Win Probability
AI Game Review
Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here, predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. Knights led 0–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Liam Kennedy officiated this match (65 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 13 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 47. Knights's victory aligns with Liam Kennedy's historical trend, Knights have a 55% win rate under this referee.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Rabbitohs
31%
Knights
69%
AI Match Overview
Knights are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Rabbitohs carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1412 vs 1357). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Knights by 7.1 points with a combined total of 46.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
2 ACTIVE EDGESEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Knights to Win @2.15
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.1%
Line / Spread
Knights -2.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+8.1%
Total Points
Over 44.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
+1.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Rabbitohs | W W L L L | 16.0 |
Knights | L L L L L | 7.2 |
Avg Conceded
22.4
Rabbitohs
25.2
Knights
Avg Margin
-6.4
Rabbitohs
-18.0
Knights
Run Metres
1488
Rabbitohs
1573
Knights
Line Breaks
3.2
Rabbitohs
2.6
Knights
Referee Indicator
Favours KnightsLiam Kennedy
65 career games · since 2018
Win rate when Liam Kennedy refs each team (vs any opponent)
Knights hold a 13-point edge: 6W–5L (55%) vs Rabbitohs's 5W–7L (42%). Games average 46.6 pts, above the league norm, suggesting a free-flowing style.
Avg Total
46.6 pts
Home Win %
52%
Home Bias
Neutral
Pen / Game
11.1
Sin Bins / Gm
0.40
SB Away %
58%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Penalises away teams more, 5.2 against home vs 5.9 against away. Rabbitohs get a +0.4 penalty advantage under Liam Kennedy vs Knights's -1.0.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
69%
Knights predicted to win by 7 points
Predicted total: 46 · Line: -7.1
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