Win Probability
AI Game Review
Wests Tigers defied the model's 62% prediction for Sharks, a notable upset. The predicted margin of 3.3 was reasonable against the actual 2-point result. Total score prediction of 40 was close to the actual 38, within 2 points. The model went 1/3 on this match. The over 25.5 total call was correct.
Model vs actual outcomes • Post-match analysis
AI Referee Insights
Grant Atkins officiated this match (318 career games). The combined score of 38 points was 5 points below Grant Atkins's career average of 43. Wests Tigers bucked the trend, Sharks historically win 53% of games under Grant Atkins, but couldn't convert that edge today. Grant Atkins averaged 14.4 penalties per game heading in, a whistle-heavy referee profile.
Based on referee career statistics • Post-match analysis
AI Win Probability
Wests Tigers
38%
Sharks
62%
AI Match Overview
Sharks hold the advantage at 62% win probability, though Wests Tigers are far from out of this at 38%. The model sees Sharks ahead on 4 of 7 key factors including ELO Difference, Backline Quality and Halves Control. Sharks carry a 206-point ELO rating advantage (1569 vs 1363). Recent form favours Sharks with 3 wins from their last 5 compared to 2 for Wests Tigers. The margin model predicts Sharks by 3.3 points with a combined total of 40.
Generated from model features • Pre-kick-off analysis
Edge Analysis
1 ACTIVE EDGEEach market is predicted by an independent model, H2H, margin, and totals may occasionally disagree.
H2H Recommendation
Sharks to Win @1.45
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.1%
Line / Spread
Sharks +6.5 @1.91
Lost ✗
Edge
-5.1%
Total Points
Over 25.5 @1.91
Winner ✓
Edge
+35.2%
Form & History
| Team | Last 5 | Avg Pts |
|---|---|---|
Wests Tigers | W W L L L | 24.0 |
Sharks | W W W L L | 22.2 |
Avg Conceded
26.4
Wests Tigers
17.6
Sharks
Avg Margin
-2.4
Wests Tigers
4.6
Sharks
Run Metres
1626
Wests Tigers
1766
Sharks
Line Breaks
4.0
Wests Tigers
4.0
Sharks
Referee Indicator
Favours SharksGrant Atkins
318 career games · since 2013
Win rate when Grant Atkins refs each team (vs any opponent)
Sharks hold a 12-point edge: 17W–15L (53%) vs Wests Tigers's 12W–17L (41%).
Avg Total
43.2 pts
Home Win %
54%
Home Bias
Leans home
Pen / Game
14.4
Sin Bins / Gm
0.29
SB Away %
56%
Avg Penalties Per Game
Penalty Advantage Under This Ref
Positive = opponent penalised more than your team
Grant Atkins averages 14.4 penalties per game, above the league norm. Expect frequent stoppages. Penalises away teams more, 6.8 against home vs 7.6 against away. Wests Tigers get a +-0.8 penalty advantage under Grant Atkins vs Sharks's -1.1.
📊Team ELO Ratings
🏈Positional Matchups
Player ELO aggregated by position group, higher = stronger unit
📈Recent Form (Last 5)
🔑Key Prediction Factors
What the model weighted most in this prediction
Model Confidence
62%
Sharks predicted to win by 3 points
Predicted total: 40 · Line: -3.3
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