NRL | Round 9

alphr.com.au

SOU
Rabbitohs
VS
NEW
Knights
SUNCORP STADIUM, BRISBANE • SATURDAY 3 MAY, 3:00 PM
🏁

AI Referee Insights

Liam Kennedy officiated this match (59 career games). The combined score of 34 points was 11 points below Liam Kennedy's career average of 45. Knights bucked the trend — Rabbitohs historically win 56% of games under Liam Kennedy, but couldn't convert that edge today.

Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis

AI Game Review

Our model correctly predicted Knights to win at 69% probability. The margin model missed here — predicting 7.1 but the actual margin was 26 points. Knights led 0–18 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 26. The model went 2/3 on this match. The 1-12 margin band call landed.

Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis

Win Probability

AI Win Probability

69%KnightsFavourite

Rabbitohs

31%

Knights

69%

AI Match Overview

Knights are clear favourites here at 69%, with our model expecting a comfortable victory over Rabbitohs. Both sides are evenly matched across the key prediction factors, which explains the tight margin between them. Rabbitohs carry a 55-point ELO rating advantage (1412 vs 1357). Recent form favours Rabbitohs with 2 wins from their last 5 compared to 0 for Knights. The margin model predicts Knights by 7.1 points with a combined total of 46.

Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis

Edge Analysis

2 ACTIVE EDGES

Each market is predicted by an independent model — H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.

H2H Recommendation

Knights to Win @2.15

Winner ✓

Edge

+8.1%

Line / Spread

Knights -2.5 @1.91

Winner ✓

Edge

+8.1%

Total Points

Over 44.5 @1.91

Lost ✗

Edge

+1.2%

Form & History

TeamLast 5Avg Pts
Rabbitohs
WWLLL
16.0
Knights
LLLLL
7.2

Avg Conceded

22.4

Rabbitohs

25.2

Knights

Avg Margin

-6.4

Rabbitohs

-18.0

Knights

Run Metres

1488

Rabbitohs

1573

Knights

Line Breaks

3.2

Rabbitohs

2.6

Knights

Referee IndicatorAI
Favours Rabbitohs
Liam Kennedy59 games since 2018

Each team's win rate when Liam Kennedy refs their game (vs any opponent, all seasons)

SOU
56%5W 4L
NEW
44%4W 5L

Rabbitohs hold a 12‑point edge: 5W–4L (56%) vs Knights's 4W–5L (44%) across all games Liam Kennedy has refereed for each side. His games average 45.5 pts, sitting close to the league average.

Avg Total

45.5 pts

Home Win %

53%

Home Bias

Neutral

H2H History (Last 5)Rabbitohs lead 3-2
Sep 2024SOU 16 - 36 NEW
Sep 2023SOU 10 - 29 NEW
Jul 2022SOU 40 - 28 NEW
Jun 2021SOU 24 - 10 NEW
Aug 2020SOU 46 - 20 NEW
Prediction BreakdownPure Alpha Model

📊Team ELO Ratings

SOU
1412Overall1357
NEW
ELO difference: +55 in favour of Rabbitohs

🏈Positional Matchups

Player ELO aggregated by position group — higher = stronger unit

1028Forwards1187
Best: 1200NEW +159Best: 1278
903Backs997
Best: 1047NEW +94Best: 1081
638Halves1161
Best: 638NEW +523Best: 1161
1148Hooker1200
NEW +52

📈Recent Form (Last 5)

SOU
Stat
NEW
2.0
Wins (Last 5)
0.0
16.0pts
Avg Score
7.2pts
22.4pts
Avg Conceded
25.2pts
-6.4pts
Avg Margin
-18.0pts
1487.6m
Run Metres
1572.8m
3.2
Line Breaks
2.6
349.8
Tackles
403.6
11.0
Errors
15.8

🔑Key Prediction Factors

What the model weighted most in this prediction

1
ELO Difference14.0%
Rabbitohs
2
Forward Pack12.0%
Knights
3
Backline Quality10.0%
Knights
4
Halves Control9.0%
Knights
5
Recent Win Rate9.0%
Rabbitohs
6
Referee Tendency7.0%
7
Venue Advantage7.0%
Rabbitohs

Model Confidence

69%

Knights predicted to win by 7 points

Predicted total: 46 · Line: -7.1

2/3 match predictions correct
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