# Rabbitohs v Knights — NRL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Rabbitohs 4 – 30 Knights

_Knights put Rabbitohs to the sword._

Half time: 0 – 18 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Rabbitohs 31% / Knights 69% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sat, 03 May, 03:00 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Rabbitohs: Isaiah Tass (66') · Knights: Fletcher Sharpe (5' 1st Tipped 🎯), Fletcher Sharpe (9' 1st Tipped 🎯), Jack Cogger (13'), Bradman Best (46' Tipped ⚡), Fletcher Sharpe (61' 1st Tipped 🎯)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Knights | 69% | Won |
| Rabbitohs | 31% | Lost |

Model call: **Correct** · Margin: 7.1 predicted → 26 actual · Markets hit: 2/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**South Sydney Rabbitohs vs Newcastle Knights Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Rabbitohs 4–30 Knights in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twelve minutes in, this one was already over as a contest. Fletcher Sharpe crossed twice inside the first eight minutes and Jack Cogger added a third soon after, and just like that the Knights led 16-0 before the Rabbitohs had settled into the game at all. Final score: Knights 30, Rabbitohs 4. Nobody who saw that opening quarter of an hour will be surprised.

The Rabbitohs went to the sheds down 0-18 and never got closer. Bradman Best stretched it further just after the break, Sharpe completed his hat-trick at the 60th minute, and Isaiah Tass's try five minutes later was purely for the record books. A 26-point margin, and the game was decided long before that.

Strip out the scoreboard and the Rabbitohs actually handled the ball better. They completed at 79% to the Knights' 73%, and coughed up only 11 errors to 14. On another day that discipline wins you the arm wrestle. It didn't matter here, because the Knights were doing the damage that counts: 11 line breaks to 2, and 49 tackle busts to 29. You can hang onto the ball all day, but if the other side keeps running through your line, it's academic.

Defence was the other half of the story. The Rabbitohs missed 49 tackles against the Knights' 29, an effective tackle rate of 83.6% against 90.3%. That gap, more than the completion numbers, is where 26 points come from. Run metres told the same tale in miniature, 2,175 to 1,995 in the Knights' favour, with post-contact metres also going their way, 684 to 666.

Individually it was Fletcher Sharpe's afternoon, three tries inside 60 minutes, with Cogger and Best chiming in either side of the break. Tass's try was the lone bright spot for a Rabbitohs side that otherwise had nothing to show for their share of possession, which finished close to even at 51-49.

The pre-match numbers explained plenty of this before a ball was kicked. The halves matchup was never close, 638 to 1161 in the Knights' favour, and that gulf in the pivotal positions showed up everywhere the Knights wanted it to: the line breaks, the tackle busts, the tries. Add in edges at forwards (1028 to 1187) and backs (903 to 997), and the physical mismatch was there in the ratings long before it was there on the scoreboard.

Form lines had flagged the Knights as underdone, no wins in their last five and an average margin of minus 18. None of that showed up here. Alphr's model backed the Knights at 69% and got the winner right, but picked the margin at 7.1 points against an actual gap of 26, one of the bigger margin misses you'll see. Knights covered the 2.5-point line comfortably, and the wider read on this match finished 5 from 16. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 0 | 4 | 4 |
| Knights | 18 | 12 | 30 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| **51%** | Possession | 49% |
| **79%** | Completion rate | 73% |
| 1,995 | Run metres | **2,175** |
| 666 | Post-contact metres | **684** |
| 2 | Line breaks | **11** |
| 29 | Tackle breaks | **49** |
| 11 | Offloads | **12** |
| 83.6% | Effective tackle % | **90.3%** |
| 49 | Missed tackles | **29** |
| **11** | Errors | 14 |
| 3 | Penalties conceded | 3 |
| 594 | Kick metres | **650** |

**Model Report Card**

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. Knights led 0–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 5/16 on this match. Knights covered the 2.5-point line.

**Referee Watch**

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (72 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 13 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Knights's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Knights have a 58% win rate under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 4' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 8' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 0-10 · win-prob swing -4 pts
- 12' Try — Jack Cogger (Knights) — 0-16 · win-prob swing -3 pts
- 46' Try — Bradman Best (Knights) — 0-22 · win-prob swing -1 pts
- 60' Try — Fletcher Sharpe (Knights) — 0-28 · win-prob swing -0 pts
- 65' Try — Isaiah Tass (Rabbitohs) — 4-30 · win-prob swing +0 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Knights to win @ $2.15 (edge +8.1%) — model probability 69.0% — result: WON
- **Line / Spread:** Knights -2.5 @ $1.91 (edge +8.1%) — result: WON
- **Total (Over/Under):** Over 44.5 @ $1.91 (edge +1.2%) — result: LOST
- Predicted margin: Knights by 7 · Predicted total: 46

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

The model is firm on Knights here: 69% to see off Rabbitohs. The ratings say otherwise: Rabbitohs sit 55 ELO points clear, 1412 to 1357, so the model is backing Knights against the ratings gap. Form leans Rabbitohs' way: 2 from their last 5, against 0 for Knights.

