# Panthers v Broncos — NRL Round 9 2025 AI Prediction by Alphr

## Full Time: Panthers 32 – 8 Broncos

_Panthers claw past Broncos._

Half time: 20 – 8 · Alphr AI pre-game win probability: Panthers 47% / Broncos 53% · Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane · Sun, 04 May, 04:05 pm AEST

**Try Scorers** — Panthers: Izack Tago (13' Tipped ⚡), Luron Patea (36'), Nathan Cleary (39'), Thomas Jenkins (44'), Thomas Jenkins (53') · Broncos: Ben Hunt (9' 1st)

### Match Winner — AI Prediction Market (resolved)

| Team | Pre-game AI win probability | Result |
|---|---|---|
| Broncos | 53% | Lost |
| Panthers | 47% | Won |

Model call: **Missed** · Margin: 3.0 predicted → 24 actual · Markets hit: 1/3

_AI win probability priced pre-game · Markets hit = core betting markets._

### Full-Time Report

**Penrith Panthers vs Brisbane Broncos Prediction & Tips | NRL Round 9 2025**

_By Ben Dunlop · Published: 28 Feb 2026, 07:36 pm · Last updated: 24 July 2026, 12:42 pm_

Panthers 32–8 Broncos in NRL Round 9 at Suncorp Stadium, Brisbane. Here's how the result stacked up against the model's call, with the win-probability story and where the value landed.

Twenty to eight at the break, and nothing about the second half suggested the Broncos were about to claw it back. Panthers took that lead and turned it into a 32-8 flogging by full time at Suncorp Stadium, adding three more tries after the interval while Broncos managed nothing at all.

The start didn't hint at any of this. Ben Hunt crossed inside eight minutes to put Broncos up 4-0, and for five minutes that looked like it might set the tone. It didn't. Izack Tago hit back at the 13th minute and Panthers never trailed again. Luron Patea's try just before the half-hour mark and Nathan Cleary's in the 39th turned a tight contest into a laugher, and Panthers walked to the sheds up 20-8.

Whatever adjustments Broncos made at the break, the scoreboard says none of it worked. Thomas Jenkins crossed twice, at 44 and 53 minutes, and by the hour mark the margin had blown out past anything the halftime score suggested was coming. Broncos simply stopped scoring, full stop, for the remaining 37 minutes of football.

The stat sheet tells you why Panthers were able to control it the way they did. They ran for 1,794 metres to 1,596, completed at 82% against 78%, and made only 10 errors to the Broncos' 11. Line breaks went 7 to 4 their way too. Broncos were the more damaging side in the collision, breaking 47 tackles to 35 and taking 568 post-contact metres to 535, but busting tackles doesn't count for much when you're not finishing possessions with points.

Defence was where it really came apart for Brisbane. Panthers missed 47 tackles to the Broncos' 35 and still won by 24, which says plenty about how one-sided territory and possession were. Panthers held 53% of the ball and kicked for 787 metres to 659, and against a side that couldn't crack the line more than four times, that sort of control was always going to grind Broncos down.

The form line coming in had Broncos as the healthier side, three wins from five against Panthers' one, and a scoring average of 28.4 to 19.6. The positional ratings backed that up too, rating Broncos stronger up front, in the backs and at hooker. None of it showed up on the day. Panthers' halves edge, 1252 to 1207, proved the one number that actually mattered, with Cleary in the middle of it.

Alphr's model had Broncos favourites at 53% and picked them to win by 3 in a 44-point game. Panthers won by 24 in a 40-point one. The total was close enough, within four points, and the under on 47.5 landed. The head-to-head and the margin didn't, not by a long way. Wins and misses, all of it.

**Scoring by Half**

| Team | H1 | H2 | T |
|---|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 20 | 12 | 32 |
| Broncos | 8 | 0 | 8 |

**Key Match Stats**

| Panthers | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| **53%** | Possession | 47% |
| **82%** | Completion rate | 78% |
| **1,794** | Run metres | 1,596 |
| 535 | Post-contact metres | **568** |
| **7** | Line breaks | 4 |
| 35 | Tackle breaks | **47** |
| **11** | Offloads | 10 |
| 84.7% | Effective tackle % | **88.8%** |
| 47 | Missed tackles | **35** |
| **10** | Errors | 11 |
| **3** | Penalties conceded | 4 |
| **787** | Kick metres | 659 |

**Model Report Card**

Panthers defied the model's 53% prediction for Broncos, a notable result. The margin model missed here, predicting 3.0 but the actual margin was 24 points. Total score prediction of 44 was close to the actual 40, within 4 points. Panthers led 20–8 at the break and pulled away in the second half to win by 24. The model went 2/16 on this match. The under 47.5 total call was correct.

