looked like a scoreline Dolphins could chase down. They'd won three of their last five, averaged 29.6 points a game coming in, and had the better average margin of any side in this contest by some distance. Roosters, by contrast, had lost more than they'd won lately. None of that mattered once the second half started.

Roosters put it beyond doubt in a hurry. Nawaqanitawase's second try made it 18-8 in the 43rd minute, Radley's second stretched it to 24-8 by the 47th, and Connor Watson's try two minutes later had the margin out to 22 points at 30-8. That's 16 points in six minutes of game time, the kind of stretch that turns a contest into a procession.

Dolphins didn't fold, to be fair. Tabuai-Fidow's second try, then Farnworth, then Nikorima, dragged four points back and made the last quarter look tighter on the sheet than it felt on the field. Robert Toia's second try at the 72nd minute, bookending the one he opened the scoring with in the 10th, put the game out of reach regardless. Final score 36-26.

The stat sheet tells you exactly how Roosters did it. They ran for 1,825 metres to 1,439, made 669 post-contact metres, and broke 48 tackles to Dolphins' 25. Eighteen offloads to eight meant the ball stayed alive through contact, and eight line breaks to four gave them the space to finish what the collisions started. That's not a possession story so much as a physicality one, and at 54% of the ball Roosters didn't even need to dominate territory to dominate the game.

Dolphins were actually the tidier side, completing at 77% to Roosters' 79% is close enough to call even, but they only coughed the ball up 10 times to Roosters' 12. The problem wasn't what they did with it. It was what happened when Roosters had it. Missing 48 tackles to Roosters' 25 is the number that decided this, and no amount of clean footwork with the ball fixes a leak that size in defence.

The pre-match ratings had this as a form-versus-talent puzzle. Dolphins carried the stronger forward pack rating, 1095 to 1037, and a big edge at hooker, 1187 to 977. Roosters' halves rating of 1375 against 1015 was the widest gap on the sheet, and it showed up exactly where you'd expect, in the line breaks and the support play that turned pressure into points.

Alphr's model had Roosters favourites at 53%, tipping them by 5.2 points. The actual margin came in at 10, roughly double the projection, and the total of 62 points ran 17 higher than the predicted 45. Roosters covered the 1.5-point line comfortably. A reasonable read on the winner, undercooked on how one-sided the football itself would get.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 14 | 22 | 36 |
| Dolphins | 8 | 18 | 26 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Roosters | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| **54%** | Possession | 46% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 77% |
| **1,825** | Run metres | 1,439 |
| **669** | Post-contact metres | 478 |
| **8** | Line breaks | 4 |
| **48** | Tackle breaks | 25 |
| **18** | Offloads | 8 |
| **88.2%** | Effective tackle % | 84.3% |
| **25** | Missed tackles | 48 |
| 12 | Errors | **10** |
| 4 | Penalties conceded | **3** |
| 534 | Kick metres | **590** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 5.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 62 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 5/16 on this match. Roosters covered the 1.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Grant Atkins officiated this match (336 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 19 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 12.7 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 10' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 4-0 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 16' Try — Victor Radley (Roosters) — 8-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 21' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 14-0 · win-prob swing +4 pts
- 36' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 14-4 · win-prob swing -2 pts
- 43' Try — Mark Nawaqanitawase (Roosters) — 18-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 47' Try — Victor Radley (Roosters) — 24-8 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 49' Try — Connor Watson (Roosters) — 30-8 · win-prob swing +1 pts
- 66' Try — Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow (Dolphins) — 32-12 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 68' Try — Herbie Farnworth (Dolphins) — 32-18 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 72' Try — Robert Toia (Roosters) — 36-20 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 75' Try — Kodi Nikorima (Dolphins) — 36-24 · win-prob swing -1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Roosters to win @ $1.85 (edge +2.6%) — model probability 53.4% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Roosters -1.5 @ $1.91 (edge +2.6%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 48.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Roosters by 5 · Predicted total: 45

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Roosters and Dolphins. The model can't split them, landing on Roosters at 53%. Form leans Dolphins' way: 3 from their last 5, against 2 for Roosters.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Roosters by 5.2, with the two sides combining for about 45. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Roosters have won 5 of the last 8 between these two, and Roosters took the most recent meeting 36-20 in 2026 Round 30.