The factors split evenly, which is why the margin stays tight. The margin model has Knights by 7.1, with the two sides combining for about 46. Knights to win, and win clearly. The model isn't hedging.

Knights have won 6 of the last 10 between these two, and Knights took the most recent meeting 20-10 in 2026 Round 28.

Knights have lost 9 straight; Knights have leaked 190 in their last four. Rabbitohs have won 3 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Rabbitohs 11th against Knights 15th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Rabbitohs 4 · Knights 6 |
| Last meeting | Knights 20-10 |
| Rabbitohs last 4 | WWWL · 86 for, 70 against |
| Rabbitohs at home | 6-6 this season |
| Knights last 4 | LLLL · 42 for, 190 against |
| Knights away | 4-8 this season |
| Ladder | Rabbitohs 11th · Knights 15th |
| Finals odds | Rabbitohs 0% · Knights 0% |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Knights

**Liam Kennedy** — 72 career games since 2018.

| Team | Record under Liam Kennedy | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 6W–7L | 46% |
| Knights | 7W–5L | 58% |

Avg total: 46.8 pts · Home win %: 53% · Home bias: Neutral

Knights hold a 12-point edge: 7W–5L (58%) vs Rabbitohs's 6W–7L (46%). Games average 46.8 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.

Penalises away teams more, 5 against home vs 6 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.2 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -0.7.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Rabbitohs | Stat | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| 2.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 0.0 |
| 16.0pts | Avg Score | 7.2pts |
| 22.4pts | Avg Conceded | 25.2pts |
| -6.4pts | Avg Margin | -18.0pts |
| 1487.6m | Run Metres | 1572.8m |
| 3.2 | Line Breaks | 2.6 |
| 349.8 | Tackles | 403.6 |
| 11.0 | Errors | 15.8 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Rabbitohs | 2W–3L | 16.0 |
| Knights | 0W–5L | 7.2 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Knights lead 4-1

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | FW1 | Rabbitohs | 10 – 20 | Knights |
| 2026 | R19 | Rabbitohs | 26 – 24 | Knights |
| 2026 | R9 | Knights | 42 – 38 | Rabbitohs |
| 2024 | R25 | Rabbitohs | 16 – 36 | Knights |
| 2023 | R25 | Knights | 29 – 10 | Rabbitohs |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Rabbitohs' best path is the middle: NRL's 14th-ranked middle attack (1.25 tries/game) runs at a Knights defence ranked 13th there (1.86 conceded/game). Key man: Gray, 4 tries in that channel this season.
- Knights' best path is the right edge: NRL's 16th-ranked right edge attack (0.71 tries/game) runs at a Rabbitohs defence ranked 9th there (1.13 conceded/game). Key man: Schiller, 4 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 0.5/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 0.88/g (def 2nd (strong)) | 0.71/g (att 15th (weak)) · concedes 1/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Middle | 1.25/g (att 14th (weak)) · concedes 1.63/g (def 10th) | 0.57/g (att 17th (weak)) · concedes 1.86/g (def 13th (weak)) |
| Right | 1.13/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.13/g (def 9th) | 0.71/g (att 16th (weak)) · concedes 0.71/g (def 3rd (strong)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 11th |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 6 | 3 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1.4/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 169m/g | 192m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 2.3/g | 5/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.8/g | 0.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 85.7% | 88% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 14th (weak) | 17th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 4th (strong) | 2nd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 14 · 15 | 9 · 12 |
| Try Assists | 0.5/g | 1/g |
| Run Metres | 635m/g | 751m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 9.8/g | 24.3/g |
| Line Breaks | 1.6/g | 2.6/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 77% | 77.5% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Rabbitohs | Knights |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 6th (strong) | 16th (weak) |
| Defence rank | 13th (weak) | 7th |
| Tries scored · conceded | 5 · 8 | 1 · 4 |
| Try Assists | 0.3/g | 0.3/g |
| Run Metres | 442m/g | 495m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 7.5/g | 5.7/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.4/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 88.9% | 90% |