**Referee Watch**

Ashley Klein officiated this match (422 career games). The 40-point combined total was right in line with Ashley Klein's career average of 43. Panthers bucked the trend, Broncos historically win 57% of games under Ashley Klein, but couldn't convert that edge today. Panthers's home victory fits Ashley Klein's profile, home teams win 60% of the time under this referee.

**Key moments (momentum model)**

- 8' Try — Ben Hunt (Broncos) — 0-4 · win-prob swing -5 pts
- 13' Try — Izack Tago (Panthers) — 4-6 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 36' Try — Luron Patea (Panthers) — 12-8 · win-prob swing +5 pts
- 39' Try — Nathan Cleary (Panthers) — 18-8 · win-prob swing +3 pts
- 44' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 24-8 · win-prob swing +2 pts
- 53' Try — Thomas Jenkins (Panthers) — 30-8 · win-prob swing +1 pts

_Official NRL match stats · Generated by Alphr's model_

### Edge Analysis — the model's pre-game markets

- **Head to Head:** Broncos to win @ $1.67 (edge -12.8%) — model probability 53.4% — result: LOST
- **Line / Spread:** Broncos +3.5 @ $1.91 (edge -12.8%) — result: LOST
- **Total (Over/Under):** Under 47.5 @ $1.91 (edge +10.3%) — result: WON
- Predicted margin: Broncos by 3 · Predicted total: 44

### Match Preview (pre-match read)

Line ball between Panthers and Broncos. The model can't split them, landing on Broncos at 53%. The heaviest factor is the ratings gap: Broncos sit 51 ELO points clear, 1533 to 1482. Form leans Broncos' way: 3 from their last 5, against 1 for Panthers.

Broncos own the matchup too, leading 4 of 7 factors including ELO Difference, Forward Pack and Backline Quality. The margin model has Broncos by 3.0, with the two sides combining for about 44. Coin-flip on the win, so the value is where this one gets settled.

Panthers have won 7 of the last 10 between these two, and Broncos took the most recent meeting 14-12 in 2026 Round 20.

Panthers have put up 124 points in four games. Broncos have won 7 straight. Broncos have won 5 games this season after trailing at half-time.

On the ladder it's Panthers 17th against Broncos 5th.

**By the numbers**

|  |  |
|---|---|
| H2H (last 10) | Panthers 7 · Broncos 3 |
| Last meeting | Broncos 14-12 |
| Panthers last 4 | WWWL · 124 for, 70 against |
| Panthers at home | 6-6 this season |
| Broncos last 4 | WWWW · 101 for, 78 against |
| Broncos away | 8-6 this season |
| Ladder | Panthers 17th · Broncos 5th |
| Finals odds | Both locked into the eight |

_Pre-match read · Alphr model_

### Referee Indicator — Favours Broncos

**Ashley Klein** — 422 career games since 2010.

| Team | Record under Ashley Klein | Win rate |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 30W–28L | 52% |
| Broncos | 29W–22L | 57% |

Avg total: 43.4 pts · Home win %: 60% · Home bias: Leans home

Broncos hold a 5-point edge: 29W–22L (57%) vs Panthers's 30W–28L (52%). Home teams win 60% of his matches (vs ~52% league avg).

Panthers get a +-0.2 penalty advantage under Ashley Klein vs Broncos's -0.6.

### Recent Form (Last 5)

| Panthers | Stat | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| 1.0 | Wins (Last 5) | 3.0 |
| 19.6pts | Avg Score | 28.4pts |
| 23.6pts | Avg Conceded | 20.0pts |
| -4.0pts | Avg Margin | 8.4pts |
| 1765.6m | Run Metres | 1441.6m |
| 4.6 | Line Breaks | 4.2 |
| 368.4 | Tackles | 327.6 |
| 12.8 | Errors | 10.6 |

### Form & History

| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
| Panthers | 1W–4L | 19.6 |
| Broncos | 3W–2L | 28.4 |

### H2H History (Last 5) — Panthers lead 3-2

| Season | Round | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | R20 | Panthers | 12 – 14 | Broncos |
| 2026 | R1 | Broncos | 0 – 26 | Panthers |
| 2025 | PF | Broncos | 16 – 14 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R18 | Broncos | 6 – 14 | Panthers |
| 2024 | R3 | Panthers | 34 – 12 | Broncos |

### Positional Matchup

_Season-to-date production per game with league-wide attack/defence tiers (17 teams)._