Dolphins have put up 156 points in four games.

On the ladder it's Roosters 13th against Dolphins 12th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 8) | Roosters 5 · Dolphins 3 |
| Last meeting | Roosters 36-20 |
| Roosters last 4 | LWWL · 96 for, 66 against |
| Roosters at home | 6-6 this season |
| Dolphins last 4 | LLWW · 156 for, 150 against |
| Dolphins away | 5-7 this season |
| Ladder | Roosters 13th · Dolphins 12th |
| Finals odds | Roosters 100% · Dolphins 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Roosters

**Grant Atkins** — 336 career games since 2013.

| Team | Record under Grant Atkins | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 37W–22L | 63% |
| Dolphins | 8W–6L | 57% |

Avg total: 43.2 pts · Home win %: 54% · Home bias: Leans home

Roosters hold a 6-point edge: 37W–22L (63%) vs Dolphins's 8W–6L (57%).

Grant Atkins averages 12.7 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6 against home vs 6.8 against away. Roosters get a +-0.3 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Dolphins's -0.8.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Roosters | Stat | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 22.0pts | Avg Score | 29.6pts |
| 24.8pts | Avg Conceded | 20.8pts |
| -2.8pts | Avg Margin | 8.8pts |
| 1659.4m | Run Metres | 1728.2m |
| 5.8 | Line Breaks | 4.4 |
| 343.0 | Tackles | 356.6 |
| 14.2 | Errors | 9.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Roosters | 2W–3L | 22.0 |
| Dolphins | 3W–2L | 29.6 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Roosters lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | PF | Dolphins | 20 – 36 | Roosters |
| 2026 | R26 | Roosters | 12 – 26 | Dolphins |
| 2026 | R15 | Dolphins | 48 – 10 | Roosters |
| 2025 | R23 | Dolphins | 12 – 64 | Roosters |
| 2024 | R22 | Dolphins | 34 – 40 | Roosters |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Roosters' best path is the middle: NRL's 6th-ranked middle attack (1.63 tries/game) runs at a Dolphins defence ranked 5th there (1.25 conceded/game). Key man: Smith, 5 tries in that channel this season.
- Dolphins' best path is the middle: NRL's 2nd-ranked middle attack (2.13 tries/game) runs at a Roosters defence ranked 16th there (2.13 conceded/game). Key man: Tabuai-Fidow, 5 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 6th (strong)) | 0.5/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 10th) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 6th (strong)) · concedes 2.13/g (def 16th (weak)) | 2.13/g (att 2nd (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 5th (strong)) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 12th) | 1.25/g (att 5th (strong)) · concedes 1.25/g (def 11th) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 2nd (strong) | 11th |
| Defence rank | 17th (weak) | 10th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 8 · 8 | 3 · 5 |
| Try Assists | 0.9/g | 1.5/g |
| Run Metres | 192m/g | 193m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.5/g | 3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.5/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.6% | 87.2% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 12th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 17 · 24 | 17 · 21 |
| Try Assists | 1.3/g | 1.1/g |
| Run Metres | 684m/g | 758m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 18.8/g | 18.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.9/g | 1.9/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 82.1% | 84.4% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Roosters | Dolphins |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 5 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 524m/g | 491m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.3/g | 5.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.9/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 89.8% | 91.6% |

