Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Roosters to win at 53% probability. The predicted margin of 5.2 was reasonable against the actual 10-point result. The game's 62 points came in 17 points higher than the predicted 45. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 62 points was 19 points above Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Roosters's victory aligns with Grant Atkins's historical trend, Roosters have a 63% win rate under this referee. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Roosters
53%
Dolphins
47%
AI Match Overview
This shapes up as one of the tightest matchups of the round. Our model gives Roosters a marginal 53% edge, making this essentially a coin-flip contest. Dolphins are stronger on paper across 4 of 7 key factors, including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality, but Roosters counter with Halves Control and Venue Advantage which tips the scales. Recent form favours Dolphins with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Roosters. The margin model predicts Roosters by 5.2 points with a combined total of 45.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Roosters to Win @1.85
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Line / Spread
Roosters -1.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+2.6%
Total Points
Under 48.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+10.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Roosters | W W L L L | 22.0 |
Dolphins | W W W L L | 29.6 |
Avg Conceded
24.8
Roosters
20.8
Dolphins
Avg Margin
-2.8
Roosters
8.8
Dolphins
Run Metres
1659
Roosters
1728
Dolphins
Line Breaks
5.8
Roosters
4.4
Dolphins
Referee Indicator
Favours RoostersGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Roosters hold a 13-point edge: 35W–21L (63%) vs Dolphins's 6W–6L (50%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away.
ELO–Market Disagreement
Dolphins hold the ELO advantage (1481 vs 1473), but the market favours Roosters (@1.85).
The model sides with the market, other factors override the ELO gap.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
53%
Roosters predicted to win by 5 points
Predicted total: 45 · Line: +5.2
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