**Field Matchup** — where one team attacks vs where the other concedes:
- Panthers' best path is the right edge: NRL's 13th-ranked right edge attack (0.88 tries/game) runs at a Broncos defence ranked 15th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Tago, 3 tries in that channel this season.
- Broncos' best path is the left edge: NRL's 1st-ranked left edge attack (2.25 tries/game) runs at a Panthers defence ranked 13th there (1.5 conceded/game). Key man: Arthars, 10 tries in that channel this season.

| Channel | Panthers | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Left | 1.25/g (att 8th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 13th (weak)) | 2.25/g (att 1st (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 7th) |
| Middle | 1.63/g (att 7th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 8th) | 1.88/g (att 3rd (strong)) · concedes 1.13/g (def 3rd (strong)) |
| Right | 0.88/g (att 13th (weak)) · concedes 1.38/g (def 13th (weak)) | 1/g (att 9th) · concedes 1.5/g (def 15th (weak)) |

**Attack Spine** (Halfback · Five-Eighth · Hooker)

|  | Panthers | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 12th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 3rd (strong) | 3rd (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 3 · 3 | 8 · 3 |
| Try Assists | 1/g | 1.8/g |
| Run Metres | 196m/g | 102m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 3.3/g | 2.8/g |
| Line Breaks | 0.6/g | 0.8/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 86.1% | 87.1% |

**Outside Backs** (Fullback · Wingers · Centres)

|  | Panthers | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 8th | 2nd (strong) |
| Defence rank | 15th (weak) | 6th (strong) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 19 · 24 | 26 · 16 |
| Try Assists | 1.5/g | 1.4/g |
| Run Metres | 726m/g | 607m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 14.9/g | 17/g |
| Line Breaks | 3.4/g | 3/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 79.4% | 80.3% |

**Forwards** (Props · 2nd Rows · Lock)

|  | Panthers | Broncos |
|---|---|---|
| Attack rank | 10th | 10th |
| Defence rank | 11th | 14th (weak) |
| Tries scored · conceded | 4 · 6 | 4 · 9 |
| Try Assists | 0.4/g | 0.5/g |
| Run Metres | 466m/g | 606m/g |
| Tackle Breaks | 6.3/g | 11.4/g |
| Line Breaks | 1/g | 1.1/g |
| Tackle Efficiency | 92% | 90.7% |

**Who scores on Broncos** — Locks 0.14/g (lg 0.11) +27% · Centres 0.71/g (lg 0.67) +6% · Hookers 0.14/g (lg 0.14) +0%
**Who scores on Panthers** — Hookers 0.15/g (lg 0.14) +7% · Fullbacks 0.44/g (lg 0.44) +0% · 2nd Rows 0.37/g (lg 0.45) -18%

_Tries conceded by position, last 3 seasons; positive = concedes above league average to that position._

### Try Scorer History — Who Crosses The Line

_Last 10 games, career record vs the opponent and at Suncorp Stadium. ⚡ = our AI backs them to score; 🎯 = our AI's first-try pick. 🏉 = scored in this game. Try % = share of games with a try, last 10 weighted double vs the 30 prior — historical frequency, not a market price._

**Panthers** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dylan Edwards | FB | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0) | 0/10g | 4/18g | 36% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 2 | Paul Alamoti | WG | 6 in 8g | 9/10g (2·1·1·1·2·0·0·0·2·0) | 0/1g | 0/4g | 38% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.07 AI 55% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $10.00 AI 8% ✗ Not first | — |
| 3 | Izack Tago | CE | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·1) | 3/5g | 3/9g | 32% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.35 AI 44% ✓ Scored; 🎯 First Try $14.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | 🏉 13' |
| 4 | Luke Garner | CE | 1 in 7g | 3/10g (2·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 3/7g | 2/10g | 18% | — | — |
| 5 | Thomas Jenkins | WG | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 14% | — | 🏉 44' 53' |
| 6 | Blaize Talagi | 5/8 | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·1) | 1/2g | 1/3g | 41% | ⚡ Anytime Try $4.30 AI 44% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $21.00 AI 5% ✗ Not first | — |
| 7 | Nathan Cleary | HB | 0 in 7g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 4/12g | 7/17g | 20% | — | 🏉 39' |
| 8 | Moses Leota | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/12g | 2/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Luke Sommerton | INT | 0 in 2g | 2/7g (0·1·0·0·1·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 29% | — | — |
| 10 | Liam Henry | INT | 1 in 7g | 1/10g (0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/2g | 0/2g | 9% | — | — |
| 12 | Liam Martin | 2R | 1 in 8g | 3/10g (1·1·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 2/17g | 26% | — | — |
| 13 | Isaah Yeo | LK | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/15g | 1/21g | 10% | — | — |
| 14 | Trent Toelau | HK | 0 in 1g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/0g | 9% | — | — |
| 15 | Isaiah Papali'i | 2R | 1 in 7g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·1·0) | 4/10g | 4/12g | 16% | — | — |
| 16 | Lindsay Smith | PR | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/4g | 0/5g | 8% | — | — |
| 17 | Mavrik Geyer | INT | 0 in 1g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/0g | 0/1g | 0% | — | — |