**Who scores on Dolphins** — Halfbacks 0.3/g (lg 0.21) +43% · Hookers 0.2/g (lg 0.14) +43% · Centres 0.91/g (lg 0.67) +36%
**Who scores on Roosters** — Five-Eighths 0.38/g (lg 0.26) +46% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Locks 0.13/g (lg 0.11) +18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Roosters** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | James Tedesco | FB | 2 in 8g | 4/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 0/3g | 5/18g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Daniel Tupou | WG | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (1·1·0·2·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 2/3g | 6/17g | 52% | — | — |
| 3 | Billy Smith | CE | 3 in 4g | 6/10g (1·1·0·0·1·0·0·1·2·0) | 1/1g | 2/2g | 35% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.80 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $12.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Robert Toia | CE | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 13% | — | 🏉 11' 72' |
| 5 | Mark Nawaqanitawase | WG | 3 in 7g | 4/8g (1·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.88 AI 39% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | 🏉 22' 43' |
| 6 | Sandon Smith | 5/8 | 5 in 8g | 6/10g (1·0·1·1·0·0·1·0·0·2) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.80 AI 45% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $19.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Hugo Savala | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/8g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 13% | — | — |
| 8 | Spencer Leniu | PR | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 1/13g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Connor Watson | HK | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 2/12g | 12% | — | 🏉 50' |
| 10 | Naufahu Whyte | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/5g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Angus Crichton | 2R | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/1g | 9/14g | 18% | — | — |
| 12 | Siua Wong | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Victor Radley | LK | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 2/13g | 18% | — | 🏉 17' 48' |
| 14 | Zach Dockar-Clay | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/2g | 2% | — | — |
| 15 | Salesi Foketi | INT | 0 in 6g | 0/6g (0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Blake Steep | INT | 1 in 8g | 2/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 19% | — | — |
| 17 | Egan Butcher | INT | 0 in 1g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/7g | 12% | — | — |

**Dolphins** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hamiso Tabuai-Fidow | FB | 5 in 8g | 8/10g (2·1·0·0·0·0·1·3·0·1) | 4/7g | 12/21g | 50% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.02 AI 74% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $9.50 AI 12% ✗ Not first | 🏉 37' 66' |
| 2 | Jamayne Isaako | WG | 4 in 8g | 5/10g (1·0·2·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 7/10g | 28/66g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.92 AI 48% ✗ No try | — |
| 3 | Jake Averillo | CE | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·1) | 0/5g | 8/17g | 42% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.15 AI 56% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 4 | Herbie Farnworth | CE | 3 in 8g | 5/10g (2·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/5g | 20/56g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.60 AI 48% ✓ Scored | 🏉 69' |
| 5 | Jack Bostock | WG | 2 in 6g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 6/15g | 40% | — | — |
| 6 | Kodi Nikorima | 5/8 | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0) | 1/15g | 19/74g | 18% | — | 🏉 75' |
| 7 | Isaiya Katoa | HB | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Jeremy Marshall-King | HK | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/23g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Francis Molo | PR | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/9g | 0/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Kulikefu Finefeuiaki | 2R | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/8g | 10% | — | — |
| 12 | Tom Gilbert | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/6g | 0/14g | 8% | — | — |
| 13 | Mark Nicholls | PR | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 3/17g | 6/32g | 10% | — | — |
| 15 | Ray Stone | INT | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0) | 1/5g | 2/20g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Connelly Lemuelu | 2R | 3 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1·1·0) | 1/6g | 5/19g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.20 AI 47% ✗ No try | — |
| 17 | Josh Kerr | INT | 1 in 6g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 0/8g | 3/19g | 8% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**ELO–Market Disagreement:** Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1481 vs 1473), but the market favours Roosters (@1.85). The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.

**Team ELO Ratings** — Roosters 1473 · Dolphins 1481 · ELO difference: 8 in favour of Dolphins

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Roosters | Dolphins | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1037 (best 1253) | 1095 (best 1261) | Dolphins +58 |
| Backs | 1040 (best 1138) | 1048 (best 1158) | Dolphins +7 |
| Halves | 1375 (best 1375) | 1015 (best 1015) | Roosters +359 |
| Hooker | 977 | 1187 | Dolphins +210 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | — |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Dolphins |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | — |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Roosters |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Dolphins |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Roosters |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Roosters predicted to win by 5 points · Predicted total: 45 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)