**Who scores on Knights** — Halfbacks 0.24/g (lg 0.21) +14% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14% · Props 0.17/g (lg 0.16) +6%
**Who scores on Rabbitohs** — Five-Eighths 0.41/g (lg 0.27) +52% · Halfbacks 0.25/g (lg 0.21) +19% · Hookers 0.16/g (lg 0.14) +14%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Rabbitohs** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jye Gray | FB | 4 in 8g | 6/10g (0·2·0·1·0·1·1·1·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 47% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.70 AI 47% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 2 | Bayleigh Bentley-Hape | WG | 1 in 2g | 1/3g (0·0·1) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 33% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.30 AI 30% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $11.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Euan Aitken | CE | 1 in 3g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/11g | 7/24g | 18% | — | — |
| 4 | Campbell Graham | CE | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 9/13g | 26% | — | — |
| 5 | Isaiah Tass | WG | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 2/4g | 28% | — | 🏉 66' |
| 7 | Jayden Sullivan | HB | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 3/7g | 14% | — | — |
| 8 | Sean Keppie | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/7g | 6% | — | — |
| 9 | Peter Mamouzelos | HK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 8% | — | — |
| 10 | Tevita Tatola | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0) | 3/7g | 0/15g | 10% | — | — |
| 11 | Keaon Koloamatangi | 2R | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/11g | 14% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Tallis Duncan | 2R | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/2g | 0/2g | 6% | — | — |
| 13 | Jai Arrow | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/7g | 2/32g | 8% | — | — |
| 14 | Liam Le Blanc | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 0% | — | — |
| 15 | Lachlan Hubner | INT | 0 in 5g | 0/9g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/3g | 0% | — | — |
| 16 | Davvy Moale | INT | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 1/7g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Fletcher Myers | INT | 0 in 3g | 2/9g (0·0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/0g | 11% | — | — |

**Knights** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Kalyn Ponga | FB | 0 in 7g | 2/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/5g | 3/6g | 24% | — | — |
| 2 | James Schiller | WG | 4 in 6g | 6/10g (2·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1·1) | 0/0g | 0/4g | 30% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.99 AI 62% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $9.00 AI 12% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Dane Gagai | CE | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/10g | 7/23g | 20% | — | — |
| 4 | Bradman Best | CE | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·0·1·1·0·0·0·0) | 4/5g | 3/9g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.75 AI 30% ✓ Scored | 🏉 46' |
| 5 | Greg Marzhew | WG | 2 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/4g | 1/4g | 40% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.00 AI 28% ✗ No try | — |
| 6 | Fletcher Sharpe | 5/8 | 3 in 7g | 7/10g (3·0·1·1·0·0·0·1·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/0g | 48% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.70 AI 54% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 10% ✓ Scored first | 🏉 5' 9' 61' |
| 7 | Jack Cogger | HB | 0 in 5g | 2/10g (0·2·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 2/5g | 0/3g | 4% | — | 🏉 13' |
| 8 | Jacob Saifiti | PR | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 1/9g | 4% | — | — |
| 9 | Phoenix Crossland | HK | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/9g | 6% | — | — |
| 10 | Leo Thompson | PR | 0 in 6g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 0/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 11 | Dylan Lucas | 2R | 1 in 3g | 3/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 1/1g | 0/3g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.75 AI 40% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $15.00 AI 6% ✗ Not first | — |
| 12 | Kai Pearce-Paul | 2R | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/2g | 5% | — | — |
| 13 | Tyson Frizell | LK | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 5/16g | 1/17g | 12% | — | — |
| 14 | Jayden Brailey | INT | 0 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 2/8g | 6% | — | — |
| 15 | Mat Croker | INT | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 1/4g | 6% | — | — |
| 16 | Adam Elliott | INT | 0 in 3g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/12g | 1/11g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Brodie Jones | INT | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1) | 0/3g | 2/7g | 10% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Rabbitohs 1412 · Knights 1357 · ELO difference: 55 in favour of Rabbitohs

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Rabbitohs | Knights | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1028 (best 1200) | 1187 (best 1278) | Knights +159 |
| Backs | 903 (best 1047) | 997 (best 1081) | Knights +94 |
| Halves | 638 (best 638) | 1161 (best 1161) | Knights +523 |
| Hooker | 1148 | 1200 | Knights +52 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Knights |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Knights |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Knights |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Rabbitohs |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | — |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Rabbitohs |

**Model Confidence: 69%** — Knights predicted to win by 7 points · Predicted total: 46 pts

**Record:** 2/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)