**Broncos** (team sheet)

| # | Player | Pos | 2025 | Last 10 | vs opp | Venue | Try % | Alphr play | This game |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Selwyn Cobbo | FB | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·3·1·0·0·0·1·0·0) | 1/6g | 27/45g | 36% | — | — |
| 2 | Deine Mariner | WG | 2 in 5g | 3/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·2) | 1/4g | 6/21g | 36% | — | — |
| 3 | Kotoni Staggs | CE | 1 in 5g | 5/10g (1·0·2·1·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 3/9g | 35/70g | 32% | — | — |
| 4 | Gehamat Shibasaki | CE | 5 in 8g | 5/10g (0·0·1·0·0·2·1·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 4/11g | 28% | ⚡ Anytime Try $2.50 AI 54% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $13.00 AI 7% ✗ Not first | — |
| 5 | Jesse Arthars | WG | 10 in 8g | 11/10g (0·1·1·3·1·0·2·1·1·1) | 1/6g | 16/42g | 46% | ⚡ Anytime Try $1.73 AI 68% ✗ No try; 🎯 First Try $8.00 AI 11% ✗ Not first | — |
| 6 | Ben Hunt | 5/8 | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/14g | 25/107g | 18% | — | 🏉 9' |
| 7 | Adam Reynolds | HB | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·1·0·0·1) | 1/18g | 8/51g | 24% | — | — |
| 8 | Patrick Carrigan | PR | 0 in 8g | 1/10g (1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/8g | 2/58g | 10% | — | — |
| 9 | Billy Walters | HK | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·1·0·1·1) | 0/6g | 8/44g | 24% | ⚡ Anytime Try $5.60 AI 41% ✗ No try | — |
| 10 | Payne Haas | PR | 1 in 8g | 1/10g (0·0·0·0·1·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 8/72g | 8% | — | — |
| 11 | Xavier Willison | 2R | 3 in 8g | 3/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·2·0·0·1) | 0/2g | 5/22g | 20% | ⚡ Anytime Try $3.60 AI 42% ✗ No try | — |
| 12 | Jordan Riki | INT | 0 in 5g | 1/10g (0·1·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/8g | 13/57g | 14% | — | — |
| 13 | Kobe Hetherington | LK | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/6g | 3/48g | 2% | — | — |
| 14 | Cory Paix | INT | 2 in 8g | 2/10g (0·0·1·0·0·1·0·0·0·0) | 0/5g | 4/34g | 14% | — | — |
| 15 | Corey Jensen | INT | 0 in 8g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 1/10g | 0/42g | 2% | — | — |
| 16 | Brendan Piakura | 2R | 0 in 6g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/3g | 3/19g | 10% | — | — |
| 17 | Jaiyden Hunt | INT | 0 in 4g | 0/10g (0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0·0) | 0/1g | 0/10g | 2% | — | — |

### Prediction Breakdown — Pure Alpha Model

**Team ELO Ratings** — Panthers 1482 · Broncos 1533 · ELO difference: 51 in favour of Broncos

**Positional Matchups** — lineup ELO by unit

| Unit | Panthers | Broncos | Edge |
|---|---|---|---|
| Forwards | 1016 (best 1272) | 1109 (best 1391) | Broncos +93 |
| Backs | 973 (best 1146) | 1014 (best 1107) | Broncos +41 |
| Halves | 1252 (best 1252) | 1207 (best 1207) | Panthers +46 |
| Hooker | 814 | 1149 | Broncos +335 |

**Key Prediction Factors** — what the model weighted most

| # | Factor | Weight | Favours |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ELO Difference | 14.0% | Broncos |
| 2 | Forward Pack | 12.0% | Broncos |
| 3 | Backline Quality | 10.0% | Broncos |
| 4 | Halves Control | 9.0% | Panthers |
| 5 | Recent Win Rate | 9.0% | Broncos |
| 6 | Referee Tendency | 7.0% | Panthers |
| 7 | Venue Advantage | 7.0% | Panthers |

**Model Confidence: 53%** — Broncos predicted to win by 3 points · Predicted total: 44 pts

**Record:** 1/3 match predictions correct

**Prediction by Alphr** (https://alphr.com.au) — free AI predictions for every AFL, NRL & Super League match, published before kick-off and never edited. Verified track record: https://alphr.com.au/accuracy

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Last updated: 2026-07-24 02:42 UTC (latest tip update)